Bad Pitching Performances, Book and Spring Training Updates
Thu, Jan 17, 2008
by Geoff Young
Three things on the agenda today. Four if you count “an almost fanatical devotion to the pope,” but I digress…
Bad Pitching Performances
I’ve got a new article up at Hardball Times: “Ten pitching seasons to forget.” Three of these guys once pitched for the Padres. One was Mark Davis, which gave me an excuse to revisit the Keltner List I did for him over at Baseball Think Factory many moons ago.
Steve Arlin merited an honorable mention for his 1973 season with the Padres. Before I added an innings-pitched component to the formula, Arlin made my top 10. Here’s the writeup on him that got left on the cutting-room floor:
#10: Steve Arlin, 1973 Padres
IP ERA BA OBP SLG ERA+ OPS+ 180 5.10 .279 .344 .440 68 131 That ERA doesn’t look too bad by today’s standards. Heck, 10 pitchers who qualified for an ERA title in 2007 had an ERA of 5.10 or worse. And that batting line is nothing special — about what Mark Ellis or Aubrey Huff did last year.
Context, of course, is everything. Arlin’s home park was San Diego Stadium, a pitcher’s haven, and the NL ERA in 1973 was 3.66. That year, 57 players qualified for the NL batting title. Only 14 of them had an OPS+ higher than what Arlin allowed.
Arlin compiled a career 34-67 record over six seasons with the Padres and Indians before retiring in 1974 at age 28. Among Padres fans, he is most famous for almost throwing a no-hitter against the Phillies in 1972.
Check out the entire article. It was a blast to research and write; hopefully that comes through when you read it.
Book Update
I’m very psyched to say that I’ve finished the first draft of the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual and sent chapters out for review. To those of you helping out, I offer my hearty thanks. If you didn’t receive something from me and think you should have (or would like to), please shoot me an email. I’m trying to keep it all together, but lately, everything is a blur sometimes.
The important point is that we’re almost there. Then I have to figure out how to promote the bejeezus out of this thing, because otherwise I’ll probably have to start looking for a real job soon.
But that’s a battle for another day.
Spring Training Update
This is really a non-update. Between the book and the THT article, I haven’t had a chance to sit down with my buddy and finalize plans, but it’s on my to-do list.
If you’ve expressed an interest in meeting with us in Peoria, first off, thank you. Second, I owe you an email with details, and I’ll get that to you… soon. How soon? I don’t know.
But I haven’t forgotten about you. Hang tight a little longer, and we’ll make it happen.
Other Stuff
Quick reminder: I’m doing the social networking thing, so come say hey to me on Facebook or MySpace. It’ll be fun. It’ll make me feel less like a creepy old guy…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
January 17, 2008 at 6:27 am
Geoff…have you worked with the Padres to get the book up for sale during spring training? Seems like a very logical place for it. Either in the gift shop or on the grounds somewhere?
January 17, 2008 at 7:32 am
Geoff…I’d be up for meeting at a game. I live in Phoenix and get to a lot of the games each March. I’ve been to every park at least once, so if you have any specific questions or need me to help out, I can do that. As for early or late in the month it makes no difference to me, but I have found that the games and the weather are usually better during the final week.
January 17, 2008 at 7:43 am
Hey G.Y. did you send the book to Matt and Mud last year? I think they plugged it on one of the broadcasts.
January 17, 2008 at 8:07 am
Interesting comments by Buster Olney today about the Padres.
http://insider.espn.go.com/esp.....ateChanged
(Subscription Required)
Here is one interesting snippit…
Towers is still sifting through the free agent market, through players like Reggie Sanders, and considering other deals. But no matter what the Padres get, it’s evident again that San Diego could be offensively challenged and that it must rely on its pitching.
Seems to run completely counter to the numbers last year.
January 17, 2008 at 8:52 am
5: I used to think Olney was pretty hip, but he’s made such an idiot of himself, in my eyes, this winter that I’ve completely changed my view of him. He’s not quite Dan Shaunessey when it comes to supporting Jim Rice for the HOF, but he’s pretty extreme, and now he doesn’t even understand how Petco distorted our offensive numbers last year. Yet another reason not to read ESPN.
January 17, 2008 at 8:54 am
Hey, a self-referential post. How about that? I hope it is obvious I was referring to post #4 in my post #5. I can handle things; I’m smart.
January 17, 2008 at 8:56 am
Congratulations on finishing the first draft, Geoff. As a fellow scribe (of sorts) I know what a slog the writing life can be. Moments of triumph and respite are few, enjoy the sense of accomplishment.
Looking forward to reading the finished project.
January 17, 2008 at 9:48 am
re: promote … can you get an early edition into the hands of someone at the NC Times? can/should you take out an ad in the NC Times and/or nctimes.com?
When should we start calling folks on XX radio and asking questions like “Geoff Young’s book says xyz, do you agree with that?”
January 17, 2008 at 10:08 am
CM posted this link in yesterday’s thread …
Q&A with Kevin Towers:
Towers could be adding outfielder
Padres GM considers supplementing roster
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....red=rss_sd
The line that interested me is this …
As of right now, Jeff DaVanon, Scott Hairston, Paul McAnulty, and Headley are all of our in-house candidates at the present time.
… and it pleased me that McAnulty is still a candidate … and I’m surprised that Vince Sinisi isn’t on that list as I thought what he did at AAA and during winter ball had put him in line for a roster spot …
January 17, 2008 at 11:48 am
FREE P-MAC!
January 17, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Geoff: The wife and I looked at it and I don’t think we’re gonna be able to do ST at all this year. Total bummer, but I think we’re shooting for an extended trip next year.
Thanks for doing the leg work to coordinate something this year. Hopefully we can take advantage of it next year.
January 17, 2008 at 12:58 pm
In case you haven’t heard, Mighty XX is saying they’ll have Chase Headley on for an interview @ 5:35 this evening…
January 17, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Re: 12 that should be great.
Philly Billy: Hi Chase have you ever been to Donovan’s?
Chase: No not yet, heard it was great.
Philly Billy: Well when you come into town We’ll have to take you there.
Daren: watchout Chase Billy is gonna stick you with the bill.
Philly Billy: hahaha
Daren: well chase it was good talking to you We’ll see you at S/T
Chase: um thanks
Philly Billy: good interview Daren, I think that kid has a ton of potential.
Daren: Well you know I dont like to name drop but Chase and I are pals.
They have the most unproductive interviews I have ever heard.
January 17, 2008 at 1:37 pm
There’s not a whole lot out there for free agent OF’ers — I think the best are Kenny Lofton, Corey Patterson, Bobby Kielty, Kevin Mench and Brad Wilkerson. I would think they’d want a right-handed hitter to cover for Edmonds and Giles, and someone to play defense because it might be a weakness next season. Corey Patterson might be the best defender, but he’s left-handed, would probably cost too much and might not go to a team where he won’t start. None of the righties is very good defensively (although I’m not 100% sure on Kielty). I guess if they think Davanon can play acceptable defense they don’t really need the 5th OF (or 4th, whatever) to be right-handed.
Personally, I’d like them to take a shot at either Wilkerson or Patterson as their upsides are much greater then anyone else’s plus they will have their uses if utilized correctly, especially Patterson.
January 17, 2008 at 2:19 pm
I liked this quote from Towers in the Olney blog:
The Padres had talked about a two-year deal for something in the range of $17-$18 million, but couldn’t get Cameron off his demand for a multiyear deal for a salary of $10 million a year. After Cameron signed a one-year, $7 million deal with Milwaukee last week, Towers phoned Brewers GM Doug Melvin and told him, “Hey, that’s a great deal for you guys.”
Also good stuff in there on Young and Wolf.
January 17, 2008 at 2:43 pm
It suddenly occurred to me (which I expressed on this blog last week) how bad the Padres outfield depth truly is. I wonder why Tower’s says “an outfielder will probably be added via trade rather than off the FA market”. Why does it matter ? The Padres should fill the gap any way they can. Are they willing to trade a top prospect for a even more expensive starting outfielder ? Probably not. Or will they settle for another DaVanon type in a low level deal ? Lets hope not. Lets get a Luis Gonzalez or Kenny Lofton in here…..not another Chip Ambres or another recycled 8 year minor leaguer.
January 17, 2008 at 2:55 pm
13 … ROTFLOL … well done, SteveC
What makes it most funny is that I don’t doubt it one bit! 
January 17, 2008 at 2:57 pm
16 … my understanding of why Towers is saying “trade rather than FA” is to communicate that he’s not interested in current FAs … he must think his “in-house candidates” (see #9) are better than the FAs availble … so all he is saying is that if he can trade for someone better than what he’s already got, then he’ll do it … methinks this is just ack’ing that McAnulty, for example, is not a likely candidate …
January 17, 2008 at 2:58 pm
According to multiple sources.
Brewers interested in Lofton.
Marlins/Mariners interested in Gonzalez.
Why are the Padres laying back so much in this area ? Why rush guys like Antonelli and Headley to the outfield (rather than season them at AAA) when the Pads are not in rebuilding mode but rather a heartbeat away from a flag.
January 17, 2008 at 3:01 pm
my understanding of why Towers is saying “trade rather than FA” is to communicate that he’s not interested in current FAs … he must think his “in-house candidates” (see #9) are better than the FAs availble
- Towers is full of B.S on this one….he is spinning this one and this Towers spin nauseates me a bit. What legitimate “in house” candidates is he referring to ?
January 17, 2008 at 3:21 pm
20 … see his list of in-house candidates in #9 …
OT … Chicken update … http://www.cnbc.com/id/22570982 … link comes compliments of GasLampBall …
January 17, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Well, the in-house candidates are certainly better then Luis Gonzalez. I’m not sure that Lofton would fit in here, he’d be OK as a backup I guess if Edmonds went down but I doubt that he’d sign a deal where he’d just pinch-hit and hope for an injury. There’s only 5 true outfielders on the 40 man roster: Edmonds, Giles, Hairston, Macias, and McAnulty although Crabbe and Headley are potential OF’ers. I’m hoping this year they carry 14 position players the entire season — it was a total waste to carry 12 pitchers most of the season like they did last year.
January 17, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Macias, Crabee, and PMAC are better “in house” options than proven vets like Lofton and Gonzalez ?
January 17, 2008 at 3:50 pm
22/23 … and as I’ve said before, there’s also Vince Sinisi … he strikes me as a viable fillin …
OT … here’s an interesting BP STAT OF THE DAY
Bottom 5 2007 NL Catchers, by VORP
Player, Team, EqA, VORP
Kelly Stinnett, SLN, .127, -8.0
Koyie Hill, CHN, .167, -7.4
Michael Barrett, SDN, .170, -7.1
Henry Blanco, CHN, .117, -6.1
Rob Bowen, CHN, -.098, -5.7
… yuck!
January 17, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Considering the cost, they are a lot better then Luis Gonzalez (they might be better hitters then Gonzalez now also). I don’t know if they are any better then Lofton, but I doubt that he would come here to sit on the bench. However, Lofton turns 41 this season so I wonder how much longer he can keep it up. As I said before, I don’t think they need a left-handed batter for the outfield, they need either a right-handed hitter or a good defender (preferably both) and Lofton and Gonzalez don’t fit in either of those categories.
January 17, 2008 at 3:59 pm
20: The difference between Gonzalez/Lofton and Headley, who is the most likely in-house starter, isn’t big enough that we need to spend 5 million or more on them. If we trade for an OF, I’d expect it to be a clearly better player and the financial terms to be favorable.
I’m a lot less worried about corner OF than the 4th and 5th rotation spots.
23: No, but Macias, Crabbe, and PMac don’t have any choice about being a backup. Lofton and Gonzalez do.
January 17, 2008 at 4:16 pm
#26 I disagree with your basic premise. The difference is indeed worth an extra 5 million dollars. Especially when it means winning a flag.
January 17, 2008 at 4:24 pm
I believe that Luis Gonzalez has one to two more years of production left. If the Macias, Crabbe, and PMac lot come within 10 miles of the kind of year that Luis Gonzalez or for that matter Kenny Lofton had, for example, last year I will leap for joy. Let’s not totally discount the fact that the conservative Padres management modes has some negative blowback possibilities…you can’t always count on the “trade for an OF, I’d expect it to be a clearly better player and the financial terms to be favorable” hand to come up aces. I guess the Mariners or Brewers are just plain stupid to pay Luis Gonzalez a multi million dollar contract ? Not necessarily.
January 17, 2008 at 4:30 pm
#23 But your second point is an important key to perhaps balance out my strong opinion….of course, a guy like Gonzo does not want to sit a whole lot…he wants some assurances that he will be penciled in 5 days a week.
January 17, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Luis Gonzalez would probably hit around 260/330/400 for the Padres — that’s about the same as the leftfielders hit last season. I’m not sure exactly why that would be worth anything, much less $5m plus. Now that might be better then what the Padres have next season but he’s just not a game changer anymore. Why spend money on an average player?
January 17, 2008 at 4:50 pm
27: Luis Gonzalez is a sub-800 OPS bat with mediocre defense in LF. Lofton adds speed, but he’s still just a 750 OPS bat in Petco. They’re not likely at all to be the difference between winning the division and not. Headley and Hairston have good odds of matching that production, with upside the old-timers can’t match.
28: Why are you focusing on 3 players (Macias, Crabbe, PMac) who aren’t likely to be starting OF? That’s like saying that Jared Wells is going to be our 5th starter. The corner OF for SD are currently some combination of Giles, Hairston, and Headley. Crabbe will be lucky to make the team as the 25th man. Macias and PMac will be lucky to sniff the majors.
No, you can’t count on a trade to work out. Same thing for FA signings, though. Gonzalez could go Steve Finley on us.
January 17, 2008 at 5:12 pm
I just don’t see Luis Gonzalez and/or Kenny Lofton as difference makers in anyone’s pennant race next year, let alone for a team which plays in Petco (kills LH offense and offense in general; has a huge OF expanse which requires a strong arm and young legs).
January 17, 2008 at 5:47 pm
I’ll agree with JP that a few million bucks could be well spent and the difference between the playoffs and not. But I’d spend it on somebody who had a 75% chance of throwing 200 decent innings next year. Our fourth starter is coming off a significant injury, as are many of the 5th starter candidates (those who don’t outright blow).
January 17, 2008 at 5:54 pm
#31 Will Headley bring better than mediocre defense to left field and have a good offensive year (.800+ OPS) to boot ? He has never played the outfield before and hasn’t played against AAA or above talent (other than a 17 at bat cup of coffee) either. I think your penciling him in as a top candidate sort of makes my point. My focus on the 3 players (Macias, Crabbe, PMac) is not at all like mentioning Jared Wells as a 5th starter. Jared Wells is very low on the depth chart while someone like Crabbe is talked about by Towers or Corey Brock as a candidate to receive 150-200 at bats.
January 17, 2008 at 6:01 pm
If Chase Headley can play left, I think he’s by far the best option. He’s likely to be a better hitter than any (non-Barry Bonds) free agent. I can’t think of a trade target that would hit enough better than him to be worth the trade price. Of course, if Headley is disastrous out there, we’re in big trouble and definitely need someone else.
January 17, 2008 at 6:03 pm
#33 Wonder why the Padres peeled off of Jason Jennings ?
You may be right about the 4th or 5th starter spot but does not every team throw out a question mark out of these spots while not every team relies on two minor league infielding prospects that have not played much or at all above AA to make a sudden conversion to the major league level as potential everyday outfielders on a contender. If Headley or Antonelli find the mlb level at this time to be tough than again we have the likes of DaVanon, Crabbe,PMAC or Chip Ambres….pretty sobering considering of the old horses in Edmonds and Giles that the Pads so rely upon.
January 17, 2008 at 6:09 pm
#35 I really like Chase Headley but lets be honest, is he “likely” to have a better year than any FA outfielder still available. I hope the Pads sign a one year rental deal of an established outfielder and let Headley and Antonelli get ONE to a half a year more everyday reps at the AAA level.
I would rather go veteran first (April) than Headley/Antonelli later than Headley/Antonelli first than a veteran later (June/July) if they fail. Though, I must admit, my formula was not the route the Pads took with KK and it paid off…..
January 17, 2008 at 6:09 pm
34: If he does bring mediocre defense and a 750-800 OPS bat, then what would be the point of Lofton or Gonzalez? A lot of analysts think AAA doesn’t teach you much, if anything. I’m not so worried about that. If they were passing on a big-time hitter because of Headley, I might feel different.
I looked again at my Wells analogy and I stand by it. Pmac didn’t even get a September call-up. Macias is an emergency CF who will almost surely be kept in Portland. And Crabbe is a Rule 5 pick. Getting 150 at-bats rotating around 5 positions is a lot different than being the starter in LF. Those are not the players who are being looked at as starting corner OF for the Padres. They’re not the reason we’re not in pursuit of Lofton or Gonzalez.
January 17, 2008 at 6:13 pm
Looks like Headley fared OK today says the team website. http://www.padres.com
January 17, 2008 at 6:15 pm
36: No, every team doesn’t rely on junk at the back of the rotation. And I’m not interested in being like a bunch of other teams. I’d like to be better than most teams. A thin rotation killed us last year.
I can understand passing on Jennings. Just how many guys with surgical scars can you have? I’d have rather had him than Rusch and Estes, but the money’s different.
Antonelli’s not being counted on to play in the majors at all this year. As for Headley, the list of infielders who have converted to outfield is long and fairly illustrious.
If Hairston and Headley struggle badly, without showing any of the signs that KK did, then we may trade for somebody. Bats like Gonzalez and Lofton just aren’t that hard to find.
January 17, 2008 at 6:17 pm
12 … anyone listen to Chase on XX?
January 17, 2008 at 6:20 pm
39 … thanks for the pointer … here’s a link directly to the Headley article …
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
… and the pic of Chase is in the ‘84 throwback uni … COOL!
January 17, 2008 at 6:23 pm
-Bats like Gonzalez and Lofton just aren’t that hard to find-
You’re right here, they could pick these guys up in June or July for next to nothing.
January 17, 2008 at 6:24 pm
42 … one other name was mentioned to add to the list of “in-house candidates” … Chip Ambres … and I’m forgetting who he is???
January 17, 2008 at 6:30 pm
42 … I’m just not a Corey Brock fan … for example, this exerpt from his Headley article …
“We know he can hit,” general manager Kevin Towers said of Headley, who hit .330 at Double-A San Antonio a year ago with 20 home runs and 78 RBIs.
… is just classic “old school” … when the truth is that “we know he can hit” because of his AWESOME on-base percentage (.437 at AA, per http://minors.baseball-referen.....i?pid=6402), not his “triple crown stats” (though the HRs are impressive and important) …
January 17, 2008 at 6:49 pm
I would love to replace Luis Gonzalez (500+ PA’s) 2007 stats/at bats with 2007 Padres 2007 future phenom -lead off sensation Termel Sledge (227 PA’s) or castoff Jose Cruz (287 PA’s) / or the oft Ducksnorts defended and beloved Russell Branyan (142 PA’s). If we do then we win the 90 games needed for the playoffs. I am only looking for one to two more wins…wins that can come in April or May as well.
Who will it be this year in lieu of the overpaid “you can get them anytime” old, reliable vets ? Unproven “he looked o.k taking flys in January” Chase Headley or maybe DaVanon (talk about you can get a guy anytime ) ?
January 17, 2008 at 6:55 pm
I think discussing Luis Gonzalez or any other free agent OF is a non-issue, unless it’s Barry Bonds. I hate Barry as much as anybody, but honestly can any of the other guys even make a positive impact?
January 17, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Anyway enough beating of this dead horse. I totally understand what you are saying and the point you are making Mr. Waits but the near miracles that the Padres seemingly receive yearly now in the pitching roster in the form of a Heath Bell, Justin Hampson, Kevin Cameron and even to some degree with a Justin Germano is now being counted on in the outfield —I don’t feel comfortble the odds at present. not with the current depth chart.
January 17, 2008 at 7:03 pm
46: Maybe there is a slight difference between Gonzalez and guys like Davanon, but he looks to be pretty similar to Hairston/Headley. Plus, there is no potential upside to Gonzalez, you know what you’re going to get, but Hairston and Headley have the youth and potential to exceed projections.
Also, by not spending 7 million on guys like Gonzalez, we were able to give Peavy an extension, and maybe now the Pads can look into locking up Khalil instead.
January 17, 2008 at 8:38 pm
#1, 3, 8: Thanks for the suggestions! Yes, Matt & Mud were very helpful last year.
#2: Cool. I hope to have more info early next week.
#7: Slog. Yeah, that’s a good word for it. But there’s nothing I’d rather be doing.
#11: Ah, bummer. Maybe next year. I’m sure we’ll have something during the season, too.
#13: Solid.
Regarding the outfield situation, we got Milton Bradley and Scott Hairston for a glass of water last year. That worked out okay. Gonzalez and Lofton do nothing for me. I don’t like the idea of paying a lot for backups. If we’re not going to bring in someone who offers a legitimate upgrade, I’d rather see what the in-house guys can do.
January 17, 2008 at 9:19 pm
As for the before mentioned trades, the Padres got extremely lucky with Hairston and Bradley. Lets hope the luck continues. I have doubted Towers before and most of the time (90% of the time) he has been right.
January 18, 2008 at 3:36 am
36 - I’m guessing the Padres saw something they didn’t like in Jenning’s medical report.
January 18, 2008 at 6:39 am
#51:
So, that’s probably not luck. Maybe more like skill.