From October 1, 2004:
Well, it’s October and technically the Padres still aren’t out of the race. Or, if you’re reading this later in the day, maybe they are.
The Pads have already won 22 more games than they did all last year (and they still have three more to go against the worst team in baseball), and they’re the only NL team that had a losing record in 2003 that managed to push themselves above .500 in 2004. They’ve surpassed my preseason prediction of 84 wins (which I actually worried might be overly optimistic). The Padres will end up within shouting distance of the 800 runs forecast by GM Kevin Towers despite getting virtually no production from the key free agent acquisition (Jay Payton) and a whopping nine homers from Ryan Klesko.
The Padres scrapped and battled, and slowly began to believe they could win. Fan support was tremendous, eclipsing the 3 million mark for the first time in club history on the final day. But for all the positives, we are left frustrated and disappointed by a season that could have been so much more. In what looks to be their fifth best season in 35 years of existence, the Padres repeatedly failed to execute in key situations (how often can a team have two runners on base with nobody out and not score?). They made questionable roster decisions (Eddie Oropesa, Jason Szuminski, Kerry Robinson, the #5 starter revolving door, failure to acquire any names bigger than Rich Aurilia and Dave Hansen for the stretch run) and fielded a squad that collectively wasn’t well suited for their new ballpark and who individually seemed all too aware of and frustrated by that fact.
I should be happy, and for the most part I am. This truly has been a great season of Padres baseball, and Petco Park takes advantage of what San Diego has to offer in ways that the Q never could. Every time I step into the ballpark and look out onto the skyline, I am reminded of how blessed I am to call this city — for whatever faults it may have — my home. Corny as it sounds, I do take pride in Petco and the way it shows off our city. And this year, unlike in years past, I have been able to take pride in the Padres as well. Even when they’ve struggled to execute or blamed the new park for their problems, I’ve never doubted their desire to win. That’s not something I’ve always been able to say about some of the recent editions. Then again, it’s hard to get too worked up about these things when you’re routinely losing 90+ games a year.
On the one hand, I find it irritating beyond words that the Padres haven’t been able to wrap up a playoff spot and must visit Coors Field to play one game (or flip a coin, if you prefer) against the hottest team in baseball. On the other, I’m grateful that the Padres are committed to fielding a competitive ballclub, and that they at least have given themselves a chance to make a third straight postseason appearance.
Monday’s game starts at 4:37 p.m. PT, and will be broadcast on TBS and XM 183 [update: the Padres feed can be found on XM 184; hat tip to Phantom in the comments]. We’ll have the IGD up and running about an hour before first pitch. Luck permitting, it won’t be our last…
Two styles of play:
Padres scratch out some runs and hold on with good pitching and bullypen
Rockies consede some runs with decent pitching and hope to out hit the other guy.
Key to the game is to stay away from the big inning, the 4 run inning, the classic Rocky Rally. Problem is the Rockies hit for avg so there will be runners on base, that is when JP needs to bear down.
Looking at Rocks sept wins, its looks like they either blow you out or loose.
More re: BVP… Barrett’s numbers against Fogg are almost entirely the product of 13 PAs in 2004 when he hit Fogg to the tune of a 2100+ OPS. Impressive, but does it have any predictive value for 2007?
Cox has TBS HD active on Channel 733; it may not be listed in the program guide yet. Unfortunately I live in a Time Warner area and it doesn’t sound like they’ll have TBS HD running in time for the game.
93 – P-Town!! Frequent poster Marsh and I grew up in VA Beach (we moved there from SD), and spent a lot of time in good ‘ol P-Town. It ain’t SD, but as you’ll realize, nowhere really is. Portsmouth is not anywhere near as bad as some destinations you could have ended up in.
Also how long did it get JM to build an academy in the DR? There has been a ton of talent passed up by the Pads because until SA came to SD Mores was to cheap to invest 2 mil in what has been a very lucrative market for other teams.
105: Good point. Which is why I have to disagree with the agrument that JM is a great owner.
Batter vs pitcher matcups are basically worthless … not because certain batters won’t fair well against certain pitchers, but because the sample is almost always too small to gain any real insight from it.
Someone could be .400/.500/.700 against a pitcher in 40 PA’s. It could be luck/randomness or it could be somewhat real. The goal is to find whether or not it’s real. The simple rate stats (or any regular stats for that matter) don’t help you in that area.
Ugh, if this is going to disintegrate into another “Moore$ is a crook” thread, I think I’ll pass.
To anyone who was offended by my label of arrogant: I think its completely arrogant to be down on this team because they haven’t won a WS before. They’ve enjoyed amazing success since coming to Petco. Do I want them to win a WS? Hell yes. Am I going to sit here are rip the team, the front office, and the owner if they fail to accomplish this? No way in hell. I was a Padres fan during some awfully lean years when TG was the only reason to go the park. What I consider arrogant is this notion that Padres fans are somehow entitled to a WS win just becuase Petco was opened. Our franchise has significantly turned it around since ’04, and the guys in the farm portend more improvement in the years to come.
As I said earlier, if you want to be pissed off and demand a championship, turn that ire to the Chargers. They HAVE the big-name players that the Padres cannot hope to acquire. Yet, their FO’s ego has decimated the team this year.
96: Delmarva Peninsula. Isn’t that where the Braves’ Myrtle Beach minor leaguers play? That’s a nice area to watch baseball. I think NOG used to rack it there.
93: I’m sorry that you had to moved out of Coronado. Hope you get to catch the game today.
90,102: I know why I don’t like Barrett starting. Nice analysis, man. I’m feeling better about Jake vs. Helton today.
Just a quick Chargers note, I gave up the season as soon as they hired Norv Turner as the head coach. Still, I’m disappointed he’s not proven me wrong.
Emotionally:
Rocks are on a great run 13-1 to get here. Fans will be crazy, batters are confident. They are rolling much like the Phillies.
Padres have stuggled all year, but unlike the Mets, managed to rally after last week’s problems. They have been on the road for a long time to SF, Mil, and now Co, and are tired no doubt. But they seem to rally from the brink, step up with thier back against the wall.
You have to give the emotional edge to the rockies, but the Padres have the playoff experience not to get too tight and they have battled all year. Wish we had camy in center.
The Padres’ inability to develop solid or better regulars (and keep them here) bothers me far more than the lack of FA splashes.
We kinda did this with the Taguchi(?) and Luis Castillo midseason trades, but is there any FA, based on his 07 performance, that we should have paid for? DeRosa in Chicago? Lilly was pretty solid but he still has 3 or 4 more seasons. That’s the problem. Even if Pierre hit .330/.380/.420, getting even more steals, the Dodgers still have four long years of him.
I find it funny that the U-T has brought up Vladimir Guerrero’s name a few times of late – his desire to come here. I missed that and always thought it was a padres.com forum myth.
Just to relieve the tension around here, a funny read for us all:
http://tinyurl.com/2t3dms
LM: congrats on your win in the fantasy league.
Thanks Clayton…I think it seems like a pretty cool place. I plan on being back to SD sometime in the future, but for now I get to watch the sunrise over the ocean as opposed to the sunset…
The suckiest part is that Padres home games start at 10pm…I will avoid the news each morning and just watch the replay before the West Coast wakes up.
In the meantime, I will be heading over to a sports bar tonight to watch the game. Gotta think we have the edge here with Peavy going, but as hot as the Rockies have been, coupled with the Padres seeming inability to hit bad pitching, it should be interesting…
Oh yea, a word of warning to any/all of you heading out of SD…never wear your “Who’s Your Padre” shirt. It confuses many and makes a lot of others want to fight you.
Re: 108 People cant be critical of the team? Unless a team wins the WS then there is room for improvement. Part of fun of being a fan is discussing what you think the team can do to get better, the fact that we are going to have well over 200 posts today shows the support that people have for this team, if we did not think the Pads were doing a good job we would not waste our time (or companies time for most of us) sitting here talking about one of our passions.
People have issues with Mores get over it, it not going to change. Most fans have issues with their owners it comes with the territory of owning a team. Fans will always think they should spend more on the team, it may not always be right but its just how things go.
you want a bad fricking owner, try Tom Warner (famous fire sale, and Roseann Bar incident). Moores is good, count your blassings.
Re; 116 like I said JM would be seen as alot better owner if he was barred from talking to the Media.
I think people would be a lot more understanding of Moores if he talked more, they tried to have Alderson be the face of the franchise publically but Moores is a much, much more likeable guy then Alderson.
Moores does hate to talk to the media though(for good reason) so it is probably a necessity to have a strong CEO around.
115: I take no issue with honest criticism of the team. I take issue with the sense of entitlement that many “casual” fans about winning a WS, just because we opened a new stadium.
Of course we all love the team, that’s why we come here to debate. But I get irked by the constant calls for Moores’ head. It seems like some people would prefer it if we were as horrible as some believe us to be, just so that their hatred for him could be vindicated.
And I don’t have to get over a damn thing. Until someone brings up a credible argument, with proof, about how Moores is continually screwing the team and the fan base, I refuse to accept the blanket assertions that he is a bad owner.
For example if Moores explained how the made zero money on about 85% of the ballpark land(a development company, by law cannot profit on the purchase and subsequent resale of land in a project like the ballpark district)
He has made a ton off of the Omni and others, but all those condos around the park don’t help him at all, other then helping the valuation of the properties JMI does own in the area
113: Thanks, Didi, that link is LOL funny.
Player profile on Josh Fogg from Mr. Normandin …
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6775
Need a BP subscription … I figured some of you may be interested, although I haven’t even read it myself yet.
118: A lot of this feels like ground already covered, but we’ll really never know until the Padres make public audited books, how much Moores has spent from his personal accts over the years and what the debt service obligations means for diverting cash flow from the payroll.
re 123: the ballpark funds are very public through the ccdc. I think we’re all aware that the baseball team’s finances are not public.
Leave it to ESPN.com to diss the Padres’ chances:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=3044170
The headline on the ESPN front page reads: “Is Peavy Ripe for Picking?” Makes it sound like Josh Fogg and not Jake is the best pitcher in the NL this year. Don’t care what the national media thinks about this game (honest), but I can’t think of another pitcher I want out there with the season on the line.
Re: 123 true I don’t think the Moores supporters will be able to convince the non-supporters and vice versa.
I am sad. We had the chance to win the division outright if we had beat the Brewers in two very winnable games.
Then we had the chance to win the wildcard outright by winning just one of those games.
I fear that our pitching is tiring, and that our hitters are not being very selective. As I’ve said, when your strength is pitching against a team whose strength is not pitching, the best strategy is to drive up the other team’s pitch count.
Holliday will be motivated to take over the NL RBI lead in an attempt to boost his argument for MVP, though I think that Jimmy Rollins has it all sewn up. That guy is frickin’ amazing. He’ll have a huge payday when FA comes.
I love our team, and if Cameron OR Bradley were healthy, I think we’d have a good enough lineup to throw out there to go along with our pitching. But for us to compete now, we’re going to need a little luck, or else our guys are going to have to hit over their heads…
Bip
Mark: Bad post. I should have thought that one through more. Yes, I do know that the baseball team’s finances are not public. I’m saying it’s difficult to make an informed judgment about Moores’ commitment to payroll and player development when we don’t know how much money (or not) the team is making. Or am I missing something?
As you probably know, SA said on 1090 that Moores injected millions (capital call, is it?) this season. The vocal distrusting fans are always yammering about Moores’ earnings off redevelopment but they – none of us – have all the information necessary to say stingy investor or not. Do we?
Re 125: I love the line “Except perhaps for the Peavy factor, Colorado can make the case that it’s got the Padres right where it wants them.”
That is like saying…except for the last place finish, the San Francisco Giants have the NL West right where they want them.
I think we can definitely place a value on the whole ballpark redvelopment to Moores pocketbook, but we’ll never be able to agree on what % of that money should be put back into the team.
To venture a guess: He’s taken out about 50M cash from projects and has made another 300-400M in value added to properties he already owns through JMI. This will only increase as everything is completed.
Oops, Christmas 07 is in danger:
http://ironictimes.com/
Another funnies.
113 … ya, nice link, Didi … and don’t forget that the fantasy league ain’t over until this evening’s final pitch!
Or like saying, except for the fact that he generally struggles in big games, Peavy is a great big game pitcher.
Let’s hope Peavy and his coaches are figuring out a game plan that will help prevent another October meltdown. He’s another year older and wiser, and his one-strikeout performance last time out gives me hope, too.
And let’s hope the rest of team remembers that no one is paying them to watch Peavy pitch – go out there and score some runs!!
The key to tonite’s game is to get an early lead and never trail. If it comes down to an even game with a few innings left, I’m not necessarily fond of our chances. Colorado can mash, period. The Padres, not so much.
Ideally, we could put up 2 – 4 runs in the first two innings, while Jake keeps the Rockies quiet. From here, psychology starts taking hold, and the Rox hitters maybe start making Jake’s job a little easier.
The key for the Padres offense tonite is going to be patience. They’ve got to be willing to take walks and pitches tonite. Fogg will give us free passes, we just have to be willing to accept them.
OK, this “heart” thing has got to stop:
James (Phoenix, AZ): buster, you don’t know the DBacks, you havn’t watched them all year. No team in baseball plays with more heart.
That has replaced “my team gets no respect” as the most annoying bleeding-heart fan cliche. Hey, James, your team was outscored this season. Feel fortunate the Dbacks are even in the thing.
Buster Olney’s response: James: Saw this before I signed off. You’re right, the D-Backs have been playing in a vacuum, and nobody has noticed them at all. FYI, in March, I picked them to win the division.
A free article at BP today … “Padres versus Rockies” …
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6776
… I haven’t read it all, but I like the way it starts …
Jake Peavy’s not just the league’s best starter, he’s baseball’s best starter, by a lot.
As an FYI, to get the 1090 version of the broadcast for tonite’s game on XM, listen to 184. The 183 that GY listed is the Rox broadcast. Optionally, the ESPN (or Fox Sports) radio broadcast is 185.
We should start offering a $20 reward for any national writer who predicts a Padres win, with the best pitcher in baseball on the hill.
This should get us ready for the Phillies series in which I’m sure everyone is going to be predicting a Phillies sweep-a-rino to borrow a phrase from Philly Billy.
I have the game plan for tonight… anyone who saw Marc Normandin’s BP column today:
“His strikeout rates are as low as ever, and he still gives up a lot of homers on a lot of flyballs; more than half of his balls in play go to the outfield, and almost half of the time that the ball goes to the outfield, it’s a hit.”
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6775
so put the ball in the air.. and the offense will get better
Re: 138 It makes it even sweeter when the padres win and make all the national guys ::cough:: keith law ::cough:: look like over payed idiots
Do the Padres only get 25 men tonight or do they still get 40?
40…although I think that might be a disadvantage given the Rockies rather liberal use of their bullpen
Anyone else nervous yet? And it’s still 3 and a half hours to gametime.
Man…..Too Much Show on 1090 takes a topic that’s worth about 3 minutes of debate and stretches it out for 2 hours. Every show, every day.
On Friday the Rockies had won 11 in a row. The D-Backs had just lost two of three against the Pirates. The D-Backs had a worse lineup than us, and Jeff Francis, the Rockies’ best pitcher, was pitching against them. But Brandon Webb was on the mound for the D-Backs, and they won 4-2. All that momentum stuff is really overrated when you have the best pitcher in the league going for you.
Re: 143 Yes
144: To start Peavy or not? I can’t listen today.
Reading comments on the U-T stories is “fun.”
145 … BINGO!
All Systems are GO!!!
Is it 100% that if we win Tomko or Clark cannot be included on the playoff roster? I hear that is the case but then people also speak of an injury replacement. If neither those guys (or Lane I guess) are eligible we’d be fielding a mighty strange 25 guys I think. Probably including most of Cassel, Germano, KCameron, Stansberry, Sledge and Robles.
Also, since today is 10/1, does that mean “Mission October” is a success???