From October 1, 2004:
Well, it’s October and technically the Padres still aren’t out of the race. Or, if you’re reading this later in the day, maybe they are.
The Pads have already won 22 more games than they did all last year (and they still have three more to go against the worst team in baseball), and they’re the only NL team that had a losing record in 2003 that managed to push themselves above .500 in 2004. They’ve surpassed my preseason prediction of 84 wins (which I actually worried might be overly optimistic). The Padres will end up within shouting distance of the 800 runs forecast by GM Kevin Towers despite getting virtually no production from the key free agent acquisition (Jay Payton) and a whopping nine homers from Ryan Klesko.
The Padres scrapped and battled, and slowly began to believe they could win. Fan support was tremendous, eclipsing the 3 million mark for the first time in club history on the final day. But for all the positives, we are left frustrated and disappointed by a season that could have been so much more. In what looks to be their fifth best season in 35 years of existence, the Padres repeatedly failed to execute in key situations (how often can a team have two runners on base with nobody out and not score?). They made questionable roster decisions (Eddie Oropesa, Jason Szuminski, Kerry Robinson, the #5 starter revolving door, failure to acquire any names bigger than Rich Aurilia and Dave Hansen for the stretch run) and fielded a squad that collectively wasn’t well suited for their new ballpark and who individually seemed all too aware of and frustrated by that fact.
I should be happy, and for the most part I am. This truly has been a great season of Padres baseball, and Petco Park takes advantage of what San Diego has to offer in ways that the Q never could. Every time I step into the ballpark and look out onto the skyline, I am reminded of how blessed I am to call this city — for whatever faults it may have — my home. Corny as it sounds, I do take pride in Petco and the way it shows off our city. And this year, unlike in years past, I have been able to take pride in the Padres as well. Even when they’ve struggled to execute or blamed the new park for their problems, I’ve never doubted their desire to win. That’s not something I’ve always been able to say about some of the recent editions. Then again, it’s hard to get too worked up about these things when you’re routinely losing 90+ games a year.
On the one hand, I find it irritating beyond words that the Padres haven’t been able to wrap up a playoff spot and must visit Coors Field to play one game (or flip a coin, if you prefer) against the hottest team in baseball. On the other, I’m grateful that the Padres are committed to fielding a competitive ballclub, and that they at least have given themselves a chance to make a third straight postseason appearance.
Monday’s game starts at 4:37 p.m. PT, and will be broadcast on TBS and XM 183 [update: the Padres feed can be found on XM 184; hat tip to Phantom in the comments]. We’ll have the IGD up and running about an hour before first pitch. Luck permitting, it won’t be our last…
39: I don’t put much stock in head-to-head stats. If barrett and NOG sucked all year, they’re more likely to suck today, IMO
Man, we are fired up for the game already.
I don’t want Barrett starting.
Helton owns Peavy. This is very disconcerting. That lineup 1-6 the Rockies have is tough. I hope the Padres hitters are ready to be patience with Fogg. I sure would like to see NOG start 2B but his hacking ways just suck.
Re: 49 I agree that the team has progressed, but there needs to be a point to the progression and I always thought that point was to win a championship, was I wrong?
Re: 51 with batters you have to put a little stock into head-to-head match ups because the batter may see the ball come out of particular pitches hand really will or the pitchers “stuff” may play really well into the batters strengths.
50: There’s nothing wrong with wanting to win the WS. I, personally, think there IS something wrong if you’re hostile towards the FO just because that goal isn’t accomplished.
Everyone knows, they KNOW, that this team cannot compete financially. Given that, I fail to understand why people get so indignant when we, gasp, don’t spend money.
Seriously, this year, which FO would you have rather had? Ours, or the Dodgers? People can claim that the Dodgers wanted to win the WS because they ponied up stupid money. And that got them a 4th place finish.
If people want to be angry at a SD sports team for not winning it all, be upset at the Chargers. The Chargers can compete (thank you, salary cap) and they HAVE the superstars that we all wish the Padres could get in baseball. Yet, the Chargers have had just as much success as the Padres the past few years. Somehow, though, the Chargers get painted as the franchise that really wants it all, while everyone kicks the Padres when they’re down. Could someone explain this to me?
Steve, I think we all want to win a world series. Probably time to realize that the Padres will NEVER be favored to do so as long as they play in San Diego.
The organization has improved each year in Petco, they still make some mistakes and don’t spend as much as we’d like on the draft but overall things are good.
Nothing much has changed, if the team had went 4-3 on this same road trip in April we’d all have been pretty happy. Peavy should be able to win the game today, if he doesn’t then they don’t deserve to be in anyway.
After that it isn’t like starting Young and Maddux the first 2 games in Philly is going to cause any huge problem. Jake can come back on regular rest for game 3.
A short sidebar about the Chargers: If you want to complain about an owner not spending money check out how far under the cap the Chargers are(about 20M) think that could have brought back Edwards and found a better corner and safety….let alone a real #1 wideout
Didn’t Barrett happen to get a hit off Suppan yesterday? A guy he “owns”? I think those head-to-head numbers are relevant if sample size is decent. I wouldn’t mind seeing NOG start, but I’d rather have Bard.
Re 33:
I wrote an e-mail about another topic, but 2 of my points are relevant here:
6. San Diego played ’07 about 8mm under the allotted budget – they weren’t being cheap, they just did find the right player to spend the money on
8. For all San Diego’s perceived cheapness, the only players they let walk away in free agency (since Alderson coming board) haven’t done so hot with their new teams (Ramon Hernandez, Dave Roberts, Ryan Klesko, Chan Ho Park, etc.)
***
San Diego WILL spend the money on the right players (ie. I will be SHOCKED if the Padres let Jake walk – he’ll won’t be on the wrong side of 30 when he’s a FA – he’s a premium talent at a premium position)…
52:In Fogg’s case I agree with some patience although pitch count will be rather meaningless, since he will go no more than the 5-6 innings he has the last ten games. He has walked 17 batters in the last 34 innings.
34: Phantom, I respectfully disagree.
I have been through ALL the lean years with this team (from the early 70′s on). I’m a lifelong Padre fan. Just ask the players and coaches whether or not it’s ‘good enough’ just to make it to the playoffs? It certainly isn’t for them, and it shouldn’t be for us.
Maybe that is because I expect more and want more than just to ‘be there’ in October. Yes, we’re on the doorstep for the third year in a row. Yes, the NL West is the toughest division around, but just getting in isn’t good enough and should never be. I want a championship for this team and for San Diego. If that makes me and Richard D. arrogant, then so be it.
Re: 55 People like our FO (SA, KT, GF ect…) we all acknowledge that they have done an amazing job. Fans don’t like our owner, JM has shot himself in the foot a number of times by making promises he cannot keep and/or misleading fans. You can argue the semantics about what he did or did not say but you have to admit that he intentionally painted a brighter picture than he ahs delivered.
54: You’re probably right, but I think the effect is either minimal or not accurately represented in those stats…I still think the fact that Bard has a .360 OBP vs. Barretts sub-300 in hundreds of PA’s this year tells me more about what they might do today then their stats vs. Fogg.
Funny to hear all the Baseball Tonight guys picking the Rockies today…guess it doesn’t matter that Fogg sucks
I don’t think anyone is painting the Chargers as wanting it all – they hired Norv Turner for crying out loud.
The Padres’ hands are tied financially, so they have to be smart. From what I hear they have been drafting well (a la the Chargers), and that should pay dividends in the coming years with good players who will be on the team for a while (a la Peavy). In the meantime it’s great to celebrate their successes, but we wouldn’t be fans if we didn’t want more.
in the Getting Ahead Of Ourselves department, is it just me or is this the worst 4th starter situation we’ve had in years? Cassel/Germano making starts in the postseason? Any chance they pull a Jeff Weaver? ugh.
Re: 63 I agree with you on Bard and Barret but its more because Bard is one of the leaders on the team and he is also mr clutch so he needs to be out there tonight, I was more talking about
nog/b(l)um.
Objectively, I’d pick the rockies too, or if I had real money on the game. The h2h favors the rocks, so does their offense. But its baseball and anything can happen, see Sat night.
I can’t blame the pundits for picking the Rockies. Thems got some swagger right now. But the Pads won 7 of the first 12 against them. They can be beaten – 73 times so far.
Eric, we agree on Bard, and I give Marcus the start at 2nd. How good are his stats against Fogg?
62 – don’t forget all those frivolous lawsuits that delayed Petco for several years. I think the added financial burden of those unplanned-for Qualcomm years is just now stating to be relieved. People seem to want to rip Moores for not breaking the bankroll open as soon as Petco opened it’s doors, forgetting that there was/is a cost to those delays.
64 – predictable. Couple thoughts why:
A) Padres are never sexy enough for national pundits to fall all over themselves for (no “hot” young talent, no superstar hitters bopping 50+ dingers, etc);
2) everyone likes to believe in momentum, which is clearly on CO’s side if it matters at all. I tend to think that’s garbage, the most important player in every game is the two SP, and that changes every game so how do you have any momentum at all in baseball if the most important player is never the same game to game?
I wish they’d just go to Johnny Wholestaff whenever that situation arises….they’re going to carry 11 pitchers(because they can’t help themselves) so its not like the guys are going to be taxed with all the off days coming up in the playoff schedule.
Game 1 Wednesday: Maddux(full rest)
Game 2 Thursday: Young(full rest)
Game 3 Saturday: Peavy(full rest)
Game 4 Sunday: Crap….Maddux on 3 or Johnny Wholestaff
Game 5 Tuesday: Young with an extra day
I’d think they use Maddux on 3 and try and get him out of there after 4-5. With the 3 days around that game being 2 days off and a Peavy start the bullpen should be in perfect shape to throw 5+ IP
70: Good points about Moores and about why the Padres aren’t getting any love. Jake also has stopped more losing streaks in baseball than any other pitcher. Tonite would be a great time for him to do so again.
As for Moores lying about committmens, I have yet to see any material proof on this point. People always say, “But he said so!” Really? Where is that? Where and when did he say it?
Moores promised competitiveness, which is what we’ve gotten since being in Petco. Once you make it to the dance, you can do anything.
#47: I don’t think it’s arrogance to want to win the WS. What gets me is the presumption by some that the Padres FO doesn’t have that as their goal.
#64: It’s only funny if they’re wrong.
#66: Er, um, no comment…
Re: 70 even past the Petco stuff, JM was quoted this year as to saying that he wanted “big name” talent on this team during the whole bonds HR thing. We’ve talked about it before, SA should put a gag order on the whole Padres FO (including JM) and they would get them selves in a whole lot less trouble with the fans.
69-NOG and Blum are closer…I wouldn’t mind giving the nod to nog vs fogg for defense
74- wanting something is not the same as promising it
who wouldn’t “want” ARod?
Game 4 of the Phillies series shouldn’t be a huge issue: they can start Maddux on 3 days rest and use the pen for 5+ IP. The 3 days directly around the game would include 2 days off and a Peavy start…so no problem for the pen there
Personally I think the point is to field a team that has a chance to go deep in the playoffs every year. You can’t build a team to win the World Series if you don’t get to the playoffs. How many teams can afford to go all out for the World Series? Boston, NY, Chicago, LA, maybe Atlanta. Barring that kind of revenue, the next best thing is to make smart trades, stay away from bad contracts, build a strong farm system and look for bargains internationally, all of which the Padres are doing.
I think the Padres have as good a chance as Colorado, the Cubs and Cleveland to win it all. They’re never going to be the Yankees or Red Sox but they can be like Oakland or Minnesota, competitive teams most years, with a chance to beat anyone if they get hot. If a Kevin Brown type situation becomes available you can jump on it to put yourself over the top.
People point to the attendance as proof that the Padres are making money but the real money is in TV revenue. Getting that kind of money requires a huge and passionate fan base, something that just isn’t going to happen here, no matter how many games the Padres win.
77- I like that thinking. I kinda doubt they’ll do that, so I still worry
Re: 76 thats my point about semantics, you can debate the meaning of what he has said all you want but his point was to give fans the impresion that the pads were going to look to sign a big name in the offseason.
Its the same he did to get petco, yes you can not point to one smoking gun quote from JM but the padres gave fans the impresion that they would have big name tallent on the roster and be competivie every year. You can debate weather limping into the playoffs for 3 straight years is being competivie or not (I think it is) but some may not see it that way.
TV money has little if anything to do with a rabid fan base and everything to do with a large number of humans living in your “local” broadcast area
Re: 78 or making poor long term deals with rink-a-dink local cable stations who will not put the games on satilite.
It aslo has to do with SD having alot of transpolants who follow the cubs/yankees/mets/dodgers ect… SD is still a new large city, most people (30+) who liver here were not born here.
I want the Padres’ organization (owner, FO, players, fans) to want to win a WS … in fact, I believe they/we all do …
82 – rink-a-dink? COX is all over the country…
re 83: Actually that has absolutely nothing to do with how a team gets paid for tv revenue. They charge a fee per person or per household. If I remember correctly it works out to something like $2.50 per customer for the cable company. Cox probably has something along the lines of 3M people locally for the Padres where the Red Sox are looking at, at least 20M people considered local for them.
We didn’t win in the playoffs last year because Moneyball teams can’t hit in the clutch in October. Duh!
Steve, fair posts, but I don’t think the Pads limped into the playoffs last year, even if it was a 88-74 team. Didn’t “we” go something like 20-9 in September?
I think the points being made can be made without labeling passionate and respectful padres fans here “arrogant.” I also think it’s quite possible to be ecstatic of what you’ve got here in SD, but desirous of more.
The FO clearly does all it can to do as well as it can, and it’s success clearly makes it one of the best in baseball. However, there’s nothing wrong with wishing that the owner would be as passionate as winning as some Padres fans are. I think there are many of us that if in JM’s position would be willing to make less money or even lose some for an increased chance of success. And based on what the FO has done with this much money, I can’t help but salivate over the thought of what they could do with more.
I am optimistic about today, I am optimistic about the future, and I love being a Padres fan right now. And as good an owner as JM may arguably be, I can’t help but wish he was a little bit better.
Re: 85 I meant Ch4 not cox itself
How many PAs needed before BVP stats are predictive? I’m going to guess it’s pretty high. And, I’m also going to venture a guess that except at the extremes (many PAs and ungodly bad or good numbers), BVP should be largely ignored.
For example, Peavy vs Helton. Career OPS of 1080. Looks pretty good for Helton, right? Against Jake, Helton is even above his career OPS (1014).
But slice it up a bit:
Thru 2005: Helton OPS vs Jake = 1225
2006-07 = 788
And isn’t this what we’d expect? Helton in his prime dominated the kid pitcher. But as Helton ages, and Jake comes into his prime, things shift.
So, at the very least, I’d be very skeptical of making lineup decisions on BVP numbers without scrutinizing them closely.
re 82-83: At the time the Cox deal was made, it was better for the team than any the Padres had ever made. Arguably, Cox paid too much for the rights. The only way the Padres can do better is to get a regional sports network to pick them up or to start one of their own – which leads to the fundamental problem.
San Diego is a SMALL media market. It doesn’t have the potential reach that LA or SF has. It is blocked by LA/OC to the north; the ocean to the west, no man’s land to the east, and Mexico to the south. Mexico, like other foreign countries without teams, is MLB’s property in terms of most revenue, not the Padres’.
I hope the Padres can get an RSN started for their next contract, to pick up satellite and cable viewers and bring in more revenue, but it may not be easy.
Also, it is not semantics to know the difference between wanting and promising and getting. I want a lot of things I am not likely to get, and I can’t really make serious promises about them. The Padres may want an expensive prime free agent or ten, but they are never likely to get them, and it is foolish for a fan to translate a “want” or even a “need” into a “promise”. It is best to listen with your head and not with your heart in such situations.
Re: 87 I was looking more at 05 and 07, but they did not wrap up the Div until game 162 last year, so its not like they were a dominate force in what was a weaker NL west last year.
Re: 3/4…I am now living in Portsmouth, Virginia…sorta like Coronado (small town, on the water, things to walk to, view of downtown), but not really. I am just trying to make myself feel better or something…
Re: 91
“it is not semantics to know the difference between wanting and promising and getting.”
When the guy who writes checks for the team says it, it is semantics.
Geoff, r we going to break the non-IGD comment record today? Nearly 100 before noon…
93. I live to the north in DC, but that is a beautiful area, especially when you go to the Virginia side of the Delmarva penisula..but its not Coronado
Well it’ll cost them 100-200M to start their own tv channel so I wouldn’t count on that happening any time soon
Re: 94 I’m fine with the Pads not going out and signing a big name guy, I really like the way they are heading and I think they will continue to be successful for a long time, but my point is that people are going to jump on JM because he has mislead fans weather its with a single quote or not he has. The average fan does not sit at their computer everyday and dissect the operations of the FO and follow the farm system. The average fan reads the sports page every morning and listens to 1090, so you have to understand why they would hear what JM has said and feel mislead.
88: Hey, JM and family were at Miller Park!
I’m leaving the serious JM stuff to more eloquent others, but I’ve been disappointed in some of the drafting, most recently the Schmidt pick, mainly based on what TW and even Keith Law said about him (pitchability over stuff), plus the Hardball Times writer about his mechanics.
Unfortunately, we don’t really know if he’d sign off on a Kevin Brown-type deal because we haven’t had the chips to get a guy like that.
There is certainly some well deserved frustration over the draft and very specifically their current refusal to deal with Boras at any level.