| time: | 7:15 p.m. PT |
| tv: | 4SD |
| sp: | Brett Tomko (4-11, 5.36) vs Matt Cain (7-16, 3.68) |
| pre: | Padres.com, B-R.com |
Brett Tomko is an anagram of Bottom Trek. Matt Cain is an anagram of Attic Man.
I wish there were a super hero called Attic Man and he played for the Padres…
Tunes: Joe Pass, Kenny Burrell.
214 Comments
Okay, Arizona is down 4 with 2 to play; the phillies are down 4 with two to play. We cannot afford to mess this up. From here on out, nobody leaves their current seat. No going to the bathroom. No taking the trash out. No getting up to adjust the TV because you’re out of batteries in your remote. You’re stuck watching what your watching with smelly garbage and full blatter. Got it!?!?!
Shoot, meant to type Phillies are down 3.
Damn Chase Utley! Phillies down just 2 now… WHO MOVED!?!?
btw..phillies had three to play…. boy, I really screwed up that first line…
So, phillies down 2 after 7. Dbacks down 4 after 7. To borrow a line from Star Wars….”STAY ON TARGET!”
I really gotz ta go…. bad…. but if Marsh guarantees this will work…
Ahhhhhhhhhhh….. dang, new office chair, too…
(Oh, that’s right, forgot I had that asparagus at lunch……)
Dprat – you’re a team player. The Padres owe you a debt of gratitude… and a new chair… send the bill to Sandy A c/o Padres.
more than worth it if it makes a difference… however, d’backs are rallying big time…. eeek!
Damn it! Dbacks down 3 with 1 out in top of the 8th… our hopes are on Romulo Sanchez to hold this lead….Come on Romulo!
OT: Jorge Velandia just hit his first big-league homer, a grand slam. In 1994, the Padres acquired Velandia and Scott Livingstone from the Tigers for Gene Harris — that’s Trevor Hoffman’s predecessor as closer if you’re playing the home version.
Damn. D-backs down 1
Crap! Dbacks only down 1, with only 1 out in top of the 8th… Romulo, you suck!
dammit broken bat fly ball brings in the the run to tie the game
Dbacks have tied it up. Whomever moved, I hope you know that you are responsible for this callamity. Selfish, selfish, selfish…
on the good news side… phillies still down 2 after 8
and bottom third due up in the ninth
pirates going to their 4th pitcher of the inning (Marte, Sanchez, Grabow, now Torres – god help us) to try to get out of the inning with a tie.
Pirates out of the inning, but not until after giving up 4 to the dbacks. Tied game: 5-5 going into bottom of the 8th.
Brandon Lyon is now in to pitch for the D-Backs. He has a 2.66 ERA despite a low strikeout rate (about 4.5/9) and a so-so groundball rate of 42.7%. So he doesn’t keep the ball on the ground and he doesn’t strike people out; how has he been so awesome this year?
Chipper goes yard… braves up 4 in the ninth.
Chipper just hit a two run blast off of the vaunted Phillies bullpen -10-6 Bravos. I feel a Braves sweep – this thing is WIDE OPEN !!!
That a’boy chipper!! Braves tack on two runs in top of the 9th. Braves up 10-6 in top of the 9th.
PIRATES SCORE! 6-5
We can move to within one game of the Mets as well – if the Mets collapse (1-5) (which actually seems quite possible) and the Phillies go 3-3, then it could be the Mets that we are vying with for a berth against. BTW, what is the problem with the Mets ?? This is why I want the Pads to somehow get in…this thing is wide open.
LETS GO MATT CAPPS! Hold them D-Backs!
Holy crap! And, the Pirates take the lead back! 6-5 swashbucklers!
Josh Phelps singles in LaRoche in Pittsburgh, and the Pirates take a 6-5 lead into the ninth!
19: Lyon’s only given up two homers in 71 innings. So he’s had a lot of luck (and probably some skill) in keeping fly balls in the park. Consider his hr/fb rate over the last 4 years.
04: 9%
05: 15%
06: 10%
07: 2%
Hmm … where’s the outlier …? Small sample sizes make it particularly difficult to evaluate relievers from year to year.
sorry … stats from the great fangraphs.com
2 down one to go!
Pirates win!
Ball game! Pirates win!
We have got to win tonight. Most important game of the year.
Swashbucklers win!
LaForest pop’s out for Phils … they have 2-outs in 9th …
Damn, nice play by Vizquel. Thought that was a kock.
Braves win, 10-6.
BALL GAME! BRAVES WIN!
Now all we need is a Padres “W”
Big nite for us. We can pick up some legitimate ground.
36 … a what?
40: My bad, missed the “n”. I know these things can be confusing with Brian Giles batting.
#36: What’s on your mind tonight?
Bravos win!
It’s going to be a big SD night!
42: An unnamed body part on Brian Giles maybe?
Kouz is a monster.
kouz just keeps hitting, this kid has really turned it up in the 2nd half
44 … my guess is that it has a name …
kouz now owns the second best batting average for our everyday players (.278) bard is at .282
Nats add another run … now up on Mets 10-3 in bottom of 9th …
With the DBs and Philly loosing tonight I can see the happiness in this thread and also how wierd it is starting out.
Franzen has more pine tar on his batting helmet than the bat.
B(l)um … sigh … what happened there?
50: It’s a new day!
That hit took a really funky jump at KG. Shouldn’t be an error on him.
Mets rallying … now down just 10-6 with 1-out and man on …
That was a little stressful, but nice to see Tomko get out if it okay. His command seems off; hopefully it’s just an early-inning thing.
#54: Agreed. I’m thinking they may change it.
Thru 1 …
Pitches-strikes – B Tomko 21-9; M Cain 19-12.
Ground balls-fly balls – B Tomko 3-0; M Cain 1-1.
Batters faced – B Tomko 6; M Cain 4.
… hmmm … seemed like Tomko worked harder than necessary that 1st inning …
Cain is ptching very well tonight. I’m hoping we can snap his mojo soon.
58: We just need Bocy to foolishly PH for him.
55 … Alou is now tie-ing run at the plate for the Mets …
Mets down 4, bases loaded, Alou up, 1 out.
OT … Prince Fielder with #49 and #50 tonight … does that lock up the MVP for him?
Bases clearing double, Mets down 10-9! Still1 out.
Alou doubles … Delgado now winning run … Rauch coming in for Cordero … yo!
Tomko is having a rough time locate pitches. Not good for us.
#1: That run was my fault. I went to the bathroom and grabbed another beer when Roberts hit that. Sorry, won’t happen again.
Delgado K’s as Chavez (pr) steals third … 2-down … tieing run on 3rd … yo!
Mets lose!
Damn, we didn’t need that.
Wow. This is a major downer.
Lost sight of what’s most important … #65 looks to be understatement …
The way we hit Cain, every hitter should go up and take until they have two strikes, in the hope of getting him out of there before the 8th to have two chances against the Giants bullpen.
Rox get a pair off Penny … now up 2-0 …
After 2 …
Pitches-strikes – B Tomko 44-22; M Cain 31-22.
Ground balls-fly balls – B Tomko 5-1; M Cain 1-2.
Batters faced – B Tomko 13; M Cain 8.
… ‘nuf said …
#72: Watching Cain just now, that should be Bud’s game plan. I haven’t seen many actual strike pitches here.
We were very lucky to get 2 good starts from Tomko down the stretch – can we really expect to go to the well and get another ?
On another note –let’s get Jason Lane in this lineup asap. Brady Clark brings little value offensively (no speed or power -late on every other swing) , at least the other fringe player, Jason Lane has some pop.
76 – I think Lane is a little stretched in CF, same as Hairston would be.
#72 – Bingo. It’s the only chance we have. If we can stay within 3 or 4 going into the last 3 innings then we have a chance against the Giants. Otherwise, tomorrow is a new day – 5 games left WC all tied. Let’s hope to god that the Rox have a tough time in LA. c’mon Jake Peavy – keep hope alive !!! Then we essentially have a 4 game playoff series in Milwaukee !!
#77 I follow you. I didn’t know abt Lane. Anyone for Drew Macias ? Joking – but it makes me uncomfortable watching Brady Clark on a daily basis.
In his career against the Padres before tonight, Matt Cain had given up 34 hits in 67 innings. That is absolutely insane.
79 – believe me, I’m no Brady fan either. I wouldn’t mind Lane getting some swings.
It’s time to start hitting if the Padres want to make the playoffs.
WE NEED THIS GAME CMON.
Amazing how the pitching staff has changed over the season. We started with a STRONG Peavy, Young, Maddux, Hensley, Wells. Now we have Peavy and that’s it. Maddux/Wells still good but not showing it…………..and that’s it. Our “strong” pitching has left us and we never had “strong” hitting. Leaving us with…….barely makeable postseason chances. BUT hey it could be 1980 or 2001 in Padre land. I’ll take 2007 anyday.
Let’s do this!!!!!
At least the hitters are making Cain throw pitches as they’re getting dominated. Cain has thrown 36 pitches against the last six batters, all of which he has retired.
Why is Tomko throwing an offspeed pitch to Kevin Frandsen on a full count, with two outs and no one on? Why would you possibly risk a walk against such a crappy hitter in a situation where it is almost impossible for him to hurt you, when you haven’t had command of your pitches at all?
Ah, it all makes sense now. Put him on to catch him stealing. Intelligent pitching there, Tomko.
Thankfully Tomko has stabilized a bit to keep a faint hope of a win alive. Also important will be keeping that bullpen well rested before what could be a wacky series in the launching pad in Milwaukee
85: Didn’t he turn on an inside fastball his first time up?
Dogs have tied it up. Not sure when, but didn’t see it posted in the comments. (maybe I missed it?)
I think we should have been PH for Tomko there though.
Colorado about to blow it open on the Dodgers. Bases loaded, already 1 in.
Thru 5 …
Pitches-strikes – B Tomko 68-38; M Cain 84-55.
Ground balls-fly balls – B Tomko 7-3; M Cain 4-5.
Batters faced – B Tomko 20; M Cain 18.
… those pitch counts are pretty bizarre, huh?
Ah, this is more like it …
Pitches-strikes – B Tomko 81-45; M Cain 84-55.
Ground balls-fly balls – B Tomko 9-3; M Cain 4-5.
Batters faced – B Tomko 23; M Cain 18.
… previous pitch count for Tomko was only thru 4 …
Colorado may have worked themselves all the way back from the dead. What a race !! This has to be the best race for the flag since 1967.
You go Scotty!!!!!!!!!!!
Three run homer by James Loney and the Dodgers are back on top 5-4. Hmm, rooting for the Dodgers. Weird.
imagine if we had opened the season with Hairston in left
96 … yes, it’s wierd … but perfectly OK today … and for the remainder of 2007 … be wise!
I sometimes wonder why Adrian strikes out so much. Smooth swing, almost perfect…goes the other way quite nicely. I have to think as he gets better the strikeouts will decrease.
OT: I love the question to Corey Brock from someone who wondered if the club is concerned about KK’s defense and baserunning mistakes as the team heads toward the postseason. I like Brock’s answer: “I think the team would be much more concerned not having Kouzmanoff in its lineup for the final week of the regular season, and then, if it happens, the postseason.”
You gotta wonder sometimes if people are watching a player’s entire game. Of course there are apparently people in Cincy who think Adam Dunn is worthless because he’s struck out 150 times.
Hairston certainly looks like a keeper even though it’s a small sample size.
100: Exactly. It’s like worrying over Khalil’s batting average. Focus on what a player does well and try to maximize it. Earl Weaver made a career out of that.
#97/101: Avoiding injuries, Hairston would have made the offense a lot more solid. I hope we have him for next season. As for Bradley, he has a good bat, but too what expense.
KG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let that friggin rock!
Thru 6 …
Pitches-strikes – B Tomko 99-58; M Cain 96-64.
Ground balls-fly balls – B Tomko 9-5; M Cain 5-6.
Batters faced – B Tomko 27; M Cain 22.
… good news: I wouldn’t think Cain would pitch more than 1 more inning … bad news: the Gi’nts bully isn’t as bad as you might think it is …
Chippin’ away, KG … way to go!
Bochy sure has a knack for making the wrong decision with regards to pinch hitting for Cain (at least in hindsight). Earlier this year he let Cain hit in a key situation, and the Giants didn’t score. Then Cain came back out and gave up the only run in the game. Then last week he pinch hit for Cain, the pinch hitter grounded into a double play, and the bullpen imploded spectacularly. And then today he doesn’t pinch hit for Cain, despite Cain having a somewhat high pitch count and the game meaning nothing to him, and Cain comes back out, gives up a home run, and is going to go over 110 pitches.
Who would have thought at the beginning of the year that Khalil would hit 25 (or more) HRs and push 90 (or more) RBI? Pretty damn good year, if I may say so.
107 … yes, you may say so … it’s very much worth saying … well said!
With a one run lead, the Dodgers are for some reason pitching Mark Hendrickson. Shockingly enough, he gives up a homer, putting the Rockies back on top 6-5.
Tulo HR … Rox up 6-5 …
One bad sign this year was the collapse of Khalil’s walk rate, so his OBP declined by 30 points despite a similar batting average. His big breakthrough was staying healthy, and that’s why he’s had his most valuable year.
Looking for silver linings … that HR by Tulo wip’d out a W for Penny … in case anyone’s still worried about NLCYA …
111: His K rate is also down this year, though. Last I checked, his BABIP was also down from last year, despite putting more balls in play.
Every year, Protrade publishes a list of the most unlucky players by position. I’d be surprised if Khalil doesn’t make that list for short stop.
How is Klesko looking at the plate? I guess .260 is about what I expected for this year … perhaps even a bit higher than I expected …
Klesko had a pretty good stretch early in the season where he was hitting.
Klesko started out well but then faded really badly.
first half: 295/.385/.477
second half: .223/.301/.319
The weirdest thing about Klesko’s numbers is that he’s actually hitting lefties slightly better than righties this year, after being much worse against them for most of his career.
Ok fellas…this is the inning.
Following on this theme: SA famously hinted on his 1090 spot last year that KG could be traded. He couldn’t have led you to that conclusion any easier short of saying, “Khalil Greene could be dealt.”
Darren Smith basically followed that up a month or two ago and SA’s like, “KG’s OBP isn’t exactly problem No. 1 with this team.”
So how someone could question whether one of the team’s hottest hitters should even be playing during the final stretch is mind-boggling. Maybe it’s the same person who thought Vinny Castilla’s defense was worth three wins alone in a week stretch last year.
That’s a good start.
Hmmm, I’m surprised Bochy going to Hennessey, who pitched 2 innings yesterday …
Say this about Sledge: Dude will take some pitches, at least.
Add another spark to the great race of 2007, Colorado ends their season at home versus Arizona. What a weekend coming up. Unprecedented.
120 … well, that was a short leash …
B Giles sure has been bad lately.
The LOOGY’s not gonna pitch to Hairston, is he?
There’s that Giles swing again. little extension, appearing inside out….lethargic really . One more year of Giles ? If we had legitimate leadoff man he wouldn’t be a bad #2 hitter but is this what we want from a corner outfielder for another year ?
124 … you got that right …
127 … add this to GY’s list of things I miss: OG in July & Aug
KK vs Wilson with a man on … this is *the* AB of the game …
Way late on this remark but Klesko ain’t good without the “cream” just like Nevin.
Well, OK … now Adrian vs Wilson is *the* AB of the game
131: After the way that one ended, let’s hope there’s another important at bat next inning.
f word
You don’t have to be Bob Scanlan to recognize that this team just hasn’t gotten many hits lately with men on 2nd and 3rd. A lot of strikeouts, too.
Nice 1st pitch knock for KG.
Last chance … Thatcher’s done his job … gotta scratch a pair here, boyz!
I’m likin’ seeing Myrow at the plate here … time for him pitch in!
137 … or not …
So, who now? Chase?
MAKE SURE YOU SWING AT THE FIRST PITCH!!!!!!
Rox add another run … now up 7-5 in top of 8th …
Now Chase? Sure *not* Oscar!
NO ROBLES PLEASE!!!
What the heck are we doing with Oscar Robles here
I predict this AB by Robles has about a 10% to 15% chance of being successful … whassup with *that*?
WTF Robles gets it done!
I knew Robles would come through!
Man, does anyone want to win this thing? Bochy is leaving WIlson in?
OG, all we need is a single!!!
144 … oh my!
naked BP show your girth.
Santa Maria!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don’t believe it!!
That’s what I’m talking about!
OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG ! OG !
Holy freakin’ cow
I’m really glad Bochy is managing the Giants
OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG! OG!
#150: Holy Santa Maria is right! You can hang a star on that one!!!!
Giles came thru. WE ARE ALIVE.
OGOGOGOGOOGOOGGOGOGOGOOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO!!!!!
HOLY CRAP!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MOTHER OF ALL DONGS!!! DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!
OMG are you serious!!! f’ing awesome!!!
I’m still not watching this game, for fear of screwing up everything. But, oh my word! Go Pads!
148 … oh my!
Santa Maria!!!!!
Yelled so loud that a neighbor across the street yelled back at me “hey man are you o.k ?”
That’s got to be the farthest OG has hit a ball all year
I’m grading homework assignments right now. 100’s for everyone!
WOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!
161 … Amen, Lance … amen!
I’m glad GY hasn’t said anything so far.
GY, stay mum. Mmmmkay.
HUGE!!!!!
Have I ever told you how much I *love* blown saves?
166 – I just yelled pretty loud myself and woke up the man across the way. Mind you, it’s 1 AM here on the East coast…
Naked BP came thru hard. #167: that was definitely the hardest Giles has hit a ball all year.
166… yeah, all my kids got outta bed to see what the ruckus was all about.
I remember we used to have some outfield prospect named Jason Bay. I wonder whatever happened to that guy?
I just opened an extra Tecate to celebrate Giles’ BOMB.
174… “Naked BP came thru hard…”
We’ll leave that one alone for now….
It’s an overused piece of hyperbole…but that would have to be the most important hit of the year at this point. We were dead.
is Richard around?
Death.
177: Seriously LOL after that. I didn’t mean that but sounds funky ehhh????
Two cans of Keebler nuggets would be nice.
No fault of Trevor’s there.
This is insane? Could this actually happen?
Matty V is talking about Matt Cain having six starts against the Padres, and the Giants losing all six. Don’t count yer frickin’ chickens before they hatch, dammit!!! Now there’s Giants on first and second…crap!!!
I will take credit for the Giles HR, since I called him out earlier.
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
Trevor makes em fun doesn’t he????
172: did you have to say that?
Taxes!!! HOFFMAN!!!
The 6-4-3 to gain a game on everyone that matters. Whew….
SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!! Awesome !!!!!!!!!!!
Dogs get 1 back … now 7-6 Rox headed to 9th …
Ballgame! Absolutely huge!
OK Geoff, it’s safe for you to interject now.
This win goes a long way towards killing off the ATL Braves as well which is a very good thing !
Ok, bedtime for me. Thanks for the conversation guys!
Sweet. Getting some waves here en la manana. Go Padres Wednesday. I’m out.
Me too.
#195: Thanks, I guess my comment #154 got lost in the shuffle there. Great win, folks. Let’s do it again tomorrow behind the ace. G’night!
We just won a Brett Tomko start, and we have Peavy going for us tomorrow. For one night at least life looks good.
Rox will NOT go away…
Geoff… but that now begs the question no one wanted to ask. If it means the postseason… do you go with Peavy on three days rest again?
Muy Bien.
#203: I would think so, Rich. He’s the man.
I agree, GY… especially considering the recent troubles of Young and Maddux.
201: Havent we won all of Tomko’s starts?
206 … let’s be clear about the options … here’s the rotation …
Wednesday = Peavy
Thursday = Cassel
Friday = Maddux
Saturday = Young
Sunday = Tomko
… so the issue is not Peavy vs Young or Maddux … it’s Peavy on 3-days rest vs Tomko on normal 4-days rest … Tomko who has now pitched 6 innings in each of his 3 starts … compared to Peavy who lasted 4 innings during his last 3-day-rest-start (Sep 5 vs DBacks) … he ain’t any more “rested” now then he was then …
It’s my understanding the decision’s been made by the Padres FO … Peavy will pitch “if needed” … not sure what “if needed” means … but I don’t care what it means … I’m saying I think Tomko gives the Padres a better chance to win on Sunday than Peavy … I bought into the “Peavy can pitch on 3-days rest” theory back on Sep 5th … been there, done that … I thought that was a good/right decision then … lesson learned … that’s not a mistake to be repeated …
#208: I see where you’re coming from, LM, but a sample size of one start isn’t enough for me. It would make for an unbelievably long winter if the Padres missed out on the playoffs because of Brett Tomko.
I don’t think we can look at just one of Peavy’s starts and compare it with three of Tomko’s. We need to consider the larger body of work, which pits the Cy Young Award front-runner against a guy who was released by a team then in playoff contention.
I’m thrilled with what Tomko has given us, in the same way that I was thrilled with what Justin Germano gave us earlier in the year or Mike Thompson gave us last year, but when the season is on the line, I want the ball in Peavy’s hands.
208: I don’t think one bad game is enough to conclude that Peavy can’t pitch on three days rest, just like his previous one start on three days rest where he pitched well was not enough to conclude he would be great on three days rest. If you apply the same drop in effectiveness to Peavy as the average starter has experienced the over the past few years on short rest, then he’s still a better pitcher than Tomko on full rest. (I’m not sure what exactly the drop is, but I’m basing my comments on a study in The Book that looked at short rest starters and their effectiveness.) So if you absolutely need to win that game, I think Peavy is a better option than Tomko.
There are reasons to think Peavy would be less effective than the typical starter on three days rest. His stats with five days rest are much better than with four over the course of his career. But I don’t think we can conclude based on one bad start that Peavy just can’t hack it on three days rest.
I’ve been sick and hadn’t watched since Thursday’s game. Guess I picked a good time to start watching again.
208: Nothing really to add beyond what Geoff and Ben said, but I’d definitely have to go with Peavy again on short rest. Even leaving the small samples of Tomko’s recent success and Peavy’s bad short rest start out of it, just think of it from the perspective of the team. Imagine going down without one of the top 5 pitchers in the game on the mound, in favor of Brett Tomko. Imagine the fan outcry there …
That being said, I’m still of the opinion that the team should do whatever gives them the best chance of winning that game. But I think when you boil it down, Peavy certainly does that.
208: Wasn’t Peavy hit in the leg by a line drive in that game?
213: yep, in the 1st inning too