Coffee in the bloodstream, jazz in the ears, baseball on the brain. Let’s get busy…
- Trade winds blow true (San Diego Union-Tribune). Tom Krasovic tells us what we already know: Kevin Towers is good at that trading thing. Here’s a passage that helps confirm some things we’ve long suspected:
Padres statistical analysts deserve credit, Towers has said. Research shows that home run suppression can be a predictor of success for a pitcher. [Left-hander Joe] Thatcher excelled in that area. Statistics favored by the Padres showed that [right-hander Heath] Bell had been unlucky with the Mets and that his excellent strikeout-to-walk numbers were better measures of his talent.
Yep, it’s all about the peripherals.
- Player Cards (from small ball to the long ball, via Friar Forecast). If you seriously want to geek out on PITCHf/x stuff, holy shmoly: here’s Jake Peavy’s card and here is Khalil Greene’s.
- Q&A with Brett Tomko (San Diego Union-Tribune). Quoth the veteran right-hander:
I didn’t feel like myself in L.A. I felt like I was trying to be someone that I wasn’t. I tried something with my delivery and it didn’t work out. I got out of whack, and I didn’t know how to fix it.
It’s okay, bud; that happens a lot in LA.
- The Matt Cain Effect (Gaslamp Ball). Dex offers his thoughts on the recent tiff between Giants pitcher Matt Cain and Scott Hairston. Get a room already.
- Rockies in the Discussion (SI.com). Jon Weisman moderates a roundtable discussion about the NL West. Consensus is that the Padres are the team to beat — assuming, of course, they make the playoffs.
- Flyin’ Under the Radar (Baseball Analysts). Rich looks at some of 2007′s biggest bargains. Ex-Padre DH Jack Cust makes the list, while reliever Heath Bell merits an honorable mention.
- Arizona League Top 20 Prospects List (Baseball America). Outfielder Yefri Carvajal ranks #14; shortstop Drew Cumberland checks in at #7.
- Northwest League Top 20 Prospects List (Baseball America). Outfielder Kellen Kulbacki ranks #6, while right-hander Mat Latos leads the pack. When is the last time a Padres pitcher was the #1 prospect in any league?
- Venable, 24, a venerable prospect (San Diego Union-Tribune). Will Venable will get a look in center field at the Arizona Fall League. Will stopped by the TV broadcast booth the other night when the Padres were in San Francisco. Will’s dad, Max (hitting coach at Elsinore this past season), played with Mark Grant, and Matt Vasgersian kept trying to get the younger Venable to call Grant an old man. Good times.
- Non-Prospect Diary (Baseball America). For me, Dirk Hayhurst’s diary was the best read of the summer. This is his final entry, and it’s a dandy:
If I am honest, the closest I come to toeing the rubber of a big league mound may be in my imagination. But in my imagination, it’s a great moment.
Amen, and best of luck…
- Case Study: Sean Burroughs (Minor League Ball, via Didi in the comments). John Sickels tries to figure out where Burroughs went wrong.
Finally, Ducksnorts has been nominated (thanks, Malcolm!) for Best Sports Blog at the Blogger’s Choice Awards. Feel free to vote for me if you’re so inclined. Happy happy joy joy…
Tunes: Delfeayo Marsalis, Mulgrew Miller, Vincent Gardner, Tony Monaco, Cannonball Adderley, Mark Whitfield, Charlie Rouse, McCoy Tyner, Wallace Roney, Pat Martino.
Blum has been great in Petco this season and brutal on the road. Last year he was brutal at home AND on the road. I think his production is a fluke (albeit a delightful one!), and would rather have a proven hitter/fielder in his place.
I don’t think there is much reason for Blum to be around next season, assuming either Antonelli is deemed ready to be the starter or they find another legitament starter at the position(if they decide to do neither they deserve the 3rd place finish they are going to get with short term thinking like that) they have both Stansberry and Robles who would make better utility players then Blum.
RE: Antonelli and Headley
what ever happened to Triple A? Why are they spoken of like they have nothing left to prove in the minors?
42: I find it hard to believe Bradley will see any action next year before the all-star break — if then.
Padre fans should have learned by now that in addition to being incredibly fragile physically, Milton is an extremely slow healer.
53: Amen! There’s a ton of optimism around here about these guys but good AA hitters are a dime a dozen. Give them at least half a season in AAA before we move one of our best hitters out of position and get rid of Geoff “Safety Net” Blum. Just because our AAA team has been full of garbage players doesn’t mean it’s not a good place for a young player to learn how to deal with quality breaking pitches.
My pick for CF next year: Coco Crisp. Boston is hot for Ellsbury so we can get him for cheap. He plays great defense and had a couple of pretty good years before going to Boston and hurting his wrist. He makes about $3 mil a year I think. Sure I’d rather have a big time CF but if we can’t have that I want a guy who can cover some ground out there.
Even if Milton Bradley comes back from the injury there’s no way he’ll be able to play an adequate centerfield after an ACL injury. Plus he’s too fragile, I’d rather he stay in left where there’s less chance of injury.
56: I think Crisp is a sensible option. He does play a fantastic CF and has some of that much-needed speed.
He’s got a career .329 OBP. I’m not sure if we’d need to bat him leadoff, but I think he’d be a fine player in San Diego.
56: From the mecca of baseball salary information, here is Crisp’s current contract:
07:$3.5M, 08:$4.75M, 09:$5.75M, 10:$8M club option ($0.5M buyout)
I think that his value through 09 is pretty good, and you’d obviously buy him out in ’10. Hopefully we’d have a homegrown CF option by then.
#52 ” Stansberry and Robles who would make better utility players then Blum ” – debatable to say the least. Stansberry is unproven and Robles has had one decent year in the bigs, while Blum has been respectable for several years.
re 55: “Good AA hitters are a dime a dozen” There is a lot more involved with prospect evaulation then simply their numbers, look at age, # of years in pro ball etc to get a more realistic view. It isn’t like Headley/Antonelli put up only “good” number they were top 10 players in the entire league.
Blum has been respectable: NO he hasn’t. Plus Blum can’t play SS defensively worth a lick. Part of the reason Stansberry would be a better bet as a utility player is the difference in cost.
A look at the 4-way-tie for WC possibilities …
http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=550
(note: after yesterday, there is now no way for a 5-way-tie … rats)
Anyone hear the interview of Milton Bradley on Fox’s best damn sports show?
I only heard it on the radio but it was pretty funny. I’m going to paraphrase but Milton said that if a team wants to win they will sign him. He said that when he comes back he is going to do what he always does which is be the best player in the stadium when he steps on the field and he said that he will mis not time because he’s going to rehab so hard he will be back in 6 months despite a completely torn ACL.
It was obvious he was pissed during the interview because Rob Dibble and Rodney Pete were asking him questions he didn’t want to asnswer but he came off as the cockiest jerk ever. It’s pretty interesting. I think you can see a video of it at foxsports.com but I can’t watch it at work so I’m not totally positive.
Milton with a huge chip on his shoulder could be either a potential MVP canidate or could be the kind of guy that takes a chainsaw and guts the clubhouse.
#60: Even that doesn’t always help. Many people would say that a 20-year-old who hits .322/.386/.467 in Triple-A and who is widely regarded as a top-shelf prospect should have a terrific big-league career. Sean Burroughs would argue otherwise.
On a more general note, I’ll quote Bill James again:
This is from the 1983 Baseball Abstract, and James is talking about Floyd Bannister, but the point remains: The goal isn’t to get Matt Antonelli to the big leagues as soon as possible, it’s to put him in a position that maximizes his chances for long-term success so that he can continue to be an asset to the club well into the future.
For as lousy a year as NOG has had, I think I’d rather see his option picked up than Antonelli handed the job on the basis of half a season at Double-A. At the very least, we know that NOG can play a major-league second base. Seriously, what’s the hurry?
We want instant payoff, Geoff. C’mon!
64: Rany Jazayerli wrote something similar about the Royals a couple of years ago. He felt one of the key ways to improve that team was to deliberately hold prospects back, so their peak seasons would more closely coincide with their cheap seasons. Also, try not to draft Colt Griffin.
I don’t know if that holds for a guy like Antonelli or a situation like the Padres. Getting his feet wet next year, before Jake’s walk year, might prepare him to contribute much more in 2009.
I think the idea is that the foot-wetting will take longer if AAA is skipped entirely.
rather have an earlier, longer foot-wetting period or a later, shorter one? who knows.
#65: LOL, I forgot about that.
#66: My hope for Antonelli is that he gets some exposure next year, maybe after the ASB, but that he isn’t counted on to step in and produce out of spring training. I’d love to see him get at least 300 PA at Triple-A. I suspect (based on no actual evidence) that he could probably hold his own at the big-league level if needed, but pushing him hard because — well, just because — smacks of desperation to me.
You know Antonelli doesn’t have to spend the entire year in the minors for the Padres to save a year before he’s a FA…he just has to spend about a month to guarantee they have him for 7 years.
Quoting Sean Burroughs stats doesn’t mean that minor league numbers don’t translate for the vast majority of players. Please see Kouzmanoff, Kevin
67: It was reported, here I think, that Alderson said a player who has mastered AA is basically ready, and that AAA doesn’t tell you much. Not saying I agree with that completely, but it seems to be an organizational principle.
If they bring in somebody better than Blum, I don’t have any problem holding Antonelli in AAA.
#69: Right, but the assumption there is that he’ll be ready to produce after a month in the minors. That’s hardly a given based on what we know.
I think we should put Hairston at 2nd on days Chris Young pitches
#70: How does Kevin Kouzmanoff equate to “the vast majority of players”?
70- speaking of kouzmanoff, kevin
I bet his April wouldn’t be as horrible had he spent more than a couple months in AAA.
73: Why not just put him in LF all the time instead
Keith Law took a shot at DS in his chat today.
64: I like giving Antonelli a bit more time, but I dont want to see Marcus back here next year and I dont think the FO liked his play enough to keep him around.
70: Please see KK’s April stats. That’s what you get when you drop a AA hitter into a major league lineup. Yes he pulled out of it but he’s (IMO) an exceptional hitter who is going to put up some All Star caliber seasons. He’s also older and has more minor league experience than Antonelli and Headley. And don’t forget Kouz was this close to being sent down to Portland. We got lucky with Kouz, I’d rather not push our luck.
I think Headley and Antonelli will eventually be good players but to count on them to fill two major holes is very risky.
77: What did he say?
Here’s an interesting piece on Peavy’s pitch selection, over at Baseball Analysts.
77.
STFU! Haha what did he say?
13: The problem with WARP is that it uses FRAR which is basically garbage.
83: Aren’t both Cameron’s and Green’s FRAR in the negative? Maybe I got the wrong metric.
80, 82: An exaggeration. I’ll do a C&P
Two parts:
Chris (Chico): How do you project Chase Headley
Keith Law: Average big leaguer, capable defense at third, great OBP guy, hits for some average, not much power.
Adam (Columbus, OH): I know everyone wants their players to be stars, but when you call someone an “average big leaguer” do you think people have an apperciation for just how good that is?
Keith Law: Trust me, I’ll get slammed somewhere for my anti-Padre bias because I didn’t say that Chase Headley is the bestest third base prospect ever. Average big leaguers aren’t that easy to come by.
31: http://tinyurl.com/yr74rv looks more like average than “bad.”
85 – he’s such a blowhard. How does he command a salary at the Worldwide Leader. Half the posters on this blog could do his job better and they all keep up with baseball in their spare time.
Wow, talk about some insane numbers…
I am currently sitting on a BA of .833 and have a SLG% 2.083. They should call me K-Rod in the San Diego Corporate Softball League haha.
Ever think of a Ducksnorts softball team GY? Could be fun.
84: Don’t know what their FRARs are, but I doubt they’re negative. Their FRAAs might be, though. Both are garbage stats, but FRAR is worse because the concept of replacement level fielding is just stupid.
I’m thinking of FRAA, which our pal Mr. Law doesn’t like either.
89: Richard, what defensive metrics do you think valuable, if any? Curious, as I respect your number-crunching opinions.
85: Could he possibly misstate people’s opinions more? Not only does he need to put more work into his analysis, he needs to develop a slightly tougher skin.
Speaking of softball, we could use some players for a Sunday morning co-ed slow pitch league. Contact me here if interested.
85: I have to agree with Law. What’s wrong with projecting Headley as an average 3B, with good OBP and low power? That’s kind of what I see when I look at his numbers so far but I’m certainly no expert.
93: That’s exactly it. Few of us do disagree substantially with Law about Headley’s upside. Certainly not me, and I got into it the most with him.
What aggravated most people about Law was his pat, unconsidered dismissal of:
1. Antonelli’s power increase this year.
2. The quality of the Padre pitching staff.
I’m no longer allowed to wear my Vintage Friar Logo Padres t-shirt to work.
Today a kindergartener looked at it, pointed at the bat, said “You have a pee-pee on your dress”, and went in the corner and cried.
91: In no particular order: Revised Zone Rating, Ultimate Zone Rating, Plus/Minus, Team Plus/Minus, Probabilistic Model of Range
At least John Donovan has our back…
“I heard it again Thursday night, this time on the Brewers’ broadcast, and it’s driving me batty; “The Padres are a terrible hitting team.” Again, guys, look a little deeper. The Padres’ scoring numbers are lousy. But that’s because they play half their games in Petco Park. Away from San Diego, they score more than five runs a game, fourth in the league. The Brewers, of course, found that out when the Padres put up a nine-spot. Pretty good for a team that can’t hit and didn’t get into Milwaukee until 6 in the morning”
94: I dislike Keith Law mostly because he comes across the way I’m occasionally afraid that I do. Also, I disagree with him on a handful of things.
95 … ouch … that’s not good … what’s up with “dress”??? How big is that “t-shirt”?
98 … you do … and we still like ya … keep bringin’ it! (and update your blog with the rest of Top 100 Padres!)
Nothing to see here. I just wanted to see us get to 100 comments on this post.
99: The blog’s dead and the list is out of date. heh