Friday Links (28 Sep 07)
Fri, Sep 28, 2007
by Geoff Young
Coffee in the bloodstream, jazz in the ears, baseball on the brain. Let’s get busy…
- Trade winds blow true (San Diego Union-Tribune). Tom Krasovic tells us what we already know: Kevin Towers is good at that trading thing. Here’s a passage that helps confirm some things we’ve long suspected:
Padres statistical analysts deserve credit, Towers has said. Research shows that home run suppression can be a predictor of success for a pitcher. [Left-hander Joe] Thatcher excelled in that area. Statistics favored by the Padres showed that [right-hander Heath] Bell had been unlucky with the Mets and that his excellent strikeout-to-walk numbers were better measures of his talent.
Yep, it’s all about the peripherals.
- Player Cards (from small ball to the long ball, via Friar Forecast). If you seriously want to geek out on PITCHf/x stuff, holy shmoly: here’s Jake Peavy’s card and here is Khalil Greene’s.
- Q&A with Brett Tomko (San Diego Union-Tribune). Quoth the veteran right-hander:
I didn’t feel like myself in L.A. I felt like I was trying to be someone that I wasn’t. I tried something with my delivery and it didn’t work out. I got out of whack, and I didn’t know how to fix it.
It’s okay, bud; that happens a lot in LA.
- The Matt Cain Effect (Gaslamp Ball). Dex offers his thoughts on the recent tiff between Giants pitcher Matt Cain and Scott Hairston. Get a room already.
- Rockies in the Discussion (SI.com). Jon Weisman moderates a roundtable discussion about the NL West. Consensus is that the Padres are the team to beat — assuming, of course, they make the playoffs.
- Flyin’ Under the Radar (Baseball Analysts). Rich looks at some of 2007’s biggest bargains. Ex-Padre DH Jack Cust makes the list, while reliever Heath Bell merits an honorable mention.
- Arizona League Top 20 Prospects List (Baseball America). Outfielder Yefri Carvajal ranks #14; shortstop Drew Cumberland checks in at #7.
- Northwest League Top 20 Prospects List (Baseball America). Outfielder Kellen Kulbacki ranks #6, while right-hander Mat Latos leads the pack. When is the last time a Padres pitcher was the #1 prospect in any league?
- Venable, 24, a venerable prospect (San Diego Union-Tribune). Will Venable will get a look in center field at the Arizona Fall League. Will stopped by the TV broadcast booth the other night when the Padres were in San Francisco. Will’s dad, Max (hitting coach at Elsinore this past season), played with Mark Grant, and Matt Vasgersian kept trying to get the younger Venable to call Grant an old man. Good times.
- Non-Prospect Diary (Baseball America). For me, Dirk Hayhurst’s diary was the best read of the summer. This is his final entry, and it’s a dandy:
If I am honest, the closest I come to toeing the rubber of a big league mound may be in my imagination. But in my imagination, it’s a great moment.
Amen, and best of luck…
- Case Study: Sean Burroughs (Minor League Ball, via Didi in the comments). John Sickels tries to figure out where Burroughs went wrong.
Finally, Ducksnorts has been nominated (thanks, Malcolm!) for Best Sports Blog at the Blogger’s Choice Awards. Feel free to vote for me if you’re so inclined. Happy happy joy joy…
Tunes: Delfeayo Marsalis, Mulgrew Miller, Vincent Gardner, Tony Monaco, Cannonball Adderley, Mark Whitfield, Charlie Rouse, McCoy Tyner, Wallace Roney, Pat Martino.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 28, 2007 at 8:12 am
So here’s what we should with KG this off season lol….just kidding nice win again last night.
Here is hoping Maddux is healthy. Finally the Rockies/Diamondbacks play each other…now at least one of them has to lose every day.
Doesn’t it just seem like the Mets are going to be on the outside looking in at the end of all of this? I don’t think I would want to be playing Florida right now, nothing like an underachieving team making its season by ending yours.
September 28, 2007 at 8:23 am
Not another 100 comment KG thread! Kidding. The key for mad dog, is keeping the bases empty because Brewcrew will hit thier HRs tonight. The trick is keeping them solo jobs. And Padre hitters, god love em, keep manufacturing runs. If mad dog gets some support, he’ll give us 5 innings.
That Az v COL game will be interesting. two 17-game winners.
September 28, 2007 at 8:32 am
GY … thanks for the link to Dirk’s diary … I hope he’s back next season … pitching and writing … he’s a dreamer and a worker … that’s a pretty powerful combo!
September 28, 2007 at 8:36 am
1 & 2: Agreed. If Maddux has a good start, we should win this game. Hopefully we have some other members of the bullpen capable of long-relief tonite, if necessary. I loved Buddy’s quick hook for Cassel last nite, and I would be in favor of a similar approach to Maddux tonite (nothing personal Greg, we just need all of these games).
In the past three years (it’s all I can get from ESPN, since BR is blocked at work), Capuano is 2-1 against us with a 2.84 ERA. I know he’s scuffling this year, but those tend to be the type of pitchers that eat us up. Hopefully the team can continue to have strong at-bats and put up some more runs tonite.
Oh, and hit the ball to Ryan Braun. Every at-bat. That should get us a win. I know the guy can rake, but Jesus, that’s some horrible defense. But he’ll still win ROY hands down, huh? It should totally be Tulo.
September 28, 2007 at 8:47 am
re: Braun vs Tulo for NLROY … the road stats difference > defense difference … my vote goes to Braun …
Tulo might be best player to finished 2nd in a long time, I dunno … all I’m saying is that I’m a huge Tulo fan … he’s a keeper … Braun is better … he’s *that* good …
September 28, 2007 at 8:51 am
5: You certainly do present a compelling argument. Which of the sabermetrics commonly used factors defense? How do they compare under such a metric?
September 28, 2007 at 8:52 am
Time for the FHOF’er to get back on track and pitch like he was before the last couple starts. Our hitters should be able to rake on Capuano, but we also have that annoying tendency to let mediocre starters rejuvenate their seasons against us. Need to break tendency tonight.
#4 - I second that emotion. Braun is brutal at the hot corner. Have Tulo on my fantasy team and have no complaints at all there.
Guess the best outcome of the AZ-CO series is CO winning the series while we take 3 more from the Brew Crew. Hello NLWest championship w/ no playoff!
Meanwhile, over on the Right Coast…glad I’m not a Met fan.
September 28, 2007 at 8:55 am
4: Here’s the problem I have with Braun and Tulo. Braun’s only doing what the Brewers are making him do by playing 3b. They could have put Hart in CF, Hall at 3b, and used Braun in the outfield instead of Jenkins and Mench. If the Rockies had forced Tulo to play CF because they had a hole there, it would cut drastically into his strengths.
Put Braun’s 34 HR and 1.009 OPS in RF and there’s much less debate. If they’d done that to start the year he might have 45 HR.
September 28, 2007 at 8:56 am
8: That’s a good point. Also, the difference in playing time also speaks volumes.
According to THT, Tulo has is responsible for one more win share than Braun this year. That could very easily be related to time played.
September 28, 2007 at 9:00 am
Speaking of quick hooks, here’s my strategy if we need a win on Sunday: Let Tomko (or whoever is scheduled) make the start but tell Jake he’s going to come on in relief if Tomko falters. Tell Tomko to go out there and let it all hang out, if he gets tired after 3 we can bring in Jake for three, then go to the pen. I don’t want Jake starting on short rest again and have him thinking he needs to conserve his energy to make it through a 6 or 7.
September 28, 2007 at 9:04 am
#4: I like your strategy. I forget who laid down the bunt yesterday that Braun threw into right field, but the TV guys seemed shocked that the batter would hit it toward third base. Then they got on J.J. Hardy for not coming off the bag to catch the ball. Of course, the runner would’ve been safe at second either way.
It’s an extremely small sample size, so I won’t make any generalizations about Braun’s defense, but I will say that he played about as poor a third base as I’ve ever seen last night. The Brewers might want to petition for a move back to the AL so they can keep him or Prince Fielder off the field in any given game.
September 28, 2007 at 9:05 am
Re: 10 or they can win the next 2 and prob not have to worry about sunday!
OT wow tim redding is pitching for the nationals tonight, I guess the bagboy at albertsons was unavaialable?
September 28, 2007 at 9:07 am
Tulo has nearly double the WARP value; part of that’s playing time, but he does have a huge defensive value edge.
We’ve seen similar problems with Padre players recently. Nevin lost a lot of value playing 3b, even in 2001, but that was a roster / personnel problem. It’s sort of similar to my concerns over Kouz and Headley next year. Kouz seems to have more offensive potential, and he might actually hit better relieved of the worries of playing the infield. Why give back any production on defense if you don’t have to?
September 28, 2007 at 9:10 am
12: Redding’s had a career renaissance for Washington. 20.1 VORP, 123 ERA+. It’s an abject fluke; 36 BB, 44 K in 76 innings, but somehow those balls are finding mitts.
September 28, 2007 at 9:13 am
4: Agreed. Truly awful at D. Also made several “rookie” mistakes by trying to hump up and gun out guys after stumbling to get the ball.
So yeah, to all our RH hitters: Hit it at Braun, preferably on one-or-two hops.
September 28, 2007 at 9:15 am
Re: 14 even a blind squeal finds a nut every now and then
September 28, 2007 at 9:17 am
Re: 16 squirrel oops damn spell check!
September 28, 2007 at 9:33 am
11: Braun’s glove has been the story most of the year, look for Yost to yank him in the later innings for a better glove at Third. His defense is horrible, and that’s not using any metric that’s just from what I’ve gathered by watching them play the Braves.
I sure as heck would’ve bunted it straight at Braun, and hoping he air mails it on his throw to Fielder, who also has the range of a bloated water buffalo.
September 28, 2007 at 9:49 am
re: peavy on short rest
please let me know if there’s a hole in my logic, but the way I see it, the only must-win scenarios for that last game are either to force a tiebreaker or avoid a tiebreaker. In either case, doesn’t it make sense to save Peavy for the more important potential tiebreaker (in which he would be pitching on normal rest)?
September 28, 2007 at 9:52 am
Re: 19 Good point
September 28, 2007 at 9:54 am
#19 There are cases where there would be 2 potential tiebreakers. If it were win Sunday or play 2 tiebreakers, I think the obvious thing to do would be to win Sunday.
Whether or not Peavy on 3 days rest really gives you a better chance to win Sunday is a whole nother issue.
September 28, 2007 at 10:02 am
Have you ever seen a bloated water buffalo run, man are they fast
September 28, 2007 at 10:06 am
Some national love for Khalil and Kouz: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
September 28, 2007 at 10:29 am
13: But he also may hit worse having to learn a new unfamiliar position. I really dont think Headley even starts the year with the big club, it will al depend on what kind of production we are getting out of LF from Hairston. If its no good, Headley will come up midseason. Its theres no problem, he will spend the year in AAA.
September 28, 2007 at 10:30 am
23 … nice link, thanks Phantom! The very last tidbit (on Page 3, note: Hairston gets love on Page 2) … is a riot …
New York Post back-page headline: “Paging Dr. Heimlich.”
September 28, 2007 at 10:32 am
24: It’s true, Kouz might struggle with LF. It’s the easiest defensive position, but LF in Petco isn’t as easy as most.
The odds of one of them being traded might be at least 40%.
September 28, 2007 at 10:34 am
Braun beats Tulo hands down. 35 or so HR’s and he was forced into his position. Tulo is a great rookie, hell Kouz had a good rookie season but in less ABs Braun has produced much more.
That said, he gave us more runs last night than he scored for his own team so keep hitting the ball to him, HARD.
September 28, 2007 at 10:37 am
25: Exactly. And Headly isnt exactly a stud inflielder, so really the defense will probably be moot. kouz has shown he can rake in the big leagues, Headley has not yet. Headley probably has more value and this offseason we have alot of holes to fill. One of them will be gone, we dont have the money to try and buy a 2B, CF and 1 or 2 Starters
September 28, 2007 at 10:40 am
If I were Bud Black, I would give a pregame directive to the team that all bunts, sacrifice or otherwise, be hit down the 3B line tonight, regardless of situation.
19 - that’s pretty much what BB told I think it was the SD UT for this morning’s column - the only way Jake starts is if we have to win to force a tie. If we can lose and tie, he saves Jake for the Monday playoff on normal rest.
September 28, 2007 at 10:43 am
I posted it yesterday but they have 15-20M to spend in order to find 2SP, 2B, LF and CF. Assuming they leave LF for Hairston then they are in better shape, but the CF market could be pricey as the SP always is.
KT is going to have to make a few deals to get this team ready for 08 and after, finally though they have some prospects to make those deals with.
September 28, 2007 at 10:48 am
28: The defense isn’t going to moot. Kouz has been bad. Not average, bad. Headley isn’t considered great, but some scouts see him as above-average; he was named the best defensive 3b in the Texas League.
September 28, 2007 at 10:49 am
23 - should have had Thatcher in that top 20
September 28, 2007 at 10:50 am
Predictions anyone?
Tonight:
Phils beat Nats: Phils have mo and a 14-game winner going tonight @ phil where there are really crazy
Pads beat Mil: FHOL vs 5-12 guy. Won’t be easy with greg’s back, avoid multi-run HRs and our bats aren’t dazzled by 5-12 heat.
Az @ Col ?: Tough game to call. Webb v Francis, 2 17-game winners, routing for Col, and 12 straight.
Fish @ Mets ?: Perez v Kim, Mets should win, even with the psych on, but not sure
September 28, 2007 at 10:50 am
Here’s an idea: what about Kenny Lofton in central? He’s old, but he can still play, and he’d be pretty affordable. Here’s my proposed outfield:
Lofton
Hairston
Giles
Bradley (re-signed, put on DL)
Headley
Mackowiak/Clark
Bradley and Clark would be solid CF depth, I think. I imagine Bradley would be healthy by midseason?
Alternately, I’d really like to see the Padres try Hairston at 2B next year.
September 28, 2007 at 10:55 am
34: Hairston’s bat will play in LF, and with Antonelli they don’t need to see his “defense” at 2b.
Lofton? Eh, maybe. I haven’t looked at his defensive numbers. He looked bad, anecdotally, playing CF for the Dodgers.
September 28, 2007 at 10:57 am
Drew Miller checks in at 16 on the Midwest League Top 20. Former Padre Jose Ceda (traded for Todd Walker) is #7.
September 28, 2007 at 10:59 am
why is phil listed as leading the East and the Mets as the WC team when they have the same record? H2H?
I asked b/c if the Pads and Col win tonight, would the Pads or az be listed as leading the west?
September 28, 2007 at 11:01 am
35: As far as I can tell he’s been a league-average fielder this year. As a hitter his average and OBP have been solid, but poor SLG (especially with Cleveland). Still, I think Bradley is the best choice for CF and Lofton would be an affordable, effective stopgap/backup. I’d rather do that than spend 10mil+/5 years on a Rowand/Cammy.
September 28, 2007 at 11:03 am
37: If its H2H it would still be AZ as they own the season series.
September 28, 2007 at 11:05 am
38: How can you tell if he is league average or not? Just wondering
September 28, 2007 at 11:05 am
37: If the division is tied and the other team isn’t the wild card, there will be a play-off game between them. It doesn’t matter which team is listed as the wild card as long as they’re tied.
September 28, 2007 at 11:06 am
Jenga ain’t playing next year — that’s my guess.
September 28, 2007 at 11:07 am
40: Looking at his range factor and zone rating compared to league averages. Not the most reliable things in the world, but they’re good enough for a quick judgment. He’s been almost exactly league average in both stats this year.
September 28, 2007 at 11:13 am
43: Where do you see “league average” is it a raw number or do you just look to see where he fits in the pack. Using zone rating its hard for me to believe that Juan Pierre has been a better CF than Cam.
September 28, 2007 at 11:24 am
Will Carroll says MB “won’t be ready for spring training”, which doesn’t tell us much.
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=6765
(membership required)
September 28, 2007 at 11:25 am
Keith Law…you’re suppose to be an impartial observer right, well to be that don’t you have to pay attention? Why watch 2 teams trying to make the playoffs when you can watch 2 teams from the east coast!!!
Alex (Princeton): So, what series will you be watching this weekend? Brewers-Pads, Rocks-DBacks, Mets-Marlins or Phils-Nats? Which teams do you think have the best chance of surviving and making it to the NLDS?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:16 PM ET ) All but the Brewers-Padres series - I think the Brewers are finished, and Capuano was 83-86 when I saw him last month, which is good news for the Padres.
September 28, 2007 at 11:27 am
42: Not at the start, for sure.
Here’s an unorthodox CF solution: Brian Giles. We’d be going all-offense, with OG in center, Hairston in RF, Kouz or Headley in LF.
Probably not.
September 28, 2007 at 11:36 am
Do you guys think Antonelli is ready to play 2B next year? I guess Blum is a good contingency plan but I’d rather have something more reliable. What about replacing Blum with Mark Loretta?
September 28, 2007 at 11:38 am
47: Bad call IMO. Giles couldnt play 140+ games in center epecially when 12 are in Petco. Giles is a decent RF with a decent arm but not a CF. That would be the least costly in monetary sense though, but I dont think it would win us ball games.
September 28, 2007 at 11:40 am
48: I wouldnt mind Blum being the opening day 2B if Antolnelli will be ready to come take over in May or June. If he wont be ready next year you have to go get someone though, or give Stansberry a shot to start and be a Utility guy in ‘09.
September 28, 2007 at 11:49 am
Blum has been great in Petco this season and brutal on the road. Last year he was brutal at home AND on the road. I think his production is a fluke (albeit a delightful one!), and would rather have a proven hitter/fielder in his place.
September 28, 2007 at 11:58 am
I don’t think there is much reason for Blum to be around next season, assuming either Antonelli is deemed ready to be the starter or they find another legitament starter at the position(if they decide to do neither they deserve the 3rd place finish they are going to get with short term thinking like that) they have both Stansberry and Robles who would make better utility players then Blum.
September 28, 2007 at 12:04 pm
RE: Antonelli and Headley
what ever happened to Triple A? Why are they spoken of like they have nothing left to prove in the minors?
September 28, 2007 at 12:17 pm
[...] found a couple links about former Wizards through Geoff at Ducksnorts. Thought I would [...]
September 28, 2007 at 12:46 pm
42: I find it hard to believe Bradley will see any action next year before the all-star break — if then.
Padre fans should have learned by now that in addition to being incredibly fragile physically, Milton is an extremely slow healer.
September 28, 2007 at 12:47 pm
53: Amen! There’s a ton of optimism around here about these guys but good AA hitters are a dime a dozen. Give them at least half a season in AAA before we move one of our best hitters out of position and get rid of Geoff “Safety Net” Blum. Just because our AAA team has been full of garbage players doesn’t mean it’s not a good place for a young player to learn how to deal with quality breaking pitches.
My pick for CF next year: Coco Crisp. Boston is hot for Ellsbury so we can get him for cheap. He plays great defense and had a couple of pretty good years before going to Boston and hurting his wrist. He makes about $3 mil a year I think. Sure I’d rather have a big time CF but if we can’t have that I want a guy who can cover some ground out there.
Even if Milton Bradley comes back from the injury there’s no way he’ll be able to play an adequate centerfield after an ACL injury. Plus he’s too fragile, I’d rather he stay in left where there’s less chance of injury.
September 28, 2007 at 12:55 pm
56: I think Crisp is a sensible option. He does play a fantastic CF and has some of that much-needed speed.
He’s got a career .329 OBP. I’m not sure if we’d need to bat him leadoff, but I think he’d be a fine player in San Diego.
September 28, 2007 at 12:58 pm
56: From the mecca of baseball salary information, here is Crisp’s current contract:
07:$3.5M, 08:$4.75M, 09:$5.75M, 10:$8M club option ($0.5M buyout)
I think that his value through 09 is pretty good, and you’d obviously buy him out in ‘10. Hopefully we’d have a homegrown CF option by then.
September 28, 2007 at 1:10 pm
#52 ” Stansberry and Robles who would make better utility players then Blum ” - debatable to say the least. Stansberry is unproven and Robles has had one decent year in the bigs, while Blum has been respectable for several years.
September 28, 2007 at 1:10 pm
re 55: “Good AA hitters are a dime a dozen” There is a lot more involved with prospect evaulation then simply their numbers, look at age, # of years in pro ball etc to get a more realistic view. It isn’t like Headley/Antonelli put up only “good” number they were top 10 players in the entire league.
September 28, 2007 at 1:11 pm
Blum has been respectable: NO he hasn’t. Plus Blum can’t play SS defensively worth a lick. Part of the reason Stansberry would be a better bet as a utility player is the difference in cost.
September 28, 2007 at 1:19 pm
A look at the 4-way-tie for WC possibilities …
http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=550
(note: after yesterday, there is now no way for a 5-way-tie … rats)
September 28, 2007 at 1:27 pm
Anyone hear the interview of Milton Bradley on Fox’s best damn sports show?
I only heard it on the radio but it was pretty funny. I’m going to paraphrase but Milton said that if a team wants to win they will sign him. He said that when he comes back he is going to do what he always does which is be the best player in the stadium when he steps on the field and he said that he will mis not time because he’s going to rehab so hard he will be back in 6 months despite a completely torn ACL.
It was obvious he was pissed during the interview because Rob Dibble and Rodney Pete were asking him questions he didn’t want to asnswer but he came off as the cockiest jerk ever. It’s pretty interesting. I think you can see a video of it at foxsports.com but I can’t watch it at work so I’m not totally positive.
Milton with a huge chip on his shoulder could be either a potential MVP canidate or could be the kind of guy that takes a chainsaw and guts the clubhouse.
September 28, 2007 at 1:40 pm
#60: Even that doesn’t always help. Many people would say that a 20-year-old who hits .322/.386/.467 in Triple-A and who is widely regarded as a top-shelf prospect should have a terrific big-league career. Sean Burroughs would argue otherwise.
On a more general note, I’ll quote Bill James again:
This is from the 1983 Baseball Abstract, and James is talking about Floyd Bannister, but the point remains: The goal isn’t to get Matt Antonelli to the big leagues as soon as possible, it’s to put him in a position that maximizes his chances for long-term success so that he can continue to be an asset to the club well into the future.
For as lousy a year as NOG has had, I think I’d rather see his option picked up than Antonelli handed the job on the basis of half a season at Double-A. At the very least, we know that NOG can play a major-league second base. Seriously, what’s the hurry?
September 28, 2007 at 1:45 pm
We want instant payoff, Geoff. C’mon!
September 28, 2007 at 1:53 pm
64: Rany Jazayerli wrote something similar about the Royals a couple of years ago. He felt one of the key ways to improve that team was to deliberately hold prospects back, so their peak seasons would more closely coincide with their cheap seasons. Also, try not to draft Colt Griffin.
I don’t know if that holds for a guy like Antonelli or a situation like the Padres. Getting his feet wet next year, before Jake’s walk year, might prepare him to contribute much more in 2009.
September 28, 2007 at 1:56 pm
I think the idea is that the foot-wetting will take longer if AAA is skipped entirely.
rather have an earlier, longer foot-wetting period or a later, shorter one? who knows.
September 28, 2007 at 2:02 pm
#65: LOL, I forgot about that.
#66: My hope for Antonelli is that he gets some exposure next year, maybe after the ASB, but that he isn’t counted on to step in and produce out of spring training. I’d love to see him get at least 300 PA at Triple-A. I suspect (based on no actual evidence) that he could probably hold his own at the big-league level if needed, but pushing him hard because — well, just because — smacks of desperation to me.
September 28, 2007 at 2:03 pm
You know Antonelli doesn’t have to spend the entire year in the minors for the Padres to save a year before he’s a FA…he just has to spend about a month to guarantee they have him for 7 years.
September 28, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Quoting Sean Burroughs stats doesn’t mean that minor league numbers don’t translate for the vast majority of players. Please see Kouzmanoff, Kevin
September 28, 2007 at 2:04 pm
67: It was reported, here I think, that Alderson said a player who has mastered AA is basically ready, and that AAA doesn’t tell you much. Not saying I agree with that completely, but it seems to be an organizational principle.
If they bring in somebody better than Blum, I don’t have any problem holding Antonelli in AAA.
September 28, 2007 at 2:05 pm
#69: Right, but the assumption there is that he’ll be ready to produce after a month in the minors. That’s hardly a given based on what we know.
September 28, 2007 at 2:06 pm
I think we should put Hairston at 2nd on days Chris Young pitches
September 28, 2007 at 2:07 pm
#70: How does Kevin Kouzmanoff equate to “the vast majority of players”?
September 28, 2007 at 2:08 pm
70- speaking of kouzmanoff, kevin
I bet his April wouldn’t be as horrible had he spent more than a couple months in AAA.
September 28, 2007 at 2:19 pm
73: Why not just put him in LF all the time instead
September 28, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Keith Law took a shot at DS in his chat today.
September 28, 2007 at 2:21 pm
64: I like giving Antonelli a bit more time, but I dont want to see Marcus back here next year and I dont think the FO liked his play enough to keep him around.
September 28, 2007 at 2:22 pm
70: Please see KK’s April stats. That’s what you get when you drop a AA hitter into a major league lineup. Yes he pulled out of it but he’s (IMO) an exceptional hitter who is going to put up some All Star caliber seasons. He’s also older and has more minor league experience than Antonelli and Headley. And don’t forget Kouz was this close to being sent down to Portland. We got lucky with Kouz, I’d rather not push our luck.
I think Headley and Antonelli will eventually be good players but to count on them to fill two major holes is very risky.
September 28, 2007 at 2:25 pm
77: What did he say?
September 28, 2007 at 2:27 pm
Here’s an interesting piece on Peavy’s pitch selection, over at Baseball Analysts.
September 28, 2007 at 2:27 pm
77.
STFU! Haha what did he say?
September 28, 2007 at 2:28 pm
13: The problem with WARP is that it uses FRAR which is basically garbage.
September 28, 2007 at 2:31 pm
83: Aren’t both Cameron’s and Green’s FRAR in the negative? Maybe I got the wrong metric.
80, 82: An exaggeration. I’ll do a C&P
September 28, 2007 at 2:32 pm
Two parts:
Chris (Chico): How do you project Chase Headley
Keith Law: Average big leaguer, capable defense at third, great OBP guy, hits for some average, not much power.
Adam (Columbus, OH): I know everyone wants their players to be stars, but when you call someone an “average big leaguer” do you think people have an apperciation for just how good that is?
Keith Law: Trust me, I’ll get slammed somewhere for my anti-Padre bias because I didn’t say that Chase Headley is the bestest third base prospect ever. Average big leaguers aren’t that easy to come by.
September 28, 2007 at 2:33 pm
31: http://tinyurl.com/yr74rv looks more like average than “bad.”
September 28, 2007 at 2:35 pm
85 - he’s such a blowhard. How does he command a salary at the Worldwide Leader. Half the posters on this blog could do his job better and they all keep up with baseball in their spare time.
September 28, 2007 at 2:40 pm
Wow, talk about some insane numbers…
I am currently sitting on a BA of .833 and have a SLG% 2.083. They should call me K-Rod in the San Diego Corporate Softball League haha.
Ever think of a Ducksnorts softball team GY? Could be fun.
September 28, 2007 at 2:42 pm
84: Don’t know what their FRARs are, but I doubt they’re negative. Their FRAAs might be, though. Both are garbage stats, but FRAR is worse because the concept of replacement level fielding is just stupid.
September 28, 2007 at 2:44 pm
I’m thinking of FRAA, which our pal Mr. Law doesn’t like either.