| time: | 7:10 p.m. PT |
| tv: | 4SD |
| sp: | Jake Peavy (9-2, 2.14) vs Brad Penny (10-1, 2.04) |
| pre: | Padres.com, SI.com |
Saturday night’s game is being hyped as a battle to see who will start the All-Star game. I don’t know about all that, but I do know that this should be a fun pitching matchup.
A couple things about Brad Penny’s line this year jump out at me. First, he’s been remarkably consistent from month to month:
| IP/GS | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats are through games of June 29, 2007, and are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. | |||||||||
| Apr | 6.47 | 8.35 | 0.00 | 3.62 | 3.06 | 1.95 | .256 | .336 | .333 |
| May | 6.28 | 7.17 | 0.00 | 2.39 | 7.65 | 2.15 | .216 | .272 | .266 |
| Jun | 7.13 | 7.82 | 0.50 | 1.26 | 6.81 | 2.02 | .237 | .265 | .351 |
Penny has allowed more than four runs in a game just once (May 18 at Anaheim, his only loss of the season), and both homers he’s allowed came on June 3 against the Pirates (Adam LaRoche and Jason Bay if you’re wondering). This is not the same pitcher that posted a 6.25 ERA in the second half of 2006.
The other facet of Penny’s game this year that I find a bit surprising in light of his reputation as someone who falls apart when trouble rears its head is the way he has shut down batters with runners in scoring position. Opponents are hitting .188/.258/.200 against Penny with RISP in 90 plate appearances. His numbers last year in the same situation: .315/.374/.492 in 206 plate appearances.
Let’s face it: Penny is a stud. He makes me wish that Paul DePodesta had never been GM of the Dodgers.
What about Jake Peavy? After a blistering May (0.79 ERA, 425 OPS), he’s come back to Earth a bit in June (3.69, 674). He also has assumed Chris Young‘s title of Road Warrior (0.88, 405 in six starts away from Petco).
Finally, and apropos of nothing, here’s one more table for you:
| R/G | HR/G | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | Opp | SD | Opp | |
| Stats are through games of June 29, 2007, and are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. | ||||
| Apr | 4.42 | 4.08 | 0.96 | 0.58 |
| May | 4.04 | 2.48 | 0.85 | 0.41 |
| Jun | 4.84 | 3.68 | 1.04 | 0.56 |
| tot | 4.42 | 3.40 | 0.95 | 0.51 |
When has this team ever outscored and outhomered the opposition the way it is doing now? Go Padres!
Or not our…
Peavy vs. Penny. Padres vs. dodgers. 1st place on the line. 49 comments in the 8th inning? wtf? I’m guessing everyone drove to SmellA for the game.
49. Oops I’m an idiot, you’ve got the sacrifice fly opportunity. Sorry. Still not sure I would bunt there though. This is a left handed pitcher? might have been better to have Giles steal third, especially once Cameron came up
Heck Agon could have put down the squeeze….
But you also sacrifice the chance to advance the runner on a hit or a normal out.
I was just reading the other day how bunting a guy from 2nd to 3rd is a terrible percentage play. It might make sense in a low scoring game depending on who’s up next. Personally I would never bunt in that situation.
Yes overall a bunt is an ineffective play….BUT we’re talking about the 8th inning!!!! At some point the actual game has to be taken into account.
Are you really expecting a big inning off the Dodgers best relievers?
56: Hey, I was reading about that too! The conclusion I read is that bunting isn’t as horrible as many sabremetricians make it out to be, but bunting in that specific situation is bad.
If we had guys coming up that hit for average, I might not bunt, but we don’t have anyone on our roster that hits for average (all the sabermaticians will be rolling their eyes about now).
1-1 game in the eighth, with our lineup, I’d probably bunt him to third….
See, I don’t even know how to spell sabremetricians
59: But Adrian strikes out a bunch, and he actually does hit a lot of singles, so he’s not a guy that it’s hugely advantageous to bunt the guy over in front of. Plus Marcus can hit the ball the other way, which would advance the runner most of the time, and he had a huge platoon advantage against Beimel.
Is it just me, or does Steve Quis sometimes sound like he is working a local Dodger telecast?
Wow that’s really weak. We score from second on a long fly.
Demote Heath Bell! Trade him quickly! Get him out of the eighth inning!
If your Mark Giles, you have GOT to AT LEAST advance that runner. I would bunt in that situation as it was the 8th inning, but I can see letting him swing. Three situations that should have resulted in additional runs. D*%#!!!
The Dogs better not score with their lead-off double…
Why does it seem that half the people who post on this board are named Mark?
I registered my mock disgust with Bell in 64, but I think I should seriously say that walking Furcal was really bad.
#67: Not sure.
Two productive outs for the Dogs,,,
Great final two pitches for Bell. Wow.
Didn’t have a good feeling about that. C’mon KG. One time!!!
Or Josh…or Kouz…
The Padres seem to do better when I disparage them, so to do my part for the team, Greene will probably strike out on a slider out of the strike zone and Kouz will probably pop out on the first pitch.
Great take by Bard.
We really need KGs long ball about now.
Seriously WTF is Black doing tonight?
Guess we’re not the only ones that can walk a leadoff hitter late in the game. PR for Bard, and perhaps a steal?
He looked safe to me.
I don’t agree with that stratagy.
He definitely looked safe in that super slow motion replay, but it was so close I don’t blame the ump for calling him out.
Looks like it’ll take three hits to get one in tonight.
Bell is throwing smoke.
Very nice play by KG and Adrian.
The great part about the play by Khalil was the easy hop he gave Adrian on his throw.
Extra innings. Now what? Linebrink or Merideth? Or, Hoffman?
Hoffman. After we score here. Somehow.
v-e-r-n…v-e-r-n. My main man Vern. These are definatly not my underwear.
Black needs to understand that sometimes not making a move is a viable decision. Khalil is an extreme flyball hitter, there was little chance of a DP there. He can’t bunt so Quis’ idea was just dumb. The best play was to let Khalil hit. The likely worst outcome was as strikeout. Why run against a catcher that is good at throwing out runners?
With a man on 1st and a good bunter at the plate I would always bunt in the late innings of a close game. The only guys on this team I trust to bunt are Maddux and Cheo anyway.
As for not bunting with a man on 2nd, I’m not looking for a big inning. I just think the gain from going from 2nd to 3rd is not worth an out.
Wow, a real fan would have put the ball in his glove while he was down.
Padre hitters need to work good at bats to get Saito out of there after only one inning, because it is freaking hard to score off him.
67:Mark my words, everyone is trying to leave their mark.
Wow, that broken bat was a spinning buzzsaw of death. Saito dodged a bullet there.
89: Just kidding, Saito is up second this inning, so he’s almost surely done. The Padres have now burned through the Dodgers’ two best relievers, who are waaay better than everyone else in their bullpen.
89. Eleven pitches not what you had in mind?
Ugh, I don’t like Linebrink in these situations; he’s vulnerable to the solo home run.
There was another one of those pitches where the catcher sets up outside and Linebrink misses but hits the inside corner, but is still called a ball.
I’m not a Linebrink fan, but he is looking pretty good tonight.
Wow, where did this Linebrink changeup come from? He should throw that more often.
Cameron had a great at bat against Tsao last night. Let’s see it again tonight, Mike.
This at bat is going to screw Marcus’ pitches per plate appearance stat…
Give Cameron something in….