IGD: Padres @ Dodgers (30 Jun 07)
Sat, Jun 30, 2007
by Geoff Young
| time: | 7:10 p.m. PT |
| tv: | 4SD |
| sp: | Jake Peavy (9-2, 2.14) vs Brad Penny (10-1, 2.04) |
| pre: | Padres.com, SI.com |
Saturday night’s game is being hyped as a battle to see who will start the All-Star game. I don’t know about all that, but I do know that this should be a fun pitching matchup.
A couple things about Brad Penny’s line this year jump out at me. First, he’s been remarkably consistent from month to month:
| IP/GS | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats are through games of June 29, 2007, and are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. | |||||||||
| Apr | 6.47 | 8.35 | 0.00 | 3.62 | 3.06 | 1.95 | .256 | .336 | .333 |
| May | 6.28 | 7.17 | 0.00 | 2.39 | 7.65 | 2.15 | .216 | .272 | .266 |
| Jun | 7.13 | 7.82 | 0.50 | 1.26 | 6.81 | 2.02 | .237 | .265 | .351 |
Penny has allowed more than four runs in a game just once (May 18 at Anaheim, his only loss of the season), and both homers he’s allowed came on June 3 against the Pirates (Adam LaRoche and Jason Bay if you’re wondering). This is not the same pitcher that posted a 6.25 ERA in the second half of 2006.
The other facet of Penny’s game this year that I find a bit surprising in light of his reputation as someone who falls apart when trouble rears its head is the way he has shut down batters with runners in scoring position. Opponents are hitting .188/.258/.200 against Penny with RISP in 90 plate appearances. His numbers last year in the same situation: .315/.374/.492 in 206 plate appearances.
Let’s face it: Penny is a stud. He makes me wish that Paul DePodesta had never been GM of the Dodgers.
What about Jake Peavy? After a blistering May (0.79 ERA, 425 OPS), he’s come back to Earth a bit in June (3.69, 674). He also has assumed Chris Young’s title of Road Warrior (0.88, 405 in six starts away from Petco).
Finally, and apropos of nothing, here’s one more table for you:
| R/G | HR/G | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | Opp | SD | Opp | |
| Stats are through games of June 29, 2007, and are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. | ||||
| Apr | 4.42 | 4.08 | 0.96 | 0.58 |
| May | 4.04 | 2.48 | 0.85 | 0.41 |
| Jun | 4.84 | 3.68 | 1.04 | 0.56 |
| tot | 4.42 | 3.40 | 0.95 | 0.51 |
When has this team ever outscored and outhomered the opposition the way it is doing now? Go Padres!
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June 30, 2007 at 7:26 pm
Penny looks like a half cent so far.
June 30, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Cameron and Bard go “In-N-Out”…double-double, 1-0 Pads.
June 30, 2007 at 7:28 pm
I’m really starting to dislike Juan Pierre
June 30, 2007 at 7:32 pm
Why in the hell did KT bring on Milton Bradley? The guy is nothing but trouble.
June 30, 2007 at 7:32 pm
Juan Pierre is my FAVORITE Dodger, given the differences in payroll having them pay someone who is below replacement level 9M per year does a ton to help even the playing field.
June 30, 2007 at 7:35 pm
HELLO . . . Hello . . . hello
ECHO . . .Echo . . .echo
“Now pitching for Pedro Borbon, Manny Mota . . . Mota . . .Mota”
Where is everyone?
June 30, 2007 at 7:47 pm
Nice slide by OG. I missed that while he was out.
June 30, 2007 at 7:56 pm
Another In and Out Double Double please…
June 30, 2007 at 8:01 pm
Why are we attempting a hit and run with Bard?
June 30, 2007 at 8:02 pm
I love KG but the strikeout on 3 pitches is beginning to get old, as his .270 OBP.
Whoa, Bard was out by a country mile there.
June 30, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Well, that was special (not).
June 30, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Why in the hell do you try and get Bard to steal? Grrrrr. What were they thinking?
June 30, 2007 at 8:02 pm
What the crap just happened?
June 30, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Our manager ran us out of the inning is what happened. Bard clearly was looking for contact and he was out by a mile when Kouz couldn’t get to a pitch low and away in the dirt. So instead of runners at the corners with one out, we had a runner on third with two.
June 30, 2007 at 8:08 pm
I think we all agree that the hit and run is really nice when it works, but we need to remember that Kouz does swing and miss, while Bard is a slow human being…..not a great hit and run combination.
I think once Bradley is here it is going to be clear that Greene needs to hit 8th….that OBP is a killer
June 30, 2007 at 8:12 pm
Maybe Tony Gwynn could have done something with the pitch low and outside that Kouz had to deal with on that play.
June 30, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Didn’t need that. Thanks Nomar. Ack.
June 30, 2007 at 8:21 pm
That was one hell of an at bat by Nomar.
June 30, 2007 at 8:21 pm
That’s a heck of an AB by Nomar….would sure have been nice to score 1st/3rd and 0 outs
June 30, 2007 at 8:22 pm
#19
Jinx
June 30, 2007 at 8:23 pm
Jake was hitting the glove on every pitch to Nomar, including the homer. He was throwing sliders and fastballs but just couldn’t get one by him. Like Mud said, sometimes you just have to tip your cap.
June 30, 2007 at 8:41 pm
Would he have been out if Jake made the play?
June 30, 2007 at 8:42 pm
Does Bard even aim the ball? It seems like he just chucks it down there.
June 30, 2007 at 8:44 pm
I give credit to Bard for that last strike. He shifted position just at the right time and I think that faked out the batter.
June 30, 2007 at 8:46 pm
Not sure if Jake was trying for outside and missed but that was flat out nasty, maybe his best pitch of the night.
June 30, 2007 at 8:49 pm
Penny hasn’t thrown a single pitch other than his fastball in the past two innings. How is Cruz missing those fastballs down the middle when he has to know they’re coming?
Ok, now he throws one to Peavy.
June 30, 2007 at 9:03 pm
I’m hoping Bud will leave Jake in for the duration.
June 30, 2007 at 9:04 pm
Good stop by Kouz. Jake needs a K.
June 30, 2007 at 9:05 pm
Dodgers have two hits in the inning on two ground balls, one that didn’t leave the infield and another that slowly trickled through it. This is how they score runs: stringing together singles.
June 30, 2007 at 9:05 pm
Good stop by Kouz.
June 30, 2007 at 9:05 pm
Jake needs a K.
June 30, 2007 at 9:06 pm
Umpire seems to have a smaller strike zone at this point
June 30, 2007 at 9:06 pm
Where the hell did that miss?
June 30, 2007 at 9:07 pm
re 33-down the middle at the belt doesn’t count
June 30, 2007 at 9:07 pm
Holy Santa Maria!!! Thank you Jake Peavy!
June 30, 2007 at 9:08 pm
That was mildly huge, and now Penny is out
June 30, 2007 at 9:08 pm
#34: I guess you’re right. WTF.
June 30, 2007 at 9:10 pm
Time for Beimel to realize he cann’t be an effective reliever striking out as few hitters as he does. It would also be nice to see OG hit a lefty.
June 30, 2007 at 9:11 pm
OG with a nice dbl. Hope NOG can get him in.
June 30, 2007 at 9:12 pm
ALRIGHT Let’s bring OG home!!! (I’m wicked tired. :-/ )
June 30, 2007 at 9:13 pm
Can’t really understand that, we’ll hit and run with Bard on 1st, but in the 8th Marcus doesn’t have to bunt there?
June 30, 2007 at 9:14 pm
There are so many ways to advance the runner without bunting that it’s not a good play to bunt. Plus Adrian would then have to get the runner in against a lefty.
June 30, 2007 at 9:15 pm
41: Re the stats conversation yesterday, surely someone can come up with a stat about how ineffective the bunt is??? We wouldn’t want AGon to be able to ground out to the right side and get the run home, now would we….
June 30, 2007 at 9:15 pm
No f-ing way!!!
June 30, 2007 at 9:16 pm
Oh well. AGon K’d, so at least we didn’t strand a runner on third with one out again….
June 30, 2007 at 9:16 pm
A run in this inning would be monumental the way this game is going.
June 30, 2007 at 9:16 pm
You have to bunt there. You have to trust the middle of your order to get him in from third with one out. I don’t get it!
June 30, 2007 at 9:17 pm
No run this inning would be vintage 2007 Padres’ baseball.
June 30, 2007 at 9:17 pm
:41 You don’t give up an out just to get someone from 2nd to 3rd with no outs. Especially with the Dogs weak outfield arms, your only advantage to being on third is scoring on a wild pitch…
June 30, 2007 at 9:18 pm
49: our an ground ball to the right side, or a passed ball or a sacrifice fly or a balk or a slow roller to the left side…..
June 30, 2007 at 9:19 pm
Or not our…
June 30, 2007 at 9:19 pm
Peavy vs. Penny. Padres vs. dodgers. 1st place on the line. 49 comments in the 8th inning? wtf? I’m guessing everyone drove to SmellA for the game.
June 30, 2007 at 9:19 pm
49. Oops I’m an idiot, you’ve got the sacrifice fly opportunity. Sorry. Still not sure I would bunt there though. This is a left handed pitcher? might have been better to have Giles steal third, especially once Cameron came up
June 30, 2007 at 9:19 pm
Heck Agon could have put down the squeeze….
June 30, 2007 at 9:19 pm
But you also sacrifice the chance to advance the runner on a hit or a normal out.
June 30, 2007 at 9:19 pm
I was just reading the other day how bunting a guy from 2nd to 3rd is a terrible percentage play. It might make sense in a low scoring game depending on who’s up next. Personally I would never bunt in that situation.
June 30, 2007 at 9:20 pm
Yes overall a bunt is an ineffective play….BUT we’re talking about the 8th inning!!!! At some point the actual game has to be taken into account.
Are you really expecting a big inning off the Dodgers best relievers?
June 30, 2007 at 9:20 pm
56: Hey, I was reading about that too! The conclusion I read is that bunting isn’t as horrible as many sabremetricians make it out to be, but bunting in that specific situation is bad.
June 30, 2007 at 9:21 pm
If we had guys coming up that hit for average, I might not bunt, but we don’t have anyone on our roster that hits for average (all the sabermaticians will be rolling their eyes about now).
1-1 game in the eighth, with our lineup, I’d probably bunt him to third….
June 30, 2007 at 9:23 pm
See, I don’t even know how to spell sabremetricians
June 30, 2007 at 9:23 pm
59: But Adrian strikes out a bunch, and he actually does hit a lot of singles, so he’s not a guy that it’s hugely advantageous to bunt the guy over in front of. Plus Marcus can hit the ball the other way, which would advance the runner most of the time, and he had a huge platoon advantage against Beimel.
June 30, 2007 at 9:25 pm
Is it just me, or does Steve Quis sometimes sound like he is working a local Dodger telecast?
June 30, 2007 at 9:25 pm
Wow that’s really weak. We score from second on a long fly.
June 30, 2007 at 9:26 pm
Demote Heath Bell! Trade him quickly! Get him out of the eighth inning!
June 30, 2007 at 9:26 pm
If your Mark Giles, you have GOT to AT LEAST advance that runner. I would bunt in that situation as it was the 8th inning, but I can see letting him swing. Three situations that should have resulted in additional runs. D*%#!!!
June 30, 2007 at 9:26 pm
The Dogs better not score with their lead-off double…
June 30, 2007 at 9:27 pm
Why does it seem that half the people who post on this board are named Mark?
June 30, 2007 at 9:30 pm
I registered my mock disgust with Bell in 64, but I think I should seriously say that walking Furcal was really bad.
June 30, 2007 at 9:30 pm
#67: Not sure.
June 30, 2007 at 9:30 pm
Two productive outs for the Dogs,,,
June 30, 2007 at 9:31 pm
Great final two pitches for Bell. Wow.
June 30, 2007 at 9:33 pm
Didn’t have a good feeling about that. C’mon KG. One time!!!
Or Josh…or Kouz…
June 30, 2007 at 9:34 pm
The Padres seem to do better when I disparage them, so to do my part for the team, Greene will probably strike out on a slider out of the strike zone and Kouz will probably pop out on the first pitch.
June 30, 2007 at 9:35 pm
Great take by Bard.
June 30, 2007 at 9:36 pm
We really need KGs long ball about now.
June 30, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Seriously WTF is Black doing tonight?
June 30, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Guess we’re not the only ones that can walk a leadoff hitter late in the game. PR for Bard, and perhaps a steal?
June 30, 2007 at 9:37 pm
He looked safe to me.
June 30, 2007 at 9:37 pm
I don’t agree with that stratagy.
June 30, 2007 at 9:39 pm
He definitely looked safe in that super slow motion replay, but it was so close I don’t blame the ump for calling him out.
June 30, 2007 at 9:42 pm
Looks like it’ll take three hits to get one in tonight.
June 30, 2007 at 9:43 pm
Bell is throwing smoke.
June 30, 2007 at 9:44 pm
Very nice play by KG and Adrian.
June 30, 2007 at 9:45 pm
The great part about the play by Khalil was the easy hop he gave Adrian on his throw.
June 30, 2007 at 9:48 pm
Extra innings. Now what? Linebrink or Merideth? Or, Hoffman?
June 30, 2007 at 9:50 pm
Hoffman. After we score here. Somehow.
June 30, 2007 at 9:50 pm
v-e-r-n…v-e-r-n. My main man Vern. These are definatly not my underwear.
June 30, 2007 at 9:51 pm
Black needs to understand that sometimes not making a move is a viable decision. Khalil is an extreme flyball hitter, there was little chance of a DP there. He can’t bunt so Quis’ idea was just dumb. The best play was to let Khalil hit. The likely worst outcome was as strikeout. Why run against a catcher that is good at throwing out runners?
With a man on 1st and a good bunter at the plate I would always bunt in the late innings of a close game. The only guys on this team I trust to bunt are Maddux and Cheo anyway.
As for not bunting with a man on 2nd, I’m not looking for a big inning. I just think the gain from going from 2nd to 3rd is not worth an out.
Wow, a real fan would have put the ball in his glove while he was down.
June 30, 2007 at 9:51 pm
Padre hitters need to work good at bats to get Saito out of there after only one inning, because it is freaking hard to score off him.
June 30, 2007 at 9:53 pm
67:Mark my words, everyone is trying to leave their mark.
June 30, 2007 at 9:54 pm
Wow, that broken bat was a spinning buzzsaw of death. Saito dodged a bullet there.
June 30, 2007 at 9:55 pm
89: Just kidding, Saito is up second this inning, so he’s almost surely done. The Padres have now burned through the Dodgers’ two best relievers, who are waaay better than everyone else in their bullpen.
June 30, 2007 at 9:55 pm
89. Eleven pitches not what you had in mind?
June 30, 2007 at 9:57 pm
Ugh, I don’t like Linebrink in these situations; he’s vulnerable to the solo home run.
June 30, 2007 at 10:00 pm
There was another one of those pitches where the catcher sets up outside and Linebrink misses but hits the inside corner, but is still called a ball.
June 30, 2007 at 10:01 pm
I’m not a Linebrink fan, but he is looking pretty good tonight.
June 30, 2007 at 10:01 pm
Wow, where did this Linebrink changeup come from? He should throw that more often.
June 30, 2007 at 10:04 pm
Cameron had a great at bat against Tsao last night. Let’s see it again tonight, Mike.
June 30, 2007 at 10:06 pm
This at bat is going to screw Marcus’ pitches per plate appearance stat…
June 30, 2007 at 10:11 pm
Give Cameron something in….
June 30, 2007 at 10:11 pm
That was a very generous strike.
June 30, 2007 at 10:12 pm
He got the fastball in and missed it.
June 30, 2007 at 10:21 pm
That was on Barrett. Martin got a bad jump.
June 30, 2007 at 10:21 pm
still is kind of funny to watch a catcher run so much, Martin is a heck of an athlete
June 30, 2007 at 10:22 pm
lol lol lol
June 30, 2007 at 10:23 pm
Bard doesn’t make that play. Thank you KT for getting Barrett.
June 30, 2007 at 10:24 pm
Why was Martin running???
June 30, 2007 at 10:28 pm
Wow…we don’t want to walk Gonzo, do we???