first pitch: 5:05 p.m., PT
television: FOX
matchup: Jeff Weaver (8-14, 5.76 ERA) vs Tom Glavine (15-7, 3.82 ERA)
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While the Tigers were busy beating the A’s again in Oakland, the first game of the NLCS was postponed due to rain. They’ll try it again tonight, with the same scheduled starters.
Former Padres in St. Louis? That would be backup catcher Gary Bennett. The Cards have no San Diego products on their roster.
The Mets have left-handers Oliver Perez and Royce Ring (SDSU). Plus they don’t have Albert Pujols, which is enough to get me behind their cause.
Enjoy the game!
FYI, Towers was on the radio stating that Branyan’s option would be picked up. Really the only other notable item was that Carrillo may challenge for a rotation spot in the spring.
That must mean Carillo’s making good progress coming back. That’s pretty good news.
I’m assuming that the Pads will pay the “buy-out” on Klesko and Piazza, with Klesko walking and Piazza renegotiating. I also believe that they will pick up Cameron’s option. Hopefully, they use the money they save renegotiating Piazza’s contract to resign Roberts for next year. Greene and Bard get arbitration if they can’t agree to terms. Giles, Peavy, Hoffy, CY, and Linebrink are all under contract for next year. Hensley, Meredith, Cassidy, Gonzalez, Barfield, and Bowen are all under the Padres control. I expect that all of them to receive a raise. I’d like to see Hensley, Meredith, Gonzalez and Barfield locked up for at least 2 years). As for the remaining free agents, I’d look to sign Woody and Embree and let the others test the market.
As far as free agents to bring in…I’d like to see them make a serious run at the Japanese pitcher and 3rd baseman. I think the Dodgers will sign Zito, and let Maddux go, so I’d make a run at Maddux.
Other moves…I’d dangle Linebrink, Greene, and possibly Giles and Hensley as trade-bait and see what fish bite. They can package Thompson, Johnson, Sledge, and McNulty in a trade to land a bigger fish as necessary. I’d like to see Carrillo with the club next year as well, but only as a consistent #4 or 5 starter (I’d hate to see him bounce up and down like Thompson did this year).
From the “Better Late Than Never Dept.”:
Bellhorn, Manny Alexander and Williamson were released today. Justin Hampson, LHP, was claimed from Colorado.
It should be an interesting off season, to say the least. I don’t think Piazza will be back. He’s a much better fit for an AL team and now that he’s shown he can still hit a little he’ll get some offers. I haven’t looked at the numbers but I have a feeling some of his resurgence is an illusion. I seem to remember a lot of ground ball hits that could have just as easily been fielded. He still has some pop but I think he’s more likely to hit .230 next year than .280. I don’t like us carrying 3 catchers either, better to just stick with Bard and Bowen and get some more versatility.
I’d love to see Matsuzaka in San Diego but reports are the posting fee could go as high as $30 million, although $20-$25 million is more likely and that’s just to get the right to negotiate a contract. He’s a Scott Boras client so you have all the same issues as Zito, plus the uncertainty that a Japanese pitcher brings. Probably cheaper to go with Zito. What about Jason Schmidt? Isn’t he a free agent?
Iwamura (the 3rd baseman) is probably a lot more realistic and a good fit but he strikes out a ton. That could be a problem when the team already has Cameron and Branyan.
I’m ok with DR leaving if we can replace him with Soriano, Sheffield, El Caballo or someone like that. Ben Johnson is not the answer, the club needs a serious offensive upgrade and LF is the logical spot. This is our big chance to get a legitimate offensive force, we can’t cheap out and settle for Doc and Giles again. One of the two has to go.
I’m ok with Giles leading off though, getting on base is his one strong suit and he’s good at breaking up the double play.
A rotation of Young, Peavy, Hensley and say Gil Meche and another vet or maybe Carrillo should be pretty good.
What do you guys think about bringing Chan Ho back if we can get him for cheap? He did an ok job and he can at least eat up innings or come out of the pen. He’s not a horrible pitcher, just not worth the contract he was under.
Well there goes that idea!!!
http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/9723454/rss
I still think we should talk to Tampa Bay about a 3rd baseman. Joel Guzman could be amazing!
If we are out of the Soriano running and it’s obvious we are, I don’t think we can let DR walk. Move Giles and save our leadoff cataylist!
Maybe Soriano doesn’t like D.C. that much.
It’s not the money, it’s the term.
So, SD to Soriano, 3 yrs/$42 mil? Sure is a lot of dough.
Soriano’s not happening on SA’s watch, if those are the kind of numbers we’re talking. Afraid I have to agree with him. I’d rather keep DR and platoon him with somebody else with some clout. Maybe Moises Alou. Platooning them might keep them both healthy for the year.
Carlos Lee is out there, but I think he’s going to be thinking Soriano type money.
The Nats are idiots. Why didn’t they trade him at the deadline? Instead of getting several young players they’re going to get one draft pick?
I don’t see us pulling off any great trades. We just don’t have much to give. No stud prospects, no multiple players at one position, no solid vets on affordable contracts. Who’s going to want Giles? Even Khalil’s value is down due to the injuries. Maybe Hensley and Linebrink together could get a decent third baseman.
I think we’re going to see even more turnover than last year and Bochy is going to be among the departed. I don’t have a problem with Boch but it’s time for some new blood, a different approach. A hungry young manager or a guy with some fire. No Dusty Baker please.
#3. Piazza comes back if he wants to catch another season, is my guess. I think we’re one of the few teams that will give him a nearly full-time catching position. Plus, I think he liked playing for Bochy and Bochy’s handling of him. (I remember Piazza implying that Willie Randolph wouldn’t have done that for him and spoke highly of Bochy’s experience as a catcher.) Those little flare ups with Jake don’t help, though.
If he wants to make more money or to cut a longer term deal, I think it will be with an AL team to DH.
I also think he would want to wait to make sure Boch is here, though.
#5
I wouldn’t mind having Chan Ho back, but it all depends on whether he’s able to get his leg strength back in the off-season. As a result of his health problems he’s lost too much muscle mass, I don’t think he can get it back and fix the mechanics by Spring Training. If he does come back, it will not be as a starter until later in the season, IMHO. I didn’t know that Matsuzaka was a Boras client…well that sucks.
Official word that Boch is available:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6054546
I said from day 1 I thought Soriano was going to get $15 per… But that’s only $1mil per year more than he just rejected.
The Japanese 3B worries me as well w/ his K-rate…
Lee scares me too. Too old, not patient (of course neither is Soriano), and his numbers were put up in the offense-friendly NL Central (Soriano had RFK as a home park), and Lee’s body suggests he could age ungracefully…
Seriously guys, how cool would this lineup be:
Giles
Barfield
Soriano (if he wants to lead off, let him)
Gonzalez
Piazza
Cameron
Branyan
Greene
???
We could upgrade 3B as well…
#8: I’d agree that keeping Doc and platooning him, probably with Ben Johnson, is a better option than signing Alfonso to big money.
However, since the Padres need to have a bigger bat at the OF spot, keeping both Doc and Giles wouldn’t work.
I think Doc would get a much better offer from another team.
Piazza is probably not going to sign if he concedes that his catching days are over. I’m not into carrying 3 catchers for another season, even if one of them is Piazza.
I think the Padres need to consider trading all the big DH/OF bats in the AAA for some young arms and perhaps then packaging some of the arms for a third baseman.
I’m sure some AL teams are looking for a big bopper for DH. The question is whether they’ll be looking at our AAA bats.
Chan Ho Park wouldn’t be bad as the #4/5 starter. However, what would Matt Thompson do then? Peavy, Young, a certain FA lefty, Hensley/Park. Looks good on paper.
Go METS. I hope somebody bean Pujols.
Glavine just threw 9 pitches for the first 3 outs.
14: Worrying about what Mike Thompson does next year is right below “Get front-row tickets to The Vagina Monologues” on my list.
You have “that” on your list? Wow.
#9: I think you are underestimating Hensley’s value. This is a guy that finished 28th in all of baseball in pitcher VORP (from baseball prospectus) at age 26. He’ll be extremely cheap for several more years.
Unfortunately, at this point I think any free agent signing is going to do more long term harm than good. Soriano is coming off by far his best year and will get paid for that, but there’s no way he continues that level of production. Lee is going to age harshly. Zito’s peripherals are unimpressive, that’s a lot of money for a number 2 or 3 pitcher. Schmidt is going to cost a ton, and is 34 and had a below average season last year. All these guys seem too risky or expensive over the long term for a mid-market team like the Padres.
The one guy I would really love to have is Aramis Ramirez. But he needs to opt out of his contract with the Cubs and not sign an extension.
Weaver is throwing lots of pitches so far.
Is there any club out there with a bopper for an OF in the AAA that’s blocked by the current player in the ML? I bet the Padres can try to trade for that guy.
From Rotoworld:
According to FOXSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal, the Padres will allow Bruce Bochy to interview with other clubs.
It’s unclear whether they’d seek compensation if another club wants to hire Bochy. The Giants and Cubs figure to be more interested than the Nationals or Rangers. Bochy is due about $1.9 million in 2007, the final year of his contract with the Padres. Should Bochy depart, it’s possible the Padres would be interested in bringing in A’s third-base coach Ron Washington to take over.
First off, I’d hate to see Boch go. But bringing up Ron Washington’s name is interesting. If I recall Moneyball correctly, wasn’t he the coach who (with Ray Durham) explained how little the A’s tried stealing bases? Could it be that if we were to bring him in, we’d try to be a quick, stolen-base oriented team, one that could cover Petco’s big outfield?
I hope not.
Re 12:
That Bochy would be allowed to look elsewhere was reported yesterday (see the IGD thread). Don’t read too much into it. After all, these are the same reporters who told us Torre was gone and Piniella was in. No accountability for poor reporting.
I can see few reasons why Bochy would want to leave San Diego. Young players, good pitching staff, low pressure, a good core group, and lots of money to spend this year. He is also a favorite of Moores.
One reason he might take a better offer is if it is a long-term contract that pays him big money. If Bochy figures next year is his last with the Padres, he might jump on a good offer from another team he’s interested in (like Towers exploring the D’Backs).
Personally, I think both he and Towers will be back. Bochy has proven himself a top manager and will not have a shortage of offers next year, either, so there’s no hurry to leave SD for Texas (Boch doesn’t seem like an AL guy) or Chicago (arrgh).
Wasn’t Ron Washington the designated runner on the Finley A’s? j/k
Bochy leaving begs the question of who we’d like to see replace him. I don’t know anything about Ron Washington but I’m skeptical that SA would bring in a guy who wants to run a lot. There’s been some criticism of Bochy’s game calling but who’s out there that is actually good at that? I can’t think of any managers that consistently get favorable reviews for their in-game decisions.
I think Bochy is actually above average at in-game moves, but that’s more of an indictment of other managers than praise for Bochy. If Bochy leaves does that mean Ballsley and Rettenmund go too?
Anybody watching the game? Beltran just hit a serious bomb off Weaver.
I don’t understand the fascination with Soriano, especially at the estimated price.
He brings slugging, and I understand that’s what the Padres need the most, but he’s a vastly overrated player. That’s why the Yankees and Rangers were glad to be rid of him. He hits homers and steals bases, which are things that fans notice.
But he doesn’t walk much. He’s a poor baserunner, unless you only look at steals when evaluating baserunning. He is a poor fielder at any position because he doesn’t care about fielding. He doesn’t even pretend to care about it. The reason he had 20 assists this season was because he was so slow getting to the ball in the first place. He’s not a smart player, by almost any measure.
I lived in the District and watched him play this year and wrote about baseball. All he cares about his getting his home run and stolen base totals. He ran around the bases like a crazy person during the last month just trying to get to 40 steals. Trust me, you don’t want this guy in San Diego.
re: 23
“Don’t read too much into it. After all, these are the same reporters who told us Torre was gone and Piniella was in. No accountability for poor reporting.”
At the time, the Torre-Piniella story may have been totally true. Sometimes, owners and teams put stories out there to see how they fly, to see public reaction. Just because a story isn’t true today doesn’t mean it wasn’t true last week.
Sources have told the Chicago Sun-Times that the Cubs remain interested in Padres manager Bruce Bochy for their managerial position.
According to the Sun-Times, Cubs GM Jim Hendry sought permission to interview Bochy four years ago, before Dusty Baker was hired, but was denied. However, there is a feeling that Padres CEO Sandy Alderson might grant permission this time.
Bochy, 51, whose team was just eliminated from the playoffs by the St. Louis Cardinals, has been with the Padres’ organization for 24 years a player, coach and manager and has strong ties to GM Kevin Towers. But there’s a chance Towers might not be retained.
Fox sports.com link:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6054546
I think the point is that Sandy will only let people go if they get other jobs elsewhere just so that the publicity of firing them doesn’t go over, I don’t have a problem like that. It could be interesting as an offseason.
re: 29
That link was put up in comment 12.
oops, I just saw it recently
Re 27
That’s a convenient excuse. “Well, we so sure about the story that we printed it as the top story, and it was true according to reliable sources, but then… well, our sources were wrong.” I guess I am a little more cynical and less trusting than you about the media, Kevin.
Does anyone really think that Cashman or Steinbrenner are going to base their decisions about keeping Torre or hiring Piniella based on perceived public reaction? As with the A-Rod situation— who was happily chatting with Jeter time and again on the field during the playoffs — the media is trying to make a big story out of something that isn’t there. All they have to print is “Sources say…” (my buddy down at the bar, for instance) and they feel their investigation is complete. Not much more reliable than a tabloid.
Go back and take a look at how many stories there were about Torre being released and Piniella taking over. I will be curious to see how many stories there will be by reporters explaining why they were dead wrong with their attention-grabbing headlines. Maybe it’s time for the media to re-evaluate their sources.
As for Bochy, if the Pads let him go — and by giving him permisssion to speak to other clubs Alderson is taking full responsibility for next year’s club upon himself — they had better at least reach the NLCS.
2-0. Glavine can still get it done. If Prior and Wood hadn’t injured themselves (or was it Dusty’s fault?), along with Zambrano, the Cubs could have been the Braves of the 90s. Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux, Avery, Schmidt… I hope the Pads keep Peavy, Young and Hensley together for a while. Goos starters are hard to come by. I wouldn’t mind seeing Wells and Woody back (for incentive-laden contracts), either. Give the young guys one more year, and if someone goes down, they can bring up guys and give them a shot. Have a feeling Woody’s gone, though. And Wells is retiring.
Any news on Estes? Wonder where he’ll be. Hopefully, he’ll be in spring training for the Pads.
Estes hasn’t really been a good pitcher for a while, so I’d hate to count on him when he was coming off of TJ surgery.
I think a key this off season is going to be improving the last 2 spots in the rotation…Woody pitched in good luck this past season and Thompson was close to league average….if they can get someone significantly better then league average they’ll come out far ahead.
Mark
re: 33
You couldn’t be more wrong. I’m probably as cynical as they come, but I’m also a memeber of the media, and I know what I’m talking about on this subject, and you don’t.
No, I don’t think Steinbrenner based his decision on public perception, but when the original story came out, Cashman and other Yankees executives had not endorsed Torre in their conversations with Steinbrenner.
You’re wrong that all newspapers have to do is print “sources say.” The large majority of media outlets do that with great care and make sure they have legit sources. I know because have been a journalist for 10 years.
“Go back and take a look at how many stories there were about Torre being released and Piniella taking over.” — As far as I know, only the New York Daily News reported this story. ESPNews and the rest may have reported and attributed the Daily News, but that’s not a lot of stories. That’s one source.
“— they had better at least reach the NLCS.” — Or what? Or you will post again? It never makes sense when fans say they better do this or do that. The last time I check John Moores and Sandy Alderson can do anything they want. As CEO, I’m sure Alderson takes full responsibility for the team every season.
Well said, Kevin. The media is on the short list of convenient targets for people who have lots of opinions and few facts to back them.
IMHO, at least 75% of a baseball managers time and energy is spent on dealing with the psychology, emotion, and “crisis management” associated with the individual players as they relate to team dynamics on and off the field. The remaining 25% of the managers time is teaching/coaching the players, preparation for games, and implementation of game-time strategy in response to events on the field.
Again, IMHO, Bochy is one of the best managers in the MLB when it comes to the 75% of managing not related to actually preparing for or playing the game (where he’s middle-of-the-road). I don’t think Alderson and Bochy conflict on the 75% Bochy does well, but on the 25% he does average. If Alderson is indeed transforming the Padres into a “moneyball” style of team, then the “moneyball book” will largely determine what a manager will or should do while performing that 25% of their job pertaining to actually playing the game.
If Bochy concedes the 25% to Alderson, then Alderson would be happy to have him stay for the 75% of the job that he does really well. Alderson will let Bochy interview elsewhere to allow Bochy to either move on to maintain his control over 100% of the role of manager or choose keep control of 75% by giving up some control on the remaining 25% and remain in San Diego.
I give Bochy his due, when given lemons he’s done his best to make lemonade. Sometimes it’s a little weak; sometimes it’s a little sour; sometimes it’s a little too sweet; but, the better the lemons, the better the drink every time. One thing, though, it’s never come out perfect (’98 was sure close, though).
Re 33
So you are saying that every major news source used one source — the NY Daliy News — as its source for its headline? Didn’t they bother to check where the NY Daily News got the story? Or did they just go to press because they liked the way it sounded? It’s either one or the other. If the former is the case, then they obviously — as they were proven dead wrong — chose a very poor source to quote and lead with. If the latter is the case, then it was just another case of the media wanting attention-grabbing headlines without reliable information. A failure to endorse a manager one day after the playoffs is not tantamount to being replaced.
While I agree with your point about fact-checking, that is entirely different from quoting reliable sources. A fact can be verified — that is why the media has to be careful. Newpapers knew the Torre story would just blow over as another case of a bad source or bad reporting — no one was going to sue. Regardless of the motive, they were wrong, and more than likely, they were careless.
As for “— they had better at least reach the NLCS,” as Geoff said, he fully expects the Padres to reach the World Series within the next two years, and I expect that many SD fans feel the same way. If the manager and general manager were to leave or be forced out — as the media have been speculating since Alderson’s arrival — one would assume that the GM believes that he can bring in better people. The Padres won the division the last two years, they have a core group of superior pitchers and promising young players, plus a fair budget to toy with this offseason. If the team performed any worse than the previous two seasons, I would say the majority of the responsibilty would fall on the GM’s shoulders. But, then again, maybe the media would just choose to blame it on poor in-game managing, write a column about not allowing the manager on the plane ride home, and the GM’s woes would be forgotten.
As for what I could do, my post was an expression of how I feel if they didn’t make it to the NLCS after letting go of a great manager. It wasn’t a threat and I apologize if you read it that way. This is a discussion forum where most posts are written in haste — off the cuff reactions to previous posts or in the midst of a ballgame. I don’t take most of the posts too seriously. I simply hope they spawn further discussion, create lively debate and perhaps serve to edify. I learn a lot here, by no means consider myself an authority on anything, and I appreciate your taking the time to respond to my opinions.
Ａs per a previous suggestion of yours, I will Google stories about Torre being fired and get back to you. Last time I checked on the Baseball Rumors site, it was the lead story across the country. I could be mistaken, though.
When I first read Moneyball like three years ago, Billy Beane always talked about how he wanted a manager who would basically just do what he wanted, and not much else. To me, if Beane wanted a manager that would do EXACTLY as he wanted, then the only manager he would be happy with would be himself. It kinda seems like we may be approaching the same situation with Sandy Alderson.
In other words, if Sandy wants a puppet, Bruce Bochy is not the right man for the job.
I think the following should be duly noted…
We’re bitching about the team not going deeper in the playoffs.
We used to be satisfied with just making the playoffs…who am I kidding, just finishing the season with a “winning” record.
The perception of the team is not “Are we good enough to make the playoffs”. but “We are good enough to ‘go deep’ in the playoffs”. The perception of the fans in San Diego HAS CHANGED. It should soon be followed by the change in perception of the Padres in the baseball fans outside of San Diego (or at least as much as east coast bias will allow).
re 37
Have to give you credit, Kevin. A quick search of about 100 links showed that, despite pretty much every newspaper across the country reporting that Torre was as good as gone
— ESPN’s headline: Torre won’t survive Yanks’ collapse, to be fired — they all attributed their articles to one source: The Daily News. Although this may not be the proper forum, as you have experience in the media, I’d be curious to hear your opinion of this. Good reporting? Fair? As long as someone prints it, everyone else can? I’ll reserve judgment for the time being.
Informal Poll:
Bochy does not return to Pads (fired, alllowed to leave, resigns) and Towers is replaced as GM. Alderson brings in his own staff. The Padres fail to reach the NLCS in either of the two subsequent seasons.
How would you feel?
1) The Padres should do better than last year within the next two years; if not, Alderson is to blame and should be held accountable
2) As long as the Padres reach the playoffs, I wouldn’t care
3) Alderson has little control over what happens on the field, so it’s not his fault
4) I don’t feel fans have any say, so it doesn’t matter how I feel
5) As long as the Padres finish ahead of the Dodgers, I’ll be happy
6) Other (explain)/ add another option
RE 37 GM = President (I’m already subconciously transferring absolute power to SA)
BTW, Geoff, if any of my above posts are inappropriate, please don’t hesitate to let me know. Although it may not seem like it, I do realize this isn’t a forum about “Rhetoric in Sports Media.”
41: The thing that people forget is that a short series is not a good way to decide which team is better. Kansas City swept the Tigers to finish the season and it’s not like the Tigers were resting guys. They were fighting to win their division. The better team does not always win a best three out of five. Hell, the better team doesn’t always win the best 4 out of 7. A .600 team only has like 33% odds of winning three in a row against a .400 team. The .600 team has something like a 70% chance of winning a best 3 out of 5 (I’ll have to actually do the math and check that).
43: I’m just looking to make the playoffs. See 45 for why I think it’s stupid to insist that a team advance in the playoffs for the season to be labeled a success.
45: Actually, it’s more like 84% (with HFA for the .600 team)
Re 45, 46
Fair enough. Your answer would be #2. So if Bochy and Towers were let go and the Pads failed to “reach the playoffs” over the next years, what do you feel (complete speculation, of course) your opinion would be?
48: It depends. If the reason we are missing the playoffs is that LA and Arizona are enjoying the fruits of their farm systems and not because our team has gottten worse, I wouldn’t hold a negative opinion of the move. If Alderson were to let KT and Boch go and the new GM made moves to weaken the team and the new Manager somehow made worse decisions than Bochy has, then I’d hold a negative opinion of the decision.
49: Actually, I wouldn’t judge the decision based on whether we made/missed the playoffs so much as I’d base my judgment on who the replacements were.