first pitch: 4:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (3-6, 4.76 ERA) vs Brad Radke (5-5, 4.13 ERA)
Friars try to avoid getting their arses handed to them yet again by some team from the midwest. The rest is details. I’ll be eating airplane food tomorrow, so it’s probably best that I won’t be able to watch the game. Mmmm, plastic biscuit.
15.2%, not 70.
87.2% probability of scoring here.
That pitch may have been low, but it was SO close.
65% probability of scoring following that horrendous AB by Phil Nevin.
well he got out of it, he walked…
I knew he wasnt getting a hit..
what the heck was that from Nevin?
Two walks by Radke tonight. That makes six for the year.
It was a swinging bunt from Nevin. Mark Sweeney just struck out. 29.2% probability of scoring, now.
well so much for sweeney’s hot streak..
come on sean
Radke gets out of the bases loaded, no outs jam. Anyone care to guess why? Phil Nevin’s swinging bunt on the first pitch. It wouldn’t have even been a strike. Nevin shouldn’t be in the order against right-handed pitchers…
geesh! two nubbers and a strike out with bases loaded. we are snakebit!
Nevin has a .293 OBP against right-handers this season.
66.4% probability of winning…
eh? radke has a total of 5 walks for the season. why take a strike in an rbi situation?
Nevin already singled and hbp..
Average number of runs scored with the bases juiced and none out: 2.3444.
Hank, I said it wasn’t a strike. Also, why take a strike? Because you don’t swing at pitches you can’t hit hard. It’s just plain stupid to swing at a ball you can’t hit hard no matter what the situation.
btw, he also has 38 of his 47 rbi vs right handers
Lawrence gives up his first walk of the evening after strike three is called a check swing.
Hank, RBI’s don’t mean anything.
who are you to say what pitches nevin can and cant hit hard. he was there, u werent
i tell u what rbi mean, it means someone scored a fucking run and right now that is sorely lacking from the padres offense
Just got to the office after my son’s football game. The good guys lost. Hopefully the Padres can hold this lead so I’m not 0-for-2 today.
Hank and Richard
sittin’ in a tree
K-I-S-S-I-N-G.
Why don’t you two lovebirds get a room?
Base hit, DR. I imagine he’ll be running…
Hank, the RBI is highly batting order dependent.
Roberts just got picked off of first. That’ll happen when the pitcher balks.
Richard, you’re right about not swinging at balls you can’t hit hard. But RBI’s do mean SOMETHING. Not as much as people think, but more than nothing.
And Hank, the reason Nevin’ RBI’s are mostly against RHP’s is because he’s faced more RHP’s, and the hitters in front of him are mostly left-handed, and as such are on base more frequently against RHP’s.
BP Basics: Measuring Offense
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562
True, they do mean something. From the BP Basics series:
The thing to understand about counting stats is that, absent supporting information, they’re really only useful at the margins. That’s to say, it’s hard to rack up 140 RBI and somehow stink. Conversely, it’s difficult to log a season’s worth of plate appearances, total 40 RBI and somehow be any good.
Richard, RBI’s are quite batting order dependent, but the reason some hitters have the good fortune of all those RBI opportunities that come in the 3-4-5 slots is because they’re good hitters. All of them except Phil Nevin, of course.
that is why you need BOTH types of hitters. those that get on and those that drive them in.
Ideally, you could have one player do both, but those superstars are hard to come by.
Lawrence: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 0 HR (1 HBP)
That’s true, Hank. You need high-OBP guys and high-SLG guys. Phil Nevin is neither.
He used to be a high slugging percentage guy, but he isn’t any longer.
actually, you are inferring that the only reason that Nevin leads the team in rbi is because he gets more opportunities. That is incorrect. Giles actually lead the team in PLATE APPEARANCES with runners in scoring position. but too often, he takes the walk, leaving someone else to drive in the runs.
You know how a guy like Phil Nevin ends up in as a 3-4-5 hitter. He started there and so he has RBI’s and then they look at RBI’s to see who is good, so they can decide who is a 3-4-5 hitter. It’s circular logic. Of course, circular logic is still a step up for Bochy.
Hitters whose primary skill would appear to be “getting on” will drive in a surprising amount of runs when batting behind other players who reach base frequently.
Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, Frankie Frisch, Joe Cronin, and more recently Tommy Herr, Willie MaGee, Keith Hernandez, Rod Carew, and Tony Gwynn all had 100 RBI seasons in this manner.
I’m not saying it’s just because he’s getting more opportunities. It’s also because most of his hits have come with runners on, which is simply chance. By that, I mean Nevin over his career has not been consistently better with runners on.
Triple to left field by Robert Fick!
Oh and as anecdotatl evidence, if Nevin had walked in his last at-bat, he would have notched an RBI.
Make that anecdotal.
Fick scores on a misplayed pop fly.
Come on now, Richard, Nevin didn’t have 31 and 41 homer seasons because he “started there.” He attained those numbers because he was a VERY good hitter. That may or may not still be true, but anyone who hits 41 homers is a valuable player, unless he does absolutely NOTHING in addition.
Lost in the lights!!! 4-1 Pads!
Lawrence has only thrown 13 pitches per inning (73% strikes).
This year, Lance. I already said he WAS a good hitter.
63.9% probability of scoring at least one run with runners on first and second with none out. Looks like we’re about to beat the odds.
Nevermind. Ignore my pessimism. Sean Burroughs just got his first hit of the game.
I said it may or MAY NOT still be true.
He has never appeared to be a hitter who would age well. I see him in the mold of Gaetti, Brunansky, McReynolds. You know, white guys who around the age of 31-34, wake up one morning unable to get around on a good fastball.
Sean Burroughs, RBI MACHINE!!!
Twins failed to cover first base, but Giles got caught off third base on the play. Reminiscent of Ramon Hernandez and his inability to count to three.
94.3% probability of winning, now.
Richard, should we continue to ignore your pessimism?
Probably.