first pitch: 4:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (3-6, 4.76 ERA) vs Brad Radke (5-5, 4.13 ERA)
Friars try to avoid getting their arses handed to them yet again by some team from the midwest. The rest is details. I’ll be eating airplane food tomorrow, so it’s probably best that I won’t be able to watch the game. Mmmm, plastic biscuit.
initial impressions, Klesko got us started..Giles is still struggling leaving Nevin to lead off an inning..
Lawrence seems to have his good sinker today, we need it..
If Nevin can get beaned more often…
64% odds of coming away with at least one run.
Excellent. 41% odds of getting at least one more.
Should be probability rather than odds.
anyone realize that giles is 1 for his last 20..
Sweeney comes through and Sean drives in Nevin.
Sweeney deserves more playing time. He’s been amazing this year.
62.5% probability of winning.
75% probability of winning. 3-0, Padres.
clutch two out hit by Greene..wtg
whats wrong with these Padres?
I’m getting the useless numbers from BP’s Expected Win Matrix.
The probability of scoring 1 or more runs at the beginning of every inning is 28.1%. Torii Hunter leads off the bottom of the second…
Probability of holding the Twins scoreless this inning following the HBP: 57.5%.
I wondered about that. Sweeney is having a fine year and he had a fine one last year. He can continue to have success if Bochy doesnt overuse him. If he is overused, his weaknesses will be exposed and he will probably revert to his norm(.250 or so)
Hunter was out by a mile!
The second base umpire just cost us. Prob. zero runs if he gets the call right: 83.6%, since he got it wrong: 37.9%. That sucks.
That flyball drops it from 37.9% to 33.3%, but reduces the likelihood of hanging a crooked number. And a sac fly brings him home. Probability of holding them to one: 93.2%.
WOW! Dave Roberts makes a tremendous catch against the wall in deep center!!!
Probability of winning: 74%.
perfect example of scoring without a hit, but good job by Lawrence to limit the damage.(with a little help from his defense)
They were, of course, given a huge assist.
They also managed to get a runner on second with no outs despite being caught stealing.
I didn’t think the “assist comment” went through. Sweeney needs to come up big again.
There was only a 27.8% probability of scoring with runners on first and third with two out.
67.6% probability of winning, now.
I hate that umpires have an effect on games.
what was the reason giles didnt score on Nevin’s single to right?
Shutout no longer a possibility, but no-hitter still intact as the Twins come up to bat in the third.
The third base coach held him there. He had forever to get home, too. Ford bobbled the ball.
83.6% probability of keeping the Twins off the board this inning.
40 pitches already for B-Law…
Next two pitches are outs, though. 42 pitches through three innings.
Lawrence: 3.0 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 K (1 HBP)
14 pitches per inning, 73.8% strikes.
Maybe Radke’s walk totals are low because he gets so many damn called strikes…
Khalil is having a pretty good plate appearance. And he walks.
Everything borderline that Radke throws is called a strike.
Expected Win Matrix says: 65.8% win probability
Sure seems like the Twins are fouling everything off.
First hit of the night for the Twins. (I counted and there have been 15 foul balls hit by the Twins…)
Every single batter Lawrence has faced, he’s gotten out. He hit Hunter, but then Hunter was thrown out at second (called safe, but he was thrown out damnit). And the Twins’ first hit of the night was erased on a double play.
there goes the no hitter…lol
at least we got the dp ball right after
Lawrence: 4.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 0 HR (1 HBP)
Radke just got mildly squeezed twice in this PA. Fick absolutely hammered that pitch foul…
Fick hit another one pretty hard to the gap, but Ford cut it off and held him to a single.
Bob does a good job of staying back on the ball.
I love to watch Fick play. He goes from first to second on a Klesko single.
I love to watch Fick play. He goes from first to third on a Klesko single.
70 percent chance of giles hitting into a dp
Damn. I wish that “first to second” comment hadn’t gone through.