Padres vs Marlins
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108 Comments
I appreciated the discussion in today’s earlier thread … which I believe was sparked by DePo’s invitation for comments along the lines of “buy vs sell for 2008″ in his latest blog entry …
http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/2008/07/wanna-play-gm.html
Here’s a repeat of my thoughts from that thread …
I’ve been surprised at how much communication from the Padres’ FO has indicated they have not yet made the “buy vs sell†decision for 2008 … it’s obvious to me which way this decision should lean … and I’m 99.99% sure that the reality inside the FO is different from their public communications (and I fully understand and support how/why that’s the case) …
So, what I’m left to ponder is what’s been touched on a bit here today … make moves now for 2009 or 2010 or 2011?
It’s clear to me that the Padres’ ownership and management works towards having a team each year that is most likely to compete for the division and/or wild card while minimizing the risk of having a season which is as bad as 2008 has turned about to be (which begs an obvious question) … which says to me that what they are really doing right now is investigating options to make the 2009 team as good as possible within their risk (and budget, obviously) constraints.
I wish they’d have more of an attitude of “plan for a run at a World Series†… but I understand both how risky and hard that is. Perhaps they even think that’s what they are doing … perhaps that *is* what they are doing … but that’s sure not what it looks like to me.
I don’t claim to know what it takes to make and execute such a plan … it took Boston *many* years to figure out how to do it … clearly the Yanks have struggled doing it lately … so it’s not just a money issue … and I’m not even sure that the Twins nor the A’s have such a plan (I think they are just better at the “be a good team every year†model) … and the Tampa Bay model has many of its own risks and downsides (ex. sucking bad enough and long enough to have so many high draft picks that you almost can’t avoid creating a team that seems to be young and talented enough to make a run at several World Series’) …
I guess I’ve always thought that the key was to keep having a good team and be ready, willing and able to buy the right free agent hitter at the right time … a Bonds-type … a Vlad-type … a Manny-type. They are few and far between … so perhaps this is the Padres’ plan … they just have not yet found the guy they want … I was OK with it not being Carlos Lee, nor Soriano … (and we all knew it certainly wasn’t Barry Zito ) … it seemed like it might have been Miguel Cabrera … who might it be in the near future?
In the mean time, the team tries its best to stay poised … to take a few shots at drafting or signing and developing that guy …
I think the things that have hurt the 2008 Padres, beyond the oft-mentioned injuries (Jake, CY, Bard) and regressions (KG, Bard, Barrett, bully) are the events from 2007 which led to not retaining Jenga and Cameron …
Did anyone catch Peavy on 1090’s pregame show? He basically killed the organization for 4 or 5 minutes or so…
Among the comments:
“I told Greg, ‘it’s tough to win games here.’ We’ve never, since I’ve been here, had an offensive powerhouse.”
“I feel bad for them (Wolf and Maddux) pitching so well, and losing… maybe if they go somewhere else, they’ll fall in love over there.”
“We know this team isn’t going to be a player in free agency, it’s not like we have 6 or 7 prospects on the cusp.”
“Our future isn’t as bright as other organizations” (paraphrased, i forget the entire comment)
#2@Richard D.: Not very encouraging coming from our star pitcher.
#2@Richard D.: Ouch. He’s telling it like it is though….Thanks for transcribing.
#3@Turbine Dude: Yeah…my thoughts exactly.
Giants just lost to the Mets 0-7.
#3@Turbine Dude: But his comments do seem to reflect the general perception of the fans … in that regard, perhaps it’s beneficial to get those thoughts out there … I hope they are more negative than things really are …
#2@Richard D.: I’ve been disappointed with Peavy’s attitude this season, saying the season was over after a month and now this.
He is supposed to be a team leader, and he has to play in San Diego for some time.
#7@LynchMob: I would hope Peavy would be smarter than the fans.
#7@LynchMob: #9@Kevin: I tend to agree with both of you at the same time.
OT: I belive I will *try* to watch this game from my bed. I haven’t slept in 38 hours (sick family member). I’ll see you guys tommorow. Go Padres!
#8@Kevin: Well, he’s certainly laying the groundwork for fans not being as sorry to see him go when he ultimately does.
#12@Richard Wade: It sounds to me, like he is laying the ground workd for being gone, sooner rather than later
#13@Field39: His off the field behavior won’t be missed.
Heard, (From a reliable source, Kevin…) that the Pads called Chip Ambres, Myrow and Thatcher today. That the FO sent Guevara and Mac down, and that Tomko is on the DL. Does this mean OG will face a longer DL stint as well?
Any opinions of this development?
#15@130tom330: NO, NOT Thatcher!
Good thing Randy got that pesky lead-off batter… Only chasing one after 6 pitches…
Hermida homer. 1-0.
#15@130tom330: Deck chairs on the Titanic.
#14@Richard Wade: Remember Peavy’s comments in last year’s paper, about how he expected to be a free agent because the Padres wouldn’t pony up the cash…..
And similar comments in Sports Illustrated….
I mean, do we praise him for his honesty… or criticize him for throwing his team “under the bus”? Tough question to answer…
I think Peavy may feel that the FO has lied to him about their plans to improve the team. I am sure it is frustrating for him this year when Kouzmanoff is batting 5th, and Scott Hairston is sometimes the leadoff hitter. I seem to remember the offensive liabilities being discussed when Peavy was negotiating last year. He wanted to be sure the club was committed to improving the lineup. This would not be the first time that the FO has compromised their credibility.
#21@parlo: The FO has been very clear, that they are going to build this team via the farm system. I don’t see a credibility issue.
Peavy cultivates the image of a winner, a team player, a leader, good ‘ol boy (words)… We’ll see how long that can compete with the actual guy; who doesn’t have to obey posted no-parking signs, cusses himself out for failure to produce up to his own standards (actions). If he’s that critical of himself, how long should he hold in his criticisms of his teammates
That said, IMHO, its nice to see someone on the ball-club who’s not afraid to voice his frustration (god knows we’ve embraced the opportunity). Cant blame a guy for calling a spade a spade, least he’s a realist.
#21@parlo: Peavy’s none too bright if he feels lied to.
Headley with some RBI’s. Thats fun to watch. Section 130 just came back alive. Been a bit dead out here lately.
Meanwhile back at the ranch. Lamar with a bases clearing double.
You can believe that what Jake is publicly saying, is mildly what the players on the team and outside the organization are thinking and saying. Who has been the first Padre to criticize his comments?
#23@130tom330: I’m told he’s been known to yell at his teammates and tell them they suck, etc.
#22@Field39: I didnt realize that you were present at the negotiations. My apologies
#29@parlo: They have been very clear publicly what their intentions are.
#27@malcolm: Nice call Nevin. Rhino called, wants his opportunity back!
#28@Richard Wade: Yeah?! I’ve been doing that all year, hasn’t worked for me yet…
#29@parlo: Alderson says it every week on the radio.
28. Only 3 starters tonight on the opening day starting lineup. Does anyone know how unusual this is this early in the year?
Peavy should look at the f’n scoreboard right now.
Portland 4 Florida 1.
Nice start boys.
#23@130tom330: 100% agreement.
#35@malcolm: lol, good one there!
#32@Field39: Alderson says a lot of things every week on the radio. That doesnt make them true. It also doesnt mean that they are the same things that are said in private. If the FO reassured Peavy that they would improve the offense, then he most likely feels that he has been mislead. They may have told him a whole BS story. Who knows.
Sabathia in line for the win if they hold it.
#15@130tom330: Bernie Wilson has caught up to you.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=3479179
#39@parlo: They’ve rather obviously made attempts to improve the offense. A big part of the reason the offense is bad this year is the implosions of Khalil and the catching corps(e).
Also, fun note: Brian Giles, Adrian Gonzalez, Edgar Gonzalez, Jody Gerut, Scott Hairston, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Tony Clark have all been above average hitters so far this year.
#33 Year/Padre July 8 starters in opening day lineup. 07-6, 06-6, 05-5, 04-6, 03-5. We had Bradley this day last year and Vinnie this day 06. Any ideas for teams with less than 3 opening day starters in the July 8 lineup?
#42@Richard Wade: You forgot the replacement of MB and Cameron with Jim Edmonds/Gerut and Scott Hairston. Those were both significant downgrades IMO.
I dont really feel like rehashing the entire offseason again. My point is simply that Peavy may well feel disgusted with the FO. There is a credibility problem with the FO, and perhaps Peavy feels what many fans are feeling these days.
#45@parlo: They attempted to re-sign Cameron and made a run at acquiring Fukudome. Just because they couldn’t come to terms with those guys doesn’t mean they didn’t “attempt to improve the offense.”
Peavy, when frustrated is a moron. He needs to read GY’s annuals.
It’s nice to be able to speak your mind but he’s also the representative of the organization. What does he think Adrian been doing since becoming a Padre?
To say that the offense has been crappy since he got here is wrong. The offense has been better than the opponents since Petco Park open until this year. And it’s taken a dive this year. Yes, that is true. The pitching hasn’t been as good as previous seasons either, especially the bullpen.
I just started watching the game and looking at this thread so I just saw those comments by Peavy.
Not only is it very disappointing that a “team leader” would say stuff like that but it’s completely wrong! Anyone that can look deeply into the statistics knows that the strength of this team during their 4 year run has been the offense, not the pitching. In fact, as bad as the offense has been this season, the pitching is just as bad. It’s not like I expect Peavy to be very intelligent either but I’d expect that he’d have a rudimentary knowledge of what has made this team good over the past 4 years.
Also, one of the main reasons the Padres haven’t been successful in the postseason over this 4 year run is because he’s been so bad in the the playoffs. In his three playoff starts (including the game in Colorado last year) he’s pitched 16 innings, given up 29 hits, 11 walks, 5 HR and 19 earned runs with 11 strikeouts. That’s a 10.69 ERA. Maybe the Padres would be players in free agency if he pitched more like Curt Schilling or Josh Beckett in the postseason. Until he does something when it really counts, he should probably just keep his mouth shut.
#47@Didi: The offense has outperformed the pitching in four of Peavy’s previous six seasons, though the offense has only been good in two of those seasons.
#46 Richard are you on the payroll or cashing dividend checks?
Cameron and his agent don’t believe they tried to resign him.
#50@Pudge: No need to be a prick.
#46@Richard Wade: Peavy may feel that they were just going through the motions with no true intention of signing them. They may have done it simply to keep fans such as yourself, content.
Then again, maybe Didi is right and Peavy is a moron. Maybe he has a Philip Rivers streak in him and will be arguing with fans in another month or two.
Also, if the problem with the offense is Khalil and the catchers, then why is the team last or close to last in nearly every offensive category. Two players are not solely responsible for that much weakness.
50: Cameron wanted more than the one year deal offered as I remember it.
49: Thanks, Richard. My point is that Peavy basically threw his teammates under the bus with his offensive comment.
BTW, I’m liking this lineup. It’s different and Hairston actually starts against a lefty pitcher.
People, please keep the name calling to a minimum.
Disagreement is fine but no need to disrespect the other posters.
You wonder if the Padres would be better off trading Peavy. Unless he learns how to relax, I fear that he’ll never be a “clutch” pitcher. It certainly seems that he gets too excited and overthrows everything in big games. As it stands right now, the Padres are never going to go very far in the playoffs as long as Peavy is their perceived ace. In a 7 game series, they have to win 4 of the 5 games he doesn’t start. In a shorter series, they have to win every game he doesn’t start. Unfortunately they haven’t been good enough the past 4 years to overcome his postseason failures.
Ok I went to the cowboyjoewest.com site as suggested by Matt–very bored. You can buy his CD (7 tracks) for 12.99 or buy ALL 7 tracks individually for only $8. If I had this kind of marketing plan I would have a short fuse too!
#55@Schlom: Jake is a dominant pitcher in his prime, with a favorable contract. Should the Padres chose to move him, they would get some serious talent in return.
After top of 6th …
Pitches-strikes – A Miller 92-55; R Wolf 90-61.
Ground balls-fly balls – A Miller 7-3; R Wolf 5-7.
Batters faced – A Miller 25; R Wolf 21.
… time to PH for Wolf here? This one’s a tough call given how well Wolf is pitching and how unpredictable the bully is ,,,
I have to say the filter that GY uses is very odd. Crap doesn’t work, nor can you say the name of my favorite pitching coach, Dick Pole or my favorite NASCAR driver Dick Trickle. Yet prick seems to be OK. I wonder if poo works?
#56@David V: That’s pretty funny.
We need more power Scotty.
#53 what player does’nt want more than 1 year. and how did that work out with Edmunds. If all we are going to sign is desperate players who will take one year then we will surely be in this same spot again and again.
Hairston with a nice 2.062 OPS in July. 9 hits in 16 at-bats with 4 HR and 7 RBI.
#59@Schlom: That is too funny!
52: Looking at the roster in the beginning of the season, did you expect the offense to be this bad? The big question mark I had was CF and 4th-5th starter.
I thought LF was going to improve from last year (getting there), RF was going to be just fine (and it is), 1B, SS, 3B would regress a little (and SS by a lot now, 1B is great & 3B is improving), 2B was going to be better (and it is), catching to be about average (and it’s not). CF so far is average after the disaster that was Edmonds.
The problem still is the back end starters and the bullpen mostly. Yes, no game can be won without scoring runs and the Padres have been poor this year. But can you really say the FO was not planning to upgrade the offense (after all they did try to get Fukudome as well). Their biggest failure is in not having a backup plan in case Edmonds didn’t work out and how they dealt with his missing Spring Training.
Our back-end starters are just not very good (Banks may or may not change that).
#65@Didi: Jody Gerut has actually been a pretty good back-up plan in center. The error seems to have been waiting so long to go to the back-up plan.
62: How is it working out for the Dodgers with Andruw Jones? The Padres offered him a one year deal as well and I’m glad that he turned it down. One cannot be deviating from a plan especially when the budget is limited. Look how Edmonds worked is right. That was a waste of resources in the end (prospect and money and he’s playing well for another team).
Check how Cameron is doing in Milwaukee. Had he been playing for the Padres, we would be complaining, too. As a matter of fact, we were complaining about his performance last season especially after his slow April-May start.
Well Gregg to the Cubs is probably out now. I wonder just how much of a market there is for our sledge.
66: Agreed. They should have let Edmonds rehab more in the beginning of the season and see how Gerut was handling the job since he did have a good Spring Training as opposed to none for Edmonds.
68: Depends on whether the Cardinals want to get into the fray or not in the NL Central. Or the Phillies in the NL East. I wouldn’t count out the Braves nor the Mets yet. Pedro Martinez looks done last time I checked.
Man, are you guys believing this? We’ve got no problem piling on teams, but cant get a tying run, stranding runners on third with 1 or 0 outs the end of the ballgame last night.
I think Peavy’s “personality disorder” is just the tip of the psychological issues we’re facing in ‘08. (bi-polar, multiple personality disorder, trandference, etc.)
That said, I’m loving the last 20 min. Reminds me of what it feels like to enjoy baseball. You gotta suffer the lows to enjoy/recognize the highs. Go baseball!
#65@Didi: The high strikeout low OBP of Kouz and Khalil has bothered me for quite some time. They both seem like vulnerable hitters who are a gamble. Scott Hairston and PMac in LF bothered me since March. I remember thinking that Maddux at 42 might be finished. I didnt expect Hoffman to continue to decline so much. I was very critical of the Edmonds trade.
On a funny note, I remember taking heat from others for being so negative because I thought the team would win about 76-78 games this year. In retrospect, I was extremely optimistic.
59: that ’s a hoot.
WOW, Maddux could have used 3 runs last night to win his 351st. Man, that’s rough.
Yes to offensive explosion.
70 I was thinking the same thing with the Phillies. Down the stretch I would much rather have Maddux then Eaton in the rotation. To say nothing of Meyer. Ditto on Pedro, that 4th year the soxs balked on lookes pretty smart.
The Wolf put on a nice show for all the scouts, tonight.
I don’t think there is anything wrong with one year deals, especially for pitchers. Obviously it’s going to be harder to get offensive players that do well on one year deals because they are more stable.
In fact, if I were the Padres front office, I’d try to sign at least two starters every season to one year deals. If they do well (and pitching half their games in Petco Park is going to really help them out) they can let them walk and get a draft pick for them. Or if the Padres do poorly, they can trade them for prospects (which is pretty much the same thing). To me, it’s a win-win situation because it’s hard to get burned on an one year deal plus the pitchers value could be perceived as higher then it really is.
It’s obviously going to be much harder to find offense players, especially as Petco will effect them negatively so much.
67: Cameron’s average and on-base percentage may be down, but his power numbers are very good. Since June 1 his OBP has gone up as well, and he has slugged a very impressive .532. His current OPS surpasses what Gerut has done this season and also what Cam did last season as well. His 14 homers would be second on this team, and that’s after missing nearly all of April. His power numbers surely would be a bit lower playing in Petco Park, but I think the speed and defense that Cam brought to this team would be welcomed with open arms.
72: That’s about the number of wins I thought the Padres was going to get, too. I didn’t think the team out of Spring Training was capable of winning more than 83 games. Looks like both of us were optimistic.
I remember there were quite a few here that were critical of the Edmonds trade. I was counting more on the other gamble (Gerut) to work out. Still it was two too many gambles. No one thought Greene was going to tank like this. I was a proponent of PMac and still am but he’s never going to get 400 AB with the Padres now that he’s sent down. I can see that his defense is average at best. Let’s hope Chase’s defense improves as the season goes on.
BTW, the Padres batted around twice tonight. Wow. When was the last time that happened?
Andrew Miller did OK after the first inning. Didn’t he throw 40 pitches there? He wound up with only 92 after 5IP which means he only threw 52 in the next 4 frames. A bit disturbing were it not for the piling-on runs.
Go, Myrow, go. I’m glad to see this. He’s been destroying AAA for the last 2 seasons.
I came in a little late to the discussion in the earlier thread, but I saw a little sentiment that competing in 2009 is the way to go. I want to compete as much as anyone, but at what cost? Is building a team capable of winning 86 games next year and the years after favorable than taking some risks, but perpetually having a team capable of winning 96 in 2011? I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to be the team that wins the bad division every year and hopes for the best in the playoffs. I want to be the team that everyone else in the NL is gunning for, the team others are trying to catch. Maybe this isn’t feasible for the San Diego Padres with the way MLB is structured, but I would at least try.
Also this is obviously one game, but I’d expect Portland to be a bit closer than 8 games out with the performance they’ve put on tonight.
Our offensive problems are solved !
Hats off to Brian Myrow, who probably should have hit his first ML homer ages ago.
#81@parlo: Careful there, don’t jinx it.
#78@Didi: Unless you have a lot of prospects or can spend a lot of free agents, gambling is the only way to go. And it can certainly work, look at the Cardinals, except for Pujols (obviously a huge start), Glaus, and Ankiel, the entire lineup is retreads. Their pitching staff only has 4 non-retreads, Wainwright, McClellan, Isringhausen and Lohse (although he could be considered a retread). It worked out pretty well for them (although I guess it’s probably a lot easier to fill out your offense when you have Albert Pujols in the middle of it).
77: That’s good for Cameron. I’m happy for him. He’s a good CF and seems to always enjoy playing to me. Five of those HRs was in Houston bandbox, btw. Not saying he wouldn’t have hit them, just that his opportunity to play in that park would have been fewer has he signed here.
And Jody Gerut is no slouch in CF so far, his HR-mishap notwithstanding.
If I was Edgar, Adrian, Hairston, Kouzmanoff or Headley, I would talk to Jake after the game and say: “Enough runs for you?”
Then: “We’ll try to get one or two the next time you pitch.”
But they probably won’t do that, because they are not bafoons like Peavy.
#86@Kevin: Good point, ’nuff said.
#80@Bryan: Yeah, unfortunately, the D-back get to play a series against Columbus.
Did anyone else catch the Hoffman video they showed?
84: Yeah, I don’t know how the Cardinals do it every season. Must be something in the water around there. I keep thinking they’d fall off and they would surprise me … again.
Looking at the move that was done today, it seems to me that the Padres have decided to get all the AAA players some auditions. I’d much rather see what we have and who can play/contribute than keep throwing out Tony Clark to PH.
On one hand, it sucks that both catchers are out (not that they were doing much), on the other hand, we get to see if Hundley is the real deal and if Carlin can be a capable platoon/backup. Nice to see if Ambres and Myrow can play at this level.
I’m liking the Brewers blueprint. Their cashing out on the prospects to get a talented rent-a-player for WS push is one thing that I hope the Padres can do in the future.
#89@Kevin: You mean Trevor W Hoffman???
89: What video?
Hairston: four home runs in last 12 at-bats.
93: Yeah, he’s mad that Harry wasn’t playing him more in June.
BTW: how did Thatcher look?
#37@Oside Jon: Heck of a game tonite. Too bad TD had to pass out early, he woulda loved that one, hope all is well on his end.
#91@130tom330: Yeah, that was cool.
#90@Didi: We ought to be able to get something for Clark and his .385 OBP, right?
#50@Pudge:
Do we really miss Cameron. Is he out of his slump?
Cameron: 225/.308/.485
Gerut: .277/.346/.393
#57@Field39:
He’s an NL pitcher, no, an NL West pitcher pitching home games in Petco Park. Yes, he is very good, maybe even great, but I bet he is not viewed as an elite (among other teams’ FOs), no matter that Cy Young.
#101@Stephen: Last year Jake posted a 2.51 ERA at home and a 2.57 ERA on the road. I am going to go out on a limb and say that every GM in baseball would take Jake in a heartbeat.
#101@Stephen: He is one of the five or 10 best pitchers in baseball.
#100@Kevin: That slightly favors Cameron before park effects.
#101@Stephen: He’s considered by most to be one of if not the best pitcher in baseball.
#102@Field39:
My post and the last sentence of your post are not mutually exclusive.
Maybe I’m just a little steamed at Jake, then. But he’s still a National League pitcher, and that is a strike against him in any talk about top pitchers in the game. And the fact he’s stunk in his few postseason games. I think there’s also questions about his durability and injury risk being higher than normal.
#102@Field39: Is he really? For his career, he has a 2.83 ERA at home, 3.77 on the road. Granted some of his road stats are skewed (5.54 ERA in 66.2 IP in Arizona, 4.60 in 45 IP in Colorado) but he’s not been outstanding in SF (3.76) or LA (3.30) either.
Don’t get me wrong, that 3.77 road ERA is still pretty good but it might not reallly be elite. Since he became a full-time starter in 2003, all these pitchers had a road ERA better then his 3.50: Clemens, Santana, Webb, Zambrano, Halladay, Schmidt, Smoltz and Kelvim Escobar (minimum 350 IP). At home, only Smoltz and Oswalt were better. Overall, just Johan, Clemens and Smoltz were better.
Actually, that might be elite, especially if he can pitch like he is this season for the next few seasons.
Pitchers with more win shares than Peavy from 2005 to 2007: In order, Santana, Webb, Oswalt, Lackey, Halladay, Zambrano.
That’s with Peavy having an off year in 2006.
98: I sure hope so. With Myrow call-up, Clark should be ready to pack up his bag and move on to a contending team around ASB. I just hate to see Myrow getting jerk around after putting all those great numbers in AAA without having a chance to prove himself at the ML level.
I’m think Clark may net a single A level fireballers or some injured AAA pitcher with good peripherals.
re: Peavy, if he’s available, better deals than Sabathia’s and Harden’s are coming this way given his contract status. Should the Padres trade him? It’s a thought.