Grab a beverage, sit down, and get comfy. Well, maybe not that comfy; seriously, dude, have a little dignity.
As you know, MLB’s First-Year Player Draft is upon us. What’s in store for the Padres? Good question. Let’s take a look, shall we…
Draft Class Strengths and Weaknesses
Thursday, June 5, 2008
11 a.m. PT
ESPN2
MLB.com
XM 180 (names), 186 (commentary)
The 2008 draft class features plenty of first baseman and relievers, but not much in the way of college pitching and middle infielders. According to Grady Fuson (for some reason not by-lined in the online version), the Padres are looking to add catching depth, corner outfielders with power, pitching, and perhaps help at shortstop if there’s any to be found. He also notes that their emphasis in on procuring the best available talent, not filling any specific needs:
You never want to go into a draft and say this is what the big league club doesn’t have, so this is what we’re going to draft. If you need a shortstop and it’s a terrible draft for shortstops, do you still take a shortstop? That would be crazy.
This is the old “draft for talent, trade for need” axiom at work. Paul DePodesta echoes these sentiments at his blog, with one notable caveat:
Every team out there always needs more good players at every position, especially at the lower levels of the minor league system. Rarely do teams target players in the draft with their immediate Major League needs in mind, with the one exception being a top end reliever. In recent years more and more college relievers have been selected in the top rounds of the draft in hopes that they could get to the big leagues quickly to fill a role.
I am not a big fan of drafting relievers early, but sometimes it works. Washington’s Chad Cordero (#20 overall in 2003) is one recent example. Another first-rounder taken in that same draft, Ryan Wagner (now Cordero’s teammate), hasn’t met with the same kind of success, reminding us yet again that “safe” is a relative concept.
Also, if Kevin Towers has shown us anything during his tenure as Padres GM, it’s that there are plenty of ways — this season notwithstanding — to build a strong bullpen. This doesn’t mean a team should avoid college relievers altogether, of course, just that maybe they’re not the top priority.
Great, but how does all this jibe with what the Padres have done in recent years?
Padres Draft History and Tendencies
MB at Friar Forecast notes that about 70% of the Padres’ draft picks from 2005 to 2007 have been used on college players. Looking back even further, the Padres have had 54 picks in the first or first supplemental round since their inception in 1969. Out of those, five have gone onto become stars:
- Dave Winfield (1973, #4 overall)
- Kevin McReynolds (1981, #6)
- Andy Benes (1988, #1)
- Derrek Lee (1993, #14)
- Khalil Greene (2002, #14)
In other words, it happens about once every eight years or so. Several others — Mike Ivie, Dave Roberts, Bill Almon, Bob Owchinko, Andy Hawkins, Bob Geren, Jimmy Jones, Shane Mack, Thomas Howard, Scott Sanders, Joey Hamilton, Dustin Hermanson, Ben Davis, and Sean Burroughs — have enjoyed varying degrees of success.
Players That Interest Me at #23
Who do I like? Well, bearing in mind that I’m getting my information second- and third-hand (from what I consider reliable sources, but still), here are some “persons of interest” as they say on the cop shows. Those of you who have been following along the past couple weeks will recognize many of these names:
- Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State U. (bio | report)
Considered a potential top 10 pick just a few months ago, a shoulder injury has made him one of the wild cards of this class. Whoever picks Scheppers will be assuming a great deal of risk, something the Padres may be reluctant to do both on general principle and because of their recent experiences with Tim Stauffer, Cesar Carrillo, and Nick Schmidt. - Casey Kelly, SS/RHP, Sarasota (Fla.) HS (report)
The son of former big-league infielder Pat Kelly has a high ceiling but is committed to play quarterback at Tennessee. There are some concerns about Kelly’s bat and signability. - Jemile Weeks, 2B, U. of Miami (bio | report)
Rickie’s younger brother possesses offensive skills that the Padres covet. He gets on base and runs well, an excellent combination for Petco Park. He may move to center field, which is still a premium defensive position. Weeks is one of the few guys on my list who might legitimately be on the Padres’ radar. - Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills (Calif.) HS (report)
Collier has crazy upside, but is raw. I don’t see the Padres taking on this much risk. - Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury School (Conn.) (report)
Another unpolished guy with tools galore, Hewitt evokes comparisons to Ron Gant and Bo Jackson (!) for his athleticism. Reports on the degree to which Hewitt is or will be able to use that ability in a meaningful way are varied. History is littered with tremendously talented individuals who just weren’t very good at baseball — Reggie Abercrombie, Joe Borchard, Drew Henson, Michael Jordan, Ruben Rivera, to name a few.
Players That Might Interest the Padres at #23
Given what we think we know about how the Padres operate, here are a few players they might be targeting with their first pick:
- Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian U. (bio | report)
Cashner’s fastball runs 96-98 mph, but his command is spotty. He has been used as a starter and reliever in college, but has had more success out of the ‘pen. - Jason Castro, C, Stanford U. (bio | report)
Fuson has stated a desire to improve catching depth within the system, and Castro is the last of the big three. I don’t think he’ll slip to #23, but if he does, I imagine the Padres will give him serious consideration. - Weeks
- Ike Davis, 1B/OF, Arizona State U. (bio | report)
The son of former big-league reliever Ron Davis draws praise for his raw power and defensive abilities at first base. He also may be athletic enough to handle a corner outfield spot, although reports are mixed. Davis strikes me as a very Fuson-esque pick. He’s one of the more palatable “safe” guys in my estimation. - Ryan Perry, RHP, U. of Arizona (bio | report)
See Cashner. My fear is that the Padres will take one of these two relievers. - David Cooper, 1B, U. of California (bio | report)
Cooper is sort of a lesser version of Davis. He’s a borderline first-round pick who may end up being taken in the supplemental round instead. - Reese Havens, SS, U. of South Carolina (bio | report)
Consistent at bat and in the field, Havens has good pop for a middle infielder and draws praise for his makeup. As with Cooper, #23 might be a shade early for Havens. However, shortstop is a premium position so reaching for him isn’t out of the question. Havens also aligns well with the Padres’ preference for polished college guys.
Of these guys, I’d be happiest with Castro, Weeks, Davis, or Havens — roughly in that order. I don’t think Castro makes it to #23, and I’ve not heard anyone associate the Padres with Weeks. I’m bracing myself for one of the relievers, but I hope they don’t go that route.
Mock Drafts
What do the experts say? Plenty:
- Baseball America (Jim Callis), May 16, 2008: Ike Davis, 1B/OF, Arizona State U.. Yep. This is someone I imagine the Padres are seriously targeting. Assuming he’s available, Davis is a reasonable guess. The way Callis’ draft unfolds, I’d prefer to see the Padres take Weeks or possibly Hewitt, but I could live with Davis.
- MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo), May 28, 2008: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, U. of Arizona. This would be an overdraft and a mistake. Schlereth is a college reliever with a rocket arm, but… did I mention he’s a college reliever? Not really my thing. The way Mayo’s draft unfolds, I’d like Ethan Martin or Weeks, but I don’t see Martin slipping that far. Mayo is maintaining a blog as well, and his final projection (June 5) has the Padres taking Shooter Hunt (see Baseball Prospectus draft below). I’d be happy with Hunt.
- Minor League Ball (John Sickels and friends), May 31, 2008: Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Highland (Ill.) HS. Uh, no. The Padres haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since 2000 (Mark Phillips). Of those 54 first and supplemental first round picks we mentioned earlier, a total of eight have been spent on high school pitchers. Only two ended up making a positive contribution at the big-league level: Andy Hawkins (1978) and Jimmy Jones (1982). Towers notes that “There are two high school arms we like a lot who are projected to go probably in the top 10 choices — if they slid to us, we’d take either of them.” I’m not sure who he has in mind, but I don’t think either of them is Odorizzi.
- Sickels also gives his own personal take and has the Padres tabbing Ryan Perry, which makes a lot more sense. In his scenario, I’d take Collier, Weeks, or Davis ahead of Perry.
- Baseball Prospectus (Kevin Goldstein), June 4, 2008: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane. Hey look, a college pitcher with some upside. I hadn’t been targeting him, but Hunt would be a nice pick. Goldstein also mentions Havens, which seems reasonable, and Hewitt, which doesn’t. Quoth Goldstein: “That kind of player seems like the anti-definition of a Grady Fuson selection.” Yes, to say the very least. This could be a fascinating development if true.
- SaberScouting: 1-15 | 16-30 (Frankie Piliere and Kiley McDaniel), June 5, 2008: Lance Lynn, RHP, U. of Mississippi (Frankie), Havens (Kiley). Lynn? Yuck, that’s worse than Schlereth. They have the Phillies taking Hewitt or Aaron Hicks with the next pick. If Hicks somehow slips that far and the Padres don’t take him at #23, I’ll scream louder than I did when they passed on Michael Main last year. But Hicks seems to be a top 15 pick from what I can tell. I wonder if Hicks is one of the high school arms Towers alluded to the other day? Still, I don’t see him being available here.
- MadFriars (Ramiro Olivas Jr.). This is for the Padres only. They’ve got Texas outfielder Jordan Danks at #46. Danks strikes me as the type of player Fuson and company might covet, although this is perhaps too early. Junior college shortstop Tyler Ladendorf at #69 is a great idea, but I don’t see him lasting that long. My guess is if the Padres want him, they’ll need to pop him at #42 or maybe #46.
- Baseball Blogger Mock Draft (various, including yours truly), May 29 – June 1, 2008. I went with Cashner because that’s who I think the Padres would have taken at that point. Left to my own devices, I would have picked Collier or possibly Hewitt. We also did the supplemental first round, and I took Ladendorf at #42 and Oklahoma State shortstop Jordy Mercer at #46. Looks like Sickels also had us popping Ladendorf at #42. I think that pick just makes way too much sense. With luck, he’ll be there and the Padres like him as much as I do.
The Mercer pick is a reach. He’s a two-way player, and there were safer guys available — right-handers Zach Putnam and Bryan Price immediately leap to mind, but neither of them excited me much so I gambled. The players I was targeting with that pick — Wake Forest first baseman Allan Dykstra and Miami outfielder Dennis Raben — both went earlier than I’d expected and I kind of panicked, which is really stupid when you’ve got that much time to make your pick, but there it is.
My Wish List
This is nuts, but what the heck:
23. Weeks
42. Ladendorf
46. Dykstra or Raben
69. Adrian Nieto, C, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.
Peter Friberg’s Wish List
Peter, our resident draft maven and all-around good guy, actually inspired me to create my wish list with one of his own:
23. Scheppers, Hewitt, or Collier
42. Hewitt or Mike Montgomery
46. Ladendorf
69. Nick Maronde or Aaron Weatherford
I would love to see the Pads take Hewitt or Collier with their first pick, but both strike me as a bit too risky for the current regime’s tastes. Maronde is a high-school left-hander who sounds intriguing. I took him at #69 in the BBMD — Nieto was my target, but he got scooped up 12 picks ahead of me.
Now What?
Well, we watch and we wait. And then we wait and we watch. And when that’s all done…
Meanwhile, there are places to follow this stuff. Here are a few:
- 2008 Draft Tracker (MLB.com)
- Baseball America Draft Blog (BA)
Also, Eric SanInocencio and I will be blogging the draft over at Baseball Digest Daily. And I’m hoping to have at least a brief recap of the Padres draft up on Friday.
More coffee, please…
We’re up.
#249@Tom Waits:
Imagine the “Lucky” in a deep voice from an awkward looking kid with a curly blonde afro.
#246@Richard Wade: Yeah. Unfortunate.
#248@Ben B.: Why? They probably have a good idea of what it will take to sign Dykstra, regardless of where he was picked. If they haven’t identified another player who will sign for what they’ll pay at 23, it doesn’t make sense to take the chance (no one is saying it’s a lock) that Dykstra would still be there at 42.
2004 Draft….that was dumb.
Did they just take someone named Jaff?
Who the hell is Jeff Decker? Is this a good move?
Well, one thing we can say about Decker is … he’s got tools.
*rimshot*
“Our scouts believe Decker may be as pure a high school hitter as there is in the country. More later.” – DePo
Decker – Shock. But in the sense of surprising, not disappointing.
According to MLB.com:
While most people were looking at Decker as a hitter, there probably are still some who might consider him on the mound. He can throw upwards of 93 mph with a decent curve, and that arm strength serves him well in the outfield. He’s got a pretty good approach as a hitter and has the chance to hit for pretty good power, looking like a Matt Stairs-like right fielder in the future
#258@Tom Waits: So this isn’t a bad move, at least in theory?
#256@Ben B.: Kevin Goldstein says, “Kinda a strange pick. He’s a high schooler, but he’s kind of bat only. Not great tools, esp. for a teenager.”
How does a guy named Decker not have tools?!
#256@Ben B.: Solid.
#257@Richard Wade: Very interesting pick, and he might cost overslot with his commitment to AZ State.
John Forsythe at 46, a third basemen from U Arkansas Fayetteville.
Decker & Forsyth – yawn…
Nice work guys in the Pads front office. Cap off a bad year with a bad draft
Jaff Decker was the 62nd rater player by BA.
Logan Forsyth was 76th.
I’m assuming no one thinks that Melville can be bought out of commitment to UNC, he’s the 15th rated.
Lots of highly rated players still out there including high school pitchers Alex Meyer (25th) and Ross Seaton (28).
“Logan Forsythe
Skilled player, great makeup, very hard-nosed. More later.” – DePo
#260@Phantom: Not at all. He’s not toolsy, but I could see him in RF.
I’d have preferred an arm (Spruill) at 46.
#262@Tom Waits: Hopefully they manage to sign him anyway.
#267@Richard Wade: Yay, another gritty overachiever. Can we stick him, Payne, Chalk, and some others in a genetic blender?
That’s a good Winfield story. When he was drafted out of HS, they told him “We’ll give you a $500 bonus and a bus ticket to West Virginia.” Nah, I’ll go be a 3 sport star in college, thanks.
sniff, sniff, does this mean no Ladendorf?
Here’s the scouting report on Forsyth, it’s pretty good:
Forsythe ranked second on Team USA with six steals and third with a .309 batting average (trailing only cinch first-rounder Pedro Alvarez and Brett Wallace), but he came down with a stress fracture in his right foot at the end of last summer. After having surgery in November, he wasn’t able to train as he normally would, resulting in a hamstring pull this spring. Forsythe uses his legs in his swing, and the hamstring injury affected his stroke in the early going. Once he healed, he again began drilling line drives into the gaps and making a push for the second round. Scouts believe he’ll have average power in the big leagues and liken his approach to Mike Lowell’s, so he should provide enough offense to stick at the hot corner. If not, he’s versatile enough to also have played second base, shortstop and left field for Team USA. The 6-foot-1, 208-pounder is more athletic than most third basemen. He has an above-average arm, moves well and is a solid-average runner with good instincts.
#264@Peter Friberg:
Tell me about it! The scouting direction of this team pisses me off! I would love to be a fly on the wall in the draft room just to hear the reasoning and decisions being made. It really really interests me a ton! It really facinates me how different the scouting dept. values players that other scouts don’t and how they pass on players other scouts and teams wouldn’t.
#271@Peter Friberg: He may be there at 101. But do the Padres have any interest in him?
I wonder if they see Decker as a pitcher or an OF
Apparently, according to DePo’s blog, we want him as a hitter:
“Our scouts believe Decker may be as pure a high school hitter as there is in the country. More later.”
BA has him at 69 and we pick 69. I doubt he’ll be there.
266: Meyer is a guy that no one thinks will sign.
I think that calling Dykstra a signability pick is likely a mistake. He is represented by Boras. I’d bet that he will take at least slot money, and to me signability is taking less than slot.
Good numbers for Forsyth in college:
2008: 351/479/530 7HR 11SB
2007: 347/431/556 9HR 18SB
2006: 189/298/322 3HR 0 SB
He didn’t have a season like Headley’s junior year (387/530/689 63/28 BB/SO) but his sophmore year was much better. And if he’s versatile enough to play in the middle of the infield then he’d certainly have his uses.
Why hasn’t the 2nd round started, I’m tired of looking at Decker & Forsyth
#280@Peter Friberg: 45 minute break. It won’t start again until 3:15.
#278@Paul R: Interesting definition. Slot = signable to me, because you know exactly how much that is. I mean, very few kids in the top rounds sign for a meaningful amount below slot. Few thousand, in some cases. I think Revere signed for well under last year, but I haven’t checked.
Some Boras clients have signed quickly and for slot before.
I’m definitely not hating that Forsyth pick if his numbers were really hurt due to his injuries. Unfortunately it’s near impossible to compare college numbers because I have no idea about park factors but Forsyth hit significantly better then Khalil did in college (although seeing Khalil hit this year might scare you!).
Here’s something else from BA’s John Manuel about the 1st round: So the first round is over, and the last 10 picks were full of surprises. Who’s the bigger surprise, Allan Dykstra to San Diego, or Carlos Gutierrez to the Twins, or Lonnie Chisenhall to the Indians?
At least he says it was Chisenhall. Not good when “experts” think a terrible drafting team made a reach pick.
“Decker is a LHP/OF from Sunrise Mountain HS in Peoria, AZ. Though he throws 90 mph with a good curveball as a pitcher, we see Decker as a hitter and he’s a pure hitter.
A left-handed hitter, Decker has fantastic discipline, big power, and a beautiful swing. More than anything though, Decker has a natural rhythm and timing to hit that is innate to all great hitters. He hit 14 homers this spring in just 72 at-bats while also maintaining his patience as the opposition pitched around him. Jaff plays CF in high school, though we expect that he’ll be more of a corner outfielder in the long-term.
Though high school bats are always more risky, we think that Jaff has big bat potential and was worth the selection at 42. At present, he is committed to Arizona State. We were thrilled to get him.” – DePo
DePo has more information about both Forstyh and Decker. Seems encouraging.
Forsyth does look interesting, I just wonder about a 3B when we are in decent shape for now at that position. Decker I don’t like and I just see too much wishful thinking
“Logan is a 3B for the University of Arkansas, though he played all around the diamond for Team USA last summer (he has also caught in the past).
Known for incredible makeup, Logan has been a coach and fan favorite. He played the entire summer for Team USA with a broken foot and refused to come out of games. Furthermore, he continually showed his best performances against the best competition and in the biggest moments.
A right-handed hitter, he has tremendous control of the strike zone while consistently hitting for high average and extra base power. At this point, he has been more of a doubles guy than a homer guy, but we believe his advanced approach and strength will translate to more home run power as a pro. Logan has also stolen 29 bases over the past two years. In short, we think this is a very well-rounded player with great intangibles.” – DePo
Here’s a little game we can play. Can anyone correctly predict the Padres pick? We can go round by round. I mean so far our guesses or hopes have all been WAY off and I don’t think anyone has any real clue WTF the Padres are thinking so it’s probably going to be hard.
#286@Loren: He allegedly can play middle IF. That might be a great thing for us.
#287@Richard Wade: Possible conversion to catcher maybe?
Here’s what Law had to say about Dykstra:
He’s a big, strong first baseman with a chance to hit for power. His approach is pull-oriented; I have to see him use the whole field to believe he’ll hit for average and to really profile offensively at first. He’s no better than average at first base and can’t play third. This was probably a Plan B pick because the player they wanted was Havens.
Richard B. Wade said…
Would you classify any of these guys as sign-ability picks, or would you take these guys regardless of bonus demands?
Paul DePodesta said…
Allan Dykstra has Scott Boras as an agent.
We’re taking the players that excite us.
tick, tick, tick… let’s get going…
Scheppers was the 2nd pick of the 2nd round by the Pirates of all teams. I guess they are figuring that they pick healthy pitchers who then get injured, maybe they should start taking injured pitchers who will then get healthy. Again, even if he never gets over his injury, he’s no worse then their usual first round pitcher pick.
The Brewers just took Cutter Dykstra (Len’s son) with the 54th pick. I was hoping for dual-Dykstra’s!
NOOOOO!!! Ladendorf to Twins @ 60
Tim Melville’s still available. They drafted a high school pitcher (Tommy Toledo) last year in the 3rd round and didn’t sign him, maybe they will do the same this year?
Ladendorf and Raben are gone. Now what, maybe Nieto?
#292@Richard Wade: Ah, DePo, a man so precise with his words is a joy. But while many people see Boras as getting a premium for all his players, its just not necessarily true.
Dykstra was interviewed by the NC Times recently and it sounded pretty clear like he was ready to play pro ball.
Another third baseman? Interesting…