Grab a beverage, sit down, and get comfy. Well, maybe not that comfy; seriously, dude, have a little dignity.
As you know, MLB’s First-Year Player Draft is upon us. What’s in store for the Padres? Good question. Let’s take a look, shall we…
Draft Class Strengths and Weaknesses
Thursday, June 5, 2008
11 a.m. PT
ESPN2
MLB.com
XM 180 (names), 186 (commentary)
The 2008 draft class features plenty of first baseman and relievers, but not much in the way of college pitching and middle infielders. According to Grady Fuson (for some reason not by-lined in the online version), the Padres are looking to add catching depth, corner outfielders with power, pitching, and perhaps help at shortstop if there’s any to be found. He also notes that their emphasis in on procuring the best available talent, not filling any specific needs:
You never want to go into a draft and say this is what the big league club doesn’t have, so this is what we’re going to draft. If you need a shortstop and it’s a terrible draft for shortstops, do you still take a shortstop? That would be crazy.
This is the old “draft for talent, trade for need” axiom at work. Paul DePodesta echoes these sentiments at his blog, with one notable caveat:
Every team out there always needs more good players at every position, especially at the lower levels of the minor league system. Rarely do teams target players in the draft with their immediate Major League needs in mind, with the one exception being a top end reliever. In recent years more and more college relievers have been selected in the top rounds of the draft in hopes that they could get to the big leagues quickly to fill a role.
I am not a big fan of drafting relievers early, but sometimes it works. Washington’s Chad Cordero (#20 overall in 2003) is one recent example. Another first-rounder taken in that same draft, Ryan Wagner (now Cordero’s teammate), hasn’t met with the same kind of success, reminding us yet again that “safe” is a relative concept.
Also, if Kevin Towers has shown us anything during his tenure as Padres GM, it’s that there are plenty of ways — this season notwithstanding — to build a strong bullpen. This doesn’t mean a team should avoid college relievers altogether, of course, just that maybe they’re not the top priority.
Great, but how does all this jibe with what the Padres have done in recent years?
Padres Draft History and Tendencies
MB at Friar Forecast notes that about 70% of the Padres’ draft picks from 2005 to 2007 have been used on college players. Looking back even further, the Padres have had 54 picks in the first or first supplemental round since their inception in 1969. Out of those, five have gone onto become stars:
- Dave Winfield (1973, #4 overall)
- Kevin McReynolds (1981, #6)
- Andy Benes (1988, #1)
- Derrek Lee (1993, #14)
- Khalil Greene (2002, #14)
In other words, it happens about once every eight years or so. Several others — Mike Ivie, Dave Roberts, Bill Almon, Bob Owchinko, Andy Hawkins, Bob Geren, Jimmy Jones, Shane Mack, Thomas Howard, Scott Sanders, Joey Hamilton, Dustin Hermanson, Ben Davis, and Sean Burroughs — have enjoyed varying degrees of success.
Players That Interest Me at #23
Who do I like? Well, bearing in mind that I’m getting my information second- and third-hand (from what I consider reliable sources, but still), here are some “persons of interest” as they say on the cop shows. Those of you who have been following along the past couple weeks will recognize many of these names:
- Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State U. (bio | report)
Considered a potential top 10 pick just a few months ago, a shoulder injury has made him one of the wild cards of this class. Whoever picks Scheppers will be assuming a great deal of risk, something the Padres may be reluctant to do both on general principle and because of their recent experiences with Tim Stauffer, Cesar Carrillo, and Nick Schmidt. - Casey Kelly, SS/RHP, Sarasota (Fla.) HS (report)
The son of former big-league infielder Pat Kelly has a high ceiling but is committed to play quarterback at Tennessee. There are some concerns about Kelly’s bat and signability. - Jemile Weeks, 2B, U. of Miami (bio | report)
Rickie’s younger brother possesses offensive skills that the Padres covet. He gets on base and runs well, an excellent combination for Petco Park. He may move to center field, which is still a premium defensive position. Weeks is one of the few guys on my list who might legitimately be on the Padres’ radar. - Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills (Calif.) HS (report)
Collier has crazy upside, but is raw. I don’t see the Padres taking on this much risk. - Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury School (Conn.) (report)
Another unpolished guy with tools galore, Hewitt evokes comparisons to Ron Gant and Bo Jackson (!) for his athleticism. Reports on the degree to which Hewitt is or will be able to use that ability in a meaningful way are varied. History is littered with tremendously talented individuals who just weren’t very good at baseball — Reggie Abercrombie, Joe Borchard, Drew Henson, Michael Jordan, Ruben Rivera, to name a few.
Players That Might Interest the Padres at #23
Given what we think we know about how the Padres operate, here are a few players they might be targeting with their first pick:
- Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian U. (bio | report)
Cashner’s fastball runs 96-98 mph, but his command is spotty. He has been used as a starter and reliever in college, but has had more success out of the ‘pen. - Jason Castro, C, Stanford U. (bio | report)
Fuson has stated a desire to improve catching depth within the system, and Castro is the last of the big three. I don’t think he’ll slip to #23, but if he does, I imagine the Padres will give him serious consideration. - Weeks
- Ike Davis, 1B/OF, Arizona State U. (bio | report)
The son of former big-league reliever Ron Davis draws praise for his raw power and defensive abilities at first base. He also may be athletic enough to handle a corner outfield spot, although reports are mixed. Davis strikes me as a very Fuson-esque pick. He’s one of the more palatable “safe” guys in my estimation. - Ryan Perry, RHP, U. of Arizona (bio | report)
See Cashner. My fear is that the Padres will take one of these two relievers. - David Cooper, 1B, U. of California (bio | report)
Cooper is sort of a lesser version of Davis. He’s a borderline first-round pick who may end up being taken in the supplemental round instead. - Reese Havens, SS, U. of South Carolina (bio | report)
Consistent at bat and in the field, Havens has good pop for a middle infielder and draws praise for his makeup. As with Cooper, #23 might be a shade early for Havens. However, shortstop is a premium position so reaching for him isn’t out of the question. Havens also aligns well with the Padres’ preference for polished college guys.
Of these guys, I’d be happiest with Castro, Weeks, Davis, or Havens — roughly in that order. I don’t think Castro makes it to #23, and I’ve not heard anyone associate the Padres with Weeks. I’m bracing myself for one of the relievers, but I hope they don’t go that route.
Mock Drafts
What do the experts say? Plenty:
- Baseball America (Jim Callis), May 16, 2008: Ike Davis, 1B/OF, Arizona State U.. Yep. This is someone I imagine the Padres are seriously targeting. Assuming he’s available, Davis is a reasonable guess. The way Callis’ draft unfolds, I’d prefer to see the Padres take Weeks or possibly Hewitt, but I could live with Davis.
- MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo), May 28, 2008: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, U. of Arizona. This would be an overdraft and a mistake. Schlereth is a college reliever with a rocket arm, but… did I mention he’s a college reliever? Not really my thing. The way Mayo’s draft unfolds, I’d like Ethan Martin or Weeks, but I don’t see Martin slipping that far. Mayo is maintaining a blog as well, and his final projection (June 5) has the Padres taking Shooter Hunt (see Baseball Prospectus draft below). I’d be happy with Hunt.
- Minor League Ball (John Sickels and friends), May 31, 2008: Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Highland (Ill.) HS. Uh, no. The Padres haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since 2000 (Mark Phillips). Of those 54 first and supplemental first round picks we mentioned earlier, a total of eight have been spent on high school pitchers. Only two ended up making a positive contribution at the big-league level: Andy Hawkins (1978) and Jimmy Jones (1982). Towers notes that “There are two high school arms we like a lot who are projected to go probably in the top 10 choices — if they slid to us, we’d take either of them.” I’m not sure who he has in mind, but I don’t think either of them is Odorizzi.
- Sickels also gives his own personal take and has the Padres tabbing Ryan Perry, which makes a lot more sense. In his scenario, I’d take Collier, Weeks, or Davis ahead of Perry.
- Baseball Prospectus (Kevin Goldstein), June 4, 2008: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane. Hey look, a college pitcher with some upside. I hadn’t been targeting him, but Hunt would be a nice pick. Goldstein also mentions Havens, which seems reasonable, and Hewitt, which doesn’t. Quoth Goldstein: “That kind of player seems like the anti-definition of a Grady Fuson selection.” Yes, to say the very least. This could be a fascinating development if true.
- SaberScouting: 1-15 | 16-30 (Frankie Piliere and Kiley McDaniel), June 5, 2008: Lance Lynn, RHP, U. of Mississippi (Frankie), Havens (Kiley). Lynn? Yuck, that’s worse than Schlereth. They have the Phillies taking Hewitt or Aaron Hicks with the next pick. If Hicks somehow slips that far and the Padres don’t take him at #23, I’ll scream louder than I did when they passed on Michael Main last year. But Hicks seems to be a top 15 pick from what I can tell. I wonder if Hicks is one of the high school arms Towers alluded to the other day? Still, I don’t see him being available here.
- MadFriars (Ramiro Olivas Jr.). This is for the Padres only. They’ve got Texas outfielder Jordan Danks at #46. Danks strikes me as the type of player Fuson and company might covet, although this is perhaps too early. Junior college shortstop Tyler Ladendorf at #69 is a great idea, but I don’t see him lasting that long. My guess is if the Padres want him, they’ll need to pop him at #42 or maybe #46.
- Baseball Blogger Mock Draft (various, including yours truly), May 29 – June 1, 2008. I went with Cashner because that’s who I think the Padres would have taken at that point. Left to my own devices, I would have picked Collier or possibly Hewitt. We also did the supplemental first round, and I took Ladendorf at #42 and Oklahoma State shortstop Jordy Mercer at #46. Looks like Sickels also had us popping Ladendorf at #42. I think that pick just makes way too much sense. With luck, he’ll be there and the Padres like him as much as I do.
The Mercer pick is a reach. He’s a two-way player, and there were safer guys available — right-handers Zach Putnam and Bryan Price immediately leap to mind, but neither of them excited me much so I gambled. The players I was targeting with that pick — Wake Forest first baseman Allan Dykstra and Miami outfielder Dennis Raben — both went earlier than I’d expected and I kind of panicked, which is really stupid when you’ve got that much time to make your pick, but there it is.
My Wish List
This is nuts, but what the heck:
23. Weeks
42. Ladendorf
46. Dykstra or Raben
69. Adrian Nieto, C, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.
Peter Friberg’s Wish List
Peter, our resident draft maven and all-around good guy, actually inspired me to create my wish list with one of his own:
23. Scheppers, Hewitt, or Collier
42. Hewitt or Mike Montgomery
46. Ladendorf
69. Nick Maronde or Aaron Weatherford
I would love to see the Pads take Hewitt or Collier with their first pick, but both strike me as a bit too risky for the current regime’s tastes. Maronde is a high-school left-hander who sounds intriguing. I took him at #69 in the BBMD — Nieto was my target, but he got scooped up 12 picks ahead of me.
Now What?
Well, we watch and we wait. And then we wait and we watch. And when that’s all done…
Meanwhile, there are places to follow this stuff. Here are a few:
- 2008 Draft Tracker (MLB.com)
- Baseball America Draft Blog (BA)
Also, Eric SanInocencio and I will be blogging the draft over at Baseball Digest Daily. And I’m hoping to have at least a brief recap of the Padres draft up on Friday.
More coffee, please…
GY, I had a post eaten. It’s the SI article about Dykstra.
And the D-Backs taking Schlereth, XM is labeling this a shocker.
I’m guessing Melville & Cole have tremendous pricetags…
#202@Peter Friberg: They must, since they’re still available.
#186@Richard Wade: He also might have been there at 42. Maybe the more talented players will be, too, but if they ranked him as the best player available, they’re using a different scale than everybody else.
So is it a good thing that DePo thinks this is a wise pick? Is this just FO spin?
Quoting the SI article:
But Boras agrees that while it’s true that many mid- to lower-tier first round talents may be flawed (generally keeping their bonuses to low seven-figure totals), he says that the identifiably special players almost always make it. “It’s good business to pay the right players,” Boras says. “The $4 million players have all turned out to be excellent players. The history is rather extraordinary.
#204@Tom Waits: Not making an argument. Just posting what DePodesta said for those not following his blog.
Is this Lenny Dykstras son they drafted ?
If so, I have a story on him from the NYT but my post keeps getting eaten.
#204@Tom Waits:
That sounds familiar.
And there goes Cole to the Yankees.
NY will meet Cole’s pricetag
According to XM, Cole is this year’s Rick Porcello. Allegedly there are HUGE signability issues with him. He’s got a committment to UCLA.
So, given this, was it a wise move for the Padres to avoid him?
#196@Ben B.: No, LaPorta had even more power, less mechanical questions, and more athleticism. Dykstra…..there are just enough questions about key parts of the game, plus the fact that he was probably going to last.
#208@parlo: Nope, different guy.
No offense but if the only reason we can state that picking Dykstra was a good move was the validation OF HIS AGENT, and a SCHMUCK of an agent at that who is notorious for getting huge amounts of money for his clients, then that’s really sad. He’s of course going to say things like this because he wants to get paid more money.
I’m glad to see my second favorite team got the front line starter in Cole at least
#208@parlo: According to XM, no
#212@Phantom:
If he didn’t sign then we have 2 first rounders next season. At least it means they would have tried. I like Dykstra but I liked him at 42 or 46. 23 with the players they were still there just hurts! Here is to hoping Collier slips (snow ball’s chance in hell) to 42.
HUGE amounts of money for his clients that are good.
#215@Loren: As much of a schmuck as Boars is, he’s got a pretty good track record. It’s in his interest to not hurt his brand, and to this point, his brand is pretty damn good players.
Just curious: has anyone ever done an analysis of all these mock drafts and compared them to how the actual drafts pan out? I’m just wondering how meaningful it is to say Dykstra was a supplemental round guy when for all we know the consensus in the scouting community had him much higher.
Personally, I’m just glad to see them take a power hitter. I’m tired of hearing about our first round picks blowing out their arms or having no power. It’s more fun to follow a guy in the minors if he’s blasting them out of the park than it is to hear he’s throwing off a mound for the first time in a year. If it’s true that he has pull power that should play well at Petco, no?
#205@Phantom: What the heck is he going to say? “We once again decided to pick a defensively limited college player who has voiced his desire to start his professional career and can therefore be expected to sign for slot money, despite his advisor?”
#208@parlo: No, that’s Cutter Dykstra.
#212@Phantom: Cole has enough question marks that you can’t really fault them for it. He’s not in Porcello’s class, IMO, talent-wise. But there were a lot of talented kids left, and nobody was all that hot on Dykstra. Hopefully those talented kids are still around at 42 so it won’t matter.
#217@KRS1: But wouldn’t the fan base be even more pissed if you don’t get anything in the first round of the draft?
I mean, what’s worse here? Drafting someone maybe 20 picks too early, or drafting a guy we’d never sign and getting nothing for that spot?
I admit that I know next to nothing about these kids, by the way.
#220@Anthony: A couple years running, BA’s mock draft was close to perfect. It may be that teams stopped giving up so much information, because they felt it hurt their chances. They missed at 4 and 5
If the consensus on Dykstra was much higher, he’d have gone before 23, no? The Red Sox liked him three years ago, but it’s hard to see them liking him more than Casey Kelly.
#220@Anthony: A couple years running, BA’s mock draft was close to perfect. It may be that teams stopped giving up so much information, because they felt it hurt their chances.
If the consensus on Dykstra was much higher, he’d have gone before 23, no? The Red Sox liked him three years ago, but it’s hard to see them liking him more than Casey Kelly.
219@Phantom
Maybe so but let’s not forget he’s not an independent evaluator of talent, he’s an agent who’s goal is to push his players to be drafted at the highest level so he can get the most money. He’s had some success in picking players, granted, but I’d also like to know how many players he picked that crapped out. Seems lije the focus is just on his few successes
Thanks guys! I wasnt sure if Cutter was just a nickname, and Alan was his real name.
#223@Phantom: That would describe most of us here, I’d imagine.
#213@Tom Waits: I wasn’t comparing LaPorta to Dykstra, just the reactions of people here.
Also, why do people here think they have a better handle on how the draft is going to go than the front office? If the front office thought he was going to be available when they pick next, they wouldn’t have taken him with this pick.
#222@Phantom:
I don’t think so but I could be wrong.
I mean the argument is really simple from the Padres end.
Something like… “We took the most talented player he wanted well over the amount that MLB advises us to pay and he chose to go to college it was his decision not ours. On the bright side we have 2 1st round picks next year”
I honestly think the fan base would be happier with the team drafting a more talented player that may or may not sign (and getting the same pick next year if he doesn’t) than taking and paying too much for a guy they probably could have had later. At least it would appear that they are commited to attaining the best talent available when given the opportunity.
#224@Tom Waits: Thanks. I probably have a little (emhpasize little) more faith than most here that the Fuson and team know what they’re doing.
I also know next to nothing about these guys but like I said, I’m just glad it’s not a pitcher. Seems safer to me and from what little I’ve seen this guy has legit power, something we could definitely use.
#226@Loren: If teams didn’t think his players were good, they wouldn’t get drafted. Teams have dozens of scouts and analysts looking at these kids, they’re not being dazzled by a Boras PowerPoint presentation.
The teams aren’t independent evaluators of talent, either. Their goal is to get the best player they can as cheaply as they can. And those teams, with more resources than Boras, crap out on plenty of picks and decisions.
#229@Ben B.: Because as we all know the Padres have one of the dumbest front offices in baseball.
#232@Tom Waits
Granted but it seems that one of hte only sources that fans of this decision turn to is that Boras says he’ll be good. And I trust the teams to be independent more then the player’s agent ya know? Basically there’s little to suggest this was a good pick and I’m cranky bout it
The reason I’m not a huge fan of the Dykstra pick is that he has zero value other then his bat. And since his one tool doesn’t directly translate into major league baseball, because of aluminum bats, the size of the ballparks and the competition, he’s certainly no automatic pick. Add in the fact that he hasn’t really improved since his freshman year (he seems to have traded power for patience this past season) he certainly looks like a reach.
However, he was a much better hitter then Antonelli in college so it’s not a total lost cause.
#235@Schlom: Apparently he’s put up good numbers in the Cape Cod league, which uses wood bats. So I’m not sure how the aluminum bats part of your argument flies.
And as other said, the Padres wouldn’t have drafted him with this pick if they didn’t feel they needed to. We’re just going to have to wait and see what happens with him.
#233@Richard Wade: That’s the most important point in all of this. The reason we are criticizing this pick is because the Padres have continually shown that they aren’t very good at evaluating amateur talent. If the Red Sox, D-backs or Dodgers would have made the same pick, people would have a little more faith in him since those teams have proven they can ID good players.
Baseball America wasn’t too high on the pick, they had Dykstra rated 38th overall. This is from John Manuel: Dykstra has all kinds of power and patience, but unless the Padres think he can play third base, this is a bit of a reach at 23, plus they have Adrian Gonzalez, by far their best hitter, at first base. Dykstra has offensive ability to be a first-round pick, but the position, the Padres’ situation . . . makes this a tough fit for me.
#229@Ben B.: And as I replied, I don’t think the reaction would have been nearly as vocal if that had happened. I’d have still rather had a pitcher, but LaPorta’s offensive game was more complete.
As for the front office having a good handle on what else might happen….that doesn’t follow at all. If they’d identified Dykstra as meeting their key values (one of which is signability), they’d pick him at 23.
#236@Phantom: I don’t like the idea of evaluating someone off of the 100 or so AB’s they get in the Cape Cod league.
Again, it’s certainly possible that he turns out to be a good player. But since nobody else thought he was a high pick and the Padres aren’t very good at identifying talent, it seems like a reach.
#237@Schlom: I was, of course, being sarcastic.
Wow, the Twins grab Hunt at 31.
#233@Richard Wade: Who’s saying dumb? I’m saying that the Padres didn’t necessarily have any concern about if Dykstra would be around at 42, and that saying they calculated it doesn’t hold water. It seems more likely that the intersection of ability, cost, and predictability landed on Dykstra, and that the other players (those more highly regarded) weren’t a consideration. So it’s not that they were worried that Dykstra wouldn’t be around, it’s that they wanted him.
I wish all the picks went as fast as the supplemental.
#237@Schlom: But again, you don’t draft for need. You draft for talent. People say this kid is a monster hitter. Even if he can’t play 1B for us because it’s blocked, maybe he’ll be a chip to get a good young CF or pitcher in the next few years.
Dude… The Phillies got Hewitt and Collier!
LUCKY!!!
#240@Richard Wade: They do have one of the dumbest front offices when it comes to the amateur draft — that’s not sarcasm. Towers is good at a lot of things, by the draft isn’t one of them.
Poop. There goes Collier.
#241@Tom Waits: Schlom seems to be pretty happy with calling them dumb.
Damn, a shame they couldn’t get Collier. Who else should we shoot for?
#238@Tom Waits: Not if they thought he would have been available when they next picked. They would have chosen someone else they liked that they thought would be picked before their next selection. There is some tradeoff between how much they like him and the probability he gets picked.
#242@Phantom: Yeah, he can be turned into something for sure. Of course that’s also true of the other kids.
#243@KRS1: Not luck. Well, lucky for their fans, I guess.
#244@Schlom: Can not agree with that. Not the best, laboring under restrictions, but not dumb.
#242@Phantom: True enough if Dykstra was so much better then the other options. Certainly the fact that he can only play 1B (and the Padres already have one and Blanks is only 8 months older) should have some sort of bearing on their pick.
Tim Melville is still out there, if they take a signability pick in the 1st round they better spend some money in their later picks.