Padres 2008 Draft Odyssey
Thu, Jun 5, 2008
by Geoff Young
Grab a beverage, sit down, and get comfy. Well, maybe not that comfy; seriously, dude, have a little dignity.
As you know, MLB’s First-Year Player Draft is upon us. What’s in store for the Padres? Good question. Let’s take a look, shall we…
Draft Class Strengths and Weaknesses
Thursday, June 5, 2008
11 a.m. PT
ESPN2
MLB.com
XM 180 (names), 186 (commentary)
The 2008 draft class features plenty of first baseman and relievers, but not much in the way of college pitching and middle infielders. According to Grady Fuson (for some reason not by-lined in the online version), the Padres are looking to add catching depth, corner outfielders with power, pitching, and perhaps help at shortstop if there’s any to be found. He also notes that their emphasis in on procuring the best available talent, not filling any specific needs:
You never want to go into a draft and say this is what the big league club doesn’t have, so this is what we’re going to draft. If you need a shortstop and it’s a terrible draft for shortstops, do you still take a shortstop? That would be crazy.
This is the old “draft for talent, trade for need” axiom at work. Paul DePodesta echoes these sentiments at his blog, with one notable caveat:
Every team out there always needs more good players at every position, especially at the lower levels of the minor league system. Rarely do teams target players in the draft with their immediate Major League needs in mind, with the one exception being a top end reliever. In recent years more and more college relievers have been selected in the top rounds of the draft in hopes that they could get to the big leagues quickly to fill a role.
I am not a big fan of drafting relievers early, but sometimes it works. Washington’s Chad Cordero (#20 overall in 2003) is one recent example. Another first-rounder taken in that same draft, Ryan Wagner (now Cordero’s teammate), hasn’t met with the same kind of success, reminding us yet again that “safe” is a relative concept.
Also, if Kevin Towers has shown us anything during his tenure as Padres GM, it’s that there are plenty of ways — this season notwithstanding — to build a strong bullpen. This doesn’t mean a team should avoid college relievers altogether, of course, just that maybe they’re not the top priority.
Great, but how does all this jibe with what the Padres have done in recent years?
Padres Draft History and Tendencies
MB at Friar Forecast notes that about 70% of the Padres’ draft picks from 2005 to 2007 have been used on college players. Looking back even further, the Padres have had 54 picks in the first or first supplemental round since their inception in 1969. Out of those, five have gone onto become stars:
- Dave Winfield (1973, #4 overall)
- Kevin McReynolds (1981, #6)
- Andy Benes (1988, #1)
- Derrek Lee (1993, #14)
- Khalil Greene (2002, #14)
In other words, it happens about once every eight years or so. Several others — Mike Ivie, Dave Roberts, Bill Almon, Bob Owchinko, Andy Hawkins, Bob Geren, Jimmy Jones, Shane Mack, Thomas Howard, Scott Sanders, Joey Hamilton, Dustin Hermanson, Ben Davis, and Sean Burroughs — have enjoyed varying degrees of success.
Players That Interest Me at #23
Who do I like? Well, bearing in mind that I’m getting my information second- and third-hand (from what I consider reliable sources, but still), here are some “persons of interest” as they say on the cop shows. Those of you who have been following along the past couple weeks will recognize many of these names:
- Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State U. (bio | report)
Considered a potential top 10 pick just a few months ago, a shoulder injury has made him one of the wild cards of this class. Whoever picks Scheppers will be assuming a great deal of risk, something the Padres may be reluctant to do both on general principle and because of their recent experiences with Tim Stauffer, Cesar Carrillo, and Nick Schmidt. - Casey Kelly, SS/RHP, Sarasota (Fla.) HS (report)
The son of former big-league infielder Pat Kelly has a high ceiling but is committed to play quarterback at Tennessee. There are some concerns about Kelly’s bat and signability. - Jemile Weeks, 2B, U. of Miami (bio | report)
Rickie’s younger brother possesses offensive skills that the Padres covet. He gets on base and runs well, an excellent combination for Petco Park. He may move to center field, which is still a premium defensive position. Weeks is one of the few guys on my list who might legitimately be on the Padres’ radar. - Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills (Calif.) HS (report)
Collier has crazy upside, but is raw. I don’t see the Padres taking on this much risk. - Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury School (Conn.) (report)
Another unpolished guy with tools galore, Hewitt evokes comparisons to Ron Gant and Bo Jackson (!) for his athleticism. Reports on the degree to which Hewitt is or will be able to use that ability in a meaningful way are varied. History is littered with tremendously talented individuals who just weren’t very good at baseball — Reggie Abercrombie, Joe Borchard, Drew Henson, Michael Jordan, Ruben Rivera, to name a few.
Players That Might Interest the Padres at #23
Given what we think we know about how the Padres operate, here are a few players they might be targeting with their first pick:
- Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian U. (bio | report)
Cashner’s fastball runs 96-98 mph, but his command is spotty. He has been used as a starter and reliever in college, but has had more success out of the ‘pen. - Jason Castro, C, Stanford U. (bio | report)
Fuson has stated a desire to improve catching depth within the system, and Castro is the last of the big three. I don’t think he’ll slip to #23, but if he does, I imagine the Padres will give him serious consideration. - Weeks
- Ike Davis, 1B/OF, Arizona State U. (bio | report)
The son of former big-league reliever Ron Davis draws praise for his raw power and defensive abilities at first base. He also may be athletic enough to handle a corner outfield spot, although reports are mixed. Davis strikes me as a very Fuson-esque pick. He’s one of the more palatable “safe” guys in my estimation. - Ryan Perry, RHP, U. of Arizona (bio | report)
See Cashner. My fear is that the Padres will take one of these two relievers. - David Cooper, 1B, U. of California (bio | report)
Cooper is sort of a lesser version of Davis. He’s a borderline first-round pick who may end up being taken in the supplemental round instead. - Reese Havens, SS, U. of South Carolina (bio | report)
Consistent at bat and in the field, Havens has good pop for a middle infielder and draws praise for his makeup. As with Cooper, #23 might be a shade early for Havens. However, shortstop is a premium position so reaching for him isn’t out of the question. Havens also aligns well with the Padres’ preference for polished college guys.
Of these guys, I’d be happiest with Castro, Weeks, Davis, or Havens — roughly in that order. I don’t think Castro makes it to #23, and I’ve not heard anyone associate the Padres with Weeks. I’m bracing myself for one of the relievers, but I hope they don’t go that route.
Mock Drafts
What do the experts say? Plenty:
- Baseball America (Jim Callis), May 16, 2008: Ike Davis, 1B/OF, Arizona State U.. Yep. This is someone I imagine the Padres are seriously targeting. Assuming he’s available, Davis is a reasonable guess. The way Callis’ draft unfolds, I’d prefer to see the Padres take Weeks or possibly Hewitt, but I could live with Davis.
- MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo), May 28, 2008: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, U. of Arizona. This would be an overdraft and a mistake. Schlereth is a college reliever with a rocket arm, but… did I mention he’s a college reliever? Not really my thing. The way Mayo’s draft unfolds, I’d like Ethan Martin or Weeks, but I don’t see Martin slipping that far. Mayo is maintaining a blog as well, and his final projection (June 5) has the Padres taking Shooter Hunt (see Baseball Prospectus draft below). I’d be happy with Hunt.
- Minor League Ball (John Sickels and friends), May 31, 2008: Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Highland (Ill.) HS. Uh, no. The Padres haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since 2000 (Mark Phillips). Of those 54 first and supplemental first round picks we mentioned earlier, a total of eight have been spent on high school pitchers. Only two ended up making a positive contribution at the big-league level: Andy Hawkins (1978) and Jimmy Jones (1982). Towers notes that “There are two high school arms we like a lot who are projected to go probably in the top 10 choices — if they slid to us, we’d take either of them.” I’m not sure who he has in mind, but I don’t think either of them is Odorizzi.
- Sickels also gives his own personal take and has the Padres tabbing Ryan Perry, which makes a lot more sense. In his scenario, I’d take Collier, Weeks, or Davis ahead of Perry.
- Baseball Prospectus (Kevin Goldstein), June 4, 2008: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane. Hey look, a college pitcher with some upside. I hadn’t been targeting him, but Hunt would be a nice pick. Goldstein also mentions Havens, which seems reasonable, and Hewitt, which doesn’t. Quoth Goldstein: “That kind of player seems like the anti-definition of a Grady Fuson selection.” Yes, to say the very least. This could be a fascinating development if true.
- SaberScouting: 1-15 | 16-30 (Frankie Piliere and Kiley McDaniel), June 5, 2008: Lance Lynn, RHP, U. of Mississippi (Frankie), Havens (Kiley). Lynn? Yuck, that’s worse than Schlereth. They have the Phillies taking Hewitt or Aaron Hicks with the next pick. If Hicks somehow slips that far and the Padres don’t take him at #23, I’ll scream louder than I did when they passed on Michael Main last year. But Hicks seems to be a top 15 pick from what I can tell. I wonder if Hicks is one of the high school arms Towers alluded to the other day? Still, I don’t see him being available here.
- MadFriars (Ramiro Olivas Jr.). This is for the Padres only. They’ve got Texas outfielder Jordan Danks at #46. Danks strikes me as the type of player Fuson and company might covet, although this is perhaps too early. Junior college shortstop Tyler Ladendorf at #69 is a great idea, but I don’t see him lasting that long. My guess is if the Padres want him, they’ll need to pop him at #42 or maybe #46.
- Baseball Blogger Mock Draft (various, including yours truly), May 29 - June 1, 2008. I went with Cashner because that’s who I think the Padres would have taken at that point. Left to my own devices, I would have picked Collier or possibly Hewitt. We also did the supplemental first round, and I took Ladendorf at #42 and Oklahoma State shortstop Jordy Mercer at #46. Looks like Sickels also had us popping Ladendorf at #42. I think that pick just makes way too much sense. With luck, he’ll be there and the Padres like him as much as I do.
The Mercer pick is a reach. He’s a two-way player, and there were safer guys available — right-handers Zach Putnam and Bryan Price immediately leap to mind, but neither of them excited me much so I gambled. The players I was targeting with that pick — Wake Forest first baseman Allan Dykstra and Miami outfielder Dennis Raben — both went earlier than I’d expected and I kind of panicked, which is really stupid when you’ve got that much time to make your pick, but there it is.
My Wish List
This is nuts, but what the heck:
23. Weeks
42. Ladendorf
46. Dykstra or Raben
69. Adrian Nieto, C, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.
Peter Friberg’s Wish List
Peter, our resident draft maven and all-around good guy, actually inspired me to create my wish list with one of his own:
23. Scheppers, Hewitt, or Collier
42. Hewitt or Mike Montgomery
46. Ladendorf
69. Nick Maronde or Aaron Weatherford
I would love to see the Pads take Hewitt or Collier with their first pick, but both strike me as a bit too risky for the current regime’s tastes. Maronde is a high-school left-hander who sounds intriguing. I took him at #69 in the BBMD — Nieto was my target, but he got scooped up 12 picks ahead of me.
Now What?
Well, we watch and we wait. And then we wait and we watch. And when that’s all done…
Meanwhile, there are places to follow this stuff. Here are a few:
- 2008 Draft Tracker (MLB.com)
- Baseball America Draft Blog (BA)
Also, Eric SanInocencio and I will be blogging the draft over at Baseball Digest Daily. And I’m hoping to have at least a brief recap of the Padres draft up on Friday.
More coffee, please…
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June 5, 2008 at 7:37 am
GY, thanks for the break down. This is really helpful for those of us who aren’t that familiar with the draft.
Anybody know if the draft is going to be carried live on XM or anything like that. Are we going to liveblog this biotch?
June 5, 2008 at 7:46 am
Wow, thanks for pub Geoff…
My wish list has changed (well not really, but some of those guys probably will not be there when I want them).
Original:
23. Scheppers, Hewitt, or Collier
42. Hewitt or Mike Montgomery
46. Ladendorf
69. Nick Maronde or Aaron Weatherford
Now…
23. Collier or Davis (Hewitt’s list of questions is growing, see Kevin Goldstein’s article at BP)
42. Ladendorf (Hewitt & Montgomery should be gone - if either is there, pop one of those two and take Ladendorf at 46)
46. Daniel Webb, Allan Dykstra, Zach Putnam
This is the first draft where I have had zero insight to where the Padres are pointed. BA just posted their Mock and have us taking Schlereth…
June 5, 2008 at 7:47 am
…oh, I still like Maronde at 69
June 5, 2008 at 7:52 am
Heck, I’ve been posting draft stuff over at the farm report. Here’s a repeat:
BA’s final mock draft is finally up, and they have us taking Daniel Schlereth, LH reliever out of Arizona. Big names that BA predicts to still be on the board at that point include Collier, Castro, Havens, and Kelly.
I really can’t see how a college reliever who has already undergone Tommy John surgery would represent the “best available player” if those other kids are there.
For what it’s worth, Schlereth ranks 60th on the BA list of draftable players. That would sure seem to suggest that he might be available with our supplemental picks rather than our very first one.
BA predicts Shooter Hunt to go at 24. I don’t know that he’d be included in my list of big names anymore; he seems to be this year’s equivalent of Nick Schmidt: supposedly durable with pretty good stuff but more pedestrian results than you’d expect.
BA does not have Hewitt going to anyone in the first round, but they do say that Philly and Colorado have interest in him.
June 5, 2008 at 7:58 am
If anyone cares, I answered my own question. Draft names at XM 180, draft commentary at XM 186.
June 5, 2008 at 7:58 am
TW, what’s your wish list?
June 5, 2008 at 8:01 am
Schlereth would be one of those picks that would just kill me. I watched him in hs and he’s one of those kids that is consistently overrated because his father was a professional athlete. He would be a mistake.
I saw Kelly play last year in FL and I would love to see him chosen, if they think he’s actually signable. That guy is good.
Otherwise, I’d like to see Weeks or Havens.
June 5, 2008 at 8:07 am
My own wishlist for 23 is:
1. Hewitt
2. Hunt
3. Collier
4. Havens
5. Ike Davis
What do I think the Padres will do?
1. Hunt (if he falls)
2. Havens
3. College reliever
4. Davis
5. Lynn
I will be very disappointed if we draft a college reliever and several of the above names are on the board, especially Hunt. Hunt was once seen as a top 15 pick and has apparently slipped. I think he has more upside than someone like Schmidt and would be a good value at 23. But mostly I would like them to draft a hitter. A reliever just screams signability to me. If its Schlereth, I agree with TW, how can one make the case that a lefthanded reliever, who has a past filled with injuries, is the BPA? I understand there may be a need to replace Hoffman in the very near future, but is this the best way to go about it?
June 5, 2008 at 8:08 am
#4@Tom Waits, #7@Winfield’s Ghost: Of the names I’ve seen mentioned, two scare the heck out of me: Schlereth and Lynn. I really don’t want to see us go that route.
#5@Phantom: Thanks, man, I’ve added those up top. Ah, XM 186; that would explain why tonight’s game isn’t on XM at all…
June 5, 2008 at 8:40 am
Scheppers is way too risky, reportedly he may have a labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. But with the Padres history, maybe he makes sense — the inevitable injury happens now, instead of later!
What I don’t understand is why they wouldn’t take a high school pitcher. Their one success (I’ll leave Greene out of it since he’s basically the same player as when they drafted him, he hasn’t improved a bit) is Jake Peavy, a high school pitcher. They’ve pretty much failed everywhere else (which is another argument for taking a reliever, they haven’t tried that yet) so why not try something that has worked?
June 5, 2008 at 8:42 am
I started researching more about the other teams will do and Weeks will likely NOT be available for us (as most of you probably know). The Mets covet him and have 2 picks before us 18 & 22.
Re. Schlereth: I don’t think he’s overrated b/c of his father, I think he’s highly rated b/c of his father. Success is hard work. He witnessed his dad’s work ethic to succeed. Now, that said, I don’t WANT Schlereth, but if we got him at 42 or 46 (as long as it was not at the expence of Ladendorf) I wouldn’t mind.
I’m seeing more informed Mocks that have Davis picked ahead of us. I’m thinking it might be Hunt or Collier (the Collier choice is me reading between the line - heck, it’s me writing the story between the lines).
June 5, 2008 at 8:44 am
#6@Peter Friberg: My “wish list” has been Ike Davis … but KG’s description in his chat yesterday as “not athletic enough to play OF” has me worried. I wish I’d have seen him play … has anyone here seen him play? Eh, I guess it won’t matter if the Padres don’t draft him. My wish list is “best bat available” … and I think that might be Ike Davis, a guy who might slip a bit in draft position just due to an injury in the middle of the season. In other words, if he doesn’t get injured and continued to put up the #s he was putting up, then it seems like he’d have been a top15, if not top10 pick … that seems like value at #23.
TW? This question (what’s your wish list?) was actually directed at you … and I’d be interested to see your wish list too. Any others? Now’s the time to lay the “I told you so” foundation …
June 5, 2008 at 8:53 am
Geoff & I were talking, Ike was a pitcher, so he has a RF’s arm. I’ve heard conflicting reports about his athleticism.
MiLB is reporting the Rays are taking Tim Beckham #1
June 5, 2008 at 8:56 am
#11@Peter Friberg: Yeah, I agree because I think it’s really one and the same. He’s highly rated because scouts hope the work ethic is there and they are willing to overlook things that aren’t necessarily there because of that. I just don’t buy that the work ethic should trump what would otherwise be a very average skill set for his position.
June 5, 2008 at 8:58 am
Here’s a general question for you … would you prefer the Padres take a player whose stock is falling … or a player whose stock is rising … or a player whose projection has stablized in the 20-25 range?
A player whose stock is falling would seem to get a label of “value pick” …
A player whose stock is rising will be labeled “a reach” …
A player whose stock has stablized will be labeled as “a safe pick” …
Then, to mix subjects in my post, I wish one of you folks who rant on wanting “high upside” would post a list of players with “high upside” … and make the list long enough so that the risk will be obvious 3-5 years from now (ie. make it so that there’s at least 10 players who will still be on the board at #23). We all know that list starts with Hewitt … I’m fine with the Padres passing on Hewitt @ #23 … if he doesn’t get taken higher than #23, he’s going to Vandy …
June 5, 2008 at 8:58 am
Geoff/Anybody - how does the Pads 70% of players drafted being from college compare to the rest of the league? I am not a draft-nik, so based on comments that I have read here since finding this site, I am guessing that is high, but using terms stolen from Spaceballs, is that high, really high, rediculously high or ludicrously high?
June 5, 2008 at 9:08 am
Wish List, somewhat filtered for who should be available:
23: Collier, Havens, Hunt, Castro
42 / 46: Ladendorf, Gillaspie (who seems to have fallen off mock drafts), Galloway, Spruill (actually several HS pitchers would be great here)
69: Be tempted to grab Brett Hunter here. Big risk, but as a college kid more likely to be an affordable one. He might even last to 101.
June 5, 2008 at 9:20 am
The two high school arms that could go in the top 10 and may drop to the Padres has to be Cole and Hicks. In all three mock drafts (BA, BP, MLB) Hicks goes either 14th or 12th, while 2 have Cole going 21st (to the Tigers) with the MLB mock leaving him out of the first round. So it’s possible Cole will be there. However, I don’t see how the Padres could pass on Porcello (a much higher regarded pitcher) to take a lower regarded pitcher with huge makeup concerns.
June 5, 2008 at 9:22 am
#15@LynchMob: If you want people to post information, perhaps it would be better not to characterize their presentation as “ranting.”
Where Hewitt gets picked will have much less to do with his choice than the numbers he is offered. If a team picks him in the 13th round and gives him enough money, he’ll turn pro.
#16@Farquaad: It’s higher than 70% if we count what matters, which is players we signed. I don’t mind a college-centric approach, as long as there is some mix of premium talent (which necessarily includes signing more than a few token HS kids). Other teams have gone college-heavy in the recent past, but most of them have modified their approach after not seeing the returns they wanted. The Blue Jays are a prime example. The Red Sox draft slightly more college players than HS kids, but they sign more of them. Not that they don’t miss; they didn’t close the deal with Pedro Alvarez and Kyle Snyder out of HS, and they couldn’t convince LaPorta to take their offer
June 5, 2008 at 9:27 am
#18@Schlom: The latest BA blog says the talk of Cole to Detroit has died down. I agree with you in terms of his desirability, Cole has mechanical questions along with other concerns. He’s no Porcello in terms of risk/reward, although he could turn out better of course.
June 5, 2008 at 9:29 am
TW I’m w/ you on Collier. He’s really my first choice (assuming other I like more are taken).
June 5, 2008 at 9:30 am
Well put Lynch
June 5, 2008 at 9:31 am
#18@Schlom: I was going to post first thing this morning with a general question: How long until Schlom invokes the name Porcello? Apparently, it was 18 posts.
#10@Schlom: I think you are saying this tongue-in-cheek but I’m not sure. I hope you wouldn’t base your draft strategy around one successful 15th round pick.
June 5, 2008 at 9:35 am
#15@LynchMob: Well said. We get a lot of requests for higher upside players on this site with little or no mention of specific names. That makes it pretty easy to bash any and every pick that is made by the Padres while claiming that you knew better.
June 5, 2008 at 9:37 am
#19@Tom Waits: re: characterization … point taken, thanks … I’ve been having the same issue in dealings with IT support folks lately, and it is counter-productive …
June 5, 2008 at 9:41 am
#15@LynchMob:
#22@Peter Friberg:
As we all know, there will be high-upside picks who no team will take at 23, and in fact would be too risky there. A lot depends on which pick we’re talking about. Jordan Danks is a huge reach at 23, even though he has very good upside. At 101 that could be a solid pick.
June 5, 2008 at 9:49 am
#24@BigWorm: People have mentioned all kinds of high-upside names. GY’s entire early draft review was high-upside players. And during last year’s draft discussion, people brought up tons of names as the Padres picked. Michael Main. Michael Burgess. Nevin Griffith. Matt Harvey. It just makes no sense to try to compile a list of “high upside” players as if there’s one defining characteristic. It all depends on who is still on the board compared to who the Padres take.
Even when / if the Padres pop somebody who won’t immediately settle for slot, they still have to sign him. Tommy Toledo was a good buy in the 3rd round last year, solid upside. So was Christian Colon several rounds later. Good picks, but unless you get them to sign on the line that is dotted, no practical effect. The Padres don’t pick many high-upside players….some, not many. They sign a very small number of them.
June 5, 2008 at 9:58 am
If you’d like to be a little more excited about the prospect of drafting Shooter Hunt, here’s a scouting report on him from an outing in the Cape Cod league last summer. Plus, just focus on the name Shooter Hunt. How could a guy named Shooter Hunt be a bad pick?
http://saberscouting.wordpress.....er-hunter/
June 5, 2008 at 9:59 am
#23@BigWorm: Sort of a joke but when you drafted as poorly as the Padres have, you might as well point to your successes!
I also brought up Porcello only because Towers claims that the Padres may take a highly regarded high school pitcher who drops because of perceived bonus demands. However, if they didn’t do it last year why would they do it this year? That was my basic point, not complaining about the problem last year (I’ve done enough of that). Even if Cole drops to the Padres I’m not even sure they should draft him — the reports of his attitude and maturity level are kind of frightening.
June 5, 2008 at 10:03 am
#28@Ben B.: It’s a great name, and 3 months ago I’d have been very excited about him dropping to 23. But his loss of effectiveness as the season went on worries me some. Like I mentioned before, it sounds eerily like Schmidt.
June 5, 2008 at 10:03 am
Here’s something from the BA blog:
The Gerrit Cole to Detroit talk has stopped, and BA’s best guess now is that the hard-throwing California righthander falls to the Yankees at 28. What happens with the Tigers, however, is tougher to gauge. They’re probably going to wind up with another starting righthander, possibly Tulane’s Shooter Hunt or Georgia prep righty Ethan Martin, if he’s on the board. Another prep righty who could be there is Missouri prep righthander Tim Melville, who is falling and apparently won’t be the Cubs’ pick at 19. Melville had an uneven spring and also has informed teams through a letter that he will not sign unless he’s treated like a top-15 pick. He’s a North Carolina recruit.
That the Tigers are interested in Hunt makes me think that he’s worth a pick as they are really good at identifying good pitchers. Unfortunately they pick before the Padres. I wonder if Melville is one of the high school pitchers that could drop that Towers is targeting?
June 5, 2008 at 10:12 am
TW … what sources do you use to determine if a player is “high upside”? That way, a determination of Padres’ picks can be made after-the-draft … and take into account “which pick we’re talking about”.
re: “one defining charactertistic” … it sure seems like it’s become a common knock on the Padres that they don’t pick / sign enough “high upside players” … to the point where those making that knock treat it as a single defining characteristic … and that’s what ruffles my feathers … I read DePo as saying that to some extent all these guys have “high upside” … reaching MLB is “high” and every pick that the Padres make is with the expectation that the player can and will reach MLB …
Are you the “Tom” getting Q&A-time with DePo in his blog?
June 5, 2008 at 10:17 am
I’ll be cool with Collier, Hewitt, Hunt, Cole, Castro and probably a few others.
As long as we don’t take a reliever I will probably be cool. In the other picks I would love to see the Padres take any one of Galloway, Ladendorf, Nick Maronde, Brandon Crawford, Allan Dykstra, Sclereth, Jordan Danks. I think there are definitely some interesting names that will fall and I hope the Padres can take advantage of one or 2 of them. No harm in aquiring some + talent in this draft.
June 5, 2008 at 10:19 am
#27@Tom Waits: One thing I’m wondering — and I actually mentioned this in the book (under comments on Jeremy McBryde) — is how the elimination of the draft & follow process might affect the Padres’ decision making. Many of our high-risk/reward pitchers have gone that route — Latos, Miller, McBryde. It will be interesting to see whether the FO chooses to be a little more aggressive now that this option is no longer available.
June 5, 2008 at 10:27 am
#30@Tom Waits: I never read any reports on Schmidt that indicated he had anything close to the stuff Hunt has. Schmidt’s a lefty, he doesn’t need stuff! With Schmidt, it seemed more like the reports of him going higher in the first round were to teams that wanted to save money or take someone safe, now because he actually deserved to go that high. Sure, Hunt is a risk, but that’s why he’s available at 23 instead of being taken at 10.
June 5, 2008 at 10:34 am
#29@Schlom: Yeah, Cole concerns me as well - especially since if he decides to go to college (not likely if the Tigers or Yankees draft him), he’ll be at my alma mater and the attitude issues frighten me.
I was messing around with the Porcello comment - the Nick Schmidt pick looked bad even before he got injured.
June 5, 2008 at 10:39 am
#32@LynchMob: “High upside” can be a number of things. A 3rd round pick who has 70 power but below-average athleticism is an upside pick, because he could be an elite hitter even though he’s not the 4 or 5 tooler you’d want earlier in the draft. Upside = potential impact player, in my mind. Not probable role player (although that’s where most guys end up).
If you accept that definition of “upside” from DePo, then gosh, why aren’t the Padres doing better? They have 25 high-upside players on the major league roster right now! That’s right up there with saying that Brad Chalk is a high upside player. Yes, in terms of the general baseball playing population, even playing one pro game represents immense achievement. But unless they’re going to give him gene therapy, do they really think he’s got (e.g.) Johnny Damon bat potential?
There have been a number of requests that critics of the Padres draft strategy supply names, suggested rankings, etc. In return, why don’t those who believe the Padres are doing just fine provide some answers of their own?
1. How many “durable college starters” need to go down before you question the team’s approach? Two more? Four?
2. When Baseball America and other experts ranked the Padres system last, or next to last, the team and its defenders said that the rankings were unfair. Now that the team ranks higher, those are the first clubs out of the bag when the farm system is discussed. How is it possible for people to accept praise from certain experts but ignore criticism from the same sources?
June 5, 2008 at 10:41 am
SI.com has an interesting profile on Matt Bush. I’m surprised this is front page material: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
June 5, 2008 at 10:42 am
#36@BigWorm:
The Cole attitude issues don’t really bother until I know what they are. It sounds like from everything I have heard scouts think he is cocky. They said the same about Latos and Strasburg a couple of years ago. I would rather have a cocky kid that knows he’s good out there on the mound than some mental lightweight that is going to fold under the bright lights and crowds. To me it seems like if Scott Boras wasn’t his agent scouts and teams would be talking about his strong Clemens like demeanor on the mound. I don’t know the kid could be a mental case too but until I hear some examples or something it just sounds like a smokescreen.
June 5, 2008 at 10:54 am
Here’s something Paul R and I talked about this morning…
Kevin Goldstein said that in the first round you pick guys that could become super-stars. It’s really the only way to acquire a super-star (other trading a potential superstar(s) for an actual one)…
June 5, 2008 at 10:54 am
I guess it’s just me, but I can’t help but think of Shooter McGavin when I read Shooter Hunt, which doesn’t really inspire me to think well of young Mr. Hunt.
June 5, 2008 at 10:58 am
Revised & ranked wish list for 23:
Zach Collier
Ike Davis
Anthony Hewitt
Shooter Hunt
At least one of those guys will be available…
June 5, 2008 at 10:58 am
#41@Pat: You wouldn’t love to have a pitcher out there on the mound blowing smoke off his fingers after every strikeout?
June 5, 2008 at 11:04 am
Interesting article on Bush. Thanks for posting it. I will definitely be interested to see how he comes back from surgery.
June 5, 2008 at 11:05 am
#43@Ben B.: Well, yeah, but McGavin was such a jerk.
June 5, 2008 at 11:07 am
#39@KRS1: It’s not just Cole’s cocky attitude that’s a red flag, it’s also reported that his teammates don’t like him. He supposedly very immature. Now these are just reports so it may or may not be overblown but those are pretty serious negatives.
June 5, 2008 at 11:07 am
#40@Peter Friberg: That’s a nice thumbnail for “upside.” And it’s basically the main point of the pro-upside crowd. The Padres are not going to pay for elite free agents. That’s not a criticism (although people who blasted the Cubs for doing it might want to look at the standings both last year and this), but it cuts off one avenue. You can try trading for one, but you can’t make someone trade with you, and you have to give up talent to do it, which may hamper your ability to compete. Drafting and signing players gives you control over the WHO, the HOW LONG, and largely the HOW MUCH.
And upside, going to other points, is NOT synonymous with raw, or high school, or extremely expensive. If the Padres had switched places with the Pirates last year, I’d like to know if anyone thinks we would have picked Wieters rather than Moskos.
June 5, 2008 at 11:07 am
While I would have preferred Porcello, I take issue with the idea that Schmidt was a bad pick. Injuries are a concern with every pitcher that will be taken in the draft today–throwing a baseball is an unnatural thing and it does damage to pitchers arms, even those with seemingly perfect mechanics (look at the scouting reports on Mark Prior when he came out).
That being said, I do believe that the draft is the prime (perhaps the only) place where teams like the Padres can acquire superstar talent. For that reason, I’m keeping Hewitt near the top of my wish list this year. He’d bring athleticism to the system and be a possible impact talent.
Wish List @ 23
1. Melville
2. Hewitt
3. Hunt
4. Collier
I think that Towers was talking about Hicks and Melville when he mentioned arms…I hope that Melville gets to us.
June 5, 2008 at 11:11 am
28: Thanks for the link to the Hunt article–it’s a good read. Encouraging to hear him described as “high upside” and worthy of a 10-20 pick.
June 5, 2008 at 11:13 am
#37@Tom Waits: I think you’re going to be waiting awhile to hear from those who think the Padres are “doing just fine”. I may be wrong, but I’m pretty sure everyone on this board agrees that they have royally screwed up in most drafts since 1999.
June 5, 2008 at 11:18 am
#46@Schlom:
Again I don’t know the situation but it isn’t all that hard to believe that his high school teamates wouldn’t like him. You have a team full upper middle class kids that all have dreams of being the next superstar but all the team scouts and agents/advisors are there to watch 1 guy. It could be because he’s a dick but it could be for plenty other reasons as well.
June 5, 2008 at 11:23 am
#51@KRS1: Basically all I can go on is the scouting reports - which is basically what all of us are using for our wish lists. Who has the time to actually see these kids in person? We’re on Ducksnorts all day!
I agree, I’m fine with taking a kid who is cocky and knows he is good. But taken to the extreme that kid can be a cancer. Look at Kobe circa 2004 vs. Kobe circa 2008. In 2004 he destroyed that team. In 2008 he is making others around him better, yet he is still cocky and knows he is the best guy on the court.
June 5, 2008 at 11:25 am
#50@BigWorm: There sure seems to be a lot of push-back from some of those everyone’s in response to people asking for a greater diversity of draft picks (and signs).
I’m also interested in the BA (and other experts) question. I’ll just use BA as shorthand for a group of prospect experts. Many folks have written recently that criticism is unwarranted or off-base “because BA says we moved up several rankings.” But two years ago it was “BA isn’t giving us enough credit” or “they don’t know what they’re talking about.” And to this day BA’s frequent criticisms of teams that adhere to slot and largely stay out of the high school pool are largely brushed off by a certain group of fans.
June 5, 2008 at 11:25 am
#47@Tom Waits: (although people who blasted the Cubs for doing it might want to look at the standings both last year and this)
Did people really blast the Cubs for this? I think they caught some flak for Soriano, who may be overpaid considering his production (I’m certainly not able to do player valuations the way some do), but I think most of what they were criticized for were signings like DeRosa and Eyre. Maybe I just wasn’t paying close enough attention. Did they get blasted for Fukodome? I know Padres fans were disappointed we were outbid by them, but I’m not sure if people thought it was a bad signing, or even if he could be considered an “elite” free agent.
Also, when it comes down to it, I think their success this year has as much or more to do with guys like Theriot, Soto, Dempster and a few others having great years than it does free agent signings. I mean other than Fukodome, who has not been a difference maker thus far, imo, what elite free agents did they bring in to make the difference between last year and this?
June 5, 2008 at 11:26 am
#52@BigWorm:
Kobe is a bad comparisson but I know what you are getting at.
June 5, 2008 at 11:28 am
I’m in the crowd that says the Padres are doing “pretty good.” I don’t know if I’d say it was “fine.” That said, the Padres HAVE screwed up MOST of the drafts since 1998. However, since the Bush-debacle, I think they’ve done quite well; especially in ‘05 & ‘06 (the current front office). Likewise I’m excited about this draft.
I simply do not believe the “college reliever” rumors (although I could understand Perry b/c he supposedly could be a front-line starter).
June 5, 2008 at 11:29 am
#52@BigWorm: Did he destroy the team or were his teammates just not very good?
It’s funny, because a buddy of mine went to a team-building exercise this week, and the facilitator used Kobe as a negative example. My buddy interrupted the exercise to say “You know he’s in the NBA finals, right?”
Good for KC.
June 5, 2008 at 11:35 am
Matusz goes #4; go Torreros!
June 5, 2008 at 11:37 am
#58@Pat: Woo-hoo! That is so cool for him and the school.
June 5, 2008 at 11:37 am
#50@BigWorm: Screwed up drafts prior to the SA hiring have no bearing on my opinion that they are “doing just fine” since then. If I didn’t think they were “doing just fine”, then I’d not be supporting the team by buying tickets to games whenever I’m in town. I like the results on the field the past couple of years … both on the big club and in the farm system.
So, onto the questions …
1. How many “durable college starters” need to go down before you question the team’s approach? Two more? Four?
10 … and Carillo and Schmidt don’t count if they ever do pitch for the Padres, which I think is a 50/50 proposition at this point … well, perhaps it’s 50/50 for Carillo and 30/70 for Schmidt …
2. When Baseball America and other experts ranked the Padres system last, or next to last, the team and its defenders said that the rankings were unfair. Now that the team ranks higher, those are the first clubs out of the bag when the farm system is discussed. How is it possible for people to accept praise from certain experts but ignore criticism from the same sources?
When BA ranked the Padres last, I think they were being fair and realistic … and I think the organization acknowledged a problem and made a radical change in personel … and it’s a change that I really like. I’m a huge SA fan. I wish the team had an owner who projected more of a agressive-spending attitude (by actually aggressively spending on players), but that’s not what we have.
June 5, 2008 at 11:39 am
#54@Pat: Oh yes, last year when some of us suggested the Padres might have spent a bit more on free agents (there were some who suggested big-ticket names as well), one common response was “Do you want the Padres to end up like the Cubs?” That was before the Cubs took off and won the division, of course.
They have 2 starting OF with OPS+ over 116, and both required big free agent money. Ramirez and Lee were both big money guys, too.
They are getting contributions from unexpected sources, but those aren’t as valuable as the contributions they’re getting from guys they paid big-time money for over the last few years.
June 5, 2008 at 11:41 am
SF nabs Posey. I’d have thought they’d go Smoak.
#56@Peter Friberg: That 2005 draft, to my skeptical eye, looks like Headley and spare parts. But I don’t see much hope for Carrillo, less for Ramos and Geer, and I think Venable is a stretch in CF, which makes his bat hard to play.
June 5, 2008 at 11:46 am
#60@LynchMob: Carrillo and Schmidt don’t count? They’ll end up burning 2 years of minor league time not developing. They’re untradeable. That hardly seems like a good ROI. There’s nothing wrong with drafting college pitchers, as long as you mix in high schoolers and don’t buy high on an attribute (durability) that is often illusory.
BA (et al) are still highly critical of the slot-adhering / college-heavy approach. Implemented well or not, it limits your possibilities, especially your chance of drafting a superstar.
June 5, 2008 at 11:46 am
#57@Tom Waits: Well, he had Shaq just coming down from his prime, Karl Malone well past his prime but still putting up 13 and 8 every game, a not-quite-cooked Gary Payton playing point and solid backups at every position, not to mention one of the greatest coaches in NBA history. They were a virtual unanimous pick to beat the Pistons in 4 or 5 games in the finals. His teammates weren’t the issue (although Malone not playing in the Finals was a big reason for the loss).
After the season he ran off Shaq and the coach - so yes, he destroyed the team.
And it wasn’t until he learned to play within the team concept this year that the Lakers thrived. He grew up, it happens. But read Jackson’s book about the ‘04 season. . .Kobe absolutely destroyed that team.
June 5, 2008 at 11:53 am
#62@Tom Waits: Why don’t you hold out much hope for Carillo? The injury is scary, but I don’t think his ability to pitch well will be gone. He is the one that I still think can turn out pretty well.
June 5, 2008 at 11:57 am
#64@BigWorm: It’s hard for me to see a team that went to the Finals as being destroyed, or Kobe “learning” something he apparently knew well enough from 1999 to 2002. We might want to give a little credit to the Pistons, too. It’s not like they weren’t a very good team that got hot.
I’d probably read that book wondering how a great coach like Jackson managed to lose control of his team, rather than accepting that Bryant destroyed it (and that Jackson would then come back).
June 5, 2008 at 12:01 pm
So, any “surprises” thus far this year?
June 5, 2008 at 12:02 pm
#65@Coronado Mike:
At a meta-level, I’m skeptical of all young pitchers.
At a high level, having TJ surgery before you hit the major leagues is a red flag.
I loved the Carrillo pick. But he’s only pitched maybe 100 healthy professional innings; he spent most of 06-06 hurt. It’s hard to develop your skills when you’re not playing.
June 5, 2008 at 12:05 pm
#67@Phantom: Did Posey to SF surprise anyone else?
June 5, 2008 at 12:05 pm
#67@Phantom: Quoting ESPN…
Alonso is the first surprise of the draft. It’s a surprise because they weren’t linked to him and he’s asking for $8 million and a major league deal. He’s a left-handed power hitter with a very patient approach, and he should hit for quite a bit of power at Great American Ballpark. What does this mean for Joey Votto?
June 5, 2008 at 12:06 pm
There goes Castro.
June 5, 2008 at 12:08 pm
#69@Tom Waits: I was kind of surprised by that since he reportedly wanted so much money.
And what’s with the Astros popping Castro this early? Seems odd.
June 5, 2008 at 12:08 pm
At least we’re not the Astros, taking Jason Castro instead of Justin Smoak.
June 5, 2008 at 12:09 pm
#66@Tom Waits: Well, I guess that depends on your expectations. If that season had you predicting that the Lakers would lose in the Finals and then end up in NBA oblivion for three years. . .then hey, expectations met!
Are you trying to say that Kobe was an unselfish player from 1999 through 2002? What part of his game / attitude gave you that one? Or was it more like they Lakers won those years so Kobe clearly was doing something right? More likely: The Lakers won those years because Shaq was UNSTOPPABLE.
Of course, blame it on the coach! I don’t know, I’m usually inclined to give a guy with nine rings the benefit of the doubt. I think he knows what he’s doing.
June 5, 2008 at 12:11 pm
No HS pitchers yet, no Smoak yet.
Wouldn’t surprise me to see Smoak go to Texas.
June 5, 2008 at 12:13 pm
I don’t think you can dismiss Carrillo or Schmidt…
Heck, I was just told Carrillo’s back up to 92… And other than the fact that he was a college he’s the quintisential high-risk, high-reward player. He was LIGHTS OUT in college but teams were scared off because of his build. We popped him and sure enough that “risk” bit us. Now, he’s almost back to being able to pitch against live batters. He’s going to be awesome.
As for Schmidt, there’s no way any of us can make any comments other than what was said about him in the draft. He was talked about as high as 10/11 or as low as us last year… Experts said he might be a “3″ or a 4/5… So what is he? WE DON’T KNOW. But neither can we dismiss him.
As for the BA question (we can’t dismiss their ranking one year then cheer about the next): You’re right! 100% right. And in fact, when BA rated us 27 or 28 or 29 (whatever it was), I said they were a lot better than (I said we should be in the low 20’s - maybe as high as 19). Then I said they should be low-mid teens. BA’s ranking came out AFTER I said that. So (as for me) I wasn’t being hypocritical, they were agreeing with me.
June 5, 2008 at 12:13 pm
The Astros taking Castro at 10 is a shocker as well. I don’t think anyone had him above Smoak but I guess if you have Berkman and Smoak can’t play the OF, why take him?
June 5, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Nice call TW
June 5, 2008 at 12:14 pm
I’m a little bit bummed to see the Giants take Posey. I was hoping that they would take one of the alte-first round guys that had been mentioned.
73: Amen…glad that I’m not an Astro’s fan right now, although I think that all of us can empathize with what they’re feeling right now…
June 5, 2008 at 12:16 pm
#77@Schlom: Because you shouldn’t draft based on your need, rather the best talent available?
June 5, 2008 at 12:17 pm
There goes Weeks. Bummer.
June 5, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Weeks goes to the A’s at 12…bummer. I had dreamed of him slipping.
June 5, 2008 at 12:17 pm
So much for Weeks…
June 5, 2008 at 12:17 pm
With Weeks and Castro down, who is ideal for us right now? What are the 3 we should go after?
June 5, 2008 at 12:20 pm
#74@BigWorm: I don’t “blame” the coach solely, but isn’t controlling his players part of his job? Why would anyone accept what an interested party says without skepticism?
No, I’m not trying to say Kobe was an unselfish player. I’m saying that he was the same cocky SOB from 99-02 that he was in 04-06. Before this season he was demanding a trade (depending on which personality was speaking at the time). He grew up awfully fast, if that was what made the difference.
Shaq was a tremendous force, no question. But he was getting anywhere from 1500 - 2000 points of “support” from Bryant, which in 01-02 was more than the Big Fella.
June 5, 2008 at 12:24 pm
OMG, just saw clips of Wallace. Badonkadonk. That’s not a third baseman.
June 5, 2008 at 12:24 pm
I hope Christian Friedrich doesn’t fall to us. He seems like Nick Schmidt 2.0.*
*As with all my draft based opinions, take this with a huge grain of salt, since I don’t actually know anything.
C’mon other teams. Start drafting Friedrich and college relievers!
June 5, 2008 at 12:25 pm
I think w/ Wallace going @ 15 that means Ike could go 17 to Toronto…
June 5, 2008 at 12:26 pm
#80@Phantom: True but you can at least understand it with players that can only play 1B. If they took Smoak, best case scenario is that you have to trade either him or Berkman, and with Berkman’s age and salary your not going to get an equal return. So best case is that you trade Smoak. Why draft someone if you have to trade him?
June 5, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Saberscouting mentions that Havens might be converted to catcher if the Padres draft him. If we take him as a catcher, I’m excited about him.
http://www.saberscouting.com/2...../#more-229
June 5, 2008 at 12:26 pm
#86@Geoff Young: That’s what they were saying on XM. The Cards don’t have a DH or space available at 1B, so they were miffed.
But again, typically, don’t you draft the best talent? Or does it not make sense to draft a 1B if you’re a team like the Padres?
June 5, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Wallace has insane legs and as GY so elequintly put “badonkadonk”! hahaha
June 5, 2008 at 12:27 pm
#76@Peter Friberg: Carrillo a classic high-risk, high-reward pick? Huh? Many baseball teams have an unreasonable fear of short RHP, but there’s no evidence to support it. He was nowhere near as risky as many players, but the high reward was definitely there.
I’m not writing either pitcher off, but I’m very skeptical. Guys have follow-on injuries after TJ all the time. Some folks act like it’s a hangnail, but its far from automatic.
Even if both make full recoveries, CC in particular will need to get some seasoning. Schmidt has enough minor league time remaining that it’s not such a big deal with him; the scar on his pitching elbow is still a sizable concern.
I thought Wallace might fall further.
June 5, 2008 at 12:29 pm
At least the Dodgers don’t get Hicks.
June 5, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Ben B. keep those thoughts to yourself…
I’d LOVE Friedrich
6-0 1.93 ERA, 32 H, 24/85 BB/SO ratio, 1 HR allowed
June 5, 2008 at 12:30 pm
65.2 IP
June 5, 2008 at 12:30 pm
#85@Tom Waits: I think the point of the book is that Kobe was uncontrollable. Nothing Jackson would have said or done was going to keep Kobe from pushing out all other potential rivals until he was the alpha male. If that meant he didn’t win a title in 2004, then that was acceptable to him.
Personally, I think Kobe spent three years trying to do it himself and realized he wasn’t getting very far. When the Gasol trade happened, he was given that other piece he needed. He had already been playing more unselfishly this year, the addition of a top center just gave them the extra bump they needed.
Back to the draft - if there are no HS pitchers selected before us, does that mean that we can look forward to a HS pitcher given the FO’s comments the other day?
June 5, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Twins pick Hicks. Poop.
#91@Phantom: You can always trade the guy. But like the Brewers with LaPorta, if the bat is big enough, you’ll find a spot for him. Or you’ll live with him at 3b. Glaus is only around through 09, if then.
#90@Paul R: I’d still be excited about him at short. He seems to have some KG in him; worked his butt off to stay at short, but will hopefully have better control of the strike zone. Unrelated, but I’d hate to lose KG just because I like reading his quotes. Nice to see a cerebral ballplayer.
June 5, 2008 at 12:33 pm
#95@Peter Friberg: The situations are so eerily similar. College LHP projected in the low teens going into the draft, lack of overpowering stuff, lack of good command.
June 5, 2008 at 12:35 pm
I think a lot of you who don’t like Schmidt will be pleasantly surprised.
June 5, 2008 at 12:37 pm
LHP’s who through 90+ (Schmidt) don’t grow on trees. Furthermore he was the Friday starter (team Ace) as a freshman. What’s not to like (other than the current injury)?
June 5, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Anybody still available that people expected to be gone by now?
June 5, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Dodgers take Martin. Double-poop. Logan doesn’t miss many.
#97@BigWorm: I think all that’s “possible,” but “teamwork” and “chemistry” tend to be BS dumps. Something happens that doesn’t make sense or reflects poorly on a popular peson or involves an unpopular person? Pin it on the personalities rather than a weak-willed front office or the fact that success in many endeavors is cyclical.
Martin’s the first HS pitcher taken, even though they called him out as a 3b. I guess we’ll see.
I wonder if Hicks is wondering where the other players are? I hope he got a free plane ticket.
June 5, 2008 at 12:39 pm
#97@BigWorm: Hey, this is baseball talk, not talk about the crappy NBA!
June 5, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Lawrie as a “C”? He’s a SS right now…
June 5, 2008 at 12:42 pm
#104@Schlom: Well said, Schlom.
#103@Tom Waits: Spoken like a true stat-head. There’s no room for personalities, huh? Only numbers. If you’ve ever worked / played in a disfunctional team environment you would know better.
June 5, 2008 at 12:42 pm
97: Actually, there have been a couple of high school arms chosen: Martin and Hicks are both more highly thought of as pitchers than as postion players. I’m hoping that Melville is a guy that falls to the Padres and that he’s one of the two that KT was referring to.
June 5, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Where are folks “watching” the draft?
The best/simplest web site I’ve found is …
http://www.baseballamerica.com......php?rnd=1
All I see at mlb.com is pretty graphics intense … I don’t need/want that overhead …
June 5, 2008 at 12:43 pm
#86@Geoff Young: I had the same thought…
June 5, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Lot of pitchers still left on the board, might just have to take one since we’ll have a pick of some of the best left including Fields/Hunt/etc
June 5, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Cooper is gone.
June 5, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Sweet. Cooper is a reach.
June 5, 2008 at 12:45 pm
#103@Tom Waits: Please don’t take this the wrong way, but there is plenty that the numbers don’t show. Personalities and the resulting dysfuncion are a lot bigger issue that many people understand…
June 5, 2008 at 12:46 pm
There are a lot of cool players still available…
Pitchers still available (in order BA has them listed http://www.baseballamerica.com.....66128.html):
Shooter Hunt
Christian Friedrich
Tim Melville
Gerrit Cole
Hitters:
Casey Kelly
Zach Collier
Conor Gillespie
Reese Havens
Ike Davis
My pecking order:
Friedrich/Melville
Cole
Collier
Davis
June 5, 2008 at 12:46 pm
#101@Peter Friberg: And he wasn’t striking out many college hitters as a junior. I’m highly skeptical that he was throwing 90; that often seems to be a marker for “high 80s.” There were some reports that LeBlanc threw 90 as well. Maybe on a smaller planet with reduced gravity and a thinner atmosphere.
The Schmidt pick wasn’t a sore spot with me; it would have been nice if the Padres could have seen what other scouts saw in his delivery, which was “ARM TROUBLE PENDING.”
June 5, 2008 at 12:47 pm
The Blue Jays with the a total shocker. BA had him going 30th, BP didn’t have in the first round.
June 5, 2008 at 12:49 pm
And there goes Davis.
June 5, 2008 at 12:49 pm
There goes Davis. What’s left on our DS board?
June 5, 2008 at 12:50 pm
#114@Tom Waits: What I didn’t like about Schmidt’s is that his numbers got significantly worse his junior year. Of course he was pitching against better competition but he wasn’t as good as his numbers showed his final year because he ran them up against inferior competition.
June 5, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Schmidt:
Fresh: 89 SO in 99 IP
Soph: 145 in 116 IP
Jr: 111 in 124 IP
Yes, strieouts don’t tell you EVERYTHING, but they tell us more than ERA or Wins. I look at K/rates (K/9, BB/K) and H/IP… Schmidt sits at 88-90 and can touch 92. Johan Santana? No, but that’s better than average velocity.
June 5, 2008 at 12:52 pm
ESPN is slow as frakking molasses today, I have a hard time getting any new picks!
Basically what’s left besides Hewitt, Collier and a ton of pitchers (Hunt, Fields, Cashner, Friedman)???
June 5, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Tim Melville and Gerrit Cole are still out there along with all those college relievers. No real impact college bats.
June 5, 2008 at 12:52 pm
#118@Phantom: Melville, Cole, Kelly, Collier, maybe Havens?
June 5, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Davis is gone. That’s it. We’re doomed. It’s going to be a reliever. I have lost hope.
June 5, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Partial repost from 114:
My up-to-date pecking order:
Friedrich/Melville
Cole
Collier
June 5, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Cubs take Cashner. Awesome!
June 5, 2008 at 12:55 pm
16 batters (5 high school) and 3 pitchers (1 HS) taken through the first 19 picks.
June 5, 2008 at 12:55 pm
#106@BigWorm: How is “weak-willed front office” a numerical concept? The Lakers front office caved to Bryant rather than fixing the problem. That’s not a statistical understanding, it’s an understanding that whatever kind of teammate / person Bryant was, it wasn’t necessarily fatal to the team’s chances. It hadn’t been fatal to them before, and it wasn’t fatal to them in 04 when they got whipped by a better team in the Finals, and it wasn’t fatal to them this year.
#113@Coronado Mike: .
There’s room in any philosophy for understanding personality/teamwork. But it’s often used to cover a multitude of underlying causes. Winning teams have chemistry. The same personnel lose the next season. What happened to the chemistry? Why did that tremendously close 96 Padre team lose to the Cardinals?
June 5, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Yes!
June 5, 2008 at 12:56 pm
#114@Peter Friberg:
Love the names that are still out there. It looks like we are definitely going to have a chance at an awesome player. Let’s hope we take advantage of it.
YES!!! Someone that wasn’t the Padres took Cashner!
June 5, 2008 at 12:56 pm
#127@Schlom: Part of that was the relative lack of arms in this draft…
June 5, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Collier, Hewitt, Hunt, Fields are all on the board!
June 5, 2008 at 12:57 pm
My up-to-date pecking order:
Friedrich/Melville
Cole
Collier
Hewitt
June 5, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Friedrich and Melville are pitchers, right?
What are Cole and Collier?
June 5, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Gerrit Cole, HS pitcher
Zach Collier, HS outfielder
June 5, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Looks like our guys are still up there. We could potentially get a really good talent here.
June 5, 2008 at 1:01 pm
with Cole, I have to admit, I haven’t looked at him much… I never thought we’d have a chance at him…
June 5, 2008 at 1:01 pm
#113@Coronado Mike: To follow on a bit….it’s hard enough to make productive decisions when you DO have a metric. Jimmy Edmonds comes to mind. How much harder is it to get value from a concept as nebulous as “personality?”
#124@Ben B.: I assume that’s an anti-jinx.
June 5, 2008 at 1:01 pm
#128@Tom Waits: I think it is more to the negative than the positive…good chemistry helps some, but bad can kill you. As someone who has played on a team (Volleyball) that had 3 future professional players, but have a losing record, I can write a small novel on how bad relationships can kill great talent.
June 5, 2008 at 1:02 pm
#135@Peter Friberg: Thank you, sir!
So, we could grab a HS pitcher, eh? That would be a new strategy.
June 5, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Yes! Another reliever down!
June 5, 2008 at 1:02 pm
another guy (Fields) I have next to zero interest in…
June 5, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Detroit to take Melville…?
June 5, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Never considered Cole but yeah he does strike me as a better choice BUT what about him having Scott Boras as his agent?
June 5, 2008 at 1:04 pm
#138@Tom Waits: Shhh. You’re ruining its effectiveness.
June 5, 2008 at 1:04 pm
XM saying the Tigers could take Cole.
June 5, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Boras has not attached his “special” label on him. So while it might take more than slot, it should not be outrageous…
June 5, 2008 at 1:04 pm
I’d say Cole or Kelly if they drop to us…I’d lean to Kelly.
June 5, 2008 at 1:05 pm
XM says Tigers might take Cole.
June 5, 2008 at 1:05 pm
#139@Coronado Mike: I see it more in “true” team sports, where individual movements have to be synched. In baseball it’s very rare for a player to be able to do anything that is simultaneously positive for him but negative for the team.
June 5, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Melville or Cole would make sense…
June 5, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Cole is still on the board! Any chance the Mets snag him?
June 5, 2008 at 1:06 pm
That’s a lot of “safe” picks in a row. C’mon, guys; hit a home run.
June 5, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Ryan Perry down now too! Now we just need the Mets to take Schlereth and we could be clear.
June 5, 2008 at 1:07 pm
DAMNIT!!!! FIRE DRILL IN MY BUILDING!!!
Son of a#*$&^*
Draft well guys, I’ll be back soon.
June 5, 2008 at 1:07 pm
#128@Tom Waits:
“How is “weak-willed front office” a numerical concept?”
I didn’t say it was. I’m not sure how you interpreted that from my post.
Oh, the relievers are going like hot cakes! Crossing fingers. . .
June 5, 2008 at 1:07 pm
#61@Tom Waits: OK, I follow. Thanks.
June 5, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Wow. I really, really, really don’t see how Schlereth could be considered the best available player now, which makes me hopeful.
That’s not to say Schlereth could end up being a better major league player than anyone in the draft.
June 5, 2008 at 1:10 pm
I like Schlereth… If we get him at 46 or 69 (not at the expense of my beloved Ladendorf - serious mancrush). If we take him at 23 I’ll be pissed!
June 5, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Pads on the clock…wooohooo…feels like Christmas.
June 5, 2008 at 1:10 pm
I smell Friedrich, much the same way I smelled Schmidt last year. It’s not a good smell imo.
New wishlist: Kelly, Melville, Hunt, Collier, Havens
June 5, 2008 at 1:11 pm
All the high school players are out there for the Padres….
June 5, 2008 at 1:11 pm
#156@BigWorm: That was my explanation of what happened, and you replied with “Spoken like a true stat-head” and told me that I’d understand if I’d ever worked in a dysfunctional team environment. How is attributing the problem to a weak-willed front office NOT an understanding of the Lakers as dysfunctional?
#155@Phantom: Dude. That sucks.
June 5, 2008 at 1:12 pm
I bet it’s Friedrich. Not as sexy as Hunt or a high schooler, but after dreading a reliever I would be ok with that pick. I didn’t realize he had such better K numbers than Schmidt.
June 5, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Cole, Collier, Hunt, Fields
GIVE US SOMETHING GOOD!
June 5, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Baseball Prospectus thinks the Padres could take Hewitt.
June 5, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Dang. I really liked Havens, and I’m very nervous for the next 3 minutes.
June 5, 2008 at 1:14 pm
#163@Tom Waits:
“I think all that’s “possible,” but “teamwork” and “chemistry” tend to be BS dumps.”
You also said this. That is what I was referring to.
June 5, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Seriously, my heart should not be beating this fast.
June 5, 2008 at 1:16 pm
#161@Bruce: lol, seriously.
June 5, 2008 at 1:16 pm
I wish Randy Jones would retire to Florida and leave his hot dogs in San Diego
June 5, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Dykstra. Unbelievable. Serious reach.
June 5, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Dykstra? Here? WTF? They do this to me every time!
June 5, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Dykstra? Man, that stinks. Supp pick, maybe.
June 5, 2008 at 1:18 pm
FRRRAKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THIS SUCKS!!!!
June 5, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Hope Alan Dykstra can hit for power…ESPN speculates he starts at 3rd, but moves to first…
“some of the biggest power in the draft”…dives a little too much into the plate and can have problems with the inside pitch…but fixable.
He is patient and gets on base…
June 5, 2008 at 1:20 pm
local guy from Rancho Bernardo High School
June 5, 2008 at 1:20 pm
I actually like Dykstra… I just liked all those other guys more.
June 5, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Listening to XX 1090 - they’re not happy with this pick and wonder why we need a 1B? I wonder the same thing unless these guys think this schmuck can play RF and he’ll show great improvement when he ‘heals’
June 5, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Wow, I knew I smelled something stinky, but never in my wildest imagination did I expect them to reach like this. There goes my interest in this draft. They absolutely killed it with that pick. I would have preferred Schlereth. *SIGH* The season is terrible and they go and do this.
June 5, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Meh. Big-time power, but best available player? I reserve the right to amend that meh later.
#168@BigWorm: Yes, I did, I stand by it, and I recommend that you not overlook the words “possible” and “tend.”
June 5, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Well, I guess that’s the replacement 1B when they let A-Gon walk after his contract runs out.
June 5, 2008 at 1:25 pm
#178@Peter Friberg: Yeah, he’s not a bad player on his own, and I don’t care that we have Agon and Blanks. If Dykstra has 40 HR power, he’ll be valuable. But what the heck did their draft board look like if he was at the top?
June 5, 2008 at 1:27 pm
If TW isn’t excited, then I ain’t either. MEH (and I watched all of 2 minutes of college ball this season).
June 5, 2008 at 1:27 pm
#181@Tom Waits: I wasn’t overlooking anything. Just saying that statement was spoken like a true stat-head.
So angry. . .Hulk smash! Seriously, can they screw up this season any more? We should trade Giles and Greene for some magic beans just to make the season complete.
June 5, 2008 at 1:27 pm
“As I wrote the other day, this isn’t a need-based pick. Allan is a San Diego native from Rancho Bernardo HS who has been an All-American at Wake Forest. He’s 6′5″, almost 250 lbs and has monster power. Most importantly, he has skills to go along with that raw power.
Allan has had an unbelievably consistent collegiate career, as he’s hit at least 15 homers while also drawing at least 50 walks in each of his three seasons - something nobody else in this draft has done. Allan also produced in the Cape Cod League batting over .300 with walks and power, so he has also proven his skills with a wood bat. In short, his track record is impeccable.
Given his size, power, and patience, comparisions have been drawn to Jim Thome.”
June 5, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Jeebus. Dykstra may be a reach, but some of you are acting like the Padres just took a retarded amputee from the California School for the Deaf when 12 bona-fide number one aces were available. Grady must think dude is the best hitter out there, and a better bet than the pitchers. I’ll trust him until proven otherwise.
June 5, 2008 at 1:28 pm
I read an article last night about Scott Boras, I’m can’t find it now - on a different computer - where he labeled 5 players with his “special” tag. Posey, Hosmer, 2 other guys near the top, and about Dykstra he said he had unbelievable power… Here’s the other thing. About those players Boras has labeled, “special” not one of them have missed, according to Boras - the article said 1 wasn’t doing well but was in the low-minors and another was injured but the vast majority of Boras’ “special” players were in fact special…
June 5, 2008 at 1:28 pm
#183
I will say it then; he’s a bad player
1. He’s very poor defensively, even at 1B
2. He can’t play 3B
3. His power is pull-only
4. He hooks the ball
He might be acceptable as a supplemental round pick or maybe a 2nd rounder, but as a first with: Hewitt, Collier, Cole, Hunt and others all on the board, he’s even more pathetic of a pick.
The Padres draft nearly as bad as Bobby Beathard does
June 5, 2008 at 1:29 pm
#185@BigWorm: What do you know about Dysktra that makes you say this?
June 5, 2008 at 1:29 pm
TW (180): I don’t know…
June 5, 2008 at 1:30 pm
#183@Tom Waits: Seems like a truly bizarre pick. They’d better make up for it with their supp picks. I’m pretty stunned that they’d pass over pitching, but do the Padres maybe feel that they’re set in the low minors for pitching? If so, I’d like to see their rationale.
June 5, 2008 at 1:31 pm
#187
No he’s not a retarded kid BUT you picked him, ranked #61 overall as opposed to:
1. A possible front line starter (Cole)
2. An athletic freak (Hewitt)
3. A 5 tool outfielder (Collier)
4. A middle starter with upside (Hunt)
That’s pathetic
June 5, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Dykstra and Matt Antonelli played together at Wake Forest in 2006.
June 5, 2008 at 1:33 pm
#190@Ben B.: I know that he would most likely have been available with our next pick. That alone makes him a reach.
I also know that he is limited to 1b which restricts his value.
The kid could end up being a stud, but we probably could have had him in the supp. round.
June 5, 2008 at 1:33 pm
To all of us that are disappointed, keep in mind that this is how we would have reacted to drafting LaPorta at 7 like the Brewers did last year. These picks can and do work out, and all Dykstra has to do is hit to make it worthwhile.
June 5, 2008 at 1:34 pm
#183@Tom Waits: #187@Nick: #189@Loren:
I recognize his skills. I get it, he’s powerful. But as others have said, he would have been a fine supplemental pick. At #23, I just don’t see it. He’s a poor fielder. Perhaps he’s AGon’s replacement, perhaps he will being trade bait for some AL team, but I do not believe he was the best player available. So back to TW’s comment, what did their draft board look like?
June 5, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Dykstra:
Fresh: .324/.479/.670 15 HR, 51/32 BB/SO ratio
Soph: .310/.479/.615 18 HR, 57/33 BB/SO ratio
Jr.: .323/.519/.645 16 HR, 45/62 BB/SO ratio
June 5, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Cole is falling. . .Yankees probably take him.
June 5, 2008 at 1:36 pm
This is the article Peter Friberg was talking about: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
Is this a good thing?
June 5, 2008 at 1:37 pm
GY, I had a post eaten. It’s the SI article about Dykstra.
And the D-Backs taking Schlereth, XM is labeling this a shocker.
June 5, 2008 at 1:37 pm
I’m guessing Melville & Cole have tremendous pricetags…
June 5, 2008 at 1:39 pm
#202@Peter Friberg: They must, since they’re still available.
June 5, 2008 at 1:39 pm
#186@Richard Wade: He also might have been there at 42. Maybe the more talented players will be, too, but if they ranked him as the best player available, they’re using a different scale than everybody else.
June 5, 2008 at 1:42 pm
So is it a good thing that DePo thinks this is a wise pick? Is this just FO spin?
June 5, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Quoting the SI article:
But Boras agrees that while it’s true that many mid- to lower-tier first round talents may be flawed (generally keeping their bonuses to low seven-figure totals), he says that the identifiably special players almost always make it. “It’s good business to pay the right players,” Boras says. “The $4 million players have all turned out to be excellent players. The history is rather extraordinary.
June 5, 2008 at 1:42 pm
#204@Tom Waits: Not making an argument. Just posting what DePodesta said for those not following his blog.
June 5, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Is this Lenny Dykstras son they drafted ?
If so, I have a story on him from the NYT but my post keeps getting eaten.
June 5, 2008 at 1:43 pm
#204@Tom Waits:
That sounds familiar.
June 5, 2008 at 1:43 pm
And there goes Cole to the Yankees.
June 5, 2008 at 1:45 pm
NY will meet Cole’s pricetag
June 5, 2008 at 1:45 pm
According to XM, Cole is this year’s Rick Porcello. Allegedly there are HUGE signability issues with him. He’s got a committment to UCLA.
So, given this, was it a wise move for the Padres to avoid him?
June 5, 2008 at 1:45 pm
#196@Ben B.: No, LaPorta had even more power, less mechanical questions, and more athleticism. Dykstra…..there are just enough questions about key parts of the game, plus the fact that he was probably going to last.
June 5, 2008 at 1:48 pm
#208@parlo: Nope, different guy.
June 5, 2008 at 1:48 pm
No offense but if the only reason we can state that picking Dykstra was a good move was the validation OF HIS AGENT, and a SCHMUCK of an agent at that who is notorious for getting huge amounts of money for his clients, then that’s really sad. He’s of course going to say things like this because he wants to get paid more money.
I’m glad to see my second favorite team got the front line starter in Cole at least
June 5, 2008 at 1:49 pm
#208@parlo: According to XM, no
June 5, 2008 at 1:49 pm
#212@Phantom:
If he didn’t sign then we have 2 first rounders next season. At least it means they would have tried. I like Dykstra but I liked him at 42 or 46. 23 with the players they were still there just hurts! Here is to hoping Collier slips (snow ball’s chance in hell) to 42.
June 5, 2008 at 1:51 pm
HUGE amounts of money for his clients that are good.
June 5, 2008 at 1:51 pm
#215@Loren: As much of a schmuck as Boars is, he’s got a pretty good track record. It’s in his interest to not hurt his brand, and to this point, his brand is pretty damn good players.
June 5, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Just curious: has anyone ever done an analysis of all these mock drafts and compared them to how the actual drafts pan out? I’m just wondering how meaningful it is to say Dykstra was a supplemental round guy when for all we know the consensus in the scouting community had him much higher.
Personally, I’m just glad to see them take a power hitter. I’m tired of hearing about our first round picks blowing out their arms or having no power. It’s more fun to follow a guy in the minors if he’s blasting them out of the park than it is to hear he’s throwing off a mound for the first time in a year. If it’s true that he has pull power that should play well at Petco, no?
June 5, 2008 at 1:51 pm
#205@Phantom: What the heck is he going to say? “We once again decided to pick a defensively limited college player who has voiced his desire to start his professional career and can therefore be expected to sign for slot money, despite his advisor?”
#208@parlo: No, that’s Cutter Dykstra.
#212@Phantom: Cole has enough question marks that you can’t really fault them for it. He’s not in Porcello’s class, IMO, talent-wise. But there were a lot of talented kids left, and nobody was all that hot on Dykstra. Hopefully those talented kids are still around at 42 so it won’t matter.
June 5, 2008 at 1:53 pm
#217@KRS1: But wouldn’t the fan base be even more pissed if you don’t get anything in the first round of the draft?
I mean, what’s worse here? Drafting someone maybe 20 picks too early, or drafting a guy we’d never sign and getting nothing for that spot?
June 5, 2008 at 1:55 pm
I admit that I know next to nothing about these kids, by the way.
June 5, 2008 at 1:56 pm
#220@Anthony: A couple years running, BA’s mock draft was close to perfect. It may be that teams stopped giving up so much information, because they felt it hurt their chances. They missed at 4 and 5
If the consensus on Dykstra was much higher, he’d have gone before 23, no? The Red Sox liked him three years ago, but it’s hard to see them liking him more than Casey Kelly.
June 5, 2008 at 1:56 pm
#220@Anthony: A couple years running, BA’s mock draft was close to perfect. It may be that teams stopped giving up so much information, because they felt it hurt their chances.
If the consensus on Dykstra was much higher, he’d have gone before 23, no? The Red Sox liked him three years ago, but it’s hard to see them liking him more than Casey Kelly.
June 5, 2008 at 1:56 pm
219@Phantom
Maybe so but let’s not forget he’s not an independent evaluator of talent, he’s an agent who’s goal is to push his players to be drafted at the highest level so he can get the most money. He’s had some success in picking players, granted, but I’d also like to know how many players he picked that crapped out. Seems lije the focus is just on his few successes
June 5, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Thanks guys! I wasnt sure if Cutter was just a nickname, and Alan was his real name.
June 5, 2008 at 1:58 pm
#223@Phantom: That would describe most of us here, I’d imagine.
June 5, 2008 at 1:59 pm
#213@Tom Waits: I wasn’t comparing LaPorta to Dykstra, just the reactions of people here.
Also, why do people here think they have a better handle on how the draft is going to go than the front office? If the front office thought he was going to be available when they pick next, they wouldn’t have taken him with this pick.
June 5, 2008 at 2:00 pm
#222@Phantom:
I don’t think so but I could be wrong.
I mean the argument is really simple from the Padres end.
Something like… “We took the most talented player he wanted well over the amount that MLB advises us to pay and he chose to go to college it was his decision not ours. On the bright side we have 2 1st round picks next year”
I honestly think the fan base would be happier with the team drafting a more talented player that may or may not sign (and getting the same pick next year if he doesn’t) than taking and paying too much for a guy they probably could have had later. At least it would appear that they are commited to attaining the best talent available when given the opportunity.
June 5, 2008 at 2:00 pm
#224@Tom Waits: Thanks. I probably have a little (emhpasize little) more faith than most here that the Fuson and team know what they’re doing.
I also know next to nothing about these guys but like I said, I’m just glad it’s not a pitcher. Seems safer to me and from what little I’ve seen this guy has legit power, something we could definitely use.
June 5, 2008 at 2:00 pm
#226@Loren: If teams didn’t think his players were good, they wouldn’t get drafted. Teams have dozens of scouts and analysts looking at these kids, they’re not being dazzled by a Boras PowerPoint presentation.
The teams aren’t independent evaluators of talent, either. Their goal is to get the best player they can as cheaply as they can. And those teams, with more resources than Boras, crap out on plenty of picks and decisions.
June 5, 2008 at 2:04 pm
#229@Ben B.: Because as we all know the Padres have one of the dumbest front offices in baseball.
June 5, 2008 at 2:05 pm
#232@Tom Waits
Granted but it seems that one of hte only sources that fans of this decision turn to is that Boras says he’ll be good. And I trust the teams to be independent more then the player’s agent ya know? Basically there’s little to suggest this was a good pick and I’m cranky bout it
June 5, 2008 at 2:06 pm
The reason I’m not a huge fan of the Dykstra pick is that he has zero value other then his bat. And since his one tool doesn’t directly translate into major league baseball, because of aluminum bats, the size of the ballparks and the competition, he’s certainly no automatic pick. Add in the fact that he hasn’t really improved since his freshman year (he seems to have traded power for patience this past season) he certainly looks like a reach.
However, he was a much better hitter then Antonelli in college so it’s not a total lost cause.
June 5, 2008 at 2:10 pm
#235@Schlom: Apparently he’s put up good numbers in the Cape Cod league, which uses wood bats. So I’m not sure how the aluminum bats part of your argument flies.
And as other said, the Padres wouldn’t have drafted him with this pick if they didn’t feel they needed to. We’re just going to have to wait and see what happens with him.
June 5, 2008 at 2:11 pm
#233@Richard Wade: That’s the most important point in all of this. The reason we are criticizing this pick is because the Padres have continually shown that they aren’t very good at evaluating amateur talent. If the Red Sox, D-backs or Dodgers would have made the same pick, people would have a little more faith in him since those teams have proven they can ID good players.
Baseball America wasn’t too high on the pick, they had Dykstra rated 38th overall. This is from John Manuel: Dykstra has all kinds of power and patience, but unless the Padres think he can play third base, this is a bit of a reach at 23, plus they have Adrian Gonzalez, by far their best hitter, at first base. Dykstra has offensive ability to be a first-round pick, but the position, the Padres’ situation . . . makes this a tough fit for me.
June 5, 2008 at 2:12 pm
#229@Ben B.: And as I replied, I don’t think the reaction would have been nearly as vocal if that had happened. I’d have still rather had a pitcher, but LaPorta’s offensive game was more complete.
As for the front office having a good handle on what else might happen….that doesn’t follow at all. If they’d identified Dykstra as meeting their key values (one of which is signability), they’d pick him at 23.
June 5, 2008 at 2:15 pm
#236@Phantom: I don’t like the idea of evaluating someone off of the 100 or so AB’s they get in the Cape Cod league.
Again, it’s certainly possible that he turns out to be a good player. But since nobody else thought he was a high pick and the Padres aren’t very good at identifying talent, it seems like a reach.
June 5, 2008 at 2:15 pm
#237@Schlom: I was, of course, being sarcastic.
June 5, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Wow, the Twins grab Hunt at 31.
#233@Richard Wade: Who’s saying dumb? I’m saying that the Padres didn’t necessarily have any concern about if Dykstra would be around at 42, and that saying they calculated it doesn’t hold water. It seems more likely that the intersection of ability, cost, and predictability landed on Dykstra, and that the other players (those more highly regarded) weren’t a consideration. So it’s not that they were worried that Dykstra wouldn’t be around, it’s that they wanted him.
I wish all the picks went as fast as the supplemental.
June 5, 2008 at 2:17 pm
#237@Schlom: But again, you don’t draft for need. You draft for talent. People say this kid is a monster hitter. Even if he can’t play 1B for us because it’s blocked, maybe he’ll be a chip to get a good young CF or pitcher in the next few years.
June 5, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Dude… The Phillies got Hewitt and Collier!
LUCKY!!!
June 5, 2008 at 2:17 pm
#240@Richard Wade: They do have one of the dumbest front offices when it comes to the amateur draft — that’s not sarcasm. Towers is good at a lot of things, by the draft isn’t one of them.
June 5, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Poop. There goes Collier.
June 5, 2008 at 2:19 pm
#241@Tom Waits: Schlom seems to be pretty happy with calling them dumb.
June 5, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Damn, a shame they couldn’t get Collier. Who else should we shoot for?
June 5, 2008 at 2:21 pm
#238@Tom Waits: Not if they thought he would have been available when they next picked. They would have chosen someone else they liked that they thought would be picked before their next selection. There is some tradeoff between how much they like him and the probability he gets picked.
June 5, 2008 at 2:21 pm
#242@Phantom: Yeah, he can be turned into something for sure. Of course that’s also true of the other kids.
#243@KRS1: Not luck. Well, lucky for their fans, I guess.
#244@Schlom: Can not agree with that. Not the best, laboring under restrictions, but not dumb.
June 5, 2008 at 2:22 pm
#242@Phantom: True enough if Dykstra was so much better then the other options. Certainly the fact that he can only play 1B (and the Padres already have one and Blanks is only 8 months older) should have some sort of bearing on their pick.
Tim Melville is still out there, if they take a signability pick in the 1st round they better spend some money in their later picks.
June 5, 2008 at 2:24 pm
We’re up.
June 5, 2008 at 2:25 pm
#249@Tom Waits:
Imagine the “Lucky” in a deep voice from an awkward looking kid with a curly blonde afro.
June 5, 2008 at 2:25 pm
#246@Richard Wade: Yeah. Unfortunate.
#248@Ben B.: Why? They probably have a good idea of what it will take to sign Dykstra, regardless of where he was picked. If they haven’t identified another player who will sign for what they’ll pay at 23, it doesn’t make sense to take the chance (no one is saying it’s a lock) that Dykstra would still be there at 42.
June 5, 2008 at 2:26 pm
2004 Draft….that was dumb.
Did they just take someone named Jaff?
June 5, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Who the hell is Jeff Decker? Is this a good move?
June 5, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Well, one thing we can say about Decker is … he’s got tools.
*rimshot*
June 5, 2008 at 2:27 pm
“Our scouts believe Decker may be as pure a high school hitter as there is in the country. More later.” - DePo
June 5, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Decker - Shock. But in the sense of surprising, not disappointing.
June 5, 2008 at 2:28 pm
According to MLB.com:
While most people were looking at Decker as a hitter, there probably are still some who might consider him on the mound. He can throw upwards of 93 mph with a decent curve, and that arm strength serves him well in the outfield. He’s got a pretty good approach as a hitter and has the chance to hit for pretty good power, looking like a Matt Stairs-like right fielder in the future
June 5, 2008 at 2:28 pm
#258@Tom Waits: So this isn’t a bad move, at least in theory?
June 5, 2008 at 2:29 pm
#256@Ben B.: Kevin Goldstein says, “Kinda a strange pick. He’s a high schooler, but he’s kind of bat only. Not great tools, esp. for a teenager.”
How does a guy named Decker not have tools?!
June 5, 2008 at 2:29 pm
#256@Ben B.: Solid.
#257@Richard Wade: Very interesting pick, and he might cost overslot with his commitment to AZ State.
June 5, 2008 at 2:30 pm
John Forsythe at 46, a third basemen from U Arkansas Fayetteville.
June 5, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Decker & Forsyth - yawn…
June 5, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Nice work guys in the Pads front office. Cap off a bad year with a bad draft
June 5, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Jaff Decker was the 62nd rater player by BA.
Logan Forsyth was 76th.
I’m assuming no one thinks that Melville can be bought out of commitment to UNC, he’s the 15th rated.
Lots of highly rated players still out there including high school pitchers Alex Meyer (25th) and Ross Seaton (28).
June 5, 2008 at 2:33 pm
“Logan Forsythe
Skilled player, great makeup, very hard-nosed. More later.” - DePo
June 5, 2008 at 2:33 pm
#260@Phantom: Not at all. He’s not toolsy, but I could see him in RF.
I’d have preferred an arm (Spruill) at 46.
June 5, 2008 at 2:36 pm
#262@Tom Waits: Hopefully they manage to sign him anyway.
June 5, 2008 at 2:36 pm
#267@Richard Wade: Yay, another gritty overachiever. Can we stick him, Payne, Chalk, and some others in a genetic blender?
That’s a good Winfield story. When he was drafted out of HS, they told him “We’ll give you a $500 bonus and a bus ticket to West Virginia.” Nah, I’ll go be a 3 sport star in college, thanks.
June 5, 2008 at 2:36 pm
sniff, sniff, does this mean no Ladendorf?
June 5, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Here’s the scouting report on Forsyth, it’s pretty good:
Forsythe ranked second on Team USA with six steals and third with a .309 batting average (trailing only cinch first-rounder Pedro Alvarez and Brett Wallace), but he came down with a stress fracture in his right foot at the end of last summer. After having surgery in November, he wasn’t able to train as he normally would, resulting in a hamstring pull this spring. Forsythe uses his legs in his swing, and the hamstring injury affected his stroke in the early going. Once he healed, he again began drilling line drives into the gaps and making a push for the second round. Scouts believe he’ll have average power in the big leagues and liken his approach to Mike Lowell’s, so he should provide enough offense to stick at the hot corner. If not, he’s versatile enough to also have played second base, shortstop and left field for Team USA. The 6-foot-1, 208-pounder is more athletic than most third basemen. He has an above-average arm, moves well and is a solid-average runner with good instincts.
June 5, 2008 at 2:37 pm
#264@Peter Friberg:
Tell me about it! The scouting direction of this team pisses me off! I would love to be a fly on the wall in the draft room just to hear the reasoning and decisions being made. It really really interests me a ton! It really facinates me how different the scouting dept. values players that other scouts don’t and how they pass on players other scouts and teams wouldn’t.
June 5, 2008 at 2:38 pm
#271@Peter Friberg: He may be there at 101. But do the Padres have any interest in him?
June 5, 2008 at 2:39 pm
I wonder if they see Decker as a pitcher or an OF
June 5, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Apparently, according to DePo’s blog, we want him as a hitter:
“Our scouts believe Decker may be as pure a high school hitter as there is in the country. More later.”
June 5, 2008 at 2:41 pm
BA has him at 69 and we pick 69. I doubt he’ll be there.
June 5, 2008 at 2:46 pm
266: Meyer is a guy that no one thinks will sign.
I think that calling Dykstra a signability pick is likely a mistake. He is represented by Boras. I’d bet that he will take at least slot money, and to me signability is taking less than slot.
June 5, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Good numbers for Forsyth in college:
2008: 351/479/530 7HR 11SB
2007: 347/431/556 9HR 18SB
2006: 189/298/322 3HR 0 SB
He didn’t have a season like Headley’s junior year (387/530/689 63/28 BB/SO) but his sophmore year was much better. And if he’s versatile enough to play in the middle of the infield then he’d certainly have his uses.
June 5, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Why hasn’t the 2nd round started, I’m tired of looking at Decker & Forsyth
June 5, 2008 at 2:48 pm
#280@Peter Friberg: 45 minute break. It won’t start again until 3:15.
June 5, 2008 at 2:51 pm
#278@Paul R: Interesting definition. Slot = signable to me, because you know exactly how much that is. I mean, very few kids in the top rounds sign for a meaningful amount below slot. Few thousand, in some cases. I think Revere signed for well under last year, but I haven’t checked.
Some Boras clients have signed quickly and for slot before.
June 5, 2008 at 2:51 pm
I’m definitely not hating that Forsyth pick if his numbers were really hurt due to his injuries. Unfortunately it’s near impossible to compare college numbers because I have no idea about park factors but Forsyth hit significantly better then Khalil did in college (although seeing Khalil hit this year might scare you!).
Here’s something else from BA’s John Manuel about the 1st round: So the first round is over, and the last 10 picks were full of surprises. Who’s the bigger surprise, Allan Dykstra to San Diego, or Carlos Gutierrez to the Twins, or Lonnie Chisenhall to the Indians?
At least he says it was Chisenhall. Not good when “experts” think a terrible drafting team made a reach pick.
June 5, 2008 at 2:51 pm
“Decker is a LHP/OF from Sunrise Mountain HS in Peoria, AZ. Though he throws 90 mph with a good curveball as a pitcher, we see Decker as a hitter and he’s a pure hitter.
A left-handed hitter, Decker has fantastic discipline, big power, and a beautiful swing. More than anything though, Decker has a natural rhythm and timing to hit that is innate to all great hitters. He hit 14 homers this spring in just 72 at-bats while also maintaining his patience as the opposition pitched around him. Jaff plays CF in high school, though we expect that he’ll be more of a corner outfielder in the long-term.
Though high school bats are always more risky, we think that Jaff has big bat potential and was worth the selection at 42. At present, he is committed to Arizona State. We were thrilled to get him.” - DePo
June 5, 2008 at 2:52 pm
DePo has more information about both Forstyh and Decker. Seems encouraging.
June 5, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Forsyth does look interesting, I just wonder about a 3B when we are in decent shape for now at that position. Decker I don’t like and I just see too much wishful thinking
June 5, 2008 at 2:53 pm
“Logan is a 3B for the University of Arkansas, though he played all around the diamond for Team USA last summer (he has also caught in the past).
Known for incredible makeup, Logan has been a coach and fan favorite. He played the entire summer for Team USA with a broken foot and refused to come out of games. Furthermore, he continually showed his best performances against the best competition and in the biggest moments.
A right-handed hitter, he has tremendous control of the strike zone while consistently hitting for high average and extra base power. At this point, he has been more of a doubles guy than a homer guy, but we believe his advanced approach and strength will translate to more home run power as a pro. Logan has also stolen 29 bases over the past two years. In short, we think this is a very well-rounded player with great intangibles.” - DePo
June 5, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Here’s a little game we can play. Can anyone correctly predict the Padres pick? We can go round by round. I mean so far our guesses or hopes have all been WAY off and I don’t think anyone has any real clue WTF the Padres are thinking so it’s probably going to be hard.
June 5, 2008 at 2:59 pm
#286@Loren: He allegedly can play middle IF. That might be a great thing for us.
June 5, 2008 at 2:59 pm
#287@Richard Wade: Possible conversion to catcher maybe?
June 5, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Here’s what Law had to say about Dykstra:
He’s a big, strong first baseman with a chance to hit for power. His approach is pull-oriented; I have to see him use the whole field to believe he’ll hit for average and to really profile offensively at first. He’s no better than average at first base and can’t play third. This was probably a Plan B pick because the player they wanted was Havens.
June 5, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Richard B. Wade said…
Would you classify any of these guys as sign-ability picks, or would you take these guys regardless of bonus demands?
Paul DePodesta said…
Allan Dykstra has Scott Boras as an agent.
We’re taking the players that excite us.
June 5, 2008 at 3:23 pm
tick, tick, tick… let’s get going…
June 5, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Scheppers was the 2nd pick of the 2nd round by the Pirates of all teams. I guess they are figuring that they pick healthy pitchers who then get injured, maybe they should start taking injured pitchers who will then get healthy. Again, even if he never gets over his injury, he’s no worse then their usual first round pitcher pick.
June 5, 2008 at 3:34 pm
The Brewers just took Cutter Dykstra (Len’s son) with the 54th pick. I was hoping for dual-Dykstra’s!
June 5, 2008 at 3:38 pm
NOOOOO!!! Ladendorf to Twins @ 60
June 5, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Tim Melville’s still available. They drafted a high school pitcher (Tommy Toledo) last year in the 3rd round and didn’t sign him, maybe they will do the same this year?
June 5, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Ladendorf and Raben are gone. Now what, maybe Nieto?
June 5, 2008 at 3:45 pm
#292@Richard Wade: Ah, DePo, a man so precise with his words is a joy. But while many people see Boras as getting a premium for all his players, its just not necessarily true.
Dykstra was interviewed by the NC Times recently and it sounded pretty clear like he was ready to play pro ball.
June 5, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Another third baseman? Interesting…
June 5, 2008 at 3:48 pm
I sorta like Darnell, although high K totals for a hitter in college are a lot more worrisome than in the pros.
But I would have really liked Spruill, who went next.
June 5, 2008 at 3:49 pm
“Intersting” that’s being polite
June 5, 2008 at 3:50 pm
I’m out…
June 5, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Never get tired of drafting the same guy I suppose.
Ok all I am asking for is that 1 pick out of the draft be a guy that has some athleticism in the outfield (hopefully a CF’r). Galloway would have been sweet there!
June 5, 2008 at 3:52 pm
#300@Geoff Young: Supposedly the best athlete of South Carolina’s infielders (including Havens), BA says he has the potential to be a 5 tool pro. Raw but big upside.
The first really exciting pick.
June 5, 2008 at 3:54 pm
#302@Peter Friberg:
#304@KRS1:
Did you guys have a different scouting report than I saw on Darnell? Very good athlete, strong arm, a lot (lot) of power, easily projects to RF as a pro. Physical specimen.
But not a CF, per KRS1.
June 5, 2008 at 4:04 pm
#306@Tom Waits:
The MLB scouting report on the draft tracker said this…
Hitting Ability: Using a swing that’s flat through the zone, Darnell can really drive the ball.
Power: He’s got more power to the pull side, with line-drive pop on balls on the inner half of the plate.
Running Speed: He’s a below-average runner.
Base running: It’s not a strength.
Arm Strength: He has a solid-average arm, mabye a tick above.
Fielding: His hands are OK in the infield.
Range: He doesn’t have much and may not have the ability to stay at third.
Physical Description: Darnell has gotten more physical, with strength in his shoulders and legs.
Medical Update: Healthy.
Strengths: The ability to make consistently solid contact at the plate.
Weaknesses: A lack of agility may force him from third to the outfield.
Summary: Not as much a pure hitter as his South Carolina teammates Justin Smoak and Reese Havens, Darnell still makes solid contact and has some line-drive power, particularly to the pull side. The Cape League All-Star is strong, but not very agile defensively. That could force a move to a corner-outfield position in the future. How much people think he can develop his raw power may determine how quickly he gets drafted.
Your scouting report sounds much better than the one I read.
June 5, 2008 at 4:05 pm
“Darnell is a big, strong 3B who is athletic and skilled enough to play all over the diamond. His strength is what separates him, as he has hit 18 and 19 homers in the past two seasons. The ball absolutely jumps off his bat, and it was no different with wood as he hit 8 homers in just 128 ab’s on the Cape last summer.
Overall, this is a very toolsy player with a lot of life and power to his game.
Needless to say, we’ve added some serious power today.”
June 5, 2008 at 4:09 pm
#307@KRS1: Yeah, parts of the BA scouting report are polar opposites of that. BA says he’s an above-average runner, that his hands and not his range would be what moves him off 3b, and my favorite part, a potential 5 tooler.
June 5, 2008 at 4:10 pm
#297@Schlom: That is bizarre. I wonder what the story is there. Pirates took Jordy Mercer at #79; he’s a guy I wouldn’t have minded seeing fall to us. Pittsburgh is having a nice draft.
June 5, 2008 at 4:12 pm
#309@Tom Waits:
Yeah that sounds much better!
I guess that goes to show you how much things vary. I truthfully hadn’t heard of the kid so the MLB thing was all I read.
June 5, 2008 at 4:13 pm
This draft has made it really clear that the Padres current administration really values Cape performances with wood bats.
June 5, 2008 at 4:16 pm
#312@Paul R: It would seem that way.
June 5, 2008 at 4:18 pm
My up to date want list…
Issac Galloway
Brandon Crawford
Tim Melville
In no way shape or form do I think any of those 3 will be the pick though.
June 5, 2008 at 4:19 pm
There’s a CF: Blake Tekotte
June 5, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Oh snap, a Center Fielder. I have no idea if he is any good or not but at least he isn’t listed as a 3rd baseman.
I just remembered that Josh Romanski is still out there.
June 5, 2008 at 4:21 pm
BA had Tekotte at #85.
June 5, 2008 at 4:22 pm
This year Tekotte was .371/.480/.607 at Miami as a CF. He had 11 HR and 26 SB
June 5, 2008 at 4:22 pm
He’s also got a personal web site here: http://umsis.miami.edu/~btekotte/Home%20Page.htm
June 5, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Tekotte was all Cape Cod in 2007–next year we should look through the Cape Cod league all stars for the Padres draft wish list. Not saying it’s a bad thing…hitting with wood is sort of an important skill for MLB hitters
June 5, 2008 at 4:26 pm
“Blake is a true leadoff hitting centerfielder who is an above average runner and defender. The best part is that he’s also a hitter. Going into the regionals last weekend, Blake was hitting .374 with a .487 obp and a .598 slg to go along with 25 stolen bases. Blake is an exciting top of the lineup guy who sets the tone for that Miami team. He always seems to be in the middle of the action.”
June 5, 2008 at 4:29 pm
#318@Paul R: For what it’s worth, those are better numbers then the A’s 12th pick Jemile Weeks.
June 5, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Is it wrong for me to like the 4th and 5th picks more than the first 3?
June 5, 2008 at 4:31 pm
It is encouraging to see the influx of offensive prospects into the system.
June 5, 2008 at 4:33 pm
323: I might be in the same boat. I suppose that it doesn’t matter where they get the talent…sort of…maybe…
Darnell and Tekotte both seem like interesting prospects.
June 5, 2008 at 4:35 pm
“Sawyer [Carroll] is a left-handed hitting outfielder for the University of Kentucky. At 6′4″, Sawyer had never hit for much power before this year, but he had always controlled the zone extremely well and had a sweet swing. This year, however, he added 20 lbs and his home run total jumped from 3 to 19. This is a guy who is a good hitter first who has begun to develop dangerous power. He has an inside-out approach and routinely drives the ball to left-centerfield.”
June 5, 2008 at 4:35 pm
According to the U-T, Forsythe led Team USA in steals and played SS and 2B while on that team. That speaks well of his athleticism.
Melville just went to the Royals.
June 5, 2008 at 4:36 pm
The player they took in the supplemental 3rd round, Swain (or Sawyer) Carroll was rated among the top 200 prospects by BA but he had some monster numbers as a college senior (he was an 18th round pick last season):
419/514/782 with 22 2B 19 HR 12/12 SB
Mostly played 1B in 2007 but played RF this season.
June 5, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Conversation in the Padre’s draft room:
“Shouldn’t we draft some pitchers?”
“No, why bother? They keep breaking”
June 5, 2008 at 4:48 pm
brewersfan.net ranked Darnell as the 34th best player available in the draft this year. So that’s encouraging.
June 5, 2008 at 4:50 pm
#323@Tom Waits: Not wrong, but what’s it mean? No MLB teams like those guys enough to draft them in the 1st round … isn’t that the bottom line?
June 5, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Kipnis’ numbers at ASU are ridiculous–363/484/677 Wow. Also had 24 steals in 28 attempts and walked 50 times while striking out less than 40
June 5, 2008 at 4:57 pm
We sure do love ourselves some college outfielders.
June 5, 2008 at 5:06 pm
#332@Paul R: Eligible soph, solid pick.
June 5, 2008 at 5:12 pm
“Jason is an OF for ASU who has always hit - leadoff type. More later. Swamped right now.” — DePo
June 5, 2008 at 5:13 pm
#335@Kevin: Why is he so busy?
June 5, 2008 at 5:15 pm
334: I agree that he seems like a solid pick. Looks like he’s had some disciplinary problems in the past.
June 5, 2008 at 5:19 pm
#316@KRS1: To follow-up, Romanski went to the Brewers at #128. Great day for USD!
June 5, 2008 at 5:21 pm
That Brewers organization is on fire.
June 5, 2008 at 5:23 pm
We took a pitcher. Anthony Bass, Wayne St.
June 5, 2008 at 5:25 pm
In 85 innings last year, Bass gave up 65 hits and struck out 100 while walking 20. Pretty nice splits–even for a Div. 2 team
June 5, 2008 at 6:13 pm
Anthony Bass has improved every year in college playing for a team located in Detroit, Michigan. Check out his college bio at http://wsuathletics.cstv.com/s.....ony00.html
He’s majoring in finance and even had over 3.5 grade-point average this past semester during the season. Very quality kid!!
June 5, 2008 at 6:54 pm
#184@Stephen: Thanks man.