Padres (31-42) @ Yankees (39-33)
Josh Banks vs Joba Chamberlain
10:05 a.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 176
MLB, B-R
The fact that I’ve reached an age where I feel compelled to eat oatmeal every day for breakfast doesn’t bother me so much as the fact that I actually seem to enjoy it.
Some guy named Chamberlain is pitching for New York. Never heard of him…
Not sure that I love walking Posada to get to Cano…but it worked
#96@Schlom: There’s no opportunity cost when spending on amateur free agents. When the Padres pass on a signability guy, they get to pick someone else, who has a signiifcant chance (just because of the attrition rate of prospects) to be better than the more expensive guy.
#96@Schlom: My point was that there has always been financial constraints put on the FO, its not who’s calling the shots its who’s paying the bills and how they feel that their money should be spent.
2004 was a disaster but it was not really KT’s fault and it led to the SA/Fuson era so its not all bad.
#97@Paul R: Mine would have been Drew, Nelson, or Townsend. That’s 2 of 3 with no more payoff than Bush.
There you go, Justin.
Interesting article about 2008 draftees at Baseball analysts. Dykstra had some disturbingly low numbers on Fridays (not a superstition issue-colleges usually throw their best pitcher on Friday and hit mich better at home than on the road. He also hit surprisingly well against LHP last year 323/526/757! Wow…reverse platoon split.
OT … Branyan with HR #10 today …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280619108
… good for him!
#102@Ben B.: Ok, that was phrased badly. There is an opportunity cost because you can spend your money elsewhere. But signing one guy you are interested in doesn’t preclude you from signing the other guy you have ranked about as highly. In the draft, however, choosing one guy means you don’t get to take other players. If the Padres have a bunch of guys ranked close together, since they only get to take one of them, they might as well just go for the cheapest guy.
104: Man, what an ugly top-ten that was…
Judging by the Padres 2008 draft, we’ll likely do pretty well at predicting Padres draftees if we pay close attention to this league this season: http://www.capecodbaseball.org/
#100@Paul R: That, and I’ve had about 10 posts the last week get asterisked out for language that wouldn’t make a Victorian-era schoolmarm blush.
All right, if the Cardinals offer poop on a stick and to pay the rest of Michael Barret’s contract, I’m taking the deal.
A pretty decent start by Banks.
Hey, I didn’t know that former Padre Dave Eiland was the pitching coach.
Eiland pitching coach for the Yankees that is…
#99@Paul R: I don’t know if there’s data, but it would seem to fit the Padres’ philosophy. The more data you have on a guy, against competition you can measure, the better. With Latin America, the competition’s all over the place. There seems to be so much less of an informational foundation. A lot depends on how much of a lever the new DR facility really will be.
I’d also wonder if there isn’t something subtle at work (not just with the Padres) that subconsciously believes international players are more athletic than players who are subject to the draft.
#106@LynchMob: Branyan is so hot….I feel like a fool for writing him off but then again so did almost every MLB GM as I believe he was unsigned well into March.
#108@Paul R: I would have drafted Weaver — not as good as Verlander but he certainly would have helped more then Matt Bush.
#99@Paul R: Of course they are higher risk because you draft them when they are 16. Plus throw in the factor of uncertain birthdates (although maybe that’s less of a factor nowadays) they are much bigger gambles.
#111@Paul R: We’ll be lucky to get them to throw in the stick.
#114@Tom Waits: I think there may be a little truth to that, in the states our best athletes choose between Football, Basketball and Baseball where in the DR all the best athletes play Baseball, it’s a smaller pool to pull from but you get the very best out of it.
#112@JP: 2 runs in 5.1 against that lineup, he should be proud of himself. He could easily be looking at a 4-2 lead right now.
I’m so frustrated with Barrett right now I’m tempted to support starting Carlin full-time. Hopefully that will serve as the jinx Barrett needs to regain his batting stroke.
116: That’s not data. That’s an assumption.
On the 2007 AL All Star team there were 32 players. 13 of them were signed as International free agents, including several who were quite young when they signed (Alex Rios, Ordonez, Vlad Gurrerro, F. Rodriguez, I. Rodriguez, etc). There is high ceiling talent available-because they are 16 doesn’t mean that int’l signings are not good risks. Look again at the top-10 in 2004
119: Banks should be proud. He’s been a great pickup by Towers, the sludge merchant
#118@Steve C: Maybe, but the DR has a total population of 10M. That’s like focusing on the greater Chicago area. The draftable region (US, Canada, Puerto Rico) includes about 350 million people.
122: Which makes the info in post 120 even more impressive. If we could be assured of getting every player we had interest in from DR and Venezuela for the next 5 years, I’d give up our Rule IV draft over that same period of time.
#122@Tom Waits: Right but every top athlete out of that 10 mil plays baseball where it seems like most of the top athletes in the states lean more towards football and basketball (dont have numbers for that just an observation).
#123@Paul R: Are those guys all Dominican? I was more going to Steve’s point about the DR’s well-publicized love affair with baseball. I’m not sure I buy that the best athletes in Latin America all play baseball, but it’s a larger pool.
Did anyone hear if PMac was hurt or just sitting?
#124@Steve C: I’m not necessarily disagreeing, but even if only 5% of the top athletes in the draft region play baseball, that’s about 2x the population of the DR.
#120@Paul R: We are talking about different types here. I’m strictly talking about giving large bonuses to foreign players, not the general cheaper signees. Obviously the more players you sign, the better chance you get a good one. And it probably makes more sense to get them internationally since they are going to be cheaper. I’m not sure that Vlad or Johan got big bonuses when they signed although I might be wrong on that.
#120@Paul R: Minor quibble but Alexis Rios was born in the US so he was actually drafted in 1999 (the 19th pick which I remember people said was a total reach). He was also going to high school in Puerto Rico so he was eligible for the draft.
I was more talking about players like Wily Mo Pena (the current record holder for an amateur free agent signing). If high school players are really hard to project, how can it possibly be easier to project someone 2 years younger?
#126@Tom Waits: umm thats assuming that all 350M are top athletes…
lets assume that 0.001% of the worlds population is a top level professional level athlete, that would mean that about 3,500 people from the US, Canada, and Puerto Rico would be top level atheletes. Nowlets assume that of those 3,500 people only 10% of them choose to play baseball, that would mean only 350 people would be headed to the MLB.
Now lets look at the DR, of the 10 Mil people lets assume that the same 0.001% is a top level athlete but 100% of them play baseball that’s 100 people from a population that’s 35 times smaller than the armature drafts population.
Bleh tough loss for banks
Interesting that Rivera pitched and pitched well 3 straight days vs Padres.
In hindsight, it seems to me a huge mistake to have pitched Rivera in the first game of the series (the blowout the Yanks won 8-0) … knowing that it would not be unlikely for the next 2 games to be closer (ie. create save ops).
Either way, the Padres didn’t generate enough runs to win any of the games … getting Chase up was necessary, but not sufficient … we need a few more out-machines to be converted to hitting-machines …
#129@Steve C: 350 is still 250 more than 100, and that assumes that the best Dominican athletes play baseball (and not soccer, for example). 250 more top athletes (a smaller cohort than top baseball players) is like 8 rounds of the draft.
I’m not disagreeing that baseball players are a bigger relative slice in the DR, but the pie itself is awfully small.
For the third time today, poop on a stick. That was a winnable game.
127: Gurrerro and Rodriguez and K-Rod were big signees. They still cost less than first round picks in the U.S. draft. Nice catch on Rios-I forgot that he was from P.R.
#132@Tom Waits: Right but that’s 20% of the pie that is coming from a place where you don’t have to wait in line to select the best pieces.
#134@Paul R: What do you consider big signees? Near record or just more like $500,000 or so? The Padres are talking about signing guys for millions in the upcoming weeks, not signing 40 players for $1m total. I’m not saying I have a problem with them spending money on a 16 year old, as I said before, you usually have to spend money to get quality. However, if it’s a choice between a 16 year old international player and an 18 year old American player, I’d rather gamble on the American. Personally, I’d prefer both but I’m not sure the Padres will do that.
#135@Steve C: Agree, and hopefully the new facility will be a major attraction.
How does the rule 5 work with kids that are signed at 16? is it still 5 years until they have to be on the 40 man roster?
Padres’ draft pick Erik Davis was Stanford’s winning pitcher in yesterday’s victory over #1 ranked Miami at the College World Series in Omaha.
Davis’ line … 4 IP … 7 H … 2 R … 2 BB … 6 Ks
Nice to see I didn’t miss any discussion of the game.
Glad I did miss the discussions of the NBA Finals and how the commentors here can run the Padres better than those who already run it quite well.
I have never followed the baseball draft, and after the past two weeks of reading the discussions here, I never will.
#140@Kevin: I missed where the commentators here said they can run the Padres better then those in charge do also. Who said that?
#140@Kevin: I’ve tried to follow the baseball draft the past couple of years … and to some extent I’ve realized the futility … my current attitude is to wait to see who the Padres take and sign, then start to figure out who they are and follow how they perform at the lower levels of the farm. If they draft well, the fruit will show forth in 3-6 years … if they don’t, they’ll have to find other ways to win … and if they don’t win, then we won’t be happy and in theory the Padres will less money because lesser fans will spend their money elsewhere … I’m guessing none of us here are “lesser fans” … but if those “lesser fans” stop going to games, there’s a silver lining for us: better seats available at Petco!
In defense of the Ducksnorts community and their attitude about the draft, I will point to the current poll that GY has going … and note that NO ONE has voted that they are not happy with the 2008 draft … splitting 50/50 between being happy (as I am) and realizing that we have no clue (which also characterizes me) … so that gives me some confidence in the grasp on reality that we seem to have
Schlom 71: The major problem is that we (meaning some of us posting here) would have done a better job then the Padres have done.
Schlom 86: Let’s put it this way, if I was in charge in 2004 the Padres would certainly be more successful then they are now. That’s a pretty strong indictment of the front office, isn’t it?
Schlom 141: It was you…
#143@Paul R: I think he was kidding in #141
#141@Schlom: 86
#142@LynchMob: The draft is certainly important. I wouldn’t argue otherwise.
But it’s sort of like college basketball recruiting. I haven’s seen the play. You haven’t seen them play. The stats are often misleading. So let’s wait until they get here, and then we talk about it.
#144@Steve C: The joke fell flat.
#143@Paul R: I was only talking about the draft, specifically the 2004 draft although the 2007 draft will probably end up the same.
The thing about 2004 is that a monkey throwing darts at a board with random names would have done a better job then the Padres did that year. That’s undisputable.
I’m not sure you realize how much the Matt Bush pick cost the Padres. The top two talents in that draft were Jared Weaver (coming off one of the best, if not the best, college pitching seasons ever) and Stephen Drew. I can fully understand passing on Drew (especially with the perceived underachievement of his brother and the fact that Padres just drafted Khalil two years earlier). The Bush pick cost them a playoff spot last in 2007 and would have greatly increased their chances in the playoffs in 2005-2006. Maybe with Weaver they go to a World Series in 2005-2007. How much extra money would that make them? I have no idea but I assume it’s a lot (I don’t think $20m more is outlandish). For a team with a small payroll (and therefore a small margin for error) that’s huge. That’s why we constantly harp on it. We’ve heard for the past few seasons that things have changed but as far as the first round pick goes, it hasn’t changed the last two years.
I want the Padres to win, and unless you have a huge payroll, you just can’t make any mistakes anywhere. The Padres the past four years are a perfect example of this. As good as Towers has been at trading and finding retreads, they’ve still only won one playoff game.
#146@Kevin: It’s not like college basketball recruiting since it’s not a free market. Unless you are USC, colleges don’t pay their recruits to come to school.
WC @ BP on KK …
Kevin Kouzmanoff (TBD)
If luck came in rations, the Padres would have to think they were about out of the bad kind. Kouzmanoff was taking grounders in the pre-game when his back seized up; he could be lost for “substantial time” according to reports out of San Diego after experiencing severe back pain. They’ll wait for the back to calm a bit, but sources seem concerned that this is something more than a simple muscular problem. With Chase Headley up already, the Pads may be forced to use the rookie at his original position at third if Kouzmanoff is out for an extended period of time. This type of back injury is tough to guess on, so I’m going to leave the DXL blank until there’s more information. He could see this clear up quickly, or it could end up lingering like Furcal’s injury; backs are very tricky pieces of machinery.