Padres (31-42) @ Yankees (39-33)
Josh Banks vs Joba Chamberlain
10:05 a.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 176
MLB, B-R
The fact that I’ve reached an age where I feel compelled to eat oatmeal every day for breakfast doesn’t bother me so much as the fact that I actually seem to enjoy it.
Some guy named Chamberlain is pitching for New York. Never heard of him…
179 Comments
Last night’s game was tough to watch.
And oatmeal isn’t so bad, especially if it’s strawberries and cream or some such.
Not sure if I’ll listen to today’s affair. John Sterling + Joba Chamberlain start = Complete nausea
Are they still using a short pitch count with Chamberlain ?
Oatmeal is good with a little Jager…..
I’m bringing something up from last night because I need some explanation. . .some people mentioned how Cruz and Sledge weren’t actually that bad last year. Can someone provide me some stats that actually prove this? They had an OPS under .700. . .I’m not sure how that can qualify as good in any conversation.
#2@parlo: He threw 89 last time. I’m pretty sure Girardi will turn him loose for at least 100. Whether that’s 5 innings or a complete game against the Padres, we’ll have to see.
4: I think that people often look at the Padres overall production from LF last year and get fooled into thinking that Sledge and Cruz couldn’t have been that bad. Really, it’s just an underestimation of how good that Jenga was while he was with the club in the second half of the year. With Sledge and Cruz dragging down the offense, the Padres finished 10th in the NL in LF OPS last year.
By the way, this year we’re 11th in LF OPS with an OPS that’s 50 points lower than last seasons (.755 to .801 in 2007)
#4@BigWorm: Look at their month-by-month splits.
Cruz had a raw OPS of 1.016 through the end of April. He was terrible in May and June, but for about 30% of his time with the Padres he was one of the league’s best hitters.
Sledge was also very good in April, bad in May, above-average in June, and close to average in August.
A player can stink like anything for a short period, and sometimes it doesn’t hurt the team as bad as we might think because its concentrated. So while Cruz and Sledge both had months when they hit like they were holding swizzle sticks, it was still limited to approximately 3 full-time “player months” between the two of them combined.
2. Yankee announcers said last night the pitch count for Joba would be up to 105, an oddly precise number. But this is major league standard; almost not a pitch count.
Go Padres!
#6@Paul R: That’s also true, and it tends to overestimate the Bradley/Hairston combinations because of their short stay. A 1.200 OPS bat who plays 40 games drives the rate stats for his position up, but the absolute most games he could help you win is 40, and that’s not happening anyway.
#4@BigWorm: I think people underestimate how bad Crudge was last year because a lot of their sucking bled over into right field while Giles was out for a month. It seemed like most of their good production came at the start of the year when they were playing left, but then when Giles went down and both had to play almost every day they really started sucking. 2007 Padre right fielders hit .261/.346/.395 despite Giles hitting .271/.361/.416 and having the majority of the plate appearances of right fielders.
Posting a quick comment from my phone while in line for hot dogs at Yankee Stadium. This place is every bit as enchanting as they say it is. I think I could sit out in right field all day, even if there wasnt a game. A good number of Padre fans are here and we’ve seen a good amount walking around the city too. I’m feeling a win today, hopefully the boys make it happen.
GO PADRES!!!
#7@Tom Waits: You realize that your argument works the other way – just about any player can get hot for a month. That doesn’t make them a good player. Over the course of a season these guys were brutal.
#11@Bryan: One of times I went to Yankee Stadium I sat in left-center field in about 10 rows from the back. Not only was I about 600 feet from home plate (seriously, I was way out there, probably 100 feet from the playing field) but it was also a day game (like today) and the sun was just blazing down on us and reflecting off the white facade behind us. It was incredibly hot out there and everyone cheered when the sun went below the top of the stadium.
#12@BigWorm: Neither of them played for a season. Between the 2 of them they didn’t even get a full season’s worth of at-bats.
Yes, any player can get hot for a month. And the games that player helps you win go in the book, just like the games he helps you lose when he’s cold. But when you’re dealing with short time periods, the overall rate stats don’t always tell the whole story. Sledge, who was average or above-average for 142 of his 233 plate appearances, is somewhat underrated by his composite 77 OPS+, because while he was terrible in May and Sep/Oct, it was boiled down into a small, albeit awful, sample.
#12@BigWorm: How about Kobe and the Zen Master? Terrific coaching in Game 3.
Banks looked wonderful striking out A-Rod and Giambi.
It’s a good thing we didn’t draft Joba Chamberlain in 2006 — otherwise we wouldn’t have been able to trade for Michael Barrett (the Padres traded Rob Bowen and the 31st pick in 2006 Kyler Burke)! But Sandy Alderson promised it would be different from now on, let’s see how many players they fail to sign in this draft.
mud just compared headley’s double to something sean burroughs would’ve done. scary. then he called matt by his wifes name…scarier
C’mon, Scotty. His stuff is filthy enough without you helping him.
#17@Schlom: It’s also too bad we didn’t draft Albert Pujols. Or Chase Utley. Or David Wright. Or Brandon Webb. Or Grady Sizemore. Or Lance Berkman. Or any other good player in baseball.
#17@Schlom: I wish we could search the archives, because there were several of us (IIRC) who wanted Joba bad. He was a classic high-upside college guy.
I have to say I’m impressed by that failure by the Padres to score with the bases loaded and nobody out. Sure team can strike out three times in a row, or strike out once and then ground into a double play, but you have to admit it’s exciting to see the strikeout, the out on the attempt to advance on a wild pitch and then another strikeout. Who says the Padres aren’t exciting? They always find inventive ways to not score.
#20@Ben B.: Well said.
They shouldn’t have sent Adrian on that wild pitch. Joba just threw great pitches on the two Ks.
That was depressingly predictable. Three high strikeout, low average righties against a right handed pitcher with great stuff? No chance.
WTF? That’s the 2008 season in a bloody nutshell. Bases loaded, no outs, no runs.
We have to be the worst baserunning team in the majors. We have a unique mix of incredibly slow players and amazingly incompetent instincts.
At least Flannery is no longer at third. I’m all but certain he has no depth perceptions, which accounts for his inability to tell how far away outfielders were with the ball.
Well guys, I found the 2006 draft thread. Looks like I wasn’t around posting then, so I’m out of the woods on that. I’ll start looking through it to find the good and the bad.
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/06/padres-poised-to-pop-pitcher.html
About the only chance Agon has of scoring there is if Joba has a heart attack from shock.
#26@Alan: #26@Alan: The worst Flannery decision I can remember is him sending a gimpy Greg Meyers from second on a shot to CF. The catcher had lit up a cigarette before Bull made it home.
The worst part of that inning was not the bases-loaded, not out choke job. The worst part was the Sean Burroughs comp that Mark Grant dropped on Chase Headley
#21@Tom Waits:
I seem to remember a couple of different mocks or rumors saying that we were actually targeting Chaimberlin if we went with pitching and Antonelli or Parmelee if we went with hitting. I only remember that because after that I did a bunch of internet nerding out on Joba.
#15@Tom Waits: Well, the Lakers won game 3, so I’m assuming you meant one of the other games?
The Celtics were just better, period. And they wanted it more. I’m not sure what you are trying to get at. . .did Phil blow that series? He was probably outcoached in game 4 and 6. It was definitely a strange series – neither team looked like they really wanted it until game 6.
In other words, I’m not sure what you are getting at? Did you think Phil blew the series? Kobe was terrible for two or three of those games (terrible for him).
Or are you just being smarmy again? You’re good at that. Tom Waits: Good at smarmy, bad at admitting he is wrong about anything.
17: In 2006 Joba had pretty significant health concerns or he would have gone higher than the 30’s. He had shoulder issues that were a bit murky. Pretty easy to second guess, but at the time he was a risky prospect because of his health.
#20@Ben B.: That’s the reason the Padres have been terrible throughout pretty much of their history, isn’t it? I’m not going to blame them for not drafting Pujols, only the Cardinals thought he was worth something (drafted in the 13th round in 199). Webb was an 8th round pick in 2000, safe to say not too many saw that coming. Berkman was drafted in 1997 16th before the Padres had a pick so they never had a chance at him. In 200 they took Mark Phillips when Chase Utley went 15th. In 2001 they took 3B Jake Gautreau 14th when Wright went 38th. Sizemore went in the 3rd round, safe to say the Padres could have taken him they wanted. However, they would have needed to buy him out of a scholarship to Stanford so they passed on him. The simple fact is that the Padres have no idea what they are doing and it doesn’t look like it’s going to change. They won’t take real good players because the cost too much and therefore, they never develop any talent. So instead of spending some money on someone like Chamberlain, they go cheap and draft someone like Kyler Burke who can’t play at all — lucky they traded him but he’s still a total bust.
#27@Ben B.: Dang, I miss Hank.
But not only were a lot of people hot for Joba, it seems like we were pretty sharp as a group.
I’ll guess DiMaggio for the trivia question.
#30@Paul R: He should get a kangaroo court fine for that.
#32@BigWorm: You’re right, it was game 4, when the coach whose word you accept at face value when he blames Kobe for “destroying” the 2004 Lakers sat there with this thumb in his posterior and watched his team, the team he’s paid approximately 10M per year to coach, fall apart. Like I said before, it’s not that teamwork doesn’t matter, it’s that people use it far too liberally. In the same genre as “they wanted it more.”
#35@Tom Waits: Yeah, I’m actually really impressed. Peter was right on with pretty much everything, and everyone else was pretty good too. LaPorta, Chamberlain, Masterson, Lars Anderson, complaining about a lot of the college pitchability guys (although LeBlanc has proven that wrong in his specific case thus far), excitement for Latos, there were a lot of good calls.
#23@Kevin: My point is that the Padres will never draft a guy like Joba because he’s going to cost too much money. Instead of gambling on someone like Joba, they take a terrible high school player in Burke. They’ll never end up with someone like Sizemore because they won’t spend the money. And when they do have high picks (203-2004) they blow it by taking crappy players — whether for financial reasons or because they can’t properly evaluate talent.
They have two great draft picks on their team right now — Chase Headley, a 2nd round pick in 2005 and Jake Peavy, a 15th round pick in 1999. We took another high ceiling high school pitcher in the 15th round this season, what are the odds that the Padres sign him?
Holy cow. Headley would need an extra four inches on his bat to even reach that pitch. Joba’s strike zone is a full time zone wide today.
There’s a great game going on while everyone is whining about the draft.
34: You’re clearly right, Burke is a total bust. Let’s forget about the fact that he’s not 20 yet…No one knows what Kyler Burke is yet.
It’s a little silly to criticize the Padres in several of the cases that you mention. If it was clear that Utley was going to be leading the league in HR’s halfway through 2008, he wouldn’t have slid to 15th in the 2000 draft. But it’s worth mentioning that he was considered a low-ceiling college player who couldn’t hit enough to hold down 3B at the time he was drafted. A guy pretty similar to Gautreau (who had medical issues that kept him from being successful). Mark Phillips in 2000 was a guy a lot of us would have been excited about–the high ceiling HS pitcher who had great stuff. Sometimes the high risk-high reward guys don’t pan out.
I’m hoping this doesn’t just come off as being a Padres shill. They’ve obviously made bad (and in 2004 unforgivable) draft decisions in the past, but there is a new administration that seems to be doing better. By dredging through poor drafts of 8 years ago, what is being accomplished?
#38@Ben B.: The worry with LeBlanc was that his plus-changeup and below-average fastball wouldn’t last in the higher minors. Even though his ERA is blown up, he’s still getting strikeouts in Triple A.
#41@Kevin: Not everyone is whining about the draft. Some people are just talking about it.
39: I love that you keep calling Burke a low cost player. He wasn’t. He was a high-ceiling college guy that we signed out of a college commitment. Just like the Indians signed Sizemore (who was not a consensus top-20 pick in his draft year) out of a college commitment. Sometimes the raw tools guys pan out and sometimes they don’t.
44: edit-high ceiling high school guy
Hairston had a nice rip at that first pitch from Joba
#42@Paul R: Agree. Burke was a high-risk, high-reward player. You can’t pick them without accepting the risk that they’re not going to perform. If they were high-reward, low-risk players, that’d be great. But there’s one or two of them a year.
Game day says that Greene lined out. Was the ball hit hard?
#43@Tom Waits: There’s a thin line.
I got the trivia question right.
Let’s see how many times Adrian can get thrown out at home today.
I gotta disagree with Mark on the Adrian collision. I’d rather not have our best player getting injured trying vainly to knock a ball out of the catcher. He was out by a mile.
#36@Kevin: Ichiro! has been an All-Star every year of his career as well.
#44@Paul R: Yeah, Burke wasn’t cheap. He looked exactly like you want your RF to look. Big, athletic, strong as all get out. A not-dissimilar skill set to Francouer. He just hasn’t hit much against any sort of competition.
#48@Field39: He hit it to the right field warning track. But it was a high fly. If it was really hard, Abreu couldn’t have got under it.
would AGon have scored on either of the ground rulers behind him?
I wonder what the single-game record is for number of times stopped at third by a ground rule double and later thrown out at home.
#52@Schlom: True. I guess it depends on if the question was in past tense or not.
Banks breaking stuff is just nasty today.
#49@Kevin: Congratulations. That’s the problem with Yankee trivia questions (although I didn’t hear that one), it’s not like the Padres where the answer is so likely to be Gwynn, Winfield, or Hoffman.
I agree there’s A poster whining about the draft today, but I’m grateful that Ben found that old draft link so we can see that not every comment about the draft is “second-guessing.”
55: It’s tough to say. I doubt it. Those ground rule doubles down the LF line in Yankee Stadium are sort of a joke. They bounce so high off that dirt that almost everything becomes a double. I think that Adrian probably only would have had a single if he’d hit either of those GR doubles.
Josh Banks misses high with lots of pitches. I keep worrying he’s going to stop missing really high and start missing only slightly high, which will cause him to get crushed, but it hasn’t happened yet. Hopefully missing really, really high is a repeatable skill for him.
#37@Tom Waits: Well obviously I should accept your word at face value. . .although you may not have watched too closely since you can’t keep the games straight. Then again, you must have been on the bench to have seen Phil with his thumb up his bum. It must have been the one finger that doesn’t have a ring on it.
Your take: Phil did nothing to help his team in Game 4. My take: Phil probaby tried something, although I have no idea what (you know, since I wasn’t on the bench), it clearly didn’t work and bottom line, the Celtics were better.
Honest question for you: Have you ever played sports? Competitive sports, not just beer league softball. The reason I ask is because you really downplay the importance of non-measurables: chemistry, motivation, etc. . .Have you ever played on a team with one or two “bad apples”? I have, and some of those teams couldn’t get motivated for Vince Lombardi. Players would quit during games – you could see it. We had more talent than teams we were playing but would lose because guys didn’t care. You seem to think that this phenomenon is overused – and it may be in baseball. In basketball (and other sports) I think it’s not emphasized enough. Kobe may not be a quitter, but he is a “bad apple”. Not to mention that Lamar Odom is absolutely a quitter. The Celtics had two definite hall of famers and a third who will probably get in as well. None of them have won a championship. Those guys wanted it and they wanted it bad. Just because you can’t quantify it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
But hey, what do I know? I’m disagreeing with you, and since you’re always right. . .I guess that means I’m wrong!
58: It is encouraging to see how “right” that we were about some of the picks that we wanted. It’s pretty cool to have a record of that. Thanks for having archives Geoff!
The point is that the Padres always seem to draft the wrong guys. They go for a high-ceiling HS guy and he sucks. They go for a polished college arm and they suck or get hurt (or both). Who is ultimately making these decisions? If it’s Towers, they need to get him far away from the draft as he’s terrible at it. If the same people have been in charge over the past five season, they need to fire them and get new ones. There’s only so much you can do with retreads — even the Padres the past four season who may have had the most successful run with retreads were ultimately able to win one measly playoff game.
Thru 4 …
Pitches-strikes – J Banks 67-43; J Chamberlain 71-42.
Ground balls-fly balls – J Banks 6-3; J Chamberlain 3-2.
Batters faced – J Banks 15; J Chamberlain 17.
… who is Josh Banks? What I’m asking … which would probably be a good question for DePo … is how/why is he doing so much better than Toronto (and any/every other club that did not claim him off the waiver wire) think he would be?
Do we really need long posts about the NBA here?
I’m going to my physical therapy now.
#61@BigWorm: My theory on the playoffs is that Jackson and the rest of the Lakers so despise Kobe that they threw the series.
Nice AB by Gerut there in the 5th.
63: They don’t “always” draft the wrong guys. Khalil was a first round pick and Chase Headley looks like he’s going to work out. We drafted Jake Peavy and signed him away from a pretty firm college commitment. Our player development is improving, and I hope it will have more success in the future, but we’ve had some hits too.
Mariners fired their manager as well. What a dysfunctional organization…
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/index
#61@BigWorm: Yes, I’ve played all kinds of sports. And not only have I played on teams that didn’t like each other but won anyway, I can point to many professional examples of it.
As I said in our earlier discussion, I expect teamwork is more important when players depend on one another to do something. The fullback making a block, for example. But I also believe that when the fullback doesn’t make a block, it’s because he’s a selfish jerk, and more because he either simply missed it or he got outplayed.
Not long ago you said that Kobe had “matured” and that was why the Lakers were back in the championship hunt. Now he’s a bad apple again because he lost? That’s EXACTLY what I’m talking about. Too many people use teamwork like a tarp or a roll of duct tape. Poor performance? Blame teamwork! Good performance? Praise teamwork! Padres ‘96, great chemistry overcomes the talent of the Dodgers. Padres ‘97, almost the exact same team, chemistry….what did it do? Keep them from losing 90 games? Whatever impact teamwork may have, it’s tangential compared to talent and skill.
Your attempts to portray me as someone who believes he is always right are laughable, as is your attempt to hang a debate point on a typo. You must be proud of a “victory” earned by my left index finger wandering 1/2 inch to the left of its intended target.
#69@Tom Waits: it’s “not” because he’s a selfish jerk.
Yay, another typo!
#49@Kevin: I don’t know if we are whining but complaining, I think there’s a difference.
The major problem is that we (meaning some of us posting here) would have done a better job then the Padres have done. That’s not good. Granted, it’s easier since it’s not our money but the Padres are supposed to experts, and they certainly haven’t been when it comes to the draft.
#64@LynchMob: The Yankees aren’t throwing out a B lineup today, either.
Like someone else said, Banks is missing high a lot.
There was a story on MLBTradeRumors that the Cardinals inquired about Barrett before they knew their Molina wasn’t badly hurt. Do they think the Edmonds-NL Central mojo would work for him, too?
Poop on a stick.
#72@Tom Waits: If it worked for Edmonds, it’ll work for anyone.
A pitcher who appears nearly unhittable gives up a run …
- M. Cabrera walked
- M. Cabrera stole second
- M. Cabrera stole third
- J. Molina hit sacrifice fly to deep center, M. Cabrera scored
… classic!
71: To claim that anyone posting on this blog would have done a better job in the draft than the professionals in almost any Padres front office is laughable. Most of us are only getting info from media sources like BA and BP and Scout.com. The people in the front office have actually seen the players in question. There’s no way that we can make that kid of assertion. We’re dealing with incomplete information.
tough luck there for the cake eater. gives up his first walk as a starter and the guy scores without a hit
73: Is that a trade proposal for Barett? Because I’m considering it…
I wonder what percentage of games are decided by speed or base running or defense? 5%?
Today’s is shaping up to be such a game …
Great catch by Gerut! Wow!
Thru 5 …
Pitches-strikes – J Banks 89-54; J Chamberlain 88-52.
Ground balls-fly balls – J Banks 6-6; J Chamberlain 4-3.
Batters faced – J Banks 19; J Chamberlain 21.
… go, Josh, go!
anyone else think the kouz-igouchi koozie commercial is lacking charisma?
#77@saintjoel: A Mighty Ducks reference! Awesome!
#69@Tom Waits: Smarm, smarm, smarm. . .it’s just dripping off of you!
Kobe isn’t a bad apple BECAUSE he lost. And nowhere have I said that Kobe’s performance or personality was what caused the Lakers to lose. The Lakers lost because the Celtics were better.
And this is exactly what I am talking about with regards to you: You take something I said (Kobe is a bad apple), twist it (BigWorm said the Lakers lost because Kobe is a bad apple), and then use that to try and prove me wrong (first BigWorm said Kobe matured, now he says he is a bad apple, therefore he is using team chemistry to cover up for other issues), in the face of facts (I specifically stated the Lakers lost because the Celtics were better).
Once again, we are polluting this board. . .funny how conversations with you always seem to turn into that! So I’m done – if you want to discuss chemistry, draft picks, intangibles, Phil Jackson, Kobe, or that one time you were wrong about something back in 2002, feel free to send me you email address.
#76@Paul R: Agree. Not to say we couldn’t be valuable if we had access to the same information, but for me, I’m judging almost all these guys by published scouting reports. I get to see a tiny percentage of them in person, and I’m often sadly surprised to find that what I thought was a heavy mid-90s fastball was called “high 80s slop” by people who know better. Amateurs look better than pros when we can pick and choose our points of comparison; Ramos, for example. But I’m not sure I’d want to list all the kids I’ve wanted to draft over the last 7 years and compare it to the Padres; besides I’ve usually agreed with 90% or more of their choices.
#80@Paul R: I’d like to replay it, but my GameDay is devious.
#76@Paul R: Let’s put it this way, if I was in charge in 2004 the Padres would certainly be more successful then they are now. That’s a pretty strong indictment of the front office, isn’t it?
#67@Paul R: Is it improving? The Padres problem is that with the exception of Headley (and maybe Antonelli as he’s showing signs of turning it around) most of their prospects are in the lower leagues. An organization of Jay Bruce and a bunch of stiffs might rank lower overall then the Padres current organization but I’d rather have Bruce.
#84@BigWorm: I’m saying the Lakers lost because of Kobe! He’s such an unlikeable player that I’ll bet a majority of the country was voting for a Boston team — that’s got to be a first.
#86@Schlom: Maybe you should apply…Bring your wallet!
#84@BigWorm: Yep, it’s all me. Neither you nor any other sparring partner ever bears any responsibility. And anyone who triumphantly states “you can’t keep the games straight” due to a type has no business using “smarm” as an insult.
You specifically stated not only that the Celtics were better, but that the Celtics “wanted it more.”
You’re the one who made the contradictory comments about Kobe. Don’t blame me for remembering them. Did his supply of Great Teammate pills run out before the championship series?
My email address is right there, big boy.
What I think that you’re failing to understand is that Kyler Burke might have had a chance to become Jay Bruce. There are a lot of guys who had a chance to become Jay Bruce. Lot’s of those guys also don’t pan out. It’s just what happens.
Also, Bruce was picked 12th in the country in 2005, before the Padres had a chance to select.
Lots of us would rather that the Padres took a little more high-ceiling talent. But as Tom W. has pointed out, there’s lots of definitions of high ceiling. The Padres have drafted guys who have a chance to end up as star players (Headley and Peavy come to mind–even Sean Burroughs, who most people thought would be a preennial batting champion was high ceiling).
86: You might not have drafted Matt Bush #1, but everyone admits that that was a mistake and the FO has changed substantially since that occurred. The mistake has been corrected.
#86@Schlom: We know Kyle Lohse would be on the team.
More poop on a second stick. Does Agon need to wear a spiked glove so that pickoffs cause serious injury to baserunners?
crap.
#90@Paul R: No more Burroughs talk! They already sent Seany B spores toward Headley once today.
I’m afraid to see what happened to that 86mph fastball down the heart of the plate to Arod. Okay, at least it stayed in the yard.
93:
Oh. That said another word for poop. That starts with a C. and rhymes with trap. This censor is pretty harsh
#88@Steve C: Of course, the 2004 decision was terrible in hindsight and at the time. I think everyone but John Moores knew that drafting Bush 1st was a huge mistake but unfortunately he’s the one in charge.
The problem is that there doesn’t seem to be any plan with the amateur draft other then to take mainly polished college talent. Sometimes they splurge on high ceiling high school talent but most of the time they pass on it or don’t bother signing them. Same thing with the college ranks, they take pitchers like Carillo one year and then pass on Joba the next. When it comes down to it, it seems that finances play the most important role in draft picks. But now they are talking about spending millions on amateur free agents, which is a much bigger gamble then the amateur draft.
86: Looking at a review of the 2004 draft top-10, it’s clear that I would have blown it completely as well. I would have taken Niemann, spent a lot of money signing him, and watched him continue to struggle with his health through the present day. Listen to these names from the top-ten who have totally flamed out-Bush, Thomas Diamond, Mark Rogers, Phil Humber, Niemann, Chris Nelson, and Wade Townsend. Homer Bailey is still a good prospect, but he just imploded again and got sent back to AAA. The only real success story is Justin Verlander, who I wouldn’t have picked at 15 in that draft because he was having trouble dominating lower-level college hitters.
Maybe the baseball draft is just harder than we think that it is. It’s much harder than the NFL or NBA drafts. The game is harder.
#95@Paul R: I would have had the same collection of asterisks earlier, but I finally used the Preview once.
96: I’d love to see some data that supports the idea that amateur free agents are a worse risk than amateur draftees. I’m pretty sure that you don’t have any.
98: That’s because you’re starting to get a little nervous about typos
Not sure that I love walking Posada to get to Cano…but it worked
#96@Schlom: There’s no opportunity cost when spending on amateur free agents. When the Padres pass on a signability guy, they get to pick someone else, who has a signiifcant chance (just because of the attrition rate of prospects) to be better than the more expensive guy.
#96@Schlom: My point was that there has always been financial constraints put on the FO, its not who’s calling the shots its who’s paying the bills and how they feel that their money should be spent.
2004 was a disaster but it was not really KT’s fault and it led to the SA/Fuson era so its not all bad.
#97@Paul R: Mine would have been Drew, Nelson, or Townsend. That’s 2 of 3 with no more payoff than Bush.
There you go, Justin.
Interesting article about 2008 draftees at Baseball analysts. Dykstra had some disturbingly low numbers on Fridays (not a superstition issue-colleges usually throw their best pitcher on Friday and hit mich better at home than on the road. He also hit surprisingly well against LHP last year 323/526/757! Wow…reverse platoon split.
OT … Branyan with HR #10 today …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280619108
… good for him!
#102@Ben B.: Ok, that was phrased badly. There is an opportunity cost because you can spend your money elsewhere. But signing one guy you are interested in doesn’t preclude you from signing the other guy you have ranked about as highly. In the draft, however, choosing one guy means you don’t get to take other players. If the Padres have a bunch of guys ranked close together, since they only get to take one of them, they might as well just go for the cheapest guy.
104: Man, what an ugly top-ten that was…
Judging by the Padres 2008 draft, we’ll likely do pretty well at predicting Padres draftees if we pay close attention to this league this season: http://www.capecodbaseball.org/
#100@Paul R: That, and I’ve had about 10 posts the last week get asterisked out for language that wouldn’t make a Victorian-era schoolmarm blush.
All right, if the Cardinals offer poop on a stick and to pay the rest of Michael Barret’s contract, I’m taking the deal.
A pretty decent start by Banks.
Hey, I didn’t know that former Padre Dave Eiland was the pitching coach.
Eiland pitching coach for the Yankees that is…
#99@Paul R: I don’t know if there’s data, but it would seem to fit the Padres’ philosophy. The more data you have on a guy, against competition you can measure, the better. With Latin America, the competition’s all over the place. There seems to be so much less of an informational foundation. A lot depends on how much of a lever the new DR facility really will be.
I’d also wonder if there isn’t something subtle at work (not just with the Padres) that subconsciously believes international players are more athletic than players who are subject to the draft.
#106@LynchMob: Branyan is so hot….I feel like a fool for writing him off but then again so did almost every MLB GM as I believe he was unsigned well into March.
#108@Paul R: I would have drafted Weaver — not as good as Verlander but he certainly would have helped more then Matt Bush.
#99@Paul R: Of course they are higher risk because you draft them when they are 16. Plus throw in the factor of uncertain birthdates (although maybe that’s less of a factor nowadays) they are much bigger gambles.
#111@Paul R: We’ll be lucky to get them to throw in the stick.
#114@Tom Waits: I think there may be a little truth to that, in the states our best athletes choose between Football, Basketball and Baseball where in the DR all the best athletes play Baseball, it’s a smaller pool to pull from but you get the very best out of it.
#112@JP: 2 runs in 5.1 against that lineup, he should be proud of himself. He could easily be looking at a 4-2 lead right now.
I’m so frustrated with Barrett right now I’m tempted to support starting Carlin full-time. Hopefully that will serve as the jinx Barrett needs to regain his batting stroke.
116: That’s not data. That’s an assumption.
On the 2007 AL All Star team there were 32 players. 13 of them were signed as International free agents, including several who were quite young when they signed (Alex Rios, Ordonez, Vlad Gurrerro, F. Rodriguez, I. Rodriguez, etc). There is high ceiling talent available-because they are 16 doesn’t mean that int’l signings are not good risks. Look again at the top-10 in 2004
119: Banks should be proud. He’s been a great pickup by Towers, the sludge merchant
#118@Steve C: Maybe, but the DR has a total population of 10M. That’s like focusing on the greater Chicago area. The draftable region (US, Canada, Puerto Rico) includes about 350 million people.
122: Which makes the info in post 120 even more impressive. If we could be assured of getting every player we had interest in from DR and Venezuela for the next 5 years, I’d give up our Rule IV draft over that same period of time.
#122@Tom Waits: Right but every top athlete out of that 10 mil plays baseball where it seems like most of the top athletes in the states lean more towards football and basketball (dont have numbers for that just an observation).
#123@Paul R: Are those guys all Dominican? I was more going to Steve’s point about the DR’s well-publicized love affair with baseball. I’m not sure I buy that the best athletes in Latin America all play baseball, but it’s a larger pool.
Did anyone hear if PMac was hurt or just sitting?
#124@Steve C: I’m not necessarily disagreeing, but even if only 5% of the top athletes in the draft region play baseball, that’s about 2x the population of the DR.
#120@Paul R: We are talking about different types here. I’m strictly talking about giving large bonuses to foreign players, not the general cheaper signees. Obviously the more players you sign, the better chance you get a good one. And it probably makes more sense to get them internationally since they are going to be cheaper. I’m not sure that Vlad or Johan got big bonuses when they signed although I might be wrong on that.
#120@Paul R: Minor quibble but Alexis Rios was born in the US so he was actually drafted in 1999 (the 19th pick which I remember people said was a total reach). He was also going to high school in Puerto Rico so he was eligible for the draft.
I was more talking about players like Wily Mo Pena (the current record holder for an amateur free agent signing). If high school players are really hard to project, how can it possibly be easier to project someone 2 years younger?
#126@Tom Waits: umm thats assuming that all 350M are top athletes…
lets assume that 0.001% of the worlds population is a top level professional level athlete, that would mean that about 3,500 people from the US, Canada, and Puerto Rico would be top level atheletes. Nowlets assume that of those 3,500 people only 10% of them choose to play baseball, that would mean only 350 people would be headed to the MLB.
Now lets look at the DR, of the 10 Mil people lets assume that the same 0.001% is a top level athlete but 100% of them play baseball that’s 100 people from a population that’s 35 times smaller than the armature drafts population.
Bleh tough loss for banks
Interesting that Rivera pitched and pitched well 3 straight days vs Padres.
In hindsight, it seems to me a huge mistake to have pitched Rivera in the first game of the series (the blowout the Yanks won 8-0) … knowing that it would not be unlikely for the next 2 games to be closer (ie. create save ops).
Either way, the Padres didn’t generate enough runs to win any of the games … getting Chase up was necessary, but not sufficient … we need a few more out-machines to be converted to hitting-machines …
#129@Steve C: 350 is still 250 more than 100, and that assumes that the best Dominican athletes play baseball (and not soccer, for example). 250 more top athletes (a smaller cohort than top baseball players) is like 8 rounds of the draft.
I’m not disagreeing that baseball players are a bigger relative slice in the DR, but the pie itself is awfully small.
For the third time today, poop on a stick. That was a winnable game.
127: Gurrerro and Rodriguez and K-Rod were big signees. They still cost less than first round picks in the U.S. draft. Nice catch on Rios-I forgot that he was from P.R.
#132@Tom Waits: Right but that’s 20% of the pie that is coming from a place where you don’t have to wait in line to select the best pieces.
#134@Paul R: What do you consider big signees? Near record or just more like $500,000 or so? The Padres are talking about signing guys for millions in the upcoming weeks, not signing 40 players for $1m total. I’m not saying I have a problem with them spending money on a 16 year old, as I said before, you usually have to spend money to get quality. However, if it’s a choice between a 16 year old international player and an 18 year old American player, I’d rather gamble on the American. Personally, I’d prefer both but I’m not sure the Padres will do that.
#135@Steve C: Agree, and hopefully the new facility will be a major attraction.
How does the rule 5 work with kids that are signed at 16? is it still 5 years until they have to be on the 40 man roster?
Padres’ draft pick Erik Davis was Stanford’s winning pitcher in yesterday’s victory over #1 ranked Miami at the College World Series in Omaha.
Davis’ line … 4 IP … 7 H … 2 R … 2 BB … 6 Ks
Nice to see I didn’t miss any discussion of the game.
Glad I did miss the discussions of the NBA Finals and how the commentors here can run the Padres better than those who already run it quite well.
I have never followed the baseball draft, and after the past two weeks of reading the discussions here, I never will.
#140@Kevin: I missed where the commentators here said they can run the Padres better then those in charge do also. Who said that?
#140@Kevin: I’ve tried to follow the baseball draft the past couple of years … and to some extent I’ve realized the futility … my current attitude is to wait to see who the Padres take and sign, then start to figure out who they are and follow how they perform at the lower levels of the farm. If they draft well, the fruit will show forth in 3-6 years … if they don’t, they’ll have to find other ways to win … and if they don’t win, then we won’t be happy and in theory the Padres will less money because lesser fans will spend their money elsewhere … I’m guessing none of us here are “lesser fans” … but if those “lesser fans” stop going to games, there’s a silver lining for us: better seats available at Petco!
In defense of the Ducksnorts community and their attitude about the draft, I will point to the current poll that GY has going … and note that NO ONE has voted that they are not happy with the 2008 draft … splitting 50/50 between being happy (as I am) and realizing that we have no clue (which also characterizes me) … so that gives me some confidence in the grasp on reality that we seem to have
Schlom 71: The major problem is that we (meaning some of us posting here) would have done a better job then the Padres have done.
Schlom 86: Let’s put it this way, if I was in charge in 2004 the Padres would certainly be more successful then they are now. That’s a pretty strong indictment of the front office, isn’t it?
Schlom 141: It was you…
#143@Paul R: I think he was kidding in #141
#141@Schlom: 86
#142@LynchMob: The draft is certainly important. I wouldn’t argue otherwise.
But it’s sort of like college basketball recruiting. I haven’s seen the play. You haven’t seen them play. The stats are often misleading. So let’s wait until they get here, and then we talk about it.
#144@Steve C: The joke fell flat.
#143@Paul R: I was only talking about the draft, specifically the 2004 draft although the 2007 draft will probably end up the same.
The thing about 2004 is that a monkey throwing darts at a board with random names would have done a better job then the Padres did that year. That’s undisputable.
I’m not sure you realize how much the Matt Bush pick cost the Padres. The top two talents in that draft were Jared Weaver (coming off one of the best, if not the best, college pitching seasons ever) and Stephen Drew. I can fully understand passing on Drew (especially with the perceived underachievement of his brother and the fact that Padres just drafted Khalil two years earlier). The Bush pick cost them a playoff spot last in 2007 and would have greatly increased their chances in the playoffs in 2005-2006. Maybe with Weaver they go to a World Series in 2005-2007. How much extra money would that make them? I have no idea but I assume it’s a lot (I don’t think $20m more is outlandish). For a team with a small payroll (and therefore a small margin for error) that’s huge. That’s why we constantly harp on it. We’ve heard for the past few seasons that things have changed but as far as the first round pick goes, it hasn’t changed the last two years.
I want the Padres to win, and unless you have a huge payroll, you just can’t make any mistakes anywhere. The Padres the past four years are a perfect example of this. As good as Towers has been at trading and finding retreads, they’ve still only won one playoff game.
#146@Kevin: It’s not like college basketball recruiting since it’s not a free market. Unless you are USC, colleges don’t pay their recruits to come to school.
WC @ BP on KK …
Kevin Kouzmanoff (TBD)
If luck came in rations, the Padres would have to think they were about out of the bad kind. Kouzmanoff was taking grounders in the pre-game when his back seized up; he could be lost for “substantial time” according to reports out of San Diego after experiencing severe back pain. They’ll wait for the back to calm a bit, but sources seem concerned that this is something more than a simple muscular problem. With Chase Headley up already, the Pads may be forced to use the rookie at his original position at third if Kouzmanoff is out for an extended period of time. This type of back injury is tough to guess on, so I’m going to leave the DXL blank until there’s more information. He could see this clear up quickly, or it could end up lingering like Furcal’s injury; backs are very tricky pieces of machinery.
#150@LynchMob: KK has had a history of back problems so this is not new.
#149@UCLA Grad: It is the same in that I don’t follow the players until they get to the Padres or N.C. State.
148: If you look back at the top-ten picks in the MLB draft in 2004, you’ll note that Weaver and Drew are not present. Weaver was selected at 12 and Drew at 15. 11 other teams passed on Weaver. 14 teams passed on Drew. Calling the Padres out for passing on those players in particular is a little silly since half the teams in baseball also passed on them.
Does this indicate that there is something inherently unfair about the baseball draft-Absolutely. I wish that the Padres had spent the $ as well, but as was stated earlier, 3 of the 4 guys that Tom or I would have picked (Niemann, Townsend, and Nelson) have not panned out either. We would have spent more money for the same amount of production that Bush has given the Padres. The baseball draft needs to get fixed-slotting bonuses like the NBA does would be a great solution, but right now it’s broken and it’s important to note that even though the Padres made a bad decision, there are systemic corruptions at work as well.
#139@LynchMob: Erik Davis knows a bit about what CY is going thru …
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/?p=569
#153@Paul R: The most important fact about the 2004 draft for me is that it has been acknowledged for its mistakes and MAJOR changes have been made within the Padres FO since then … so it’s ancient history … it’s been learned from … reacted to … responded to … done …
155: That’s exactly my point! Post 42; 90…and others.
2004 needs to stop being brought up as a point against this front office.
#153@Paul R: To me, the only way a fixed slotting system would be fair to the players is if the owners agreed to radically shorten the time needed for them to become free agents, maybe based on the age of the player when he was signed. Something like this (back of the napkin) for college draftees:
No more than 3 years of service time in the minors without being on the 40 man. If they don’t put you on by then, you have the option of becoming a minor league free agent.
Major league free agency after 4 years of service time.
After two full years of major league service time, everybody is eligible for arbitration.
That’s not something I’ve put a ton of thought into, but it seems like it might balance the needs of The Game (to distribute talent to teams that need it) and the needs of the employees (to have some means of increasing their earnings after giving up the right to negotiate the money in that first contract).
#154@LynchMob: I’m amazed that doesn’t happen more in college with the aluminum bats. During the Gorilla Ball era we were lucky no one died.
#148@Schlom: I might be misinterpreting your first sentence, so sorry if this is not what you meant, but
Are you calling the 2007 draft a probable complete and utter failure AFTER ONE YEAR?!!?!?!?!?
#155@LynchMob: Has it changed? We hear talk but no action. In 2007, for their first pick, they passed on a perceived superior talent to take a cheaper, polished pitcher. This past draft, it certainly looks like they took a cheaper, polished player ahead of a more expensive, higher risk/reward player. They’ve also failed to sign high school talents over the past two years. This year there are three “hard” signs, Mooneyham, Figueroa, and Kipnis. We’ll see if what happens with them.
#159@Ben B.: Nope, just calling the first pick a likely failure. Just because other picks hit doesn’t excuse the failure with their first selection. If Kyle Blanks makes the majors (or is traded for someone who contributes) does that make the 2004 draft a good one?
In both of those years, they let financial considerations play a large role (maybe the largest role) in who they selected. Does that make any kind of sense to you?
Understand that I’m not knocking the Padres’ management for everything, just for two things — their amateur draft philosophy and their inability to secure a passable 5th starter. I think everything else they’ve done is simply amazing — show me another veteran team in this day and age that wins with a payroll like the Padres. I don’t think there is one (heck, there might not have been one ever).
But just because they’ve been successful lately doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for improvement. If you get one regular major leaguer out of each draft that would be outstanding. And since your first pick is the player most likely to be that impact player, why would you let anything other then talent factor into your decision making?
#131@LynchMob:
Rivera vs. the Padres: 1 double, 1 GiDP, 7 K’s (2 vs. Khalil).
It’s too bad that the Padres couldn’t score today with the bases loaded and no out, and, perhaps, get Trevor a chance to pitch in the 9th in Yankees Stadium.
Josh Banks, otoh, turns out to be pretty good pitcher against that lineup.
Great job, Josh. Welcome to the Padres, where you must only give up 1 run or fewer to win games.
#160@Schlom: Yes, it has changed. There is a completely different front office in place.
#164@Richard Wade: Well, not completely different. Gayton and Towers both still play key roles in the draft. But there’s now a well-designed process in place, whereas before it was a lot of randomness. They’ve had four above-average drafts in a row.
#161@Schlom: Of course money should be considered when making picks. Just like money is considered in every other aspect of baseball operations. I do agree with you that they’re undervaluing the upside of these players they’re passing on for financial reasons, but if they decide Mooneyham this year isn’t worth the $3 million (or whatever) he’s asking for, that’s a perfectly legitimate conclusion. Every team in baseball reaches that conclusion frequently. For example, the Red Sox didn’t sign Pedro Alvarez out of high school.
#162@Schlom: I’d say Josh Banks looks to be a pretty serviceable fifth starter, as did Estes until he fell down those stairs.
#162@Schlom: I think you are on the mark much of the time (especially your hyper focus on the draft) but not sure where you are coming from with your “passable” 5th starter criticism. Of all the things to harp on the 5th starter spot has been fine this year. After all, isn’t this one aspect that KT has been good at, finding a “passable” pitcher off the scrap heap. Banks looks good to say the least. Look at the 2008 season and examine the 5th starter spot and give me the stats/rundown.
#168@JP: I can’t run the stats easily as too many of the “5th” starters have relief stints as well. It might take a little while. I’m defining 5th starter as a starter outside of Peavy, Maddux, Yound and Wolf.
That actually didn’t take that long since there was only five starters: Ledezma, Germano (6 starts each), Banks, Estes and Baek (4 starts each). In those 24 starts, the total ERA is 4.84 with a WHIP of 1.332 (not counting HBP). In 128.1 innings, they’ve given up 124 hits, 47 walks, 70 strikeouts, and 13 home runs. For probably starting half their games in Petco (I didn’t look up home and road starts, too much trouble) that’s really not that good. By comparison, the Big 4 have an ERA of 3.61, 1.256 WHIP. In 49 starts, they have 291.1 innings, 274 hits, 92 walks, 236 strikeouts and 32 homeruns. That’s a significant difference.
Does Wil Ledezma get his starts this year if we has picked up someone like Kyle Lohse ?
Take Ledezma out of the equation and then what do we have as far as the WHIP and ERA ?
There is not a single team in all of baseball that is 7 servicable starters deep.
Picking up someone like Lohse wouldn’t have made one bit of difference to this team. A team whose offensive production has been pretty darn bad.
BTW, spending a lot of time in Chico, Ca. and with Lohse being a Chico boy, I have followed Lohse’s career pretty closely and lets face it, the guy has been a fringe pitcher most of his career and so to now, in hindsight say at the half point of the season, “see I told you so” sounds to be a bit tainted by sham.
#115@JP: Looks like you are losing that bet pretty badly haha. Branyan is getting his MLB ABs and making the most of them. .305 AVG .800+ OPS with 10 HRs in his last 20 games.
#173@SDSUBaseball: Yeah and I owe you, Ben B. and Waits !
I’ll eat big time crow on this one
Your not going to tell me though that we would have won the crown in 2007 if we had kept Branyan….are you ?
Anything is possible…..these guys are pro’s after all.
Look at former Padre Ramon Vasquez.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6815
I didn’t realize how few at bat’s Russell the muscle has had though in 2008. Only 70 or so at bats……and 9 homeruns……that’s unreal….no one could have seen this coming….the dude was out of baseball with no contract until mid- March.
#79@LynchMob: Going back to Schlom’s constant and legit. critique of the drafts of Padres past –it absolutely amazes me how little emphasis the Padres seem to put , considering Petco, on team speed. Shouldn’t there be 3 or 4 Cedric Hunters in the system. Why is it that Cedric Hunter is the lone prospect speed merchant in the system ?
How can you consistently field a team in Petco that has no speed.
#177@JP: They’ve consistently had winning records, often strongly so, in Petco without much speed. And Hunter isn’t a speed merchant, btw. Above-average speed, and since he’s usually described as physically mature already he may not grow to “average” the way some players do. Some of the kids they drafted this year have above average speed, too. Several Padre prospects are in that 15-25 steal range as pros. Not burners, but not cloggers either.
#168@JP: The lack of quality back-end starters hurt us in 2004 (no replacements for Valdez), 2005, and 2007.
#172@JP: Of course a better SP would have made a difference. It wouldn’t have put us at .500, but Lohse (example) has been much better than Germano and Ledezma, and would have helped cushion the blow of losing Young. It’s not as important as Greene’s struggles at SS or the nothing our catchers have provided at the plate, but we can’t just blow it off, either.
It’s true, very few teams go 7 quality starters deep. Probably the same number of teams that have 3 major-league quality centerfielders on their 40 man roster in late September.
#178@Tom Waits:
It’s true, very few teams go 7 quality starters deep. Probably the same number of teams that have 3 major-league quality centerfielders on their 40 man roster in late September.
I’m not asking for the world here. I would have rather had someone like Freddy Guzman in center field than a 35 year old left fielder that they picked up off the waiver wire patrolling center field.