Weekend Winter Wrapup (5 Nov 07)

I tried to watch some of the USD – Long Beach State game on Sunday at Cunningham Stadium, but it was brutal. These kids haven’t been playing for some time, and it showed. I’ve never seen so many walks and wild pitches.

To the winter leagues…

Friday, November 2

  • Matt AntonelliSaguaros 11, Javelinas 5 (box | recap). Matt Antonelli, batting sixth, singled, doubled, and drew three walks in five trips to the plate. Nick Hundley, in the #8 hole, went 2-for-4 with a walk and 3 RBI. The Saguaros pounded out 15 hits on the day. Jonathan Ellis worked a 13-pitch perfect eighth, while Will Startup needed just 10 pitches to close out the victory, allowing a one-out single before inducing a game-ending double play started by Antonelli. Ex-Padre Sean Thompson couldn’t find the plate and took the loss for the Javelinas.
  • Azucareros 6, Licey 0 (box). Yordany Ramirez batted eighth and went 1-for-3. He played right field in this one to accommodate Felix Pie, whose name has surfaced in rumors involving the Padres. (Incidentally, Kansas City’s David DeJesus is mentioned as another possibility in the linked article. I’ve been tracking him for some time; I think his combination of on-base skills and defense would make him a good fit for Petco Park.)
  • Escogido 4, Aguilas 3 (box). Vince Sinisi, batting third and playing left field, hit his second homer of the season. It came off Jose Lima. Geez, how is that guy younger than I am? Ex-Padre Bernie Castro homered for Aguilas; he has two home runs this winter after hitting one all season. A bunch of former Padres in this one: Juan Melo, Freddy Guzman. What the heck is Luis Polonia doing in the Aguilas lineup? He could break a hip or something.
  • Mazatlan 5, Navojoa 3 (box). Oscar Robles doubled twice in four at-bats. Luis Cruz, playing third base, went 0-for-3 with a walk. Brian Myrow is playing first base for Mazatlan; why wasn’t I informed? Batting cleanup, Myrow went 2-for-2 with two walks. As he does everywhere, he’s hitting the tar out of the ball (.316/.469/.447). I don’t care if he’s 31 years old; someone should be able to use this guy.
  • Mexicali 2, Guasave 1 (box). Jared Wells faced four batters in the eighth — one reached base on an error by the shortstop, and another, former big-leaguer Armando Rios, knocked a two-out single. Wells has been predictably inconsistent for Mexicali this winter.

Saturday, November 3

  • Will VenableSurprise 6, Saguaros 5 (box | recap). Antonelli, batting ninth, went 1-for-3 and laid down a sacrifice bunt. Will Venable singled twice in four at-bats out of the cleanup spot; he got the start in left field. John Hudgins started and allowed one run over three innings. He gave up just one hit but walked three batters. This was Hudgins’ second start in 2007. He threw 49 pitches in the first one and 46 more on Saturday. Best to err on the side of caution after such an extended layoff.
  • Gigantes 4, Escogido 3 (box). Sinisi doubled and walked in five plate appearances.
  • Licey 6, Estrellas 3 (box). Ramirez, again in right field, went 2-for-3.
  • Mazatlan 6, Navojoa 1 (box). Robles went 1-for-3, Cruz went 1-for-2. On the other side, Myrow went 1-for-4.
  • Mexicali 7, Guasave 6 (box). Wells worked an inning and two-thirds, allowing one run on one hit and one walk. He entered with runners at the corners and one out in the eighth, and a 3-0 lead. The first batter Wells faced, former big-leaguer Jolbert Cabrera, knocked both runners home with a double. A passed ball and wild pitch scored Cabrera, tying the game. Wells then walked a batter and allowed a stolen base before getting out of the inning without further damage. He then worked a perfect ninth — two grounders to short and a strikeout (looking). I guess if you’re looking for silver linings, you could point to the fact that Wells bounced back strong in his second inning of work. Eh…
  • Caracas 7, Aragua 6 (box). Paul Abraham lived a pitcher’s dream. He entered with two out in the eighth and his team trailing, 6-4. Aragua third baseman Luis Maza was nailed trying to steal second. Caracas then scored three runs in the top of the ninth and won, 7-6, giving Abraham the victory without ever retiring a batter.

Sunday, November 4

  • Aguilas 6, Licey 0 (box). More right field for Ramirez: 0-for-3 with a strikeout.
  • Escogido 6, Estrellas 6 (box). Sinisi had himself a nice little weekend. He homered in four at-bats on Sunday. Bearing in mind the extremely small sample (40 PA), he’s putting up some solid numbers (.343/.400/.686) in the Dominican. Seriously, what can Terrmel Sledge do that Sinisi can’t? Hopefully it’s not the same thing that kept Paul McAnulty out of a job in ’07.
  • Mazatlan 4, Navojoa 3 (box). Mazatlan completed the weekend sweep at home. Robles went 1-for-4 with a solo homer in a losing cause. Cruz moved up to the #3 spot and started in center field, going 0-for-4. I should mention that technically Cruz is a minor-league free agent, but since he played in the system this year, we’ll keep tracking him. (Same goes for Ramirez in the Dominican Republic and Abraham in Venezuela.)

Tunes: Joe Pass, Billie Holliday, Eric Alexander, Nat Adderly, Walter Blanding, Herbie Hancock, Winard Harper, David Hazeltine, Red Holloway, Wes Montgomery.

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134 Responses »

  1. Ok-we’ll give you Headley and KG for Manny, Paperlbon and Buscholz

    You get a starting 3B and starting SS for a LF you don’t want, a AAA SP and a guy who isn’t good enough to stay in either the rotation or the pen…

    I like your logic!!! This could be fun with a bunch of other teams as well

  2. re 50: You realize JMI is only developing about 10% of the ballpark district, right?

    I’d hardly say they had any significant risk

  3. re:38, plus you wanted our best prospect in return for 2 overpaid underachievers and 2 unproven rookie commodities for our PROVEN top 5 in the MLB starter in Peaves and u want our top rate ss as well….

    i mean the ideas are just so off base

  4. I really believe Crisp would do great at Petco.

  5. MLB TradeRumors has their annual top-50 FA list up, along with predicted destinations.

    You’ll never guess who we got….


  6. re 54:

    Very complicated question: WHY?

    *please don’t answer with something along the lines of “I just think so because the outfield is big.”

  7. What would you like me to say. Crisp would be staying in Boston but you need to make room for Jacoby Ellsbury.

  8. re 57: Yup, counting on Manny and JD Drew to play every day is always a good idea

  9. 57: How about using facts and logic instead of what you “believe.” Crisp is not a good offensive player at all and any player going from Fenway to Petco — their numbers are going to get worse.

  10. Re: 55 if that happens I will not attened any games this year.

  11. Hey Mark what do you think of Antonelli

  12. Antonelli probably isn’t ready yet, but will be a league average 2B by the 2nd half of the year(or early 09) and get better from there

  13. #55: A healthy Freddy Garcia might be handy. Dude used to eat serious innings.

    Regarding Crisp, he’s useful in a Jay Payton kind of way. I’d rather see the Pads make a play for DeJesus, who has a similar skill set but with less chance of sucking.

  14. I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Khalil if they got a good return and had a replacement in place. But you don’t want to fill a hole and create another one. Khalil will always be slightly overrated because of his counting stats and he does make tons of outs, however a SS that has 74 extra-base hits (44 2B, 3 3B, 27 HR) is extremely valuable. Plus he’s been so bad at home compared to the road that it’s possible that he can learn to adjust at home. If he doubled his road stats (farfetched I know) his numbers would be 288/322/519 with 58 2B and 30 HR — 88 XBH’s from a good fielding SS would make him one of the players in the league.

    The only way I’d trade for Lugo and Crisp is if the Red Sox paid their entire contracts. Otherwise, they are worse than useless because they are league average performers making a lot of money ($9m for Lugo, $4.75m for Crisp). Paying zero for two starters would enable the Padres to actually overpay at another position.

  15. I guess I should phrase my comments on KG by saying if they can fill 2 holes by dealing him(like Rich Hill and Pie) while being relatively certain they can sign Eckstein to a 2 year deal….sounds like a very good idea to me.

  16. Love me a religious debate; all we need is Clayton to check in. Like most here, I presume, I love what Khalil does well and get frustrated by what he doesn’t do so well. My not-quite-Phantomesque-attachment side would be pretty hurt if SD traded him, but I think I’d survive if I thought the trade was part of a makeover that made the team better.

    I am worried that the team is headed for decidedly unsexy “buy-low” moves that look questionable until 2008 play proves the FO correct. Why can’t I get excited about Geoff Jenkins (despite the cool spelling of his first name)?

  17. I really cannot imagine a scenario where Bonds lands in San Diego this off-season. Tim Dierkes (who runs MLBTR and made the prediction of him landing here) says he can’t see him with an AL team. I completely disagree. Bonds is a huge liability in LF, and especially in a park like Petco, you need solid defense. Plus, Petco has killed Barry since 2004, and he no longer thrives in San Diego like he did at the Q.

    That said, I’m not sure what I would do if the Pads signed him. I already paid for half of my season tickets, so I would probably go to those 20 games. I would still root for the team, but it would be really tough with someone like Bonds there. How do you react if he hits a walkoff to clinch the West? Tough call.

  18. I would root for the team and I would still watch them on TV, I just would not go to a game or buy and merch as long as bonds was on the team.

  19. 66: Correction: I meant Coronado Mike (not Clayton). A search would have solved that. Also, not just “buy-low,” but under the radar type moves.

  20. 66: I think the negative perceptions of KG cause me to be overzealous in my defense of him. That said, I absolutely love him as a player and I love watching him play for the Padres. I cringe every time he flails at a slider down and away, because I envision Coronado Mike snickering with glee (with apologies, of course, to Coronado Mike :-) ).

    I think Khalil gets unfairly knocked for his personality, which is totally bizarre to me. You can’t have a full team of Milton Bradleys and you can’t have a full team of Khalil Greenes. They both bring important elements to the team as a whole.

    If the Padres had quote-unquote “traditional production” from the power spots (corner IF, corner OF), Khalil’s out-machine stylings would fly under the radar. Of course, our offense is significantly better than anyone believes (away from Petco, at least), and Khalil suffers the worst home/road splits of any player. When Magadan left in 06, he singled out Khalil as the one person most affected by Petco’s tendencies.

    In some ways, I’d love to see him go elsewhere and thrive. If he did that, he probably would be closer to one of the game’s elite palyers. Obviously though, I’d prefer for him to be less effective at Petco, then to only play a few games a year here.

  21. 70: That last sentence would be better understood as “Obviously though, I’d prefer for him to be less effective at Petco for 81 games instead of only a few a year.”

  22. I don’t think Bonds is as big as a defensive liability as most people in here seem to believe.

    Some interesting numbers, BP has him projected at 8 runs below average defensively next season while hitting .250/.428/.507

    We’re still talking about a LF who is going to be at least 2 wins above replacement and who is coming off a year where he was about as valuable as Ryan Howard and Ryan Braun.

    If they think the organization can take the PR hit signing Bonds is a no brainer from a baseball perspective.

  23. #72: I wonder if they would permanently shut down the SRO area behind the Padres Store to protect Bonds from hometown fans. If he signs here, I’ll still boo the guy.

  24. 73: Agreed. I don’t think it’s possible for Bonds to land in the NL West, given the fact that he’s been a consistent uber-villain for so long. Even when the Padres sucked, you could always take pride in making Bonds get an out.

    Last year, when rumors first started coming out related to Bonds, didn’t the FO experience a deluge of complaints from fans? I just spoke to my mom about this, and she said that she would cancel her full season tickets if the Padres ever did something like this. I have a feeling that there are a lot of people who share her sentiment.

    Kind of how it is with my feelings about Khalil, baseball isn’t just about the stats. There are intangibles (yikes, that sounds lame) that each player brings, like it or not. Khalil brings a wealth of positive intangibles. Bonds brings nothing but boatloads of animosity, hatred, and scorn.

  25. Urgh. Why are we doing this again? Khalil is a very useful player for the Padres. Until anybody can bring up options that would not weaken the team, I can’t see the team trading him away.

    Mark brought up an interesting trade about Rich Hill and Felix Pie. The thing is that option may add another stating pitcher and a possible hitter (Pie hasn’t even a full season in the majors), the hole at SS is going to be bigger than an Eckstein can fill despite his grittiness. Eckstein had been declining, on the DL twice in the last 2 seasons, and his counting stats are not good. I really wouldn’t want to be seeing another 2 months of Silent L at SS.

    Why not try getting KG for 3 yrs (thus, buying out his arbitration years and some) with options sans no-trade clause, get Justin Hampson back in shape to start (after all he was a starter for all the time he was in the Rockies organization) based on how he performed last season coming in for CY early in some of CY’s starts and in long relief), and try to get another OF to compete with Scott Hairston for the LF job and/or as 4th OF? Use the money to get a CF, another starter and a possible placeholder for 2B (I’d be alright if the Padres starts next season with Oscar Robles there).

    Anybody else heard/read that the Orioles may try to trade Eric Bedard? I can’t imagine this to be true. But if he is, the Padres should try and get him instead of thinking of signing any FA starters.

  26. Please, no Bonds in Padres’ uniform. I don’t know what I’ll do without the Padres but I think I’ll manage to go on without them for a season if Bonds ever were a Padre.

  27. Glad I was able to check in today…Nice to see that my KG discussions have been memorable…but then again, so was the bubonic plague, so I don’t know if that is a good thing.

    Re 59: Kevin…Crisp *has* been a good offensive player in the recent past. Look at his numbers pre-Boston. I certainly am not saying he would return to those numbers at Petco, but simply questioning you when you say he “is not a good offensive player at all”.

    As far as KG goes, if we could get Hill and Pie, I would not even think twice. Pull the trigger and send a thank you note.

    I guess the biggest question I have for guys like Phantom and other KG defenders…Usually you are so rational in your defense or attack of certain players and their numbers, but it so often is overlooked that KG flat out is not a good fit for Petco and the “Stat Heads” defending him have me really baffled. I have read so many statements about other players not being good because their OBP is terrible and then the same people defending our out machine at SS.

    If he is so terrible at Petco and so great away from here, as the numbers seem to show, then he is not a good fit for the Pads and should be sent away in a trade before we have to start paying him like the star he ain’t.

    On a side note, I would love me some Freddy Garcia…would not cringe if Geoff Jenkins comes here…and there is something sexy picturing Felix Pie playing CF for the Pads.

  28. 77: The difference with Greene (from other low obp guys) is that he plays above average defense and he has above average power at short. If Greene was an average fielding left fielder, he whouldn’t be very valuable and there would be less people defending him as a good/very good player.

  29. 77/78: I’m with MB. Yeah, his OBP sucks. But given that he has plus power and plus defense at a position where both are hard to find, you forgive a few warts. He frustrates the hell out of all of us sometimes, but the fact remains that it is difficult to find a 25+ HR shortstop who plays good defense all in one package. Headed to take a test right now, so I’m not going to research this yet, but I bet the list of 20 HR shortstops is pretty small…

  30. 78: I think you make a great point. Khalil delivers above average defense and abover average power at a premium position that has notoriously been weak within the organization. As you said, if he was an OF with those numbers, he would likely receive much more criticism. But, since he does deliver many positives at a premium position, along with a few negatives, he gets some additional considerations.

  31. 76. Bonds is a very interesting case. I know they thought about it last year but decided against it because they feared the fan backlash. I’ve seen at least 2 publications predict he’s coming here this year, so I bet he’s on KT’s radar. Numbers certainly look good, but how much would his D kill us at Petco? I might write about this tonight…

  32. Oh, btw, the Padres vs. the Dodgers today… in this league:


  33. re 52: I will take your word for it that JMI is only developing 10% of the ballpark district. I understand that they sold some of their acquired properties to other entities to develop.

    Regardless, the significance of the risk is relative to time, not percentage of development. In the 1998 time frame, no one was willing to be obligated to do the ancillary development required by the MOU, no matter how small or large, except for JMI.

    It turns out that things worked out far better than expected, and more development occurred than even the most ardent proponents of Prop C claimed would occur. It has brought in more tax revenue than “promised” as well. So, with pure hindsight, it could look like no risk at all and another case where the City might have been taken in, but that is not a proper evaluation method. It still does not follow that JMI should be putting money into the Padres.

  34. 79: You ask, and you shall receive. MLB SS with more than 20 HRs and their RF and ZR:

    Jimmy Rollins – 30 HR, 4.41 RF, and .824 ZR
    Hanley Ramirzez – 29 HR, 4.27 RF, and .786 ZR
    Khalil Greene – 27 HR, 4.38 RF, .855 ZR
    JJ Hardy – 26 HR, 4 ZR, .797 ZR
    Troy Tulowitski – 24 HR, 5.39 RF, .866 ZR
    Caros Guillen – 21 HR, 4.29 RF, .807 ZR
    Jhonny Peralta – 21 HR, 4.68 RF, .793 ZR
    Juan Uribe – 20 HR, 4.74 RF, .828 ZR

  35. I’m as big of a stats-guy as anyone … so this is mostly to poke fun at myself (before someone else beats me to it) … here’s an example of stats not aligning with perception …


    Bottom 5 2007 NL Left Fielders, by VORP

    Player, Team, EqA, VORP

    Ryan Langerhans, ATL, -.087, -9.2
    Kory Casto, WAS, -.083, -9.1
    Todd Linden, SFN, .139, -5.8
    Scott Hairston, ARI, .226, -5.4
    Terrmel Sledge, SDN, .239, -4.8

    … which says Hairston was worse than Sledge in 2007 … hmmm … I don’t *think* so :-)

  36. 77: “…there is something sexy picturing Felix Pie playing CF for the Pads.”

    I didn’t think this was that kind of blog…

  37. 85: Just in Arizona. As a Padre he was +9.2.

  38. re 83: Just to be clear JMI(like any development company) is barred by law from profiting from the resale of land in a redevelopment area if public funds are used and no improvements have been done directly to the land.

    Basically JMI profits from the real estate that it owns but nothing else: think the Omni, the Metroploitan Condos, Hotel Solamar and the water treatment/power plant in east village…..eventually Ballpark Village is going to be their big cash cow even with its recent redesign

  39. GY, do you think DeJesus’s defense will work at Petco? He’s sort of a tweener offensively, but with a good base skill set. He’s coming off a down year and the Royals are shopping him. Does a Ramos / Geer caliber of prospect get it done?

  40. A quote from Steve Garvey at the Joe Torre PC: “He’s a quality individual. I played against him, always respected him. He should make a difference. God willing, he’ll be able to elevate us to the postseason and help us win a world championship.” — former Dodgers star Steve Garvey.

    W T F is his No. 6 doing in CF at Petco?

  41. What are the chances that Adrian Gonzales will work out in the off season with a trainer like the one LT uses? I really believe if he improved his core conditioning he would be an elite (top 10) level player. While he is very good now, great hands, but he is a little soft, will he follow TG and gain 5 lbs a year and shorten his career?

  42. #90: Thanks for the links.

    #91: I haven’t seen him play, but the defensive numbers, inasmuch as we can trust those, are not discouraging.

    In a post I’ve been sitting on for, like, a month because I can’t figure out how best to organize it, I found a few things about DeJesus:

    – He had a .910 RZR in ’07, tied with Melky Cabrera for fourth in MLB among CF qualifiers (behind Andruw, Granderson, Beltran)
    – He was tied with Crisp four fourth in UZR, behind Sizemore, Granderson, and Rowand.
    – Using good ol’ fashioned RF, he was about middle of the pack in ’07, behind Beltran and just ahead of Torii Hunter/Andruw.

    From an offensive standpoint, it’s my belief that the Padres can most afford to sacrifice power (they were second in MLB in road homers last year) and least afford to sacrifice OBP (only the D’backs and White Sox were worse in ’07), which aligns well with DeJesus’ skill set.

    Here’s my little writeup from that post (which I may get around to publishing one day):

    DeJesus intrigues me. He is in his prime, possesses good on-base skills, and reportedly plays solid defense. He doesn’t run much or possess home-run power, so he might not be as sexy as some other center fielders. I have no idea what the Royals think of DeJesus or how available he might be — he’s not exactly someone to build around but the guy has skills — sort of Mark Kotsay lite.

    I don’t think the guy is a stud, but I think he’d be a good fit for this club in this park. If we could get him for Ramos or Geer, I’d say we should jump all over it.

  43. Buster Olney has a “Maddux, Padres agree to $10M deal, sources say” brief on ESPN.com.

  44. so you guys are saying Ramos or Geer for DeJesus? I was talking to a Royals fan today — they’ve got nothing behind DeJesus in CF (only Gathright).

    I mean, from a Pads standpoint, I’m all over that, but do you really think that’s enough?

  45. #96: Well… it probably shouldn’t be enough. Then again, I’d probably give both to get him.

  46. By the way, in response to all the red sox guy’s posts about dumping lugo and crisp on us:

    Any trade involving KG should not have the centerpieces be Lugo and/or Crisp. It should start with Buchholz or John Lester, THEN talk about throw-in turds.

    I’ve had the pleasure of seeing Lugo all year — he’s terrible. That .240 he hit would be .185 at Petco. Crisp was wonderful defensively this year but he absolutely sucked offensively all of last year, and the first two months of ’07.

  47. 97

    Both, yes. I’d do that. What about something like Ramos/Venable for DeJesus? That might be a little too much, but I’m falling in love with DeJesus’s OBP right now.

    He also scored 101 times for a crappy team.

  48. 94: Excellent argument, Geoff. You’ve convinced me. According to Cot’s, he’s signed through 2010 for $10.8 million, with a $6 million team option for 2011.