| time: | 7:05 p.m. PT |
| tv: | 4SD |
| sp: | Justin Germano (6-7, 4.24) vs Brandon Webb (14-8, 2.63) |
| pre: | Padres.com, B-R.com |
It is March and black dust falls out of the books
Soon I will be gone
– W.S. Merwin
Actually, it is August and if the Padres can get any production out of the back end of their rotation, soon they will be headed to the playoffs. Justin Germano gets the call Tuesday night, and he’s scuffling a bit: 0-4, 5.54 ERA over his past seven starts. Germano also has an ERA two full runs higher at home than on the road, which is weird because the batting lines against him are nearly identical.
Brandon Webb, meanwhile, surrendered two runs his last time out against the Brewers. Those were the first runs he’d given up in over a month.
Here’s hoping for a miracle. Go Padres!
157 Comments
Padres are below .500 (45-46) in games that B(l)um has played in …
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/PlayerWL.py?StartDate=04%2F01%2F2007&EndDate=08%2F27%2F2007&GameType=all&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=29
I don’t hate B(l)um … this is just a fact.
And that list makes it clear why Mike Thompson’s 2007 is much less appealing than his 2006 was …
Webb is a good pitcher … and lately he’s been *HOT* … but I remember this game where he got beat by the Padres …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=261001129
Do *that* again!
Was that a smile from KG when Jenga flipped him the ball?
#3: Yes, I do believe it was.
That also seemed like a tough error to hang on Bard. Conor Jackson is such a good hitter…
I feel like that’s the first time that I’ve seen KG smile…. I wonder if his head he was saying “that Milton, he’s such a riot”…..
drat, that should have read “in his head”…
Blum is hitting .324/.387/.441 in 111 at-bats as a second baseman.
He is terrible as a pinch-hitter, third baseman and shortstop.
Or maybe that just means he has been good lately.
He is hitting .299/.371/.409 in 124 at-bats since the All-Star break.
#7: Blum’s home/road splits still blow me away. How can a guy have an OPS more than 300 points higher at Petco?
Bud Black and plate ump chirping early…
Great, we have an asshole umpire tonight. This is not going to bode well.
Geoff – Your stats for Germano will only ever be in your dreams…
Shove that in the ump’s face!
Attaboy, Khalil! Byrnes almost made another ridiculous catch there.
#11: LOL, I keep doing that. Can’t we just give him those numbers already?
Grant is talking about the length of Byrne’s glove. Doesn’t matter. The ball has to transfer from the glove to the other hand to be considered a catch.
re: 8
Not sure, other than small sample size. Dmitri Young hits about 100 points high at RFK Stadium. Maybe hitters with less power have more room for their dinky hits in Petco or RFK.
Geoff, were you at the game last night?
#1 Since starting at 36-23 the Padres have been playing sub .500 ball (35-36) – Why the fall ? Blum is at second ?
18:
Hard to make that case, since he has played better than Marcus Giles, other than Giles’ first month.
#17: Yessir, and I’ve got the pix to prove it:
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/08/padres-beat-snakes-peavy-breaks-record.html
On another note, CY will make his start Thursday.
Germano’s pitches have good movement tonight. Heres hoping we continue to hit Webb and Germano avoids a “big” inning.
#20: Just wondering what the crowd reaction was when Milty hit the HR to right off of the fencing. Looked like MB really wasn’t sure.
#18: Most of the trouble came in July, when the Padres went 10-16 thanks in large part to a staff ERA of 4.80 that month.
23: Exactly. Trying to blame Blum for that rough patch is worse than blaming Barrett.
#22: I still haven’t seen any evidence one way or the other whether that ball left yard. We all thought the scoreboard operator made a mistake in sounding the horn and were surprised at the home run call, but I never saw where the ball landed.
#24: Wait, I thought we’d determined that everything is Barrett’s fault…
That was not a strike!!!!!!!!!
Milton is gonna flip soon.
Jenga strikes out, but gets style points for snapping the bat over his knee.
25: It definitely was a home run, they replayed it probably 10 times on CH 4 and on Baseball tonight.
26: Oh ya, I forgot, well hopefully he just stays on the “DL” then haha
This is probably one of Germano’s best starts. However, I don’t think he’ll get past the 5th inning.
OT: MB snapping his bat over his thigh is call for Wally to reprimand him for unessesarily exposing him to injury. I know he’s pissed, but we are to close to the play-offs.
The umpire is killing our offense. Webb didn’t throw one strike to Giles and struck him out looking.
Leaning into a pitch isn’t supposed to get you a free base.
I think Black is gonna get tossed tonight.
That’s terrible. The batter really needs to make some effort to avoid the pitch.
#35: Agreed. That is so minor league.
#30: I don’t doubt it; I just haven’t had a chance to watch the game on TiVo yet.
31: What is he going to do? Milton is intense I dont think Wally slapping his wrist is going to change it.
That ball was hit to slow to KG to get the DP.
37: Gotcha… what was amazing is that the umpires got the call right so quick. I couldnt tell is it was gone or not till they showed it in slo-mo
#38: But as a coach, he should have a heart to heart with him. We don’t need him on the DL again.
And that horrible decision on the HBP comes back to bite us.
Man, Justin Upton is fast.
On another note, why do the 4SD guys keep pimping Arizona’s Chris Young for ROY? He’s going to be real good, but the guy has a sub-.300 OBP.
43: Young has been a below average hitter this year and that’s before taking into consideration that he plays in a severe hitters’ park.
43: Who else is there besides Ryan Braun?
Again, I’m going to defer to post #31 concerning Germano.
#45: Troy Tulowitzki, although he should get dinged a little for his sub-700 OPS on the road.
Let’s see if Webb continues to get pitches outside, inside and low out of the zone called strikes. Too bad Germano isn’t getting that same zone.
Germano looks pretty good. That HBP was terrible, but he is keeping us in the game thats all he needs to as the 5th starter
Not to praise the opposition but the Snakes new uniforms are an upgrade to those old purple pinstripes. I wish the Padres could wear their old uni’s more.
Randy Johnson is the all-time leader in wins for the Diamondbacks with 107. You mean, their top winner has more wins than ours (Eric Show, 100)? Ugh.
The umpire actually seems to be coming around in this AB.
Chris Young gets some notice for ROY for his 28 HR and 21 SB and for the fact that he’s been up the whole season and plays CF. He doesn’t really have a shot but he could finish in the top 3. The funny thing is that due to Braun’s awful defense and the fact that he hasn’t been up the whole season, the best (taking offense and defense together) has been Troy Tulowitzki, mainly because he’s the best fielding SS in the NL (by both BP and UZR).
49: Too bad he’s the fourth starter, huh?
For the announcers to act like their is a Rookie of the Year race is silly. Braun should be unanimous.
41: No, he shouldn’t. Players are what they are. He is intense. If he turns that off, maybe he wouldn’t be slugging .600. And why would Joyner say something? It’s not about his batting stance.
47: Those are the 3 front runners I am guessing. You have to take defense into consideration as well. Chris Young has been good as far as I know, Ryan Braun has been horrible, not sure about Tulo. I heard some stat on Chris young the other day that like 18 of his HR’s have tied the game or given them the lead.
Defense has to be accounted for, but it’s not nearly as important. Braun’s offense makes him an MVP candidate, forget about ROY.
#56: Tulo has been excellent at short by most accounts. My favorite stat on Young is his line with men on base: .192/.254/.338.
Another name to throw out there as a possible CF for next year (assuming we don’t resign Cameron) is Rocco Baldelli. He’s only 25 and it looks like BJ Upton is their CF of the future. How about that for a family? Two starting CF in the majors in 2007, one who just turned 23 and the other just turned 20. Too bad Justin didn’t graduate from high school in 2004 — although the Padres probably wouldn’t have signed him anyway!
54: Ya true… with CY coming back is Hensley going to get back in the rotation? He seems to be our best option by far, then germano would be the “5th” starter i guess
#50: Red is a lot more intimidating than purple and green. Maybe there is some psych to that. Notice that we all like the Charger powder blues, but they seem to loose more often wearing them. Things that make you go Hmmm…?
#50: I’d like to see the W-L stats of when the Padres where the camoflage.
wear
We’re so terrible at holding runners that we should stop calling pitchouts. It’s a waste of a pitch and it looks bad.
Pitchout is a free ball. That’s it.
#65: Well, some teams can catch baserunners stealing on a pitchout, but we’re not one of them.
Nice damage control that inning…
Nice play by Kouz
61 & 62: If the camoflage helps them win I’m all for it – although those things are pretty gnarly. I like the honoring of the miltary though. You’re right about the snake’s red uni’s being more intimidating.
Yeah, that inning could’ve been a lot worse. Nice walk Germano!! Naked BP couldn’t come thru.
Another good play by Kouz…
Another nice play by Kouz. I’ve seen some criticism of his defense, but I’m not sure if it’s warranted.
Branyan was designated yesterday for assignment by the Phils. I am not sure why his OPS was 1.111.
According to Gameday, Germano got squeezed on at least one pitch to both Webb and Young. C’mon Blue!!
niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice
Cammy goes long ball to left!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dong dong dong
I almost posted please, but didn’t want to jinx it.
NICE CAM!
#71: I would love to see a monthly breakdown of his defensive numbers. Kouz seems like a streaky defender.
Nice HR by Cammy.
Cameron got hot last year at this time !!! If we make the same run this year as we did last year, we win 94 games.
This are getting awfully exciting around here !!
I think Joyner is helping our hitters. Maybe I’m just saying that cuz Wally World is my favorite player of all time.
40 more runs scored in August by the Padres than in July
So they can get 3 runs of reigning Cy Young winner and the hottest pitcher in baseball since the AS Break (9 runs in 8 GS before tonight and an ERA over a run below Peavy’s 1.04 to 2.15) but they can get shutout by Chad Durbin, get shut down by Kyle Kendrick in Philly? What the hell? Talk about playing to the level of your competition….
82: Only explaination to me is that we have seen Webb more than most teams, we had never seen Durbin or Kendrick before. We always seem to play to the level of the starter. We hit well against good starters bad against bad ones.
Great approaches this inning. Let’s get more.
Nice KG!
Not exactly a Webb Gem there.
78 – Geoff, that’s a good idea. I would chase it down if I knew where to find the data…I’ll look into this.
Wow, Webb screwed that play up something fierce. The DBacks might need some Pitchers Fielding Practice, tomorrow afternoon.
Do you bunt Kouz?
Melvin is gone.
MLB.tv lag can be a bummer sometimes haha
I knew somebody was gonna get tossed tonight. Just thought it would be Buddy to go first.
I cant believe how low attendance is this series so far.
That was a quick trigger. Melvin musta called him a [insert preferred Deadwood profanity here]…
Unfortunately they don’t have fielding stats on espn.com by month but Kouz is last in fielding %, next to last in range factor and 2nd to last in Zone Rating (Atkins is last in both, Cabrera is next to last in ZR). The Padres are 3rd in the NL in Ground Out to Fly Out Percentage so that’s not throwing off his stats. So it certainly appears that Kouz isn’t a good defensive player.
Shakespeare!
Good things happen when you string together a bunch of hits. Glenn Hoffman should have sent Khalil there.
OT … anybody else notice what Linebrink tonight …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270828116
… BS #7 … fyi.
Bardo just keeps hitting w/RISP
No fielding splits by month on MLB.com either. Those sinkers that Webb is throwing that are up and in are nasty…..
Hey now…
After that knock, Bard is now hitting .330/.505/.622 with RISP this year. Wow.
96: It looked like he was sending him, i think him and KG got mixed up
Are the fans goin’ nuts? I think I would be … what a rally!
101: Actually Geoff he is hitting somewhere over .400
#97: Sorry to see Liney struggle, but it’s pretty clear that we moved him at the right time.
#104: My bad, it should read .410/.505/.622.
I hope we are watching the Dbacks season implode.
106: Thats over 100 PA’s too so a decent sample. Although his power numbers are a bit down, his clutch hitting is right on pace, actually better, than last year.
The Padres are doing well, but the ump is has called high and off the plate strikes against OG and two other pads this inning.
Damn umpire called ball four a strike.
Who’d have thunk this tonight? I was expecting an automatic loss. WOW!
And Cameron strikes out swinging at a ball out of the zone after ball two was called strike two.
More off the plate called strikes…
How bad was strike 3 looking by OG?
Hate to leave ‘em loaded, but scoring four runs and getting Webb out of the game is good.
To bake Webb is an incredible boost for Jake’s shot at the CYA.
Name I didn’t see mentioned in the earlier NL ROY discussion was Pence. Know he missed a lot of time, but he’s still doing enough with both bat & glove to be mentioned. Braun has the shiny numbers and is a lock at the moment, but Tulo and Pence are next. Young ain’t in the mix… at least not right now.
Nice inning.
114: It looked like a borderline pitch. it was something you fight off with 2 strikes for sure.
#114: Pitch looked inside, but Cederstrom has been calling it all night. I don’t care for his strike zone, but at least he’s been consistent.
94 – thanks very much. There aren’t enough data points in the sample to do a proper statistical analysis, but at a quick glance, Kouz is well below the mean, and by that I mean one or two standard deviations below the mean. Interesting. I’m curious now; I’ll look into this a little more closely.
#117: Good call, dprat, on Pence. Hey, and nice to hear from ya!
Maybe Giles should start sleeping in a hotel room or something. He went from a aggressive power hitter in Cincinnati to a pathetic, hoping pitches are called balls to get a walk hitter in San Diego. What is it about Petco that totally screws him up so badly? He’s a completely different hitter. He doesn’t even swing aggressively at home so of course he has no power.
Is this really a Brocail situation?
122: Pathetic is hardly the right word.
That was a 9 iron shot.
123: Jinx.
Thanks, Geoff, nice to have a few minutes to drop in on the IGD. Life has been intruding lately… damn life. Hope to be around at least a little bit more in the upcoming exciting weeks.
On the ROY, Young is 6th in the NL among rookies in VORP. And four of the guys ahead of him have at least 100 fewer PA.
OK, maybe not pathetic but certainly punchless (but aren’t those pretty close?) He can still draw walks but that’s pretty much it. There are 118 players in the NL with 150 PA’s at home this season, Giles is 108th (ahead of Loretta, Kearns, Ensberg, F.Lopez, Durham, LoDuca, Schneider, Vizquel, NOG, and Bard). For a guy that used to hit 30+ HR a year, that’s not too good. He just hit 5 in a series a few weeks ago so he still has some power left, or was that just a total fluke?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?sort=slugAvg&split=33&league=nl&season=2007&seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minpa=150&hand=a&pos=all&qual=false&count=79
129: He’s 37th (3rd among RF) in OBP at home among those with at least 150 PA and in PetCo, that’s pretty good.
Bell taking advantage of the big outside corner…
129: That series was in Cincinnati. Easy explanation. He is a fine leadoff man.
Speaking of Bard he has some totally odd splits:
Home: 192/302/281
Away: 349/411/490
vs R: 231/316/329
vs L: 380/462/544
Empty:200/279/284
RnrOn:350/436/500
RISP: 402/500/610
Wow, B(l)um got lucky with that one!
I’m not saying he’s a fine leadoff man but that’s not exactly why they signed him to a big extension. My point is that he becomes a totally different hitter in Petco, not even trying to hit for power and seeming to take more pitches. I can’t find stats for taking pitches home vs. road but he does seem to take more at home as he walks and strikeouts about 19% more at home than on the road. They aren’t paying him $9m to take walks and slap singles the opposite way 81 games a year.
Ring the bells.
Does anyone remember the first game when they played Hells Bells for Hoffman? I think it was 1998 against Houston – mid June or July, but I could be wrong.
136 – 1998 it was:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20040419/news_lz1s19majmo.html
To quote: Death
135: They are paying him$9 million, even if he goes 0-for-the-season. So why not put players in a position to succeed?
I’m sure the Padres nor Giles knew he would be this type of player.
You have to look at what a player can do for you, not what he can’t do for you.
#136: I thought it was that double header that same year against the Brewers on a Saturday or Sunday.
“Taxes”
Thanks, KC.
Wow, Trevor has lost it.
“Hoffman”
I guess my point is that someone needs to get Giles to be more aggressive at home. 4 players have 0 HR at home: Giles, Pierre, Willie Harris and Aaron Miles. That’s unacceptable.
Webb got cooked. Padres stepped up. Let’s shoot for the play-offs and Jake getting the CYA!
What a sweet, sweet win. One game back, even in the loss column.
More aggressive could mean less of a player overall. His average and walks make him a valuable hitter, better than any other on team besides Bradley.
Down on the Farm … McAnulty with HR #4 tonight …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2007_08_28_poraaa_tucaaa_1&t=g_box&did=milb
… and Myrow with another 3 hits … I’m actually going to be *very* curious to see him get a few September ABs …
Storm boyz doin’ their thang …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2007_08_28_lesafa_visafa_1&t=g_box&did=milb
… scoring 15 runs in the first 6 innings
Nice win; horrendous looking call on KK’s sacrifice, but I’ll take it. Kinda offsets the home plate calls.
I like Maddux vs. Owings, but tonight’s match up could not have favored AZ more. OK, if we put Stauffer out there, yes.
Owings has some some odd splits: pitches better at Chase than the road; let’s hope his road woes (6.06 ERA) continue.
Guys,
Never been to baseball game before so went along today. It’s a great game. Why do people boo Kouzmanoff? What did he do to warrant that? Can’t find anything online.
152: They aren’t boing him. They are yelling KOOOOOZ
*booing* is that a word?!?
Ah, that makes a bit more sense!
Thanks!
152: The fans are saying KOOOOOOOOZ not BOOOOOOO
156: My bad that reply wasnt there when i wrote that