| time: | 12:05 p.m. PT |
| tv: | none |
| sp: | Justin Germano vs Aaron Cook |
You really do not see a lot of guys with Aaron Cook’s abysmal strikeout rates stick around in the big leagues these days. It’s a credit to Cook that he’s able to make it work, but kids, don’t try this at home. Unless your name is Justin Germano, and even then…
98,99 – Maybe you’re right – to this day I still wonder why the Padres cut bench player Rob Deer in 1996. Give me a solo shot from Branyan every two weeks or so and it will be acceptable if he hits.197
101: You know batting average is the least important of the three standard rate stats (BA/OBP/SLG), right?
102: Right. It’s why some don’t think Tony Gwynn deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. Batting average and subsequent batting titles don’t mean a whole lot I guess. Gwynn rarely walked and didn’t have a particularly high SLG. In fact, Russell the Muscle’s OPS was pretty close to Gwynn’s. You’ve changed my whole perception of Branyan. I see a lot of value in his his 118 homeruns even though he is a lifetime .229 hitter and even though he amazingly only has 293 rbi’s in 2000+ plate appearances.
102: It becomes a bit more important when the player hits sub .200. You cant just ignore batting average. I like Manyan. You always have that feeling like he is going to hit one out. That said, it gets to a point to where he can be a very frustrating player to watch. A solo shot when we are down by 4 or more runs just isnt that valuable, and it inflates an OPS. He is a good bat off the bench because he has game changing power, but a singles hitter that hits in the clutch, with RISP, and drives in runs can be more valuable. The problem I have with OBP, and OPS to an extent is that old saying that “a walk is as good as it hit” is just not true. A walk doesnt score a guy from second, or get a guy from 1st to 3rd.
This is my opinion on the matter. What stats people find useful in their evaluations is up to them. There are many ways to evaluate a player. Looking at numbers is just one of them.
103: Dude Gwynn had a career .847 OPS. That is actually pretty damn good. He slugged .449 and had a career .388 OBP. The reason Gwynn didnt walk alot is because he hit, A LOT. .388 is a great OBP.
103: Nobody is arguing that Branyan is as good as Tony Gwynn was. Also, nobody is suggesting that Gwynn isn’t a Hall of Famer. You’d have to be an idiot to suggest that. You sure showed that strawman who was boss.
Gwynn actually had an above average OBP before accounting for walks, hit by pitches, etc. But seriously if Gwynn had hit .338/.338/.338 instead of .338/.388/.459, there wouldn’t be anyone with half a brain arguing to include him in the Hall.
What my post in 102 meant was that batting average doesn’t give you a complete picture. I mean would you honestly rather have a guy batting .280/.310/.400 than say a guy batting .200/.330/.440?
104: A walk isn’t as good as a hit. That’s why a measure like wOBA is so good (it’s based on linear weights).
#103: Branyan is similar to Bubba Trammell, Ron Kittle, and Henry Rodriguez in career OPS+.
Gwynn is similar to Rod Carew, Paul Waner, Wade Boggs, and Roberto Clemente using the same metric.
106: If the .200 hitter is getting it done w/RISP then of course you take him, but if the .280 hitter is getting it done w/RISP and driving in more runs, then you take him. For the most part Manyan has trouble w/RISP. Again, I like him off the bench, I would just rather he doesnt start. Your OPS doesnt make up for your defense in his case.
Branyan is fifth on the team in wOBA, btw. Bradley leads the team and is followed in order by Gonzalez, Giles and Cameron.
Sandy Alderson was on XX this afternoon. When they asked him about the 2nd base situation and bringing in Loretta he said they aren’t going to make a move just to make a move, it would have to be a significant upgrade. He also said any move they make (Linebrink included) would be geared toward winning this year.
More than anything he was livid over the approaches taken by the hitters this afternoon. He went so far as to single out Barrett for not having drawn a single walk since joining the team. One game isn’t going to trigger a move but I think today’s debacle pushes the team in that direction.
Oh, he also said the outfield is set, there’s no one there that can obviously be improved.
107: wOBA is a bit too much numbers wise for me, and I also dont agree on some one the weights. How do you weight HBP higher than BB or reaching on and error higher than a single? Its better than traditional OBP but who makes the rules? Again this is my opinion. I dont dive too deep into numbers because its not exactly how I like to evaluate.
109: Branyan has actually hit significantly better with runners on than with none on. (.222/.390/.467 compared to .189/.286/.419)
That said, when you break down the numbers like that you just end up with even smaller samples that mean next to nothing.
111. Interesting, because they Linebrink trade does not seem to improve us significantly this year, where as Loretta would by possibly improving 2B and definitely improving the bench.
He is right to be upset about Barrett. He hasnt really been an upgrade at all over Bard, but drawing a walk today would not have scored 8 runs. I agree we cant really improve the OF much.
Who sets the rules? The weights are based on the average run value of each event. From The Book:
“These are all the types of events in baseball, along with how often they occurred and how many runs were scored from the instant before that event occurred to the end of the inning. For example, there were 21,026 HR in the years in our data. From the time the HR was hit, to the end of the inning, 40,838 runs scored, for an average of 1.942 runs scored by team per HR hit by player. Now, go to the bottom of the chart. Once an out is recorded on a hit ball, you can expect to score 0.240 runs to the end of the inning.”
114: Well, perhaps they believe the guy who will replace Linebrink on the 25-man roster will be an improvement. That really won’t take too much as Linebrink’s peripherals are not good this year.
Using my own highly advanced set of metrics, I deem Branyan as the player 22nd most responsible for the Padres failings.
Ken Rosenthal is saying the Padres have interest in bringing Klesko back. Do we need another left handed bat? At least he’ll take some pitches.
113: But the RISP numbers is an important sample. I dont see where you get that. If the game we are down by 3 or less w/RISP runs (Clutch) Branyan doesnt hit above .200, in fact his OPS really doesnt get above .700. To me this is more important. But either way, he is a bench player and it doesnt matter all that much.
The most interesting thing to me is he is overall a much better hitter against LHP (SMALL SAMPLE), but all his HRs are against RHP.
116: He used the word significant upgrade. I dont see Thatcher being that significant, then again he could be what Cla was last year. Dont get me wrong, I love the trade.
115: Ok, thats just not something I would personally dive into. If thats the case though, it seems like the weights should be evaluated from team to team as a single from the Padres is less likely to score a run as a single from the Phillies. Just my opinion.
119: The logic given for the trade was that they feel Thatcher and Meredith and possibly some other guys in the pen will ultimately be more valuable than Linebrink this year and the two prospects will strengthen the system down the road. So it’s a win now/build the future combo.
118: Being important doesn’t make a sample inherently predictive.
117: Hahaha, I was actually making that list to myself the other day. Using just the 25 man roster, going from least responsible for the failings (measuring performance relative to expectations going into the year), I’d go Bell, Young, Hoffman, Bradley, K. Cameron, Branyan. If you include people off of the 25 man roster, then that probably pushes Branyan down to right about 22nd.
120: The point of the metric is context neutrality.
121: Yes thats what I said haha. I said possibly they see him doing what Cla did last year and that I love the trade. I just dont see it as a significant upgrade looking at it right row. A minor leauger with no ML exp. over Linebrink does not seem significant, but it could be and the other 2 guys are great pick ups.
Well I’m just glad the trade went down today. It takes our minds off of today’s embarrassment.
118: No it doesnt, but its a stat I like to consider.
120: Sure, but that doesnt make it entirely correct.
126: Yes it does, hopefully it doesnt make the clubhouse sour though. We are playing like the worst team in MLB right now, we dont need it to get worse. I hope we turn it around this series in Houston. It would be nice to bring Loretta and Jennings home with us haha.
112: I believe HBP get more value than a walk because they generally occur in more critical moments in the game… leading to more runs. At least that’s what I remember reading. Reaching on an error is higher than reaching on a single because of the advancement after an error, I think.
What do you guys think are the Padre’s needs now? Obviously they need offense, but where can they upgrade. The bench could use help, and people have talk about Loretta and Burke, both good options. It also looks like we need another starter. Stauffer could get the call, but I dont know if I am confident with him. Jason Jennings seems to be talked about, and I read Scott Olsen is on the block. What are your guys takes on the moves so far, and what and who do you think we cang do/get to improve?
128: Will Carroll reported the other day that Jennings isn’t actually fully healthy and recovered from the arm troubles that sent him to the DL. It sounded like this could be a thing that shuts him down the rest of the year, or at least severely limits his effectiveness. If the Padres training staff does its due diligence on Jennings and thinks he’ll be 100% healthy for the stretch drive, then he would be a good acquisition.
130: Scott Olsen recently got arrested and tasered for drunk driving and refusing to stop for police. Sounds like a perfect acquisition for the Padres!
An upgrade to the starting pitching would be nice. A decent second baseman would also be nice. Other than that, any upgrade would likely be marginal and cost way too much. A new rumor on mlbtraderumors mentions Wandy Rodriguez, who could be an good trade target. He’s got great K and BB numbers this year, but his ERA doesn’t reflect that at all. The price for him might be the price of a mediocre starter like he’s been in the past, but if this step up in peripherals this year is real, he could be a good number 3 pitcher. His xFIP is 3.94.