IGD: Padres vs Cardinals (13 May 07)

Sun, May 13, 2007Ballhype: hype it up!
by Geoff Young

first pitch: 1:05 p.m. PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Justin Germano (0-0, 1.50 ERA) vs Anthony Reyes (0-5, 5.03 ERA)

Happy Mothers’ Day! Padres need to win one for the madres…

Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.

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53 Responses to “IGD: Padres vs Cardinals (13 May 07)”

  1. jay Says:

    Justin pitched remarkably well against the Braves; let’s hope this is not a fluke against the weaker hitting Cardinals.

    Last night was horrid. Hard to tell whether Looper was very, very on or we suck very, very much. Everyone looked pretty lame against him, so that makes me think he had it going. One bad inning by CY, no help from the D, and ballgame. Yucko.

    Let’s hope they get to Reyes.

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  2. Brian Wilmer Says:

    There was a bit in the Dayton Daily News about Wayne Krivsky accompanying the Reds on their West Coast trip, and the standard “don’t make anything out of this” bunk.

    Considering the struggles of both the Dodgers and the Friars at third (despite LaRoche’s doing okay since being called up), anyone think he’s trying to move Encarnacion? I’m not sure they’re ready to give up on him yet, but it is something to ponder.

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  3. Turbine Dude Says:

    OG should have scored on that.

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  4. Turbine Dude Says:

    3: Sorry NOG

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  5. Steve from Boston Says:

    Are we ready to drop the “dge” from Crudge yet?

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  6. Turbine Dude Says:

    BROBI!!!

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  7. Geoff Young Says:

    Wow, great sequence to Pujols!

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  8. JP Says:

    Germano looks incredibly sharp. He should under no circumstances come out of this rotation.

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  9. Brian Wilmer Says:

    Good to hear the clowns on the FSN Midwest crew mention the fact that Germano hasn’t given up a hit about 1246 times in the last five minutes. It’s the same thing the Pirates’ radio crew did last night when Chuck James was working on a no-hit game.

    Baseball fans aren’t that dumb, guys.

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  10. Geoff Young Says:

    Nice to turn by NOG on the DP. I didn’t think they had a chance to get Encarnacion.

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  11. Steve from Boston Says:

    9: The Padres announcers weren’t being very discreet either.

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  12. Geoff Young Says:

    Ah, the downside of that stupid third-to-first move. Thanks very much!

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  13. Steve from Boston Says:

    That count as an RBI for OG?

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  14. Geoff Young Says:

    Damn, nice play by Miles. I thought that was going to fall in to drive home the run.

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  15. clyde Says:

    D’ya think Crede could be pried away from the White Sox?

    He’s a good glove as well.

    Just thinkin’

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  16. Steve from Boston Says:

    Okay he can stay

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  17. Geoff Young Says:

    #8: Outstanding performance by Germano. With their commitment to Wells, though, I don’t see the Padres keeping the kid around when Hensley returns.

    #15: Possibly. Their biggest weaknesses right now are in the outfield and the bullpen. Maybe something along the lines of Sledge, Linebrink, and a prospect? I still think Kouz will snap out of this, so I’m not sure I’d be willing to pay that much…

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  18. LaMar Says:

    I’m here at the game. I’m pretty sure that the crowd doing the wave cost Cruz that ar bat. he stepped out once, just as it was going down the 3b side. I hate the wave.

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  19. Geoff Young Says:

    #18: Roger that. The wave stinks.

    On another note, Khalil just tossed his bat aside in disgust after striking out with the bases loaded to end the inning. Some people will enjoy the display of emotion; I continue to prefer a base hit.

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  20. LynchMob Says:

    McAnulty with HR #1 today … http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....p;did=milb … Stansberry playing SS made 2 errors …

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  21. Steve from Boston Says:

    Sweet! Great game. Love this new pitcher guy they found.

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  22. Geoff Young Says:

    And that’s the series. Another great start by Germano. Padres are now 20-18; Pythag WPct is .564. Pads were 22-16 after 38 games in ‘06.

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  23. LynchMob Says:

    21 … re: “new pitcher guy they found” … they traded him away for not much to the Reds … I think the Reds cut him … and we picked him back up … clearly, “scouting” is not an exact science …

    Which reminds me … Cust update: a double and walk today …

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  24. Bruce Says:

    I know two games doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, but you have to be impressed with what Germano has done this season between AAA and the Padres. As far as I am concerned, they should just keep him in the rotation when Hensley comes off the DL. Hensley can then get his stuff together in the pen and eventually replace Wells. Germano has been too good this season to make it through waivers a second time. With our lack of starting pitching depth in AAA, we can’t afford to try and sneak him through. As others have pointed out, Michael Thompson is in full meltdown mode at the moment in Portland and shouldn’t be counted on anything for a while.

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  25. LynchMob Says:

    23 … OK, Jack Cust is really starting to get on my nerves … he also hit a 3-run walk-off HR today … that’s 6 HRs and 14 RsBI since we traded him to the A’s … yow! It will be interesting to see what the A’s do when Piazza returns … maybe trade him back to us for their player-to-be-named-later? :-)

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  26. Brett Says:

    Maybe the pitching desperate Yankee’s will have interest in Hensley and we could pry a struggling Bobby Abreu from them. Germano could then fit into the rotation. I’m not sure we can just demote Germano without him being placed on waivers where anybody could pick him up. Also, look for Wells to possibly have “forearm tightness” or a “strained quad” as soon as Hensley comes back so the Padres can by themselves a few more starts to make a decision

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  27. NYCPadre Says:

    We already have a relatively light-hitting, lefty-batting RF whose greatest skill is getting on base (not to mention that Abreu stinks right now and just had his first walk since April 29th).

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  28. Rich Campbell Says:

    No matter how much he hits for the A’s, Jack Cust never would have fit in San Diego… He can’t hit without getting the AB’s and he can’t get the AB’s in the NL because he can’t field.

    Of course, if we knew he was gonna do this we would have got more for him…

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  29. Stephen Says:

    28: Just keep telling us all that. ;-)

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  30. Krs1 Says:

    What the hell is going on with Jack Cust? It’s getting a little out of hand at this point!

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  31. Phantom Says:

    19: I noticed that too. I was at the game, by the way. I was a little suprised to see him fling his equipment down, but also kind of glad.

    Like you, I would have preferred a base hit though.

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  32. Geoff Young Says:

    Cust is becoming a great story; he might even the next Kevin Maas. Good for Cust, good for the A’s. Rich covers the rest of it pretty well.

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  33. Marsh Says:

    Yeah, Cust has a somewhat respectable 1.54 OPS. ….. to contrast, Geoff Blum has a 0.588 OPS. Niiiiiiiiice.

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  34. JP Says:

    I love this “there is no room for Cust in the NL because he can’t field” paradigm. Are you kidding me ? You wouldn’t stick Cust in Left Field if he hit 30 homers from May to October ? Cust ha started 2 game in the outfield and handled himself decently. Sledge is hitting .203 and is average at best as a fielder. He has average speed. Strikes out too much and if given 400-500 AB’s would hit 15-20 homers tops. What does Sledge do really that excites the Padres and its “homer” talk show hosts on the late night Post Game show ? What do Cust do possibly do defensively that would offset 30 bombs for this “popgun” offense ?

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  35. John Conniff Says:

    34. There was a little bit more to the Cust “can’t field” theory - I do love how this demand for Cust is coming after he has been traded and donig well..:). (1) Both McAnulty and Sledge had better years than Cust in Portland last year and you can even make a good argument that Jon Knott did too with his 113 RBIs and 32 home runs - funny I don’t hear anyone arguing that the Padres made a “mistake” with letting him go to Baltimore. (2) Although he put up good numbers in Portland in ‘06, .293/.467/.549, he also struck out 124 times in 584 ABs, which was nearly once a game. The theory was that with Cust’s approach he would be go down against quality pitching - he ate up a lot of pitchers who weren’t as precise as MLB pitchers (3) You can’t really blame the Padres for not wanting to bring in the second coming of Ryan Klesko in LF (4) Finally every team in the major leagues had a chance to claim Cust when he was outrighted in spring training, no one picked him up.

    I’m happy for Cust who is a good guy, but he is also a ten year minor leaguer with a career MLB average of .222 on his fifth organization. If anything this reminds me of Shane Spencer a few years ago with the Yankees.

    He may have found the right home with the A’s, if anything getting a chance in the major leagues is as much about opportunity as it is talent. Remember on his personalized license plate in NJ it says “BRNDH”

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  36. Tom Waits Says:

    34: I agree with you in spirit if not in fervor. It’s not just Cust vs Sledge, though. Cust vs Cruz+Sledge will probably work out in our favor over the whole season. But I don’t see why Cust couldn’t come off the bench once per game when the pitcher leaves, then DH in the interleague games. Losing Cust doesn’t burn me. The idea that an NL team needs 12 pitchers and 2 backup middle infielders burns me.

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  37. Tom Waits Says:

    35: John, if you look through the comments you can see a number of people questioned the Cust deal when it happened. It’s not Monday morning quarterbacking. And if you’d look further back you’d see that at least one poster, me, was questioning the release of Knott when it happened. We spent the next few months trying to find a RH power hitter who could relieve Agon and play passable D in an OF corner.

    In what world is Cust’s 1016 OPS last year in Portland, with 30 bombs, worse than McAnulty’s 909/19 or Sledge’s 985/24? He had fewer AAA at-bats than McAnulty.

    I don’t want to speak for JP. My problem with the trade isn’t Cust specifically, but with the idea that a player like Cust has no role on an NL team. We’re already carrying at least 1 too many pitchers and 1 too many backup infielders. Whether the player’s name is Cust, McAnulty, Knott, or Eduardo Perez, we have a need for, and room for, someone to come off the bench late and swat a HR.

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  38. John Conniff Says:

    37. Tom if its the JP I believe from the ESPN boards who habitually questions every move after the fact it just becomes tiresome and annoying, which is one of the reasons I rarely visit there anymore.

    My apologies to you and others for your inclusion in that group.

    Sledge’s and McAnulty were considered better all around players than both Cust and Knott with comparable numbers, as it was explained to me when I asked the same question. Both were believed to project better as MLB players because they swing and miss much less than Cust and Knott in addition to coming off the bench better. Additionally both were better defensive players.

    Before you jump all over me on PMac’s defense, he’s an average defender with a good arm. Quite a few people in Portland who like Cust quite a bit didn’t believe he had the mobilty or the arm to play the OF in the major leagues, and every other NL GM agreed. Knott while having a good arm is not a gracefull OF or 1b.

    I think you can make a good argument for Knott, especially as a backup to AG and playing both corners. At Madfriars whenever we would bring him up to anyone in the organization there never was that much excitement. They were down on his defense, long swing and his ability to make consistent contact.

    He played well in 2 games this year in Baltimore, but isn’t having success Norfolk - .194/.325/.403.

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  39. The Fathers Says:

    Is there any reason to believe that Cust has the skill set to come off the bench late in a game and produce?

    Here are his career MLB PH numbers:

    4 for 23, O HR, 1 RBI, .519 OPS

    That is Geoff Blum-esque.

    I really think it is DH or bust for Cust, but I can’t say I am surprised at the visceral reaction his success in Oakland is having here. :)

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  40. The Fathers Says:

    Jack Cust is 4 for 23 as a major league PH, with a .519 OPS and no homers.

    I think John has the better of this argument. Cust is a DH.

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  41. John Conniff Says:

    36. I do agree with you that the Padres don’t need both Robles and Blum

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  42. The Fathers Says:

    sorry for the double post. It does not make my argument twice as compelling. ;)

    I agree with John that the Padres don’t need Blum. They never did.

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  43. Tom Waits Says:

    38: I have no problem with McAnulty’s defense. He just wasn’t the hitter Cust was last year. I wouldn’t ever project Knott as a starter, but what we’ve lacked all year is a guy who can hit LHP. Knott’s swing is short enough to handle the 87mph fastballs of many LOOGYs. Plus, he’s at least played quite a bit of first base.

    39 and 40: If you hadn’t already demonstrated an inability to question even the worst Padre moves, I’d be laughing. He’s had 23 major league pinch-hitting appearances. That tells you absolutely nothing. His offensive skill set coming off the bench is the same as it is when starting. Good eye at the plate, can struggle to make contact, hits the ball a long way when he does.

    There’s little difference between a DH and a NL pinch-hitter. Cust or a player like him doesn’t have to play the field to be valuable to the Padres.

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  44. Geoff Young Says:

    Running a little late this morning. Hope to have something up by 8:30 a.m. PT, possibly as late as 9. Hang tight…

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  45. John Conniff Says:

    43. Knott has played quite a bit of 1b in his career, just not that well. From everything I’ve seen of Knott and heard from others about him, he’s not the type of guy that can come off of the bench, which in my opinion is similiar to Xavier Nady and Adrian Gonzalez. His swing has quite a few moving parts and he needs regular playing time to be effective -which is what AGon’s problems were in Texas, if he doesn’t get regular time he’s not going to help the team much. He’s probably better off in LF than 1b.

    As you pointed out in an earlier post there wasn’t a huge difference between PMac’ OPS numbers and Cust’s, and Sledge in his last two month in Portland in ‘06 and in spring training killed the ball. I would have taken both of those guys over Cust because I think they are better overall players.

    In my opinion, I just would have been reluctant to bring up another Klesko clone whom I have questions about his ablity to make consistent contact, is a defensive liablity and is a left-handed pull hitter in PETCO.

    But Tom you definitely make a good point, and right now, based on what Cust has done with the A’s he does look like he could have helped the Padres; I just didn’t think so at the time. I’ve always thought he was a good hitter, he just needed to be in the right place at the right time. I don’t visit Ducksnorts that much so I must have missed your posts on him.

    Also I forgot to thank you for the nice words that you wrote about Madfriars Top 20 prospects rankings. They were appreciated.

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  46. Tom Waits Says:

    45: That was a great list you guys put together.

    Most bench guys are going to have some flaws. A guy like Mark Sweeney has a simple swing, but he’s had some terrible seasons as a pinch-hitter. Then he’ll bounce back. It’s more sample size than anything, IM.

    The team always seemed so focused on what Knott couldn’t do (hit hard stuff from RHP) that they overlooked what he could do. Most of our team can’t hit hard stuff from RHP. I’d rather have Knott give Agon a day off every three weeks than Blum or Branyan.

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  47. Tom Waits Says:

    IM=IMO.

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  48. John Conniff Says:

    46. Actually the guys I talked too were most focused on his defense, but what you wrote came up frequently too. You kind of wonder what would have happened if they planted him in LF this year, but they have gotten production out of Cruz.

    I always liked Knott and thought they should have given him a shot in 2004 over Terrence Long- but then again I was a big Ben Johnson fan and didn’t like the trade for Heath Bell.

    Bell’s been pitching well for the Padres and Johnson is back in AAA with New Orleans - so I can definitely be wrong.

    I’m glad you liked the list, but it was mainly for people who didn’t know the system as well as you do. The top 60 was a little more insider oriented and you may enjoy it more

    http://padres.scout.com/2/588093.html

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  49. The Fathers Says:

    Sorry, Tom, if you had the ability to understand the difference between PHing, which is 1 PA at best a night, and DHing, which is 4+ PA every night, I would be more than simply amused at your responses.

    You can fantasize about Cust being a PH on the Padres, but the odds of him doing it well are slim at best, and not borne out by his track record. Of course there will be a small sample size for PH, because it is an infrequent role.

    For a counterpoint, Geoff Blum was quite good at it in 2006, but has been miserable at it most of his career. There are very few Mark Sweeneys, Olmedo Saenzes, John Vanderwals of the world. Jack Cust is not one of them.

    Cust’s career PH numbers are consistent with most regular players’ career PH numbers, i.e. a HUGE drop off, and they are consistent with the league averages for PH.

    I also have no problem questioning the Padres’ really bad moves - I didn’t like the Blum signing at all, and I was dubious about whether Wells had anything left in the tank or whether this was the year he was done - so your hyperbole is matched in its ridiculousness only by your arguments about Cust. There also have been several moves over the past few years that I haven’t like, as well as several draft picks. Fortunately for the Padres, and I guess unfortunately for naysayers like you, more of their major league moves have worked out for them, even some of those with which I have disagreed.

    Props to John for having the intellectual honesty to admit that he may have been wrong about some of the moves he didn’t like. I don’t recall having seen that from you here. ;)

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  50. Tom Waits Says:

    49: Your head must have a special capacity for holding two disparate ideas simultaneously. Sweeney and Vanderwal weren’t always Sweeney and Vanderwal, but they were allowed to keep doing the job, and as a result turned in some good seasons. Nobody said “Mark Sweeney would make a terrible pinch-hitter” after his 169/217/262 season (2002). He bounced back. No reason Cust couldn’t do the same.

    Mark Sweeney’s 1st four ML seasons, in OPS+: 92, 102, 93, 56 (StL), then traded to SD and went off for 117. In later years he would dip all the way to a 30 - yes, a 30 - and would mix in an 82, 76, and 81. And he’s one of your paragons!

    Most players don’t hit worse as pinch-hitters. They just don’t have the plate appearances to compensate for an unproductive at-bat. Again, look at the wild year-by-year swings for a Sweeney or a Manny Mota and then try to rationalize them with your claim that pinch-hitting is some special skill that Cust couldn’t possibly possess. Two of the best pinch-hitters of the last forty years had some crap seasons.

    You’ve done everything but invent pom-pom smilies for the Padres. Question the Geoff Blum signing? My, what a fair-minded, objective observer you must be. He’s only been one of the worst major leaguers in the game the last few years, to doubt the wisdom of that signing is truly an indication of a deep thinker.

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  51. The Fathers Says:

    Wow, Tom, I didn’t think even you would stoop to cherry picking the worst year of Mark Sweeney’s career, when the guy had only been in the league since 1995 and had already demonstrated an aptitude for pinch hitting. He is a career .268 PH, which is freaking great. Same goes for Vander Wal. It goes up and down for even the best. For Cust, it has been consistently down, and well below major league average.

    If you think that pinch hitting is not a special skill set, I would love to see you try to prove that. Your first task would be to explain away the 30-50 point yearly batting average difference between overall hitting and pinch hitting from 2001 to the present.

    Funny also how you ignore all of the other admissions I have made to focus on the low-hanging fruit that is Geoff Blum. I said I’ve been wrong on several occasions - I’ll add a few more (1) the Giles re-signing; and (2) letting Hernandez and Olivo go. You still refuse to admit any error. Must be nice to be as perfect as you. :)

    And if you could come up with pom-pom smilies, I would love to add them to my posts, particularly after I follow a dour wallowing in negativity courtesy of you. I am very proud of what the Padres have managed to accomplish in the last 12 years, despite being routinely outrevenued by $30-50 million dollars each year.

    However, I can live with your sour and nasty ways, provided you can live with my relatively cheery optimism and willingness to give the team the benefit of the doubt.

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  52. Tom Waits Says:

    51: “Consistently down” is incompatible with “23 major league at-bats.”

    “It goes up and down for even the best.” Thank you for understanding the point, almost a full day late and more than a dollar short. If great pinch hitters have bad years, what sort of person would Cust definitely can’t do it after only 23 at-bats? Based on his major league record, which you’re hanging your hat on, he couldn’t possibly have hit 6 HR in 26 at-bats. Maybe we’re living in the Matrix and Cust is Neo. No way a guy with that major league record could do anything like hit 6 HR in 26 at-bats. And surely he couldn’t get on base or hit for power as a - gasp! - pinch-hitter.

    Cherry picking? I listed 5 of 13 seasons to show that your own anointed great pinch hitter could have below-average, even terrible, seasons. 5 seasons out of 13 isn’t enough of a sample to show that randomness affects a hitter, but 23 at-bats is enough to prove that Cust can’t do the job?

    You know what 30 points of batting average in 150 at-bats equals? 4 and a half hits. 4 and a half hits over a 6 month season. Smart people call that “nothing.”

    I’m not refusing to list any error, I just don’t see why I need to follow your dictates. You’re neither my mom nor my dad. Despite your attempts, you’re not the Ducksnorts Behavior Police. Remember when you told me I was “killing conversation” here? In the middle of a HUGE thread that continued for days after I supposedly delivered the lethal blow? Don’t you get tired of saying what a bad influence I am……and being proven wrong day after day after day? You’re a fairly lonely voice bemoaning my sour and nasty ways.

    If I was going to throw out a guess as to why you’re so proud of the Padres, who 8 years after swearing to develop a top-notch farm system have one of the worst in the game, and who promised that Petco would support a higher payroll but now rank in the bottom third, it would be a suspicion that you’re being paid by the Padres to feel that pride and to express it publicly. But that’s only a stab in the dark.

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  53. Tom Waits Says:

    would Cust = would say Cust

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