Playoff IGD: Tigers @ A’s, Cardinals @ Mets (11 Oct 06)
Wed, Oct 11, 2006
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 5:00 p.m., PT
television: FOX
ALCS matchup: Justin Verlander (17-9, 3.63 ERA) vs Esteban Loaiza (11-9, 4.89 ERA)
NLCS matchup: Jeff Weaver (8-14, 5.76 ERA) vs Tom Glavine (15-7, 3.82 ERA)
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Inexplicably, MLB has scheduled both games at the same time. San Diego native Esteban Loaiza gets the call for the A’s in the ALCS. I’d make disparaging remarks about Jeff Weaver here, but they’d ring hollow after his performance against the Padres in the NLDS. Feel free to chat about the games or pretty much anything else.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 11, 2006 at 7:36 am
Well, I stumbled upon a ticket to game one and let’s just say I’m in a quandry cause the Cards just beat the Padres so I guess I must root against them. Let’s just say what I say might be more profane toward Jeff “Chuck and Duck” Weaver.
October 11, 2006 at 7:50 am
I have trouble rooting for LA under any circumstance… I NEVER root for the Yankees and the Mets are loothed every bit as much as the Dodgers. While it hasn’t been fun seeing our Padres lose to the Cardinals in the playoffs, they’re the one team that I CAN root for in certain situations. Go Oakland & go St. Louis! (I expect both to lose.)
October 11, 2006 at 8:05 am
Peter, I don’t see any problem with rooting for the underdog? Haven’t we been doing that for years?
October 11, 2006 at 8:58 am
From Scorecard (SI.com) via the Rocky Mountain News:
San Diego president Sandy Alderson would like to bring in his own people, but with the Padres winning back-to-back NL West titles, it is difficult for him to get rid of general manager Kevin Towers and manager Bruce Bochy. And it’s why the Padres have let it be known that if the Cubs or Giants want to talk to Bochy about their managerial vacancies, they will be given the chance.
– Rocky Mountain News
October 11, 2006 at 9:22 am
From MLBTradeRumors.com and an interview with Bob Bavasi of JapanBall.com:
So far, I’ve seen reports on the following teams interested in Matsuzaka: Angels, Royals, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Dodgers, and Mariners. Based on Japanese media have any other MLB teams scouted him?
All the clubs have scouted him, but it really comes down to the wherewithal to place the big bet. Also, with regard to your list, I wouldn’t count San Diego out.
October 11, 2006 at 10:43 am
re 4, if Alderson wants to bring in his own people, he should. I mean you know, as an organization, you won’t be making as bad a PR move as the Marlins did.
October 11, 2006 at 10:45 am
It’s ridiculous that Steinbrenner and Alderson can’t seem fire their managers because they are “good guys” or “good baseball men.” It’s their team. They can fire whoever they want.
October 11, 2006 at 11:44 am
Re: #7 where does it say that Alderson wont get rid of boch?
I dont think Torre should be fired, its not his fault that he does not have a pitching staff that can perform.
October 11, 2006 at 11:57 am
Hey guys. Random rumor note: it seems like the Reds might be interested in trading Dunn this offseason, based on reading the Reds’ blog, http://www.redreporter.com , and also based on Krivsky’s apparent dislike of good hitters that strike out a lot and have defensive difficulties. Dunn seems both like a perfect fit and a horrible fit for the Padres. The guy clearly has the power necessary to hit the ball out of Petco Park, and he brings the power the lineup lacks at one of the two open positions on the team. But his defense is pretty bad, and one of the club’s key strengths this year was defense. So, thoughts, even if a trade is extremely unlikely?
October 11, 2006 at 12:04 pm
re: 8
There is comment No. 4 and Alderson supported Bochy yesterday in the North County Times.
It’s true that Torre didn’t sign those pitchers, but he is not a strong manager. Torre/Stottlemyre/Guidry haven’t been the very good at managing pitchers.
October 11, 2006 at 12:52 pm
9.
I read that somwhere too and have been contemplating it for the past 24 hours non-stop. One second he seems perfect and then the next second he seems like a terrible idea. I’m still kinda out on the idea. On one hand Dunn kills the ball and will hit you around 40 HR’s a year, he’s cheaper then most power guys, and he’s only 26. On the other hand his defense his speed and his strikeouts (on a team that has way too many to begin with) make me think not. I still think Soriano is perfect for us but I don’t see the organization ponying up the kind of money and years it would take to get him. So I don’t really know how I feel about Dunn.
Honestly if we don’t go out and get Soriano (a right handed leadoff hitter with power for day) I hope we keep Roberts and move Giles. I would hate to see Giles or Barfield leadoff and DR would be a much better bargin while playing an awesome Left or Right field if we could get someone like Dunn to give us more “pop”. Giles would seem like the kind of guy to me that would flourish in a lineup like Boston, Anahiem or Texas where he can play a role rather than be “the GUY”.
Anyways that’s my feelings so far I guess but I am seriously going nuts until the off-season officially starts. I can’t wait until some moves start to happen!
October 11, 2006 at 1:53 pm
11
How about this?
Giles and someone (pitcher) to cincy for Dunn
Sign DR for 2 years
Gets Giles back to the NL central (he’ll probably go nuts in Cincy) and gets us some pop
October 11, 2006 at 2:03 pm
Sad news about Cory Lidle!
12.
I would do that in a second but something tells me the Reds wouldn’t really want to take on Giles’s contract unless we gave them Peavy or Young. If it were Hensley or Carillio I would have to do it though especially if we could pick up Zito, Mulder or even Gil Meche. I hate the idea of giving up Hensley!!!
October 11, 2006 at 4:38 pm
I don’t dislike Bochy as much as several frequent posters. A la Seattle & Tampa Bay, if the Cubs want Bochy I’ll give him to them and take Donald Veal and Clay Rapada off their hands.
October 11, 2006 at 4:44 pm
I re-read my #14 post - confusing, sorry…
Like Seattle “trading” Pinella to Tampa Bay, if the Cubs want Bochy, they can have him and I’ll take Veal & Rapada…
October 11, 2006 at 5:26 pm
Mother Nature has taken care of the mistake by MLB to have both playoff games at the same time
It’s funny how all manager’s make mistakes, ain’t it? Like Jim Leyland starting Neifi Perez … and, worse, hitting him #2! Yikes!
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=261011111
October 11, 2006 at 6:26 pm
If Alderson brings in his own people, how long do we give him to win the World Series before he too is let go?
After all, the Pads have a strong core, they’ve been the best team in their division two years in a row, Bruch Bochy is one of the better managers in baseball (”he’s a manager who’d be snapped up immediately by other clubs” was how one writer put it — for what that’s worth), and he’s guided the Pads to the playoffs and Series when given adequate talent.
Also, Towers probably had his best year as a general manager this year with the Texas and Boston trades, giving the Padres a young talent base for years to come.
If Bochy and Towers were to be let go, with the new scouts and advisors in place, plus the generous budget the Pads will have for the first time in years, we should expect no less than a Series appearance within two years.
October 11, 2006 at 6:59 pm
Can’t speak for anyone else, but I expect no less than a WS appearance within two years regardless.
October 11, 2006 at 7:03 pm
The announcers for the Tigers-A’s game are brutally bad. Awful. Horrible. Etc.
I would like to see a WS appearance within two years, but I tend to think those are somewhat random, so as long as the team is continually in contention through the last week of the season I will be happy. Continually in contention like this year, though, not contention like last year, which hopefully was a bizarre anomaly.
October 11, 2006 at 7:36 pm
The Met game got rained out but that stuff tailgating at Shea Stadium with some friends, That was really scary. I mean players are sometimes risk takers but you never expect anything like this to happen. I feel really bad for his family, and I hope all our thoughts and prayers go towards them.
On a lighter note the Mets announced that the Wed tickets will be used friday so I can get out orf work again.
October 11, 2006 at 7:41 pm
Did anyone catch SA on XX today? I missed the interview, but I just had it on in the car and Darren Smith sounded like somebody just shot his dog. Something about SA saying that he wanted someone that was enthusiastic about what they were trying to do and apparently Bochy wasn’t. There was some discussion about the Padres not being a major player in the big name free agent market and trades, with Khalil’s name being mentioned. Coach came on later and talked about the interview, as well, something about Bochy and the Padres would find out what they’d miss if Bruce Bochy ever left. Can anybody shed any light on any of this?
October 11, 2006 at 7:51 pm
Obviously, Bochy would have more of attachment to the players on his team than SA. Not only is Bochy on the field with the players day in and day out, he has been with a number of these players — Khalil, for instance — since they’ve come to the big leagues and watched their steady progress. Alderson is making more of a numbers decision, so it’s easy to see where their views may clash. Throw Towers into the mix and —- well, that’s running a professional sports team.
All bets would be on both Bochy and Towers staying one more year. If the Pads get to the NLCS, then new contracts might be in order. If not, Alderson’s guys come in.
Not sure if he has to, but I think Alderson would have a difficult time explaining his decision to let Bochy or Towers go this year. If he did, he’d better at least get to the NLCS next year or be willing to face the wrath of the fans and media.
October 11, 2006 at 8:00 pm
XX said they’ll re-broadcast about a 2 minute clip from the SA interview “about BB’s status as manager.”
October 11, 2006 at 8:30 pm
I just listened to the clip on XX. I think they’re blowing things up. SA was being his usual lawyer-speak self.
Essentially, SA said that if he gets contacted by another team that wants to talk to BB, he’ll talk to BB and asks if he wants to do it. SA said that when he grants another club permission to talk to his employees, it is not so those employees will leave, but rather so they’ll be happy when they decide to stay.
SA said that he wants people committed to the organization who approach it with enthusiasm. He said that if BB wants to change positions, he can. He added that if BB is given another opportunity to coach elsewhere, and passes on it, then the Padres would be happy he was here.
He did say that he has talked to BB “recently” about what his responsibilities are within the organization, what is expected out of that responsibility and how decisions are made within the organization and how he fits within that. He was asked directly if they would renew BB’s contract. SA said it was something that had not been discussed, but that he expected he and KT to be talking about it over the next several weeks and it was something he and KT would discuss in that time frame.
Having listened to it, XX is hyping it for a lot more than it is worth.
October 11, 2006 at 9:47 pm
Why does everybody assume that Sandy Alderson’s ego is bigger than his intelligence? “Hey Sandy, you just won 40% of the division titles in the teams history with these two guys working for you! And the manager has won 80% of those titles and was the backup catcher for the other one! Wow! Better fire him right away!”
Sandy doesn’t seem like the kind of man to waste talent…I see no reason why we shouldn’t try to amass talent in the front office with the same zeal we attempt to amass it in the players ranks.
I would like to think that the days of those such as Chub Feeney running the Padres are long gone….
October 11, 2006 at 10:25 pm
Rich, I agree. It seems like ever since SA got here the press has been stoking a fire that he wants to can everyone and bring in his own people. He has denied that over and over. While there are lots of people who would like to see KT and BB gone, I am not one of them. I don’t think SA is either, so long as they want to be here and don’t feel threatened by him or his management type and style.
October 11, 2006 at 11:40 pm
Bochy’s value. I’m curious what it really is. Obviously it isn’t his in-game management (including setting the batting order). It also obviously isn’t that he stresses the fundamentals. What I constantly hear is that the players like him and that he’s a good guy. But what is that actually worth? Do the players play harder for him? They don’t appear to as almost nobody on the team runs balls out to put pressure on the defense.
I’m not trying to attack Bochy here. I’ve always just assumed that his off the field value must be high, but now I’m wondering what the value is. Anybody?
October 12, 2006 at 8:11 am
Rich,
I think one measure of Boch’s value that can be measured statistically is to compare the players PB (pre-Bochy) performance, with what he did playing for Boch. I think you could also look at what players did after they left the Padres and compare it with how they performed in San Diego. I have offered this thought before, but wouldn’t know where to start to pull the stats.
Which statistics would you use? I don’t know. But, based strictly on memory, I think Damian Jackson performed better in SD than anywhere else he’s been on a couple of different occasions. Fick was the same way. Our relief pitchers have always sucked when they’ve been traded elsewhere and usually performed better here. Roberts has steadily performed better here than anywhere else he’s been, two statistically career years. Bard and Bowen, the same way. Piazza says that Boch’s use of him has made him a better player this year.
While there are other variables that could have an effect on the performance, i.e. the rest of the coaching staff, the environment, the park, I think that is one way to legitimately measure the performance of the manager. Based strictly anectdotally, I think the players, overall, have performed better in SD than elsewhere, recognizing there are exceptions (Giles).
October 12, 2006 at 8:31 am
28: There’s some selectrive memory going on there, esp. in relief pitchers. We’ve had many, many, many terrible relief pitchers. And some who left had good seasons elsewhere. Aki, just this season.
With the bench players, it’s a small sample and random fluctuations. DJ has been the same player everywhere, mid-600 OPS. His “very good” 2005 Padre season was almost identical to his “disappointing” 2006 Nationals season in overall value.
The talent on the field is the biggest thing. Bochy might help us attract more FA talent, but money always matters the most.
Not that anyone’s mentioned Pinella here, but I see his name thrown around as someone who could “light a fire” under the Padres. If people think managers matter that much, look at the roster he had in 1997, when the Orioles beat Seattle 3-1 in the 1st round of the playoffs.
October 12, 2006 at 8:52 am
#29, I knew I went too far into the black and white instead of grey with that over-inclusive statement on the relief pitchers. I agree with you that I clearly overstepped my usual “hedging” answer.
I can also look at Vinny, Bellhorn and EY as players who didn’t perform under Bochy. But, I think it’s worthwhile to examine players in one environment vs. another to see if there’s any difference. If there is, it would be worthwhile to examine “why?”
October 12, 2006 at 9:11 am
30: There’d just be so many data points going in all directions. I don’t think Vinny was terrible because of Bochy, he was terrible because he got old and he wasn’t that good in the first place. EY was really good for us in 2005 and terrible in 2006.
I like the idea of a bench coach tactician, and that means somebody other than Drill Sergeant Tony Muser. That way you get the Bochy Benefit during the regular season, but mitigate his flaws, especially in the playoffs. Most importantly, Towers has to build a roster that doesn’t lend itself to misuse.
October 12, 2006 at 12:53 pm
You would have to compare how the players played relative to their projected stats, otherwise Bochy would look good if he got players when in their prime and bad if he got them as they first began to decline. Age is a hugely important factor and it would have to be controlled for. Also, you’d have to use park-adjusted stats, but like has been pointed out, you still can’t control for the value of the hitting/pitching coaches or in the case of pitchers the quality of the fielders behind them.
October 12, 2006 at 1:43 pm
Richard, I agree that a lot depends on the coaching staff, but, I think some of that is attributable to Bochy, since I think he has a signficant say on who they are, although not the final word. In other words, you don’t have to be smart if you’ve got smart people supporting you.
October 12, 2006 at 4:30 pm
LaMar, the problem remains that we still haven’t identified where Bochy brings any value to the team.