IGD: Padres @ Pirates (4 Aug 2005)

first pitch: 9:35 a.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Brian Lawrence (5-11, 4.50 ERA) vs Mark Redman (5-11, 4.30 ERA)
preview: ESPN | Padres.com

Tables, we’ve got tables…

Padres Aggregate Starting Pitching Before and Since June 1, 2005
Period GS W L ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
4/4 – 5/31 52 18 14 4.33 9.28 0.97 2.62 6.60
6/1 – 8/3 55 14 28 5.07 9.74 1.32 2.82 6.28
Stats courtesy David Pinto’s Day by Day Database.

More hits, walks, and especially homers, fewer strikeouts. No great mystery there. And the anemic offense hasn’t helped matters:

Padres Starts by Runs Allowed
RA GS W L
4 Apr – 31 May 05
0-3 31 16 3
4+ 21 2 11
1 Jun – 3 Aug 05
0-3 27 12 5
4+ 28 2 23
Stats courtesy David Pinto’s Day by Day Database.

One final set of numbers, and then a crazy idea.

Padres Starts by Runs Allowed, Part Deux
  4/4 – 5/31 6/1 – 8/3
Percentage of starts with 0-3 runs allowed 59.6 49.1
Percentage of wins by starters in those starts 51.6 44.4
Percentage of starts with 4+ runs allowed 40.4 50.9
Percentage of losses by starters in those starts 52.4 82.1
Stats courtesy David Pinto’s Day by Day Database.

The starters used to give up three runs or fewer 6 times in 10 starts; now one of those starts has crossed over to the 4+ realm. Also, the starters aren’t winning as many of the “good” starts and are losing a lot more of the “bad” ones. Where the offense might have picked up the starter on an off night earlier in the season, you can pretty much kiss the game goodbye if a guy gives up four runs now.

The crazy idea? Clay Hensley in the rotation. The only obstacles I see are that he isn’t a veteran and it makes too much sense. Whaddya think?

69 Responses »

  1. Anyone around for the early morning game today?

  2. Hey Mark. I’m following on Yahoo.

  3. I’m going to be doing the same thing

  4. Listening to the 1090 broadcast. My commenting will be limited (to everyone’s relief), as I actually have work to do.

  5. B-Law gets out of the 1st after a lead off double..

  6. 1-0 Padres…RBI Single for X-Nady

  7. Homer Khalil. Maybe he’s heating up again?

  8. Certainly would be nice to get him hitting well again.

  9. No GB for Brian yet.

  10. Shoot! Dave, wtf?

  11. finally a ground ball to end the inning after Roberts error costs us a run

  12. No Randa in the lineup. Is he hurt?

  13. Let’s go, EY.

  14. Nice 2 RBI double by Loretta.

  15. Bats have definitely come alive in this series..Let’s hope it continues..

  16. Another RBI for Nady. Go X!

  17. I’m liking these Pirates pitchers.

  18. Just what the hitting doctor ordered.
    Go yard Brian!

  19. I’m late to the party. Hope I didn’t miss ALL the fun. 7-1 already!

    Another day, another line-up. Any word on Klesko’s back?

  20. Lawrence, whether he’s on or not, is consistently efficient with his pitches. I like watching him, and he’s still a favorite of mine, even though he’s not really that good.

  21. So far, Brian Lawrence:

    3IP, 14 BF only 2GB, 3 doubles and 7FB.

  22. I’m here too, man GameDay is a sophisticated program. I work in the Database computer industry, and watching that thing during a game amzing. All the stats and update, all real time, and a lot of it automatic.

    Padre starting to hit, hit, hit…this is gonna help the rotation. For two months, the pitching has tried to carry the team and has cracked under the strain. Now that the hitting has returned, the pitching should improve.

  23. What the heck?
    The Padres just saw 5 pitches in the inning.
    2B and 3 outs.

  24. I really like the GameDay program too.
    Plus, all the goodies one can pull up about the pitchers and batters.

  25. Not saying we are a great team, but we can take the west if we play just a little bit better. And the hitting coming around, FINALLY, is a good sign.

  26. Yes, stats everywhere all in real time, all updated as the game goes on, and the best part, free. Probably charge next year.

    Wonder how they do it? Does MLB have a dude at every game punching in numbers? Or maybe a room full of dudes watching games and adding info.

    Collegue here says it reminds him a lot of the military real time battle software they have now to keep track of troops and equip resources.

    Its so nice when the pads are winning.

  27. Oh, good. They got Snell out of there.
    He was baffling the Padres hitters.
    2.2 IP on 21 pitches.

  28. Khalil threw for an error. Shoot!

  29. Good job, Brian. Out of jam.

  30. Lawrence:

    5IP 6H 3K, 68-48 pitches.

  31. two many errors. Guess they are existed about so much offense.

  32. Lee Mazilli has been fired.

  33. So, am I the only one who thinks Hensley deserves a shot at the rotation?

  34. No, I think Hensley should get at least 3 starts.
    However, who do the Padres demote to the bullpen?
    Astacio or Park?

    Park as a mop up guy would be very expensive.

  35. I don’t see any reason why not..Astacio and Park aren’t all that great…

  36. Sweet. All part of our plan for world domination…

  37. I don’t see any reason why not..Astacio and Park aren’t all that great…

  38. Why not bring Stuaffer back, he and Hensley can start, and put Pedro/Park on waivers, though no one would claim them with the high salaries, cept maybe the Yankees.

  39. Maybe we can package CH Park and Dave Roberts to Cincinnati for Griffey Jr.
    Then, bring up Oxpring from Portland.

  40. Jack Wilson just bunted for a single.
    Shoot!

  41. Griffey’s contract is too much and too long, it makes Park’s look cheap.

  42. Goff, (that an inside joke, BTW) I would settle for an NL West title.

    Mud told the story of Geoff Blum getting his first start in the BIGs. Being excited, having his family there (forgot what team) and freinds. So they announce him for his first big league AB and they call him Goff Blum. Heh. Mud tells it better, but kinda funny.

  43. And Griffey isn’t much of a fielder anymore. He wouldn’t be good for Petco. … Bochy takes out Lawrence, but there is some discussion on whether he can make his precious double-switch. I think you have to let the umpire know before you go to the mound.

  44. Bochy does make his double switch: Sweeney at first.

  45. Go Padres. We need more runs.

  46. Home run, Olivo

  47. Thanks, Kevin. I didn’t realize Griffey’s contract is so long.

    Hey, Olivo just went deep.

  48. Ojeda who?

  49. Bay almost caught it as it left, but he ended up just getting shaken up a little.