When Projections Go Bad

Friday, May 30, 2008
by Geoff Young
What the heck, now is as good a time as any to revisit pre-season projections. I know, OPS and ERA aren't the end-all and be-all, but they're good enough for government work... Projections vs Reality: Hitters  OPS PlayerBJCHMAMIZIDSAct Statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and are through games of May 29, 2008. Click on column head for more info about projection system. Josh Bard785741791728767767540 Adrian Gonzalez839840842810862879894 Tadahito Iguchi760737756723751732657 Kevin Kouzmanoff882796789740837858741 Khalil Greene762764752747742773599 Scott Hairston833740769721722794714 Jim Edmonds830766782739784756498 Brian Giles820777783732773789815 Gonzalez and Giles are doing as well as or better than expected; Iguchi, Kouzmanoff, and Hairston are underperforming; and Bard, Greene, and Edmonds aren't even close. Projections vs Reality: Pitchers  ERA PlayerBJCHMA...

The Shape of Things to Come

Wednesday, May 7, 2008
by Geoff Young
Top of the ninth, two on, one out. Adrian Gonzalez steps to the plate. Braves manager Bobby Cox summons ex-Padre Royce Ring, who promptly hangs a breaking ball. Gonzalez swats it high and deep down the right-field line. He, catcher Brian McCann, and plate umpire Wally Bell all watch as it sails into the Atlanta night... just foul for strike one. Ring proceeds to fan Gonzalez. After a pitching change, Kevin Kouzmanoff lofts a harmless fly ball to center, into the waiting glove of another ex-Padre, Mark Kotsay. Game over. The Padres lose again. That's the season in a nutshell so far. The Padres play poorly, and then, when they get opportunity, it fizzles... or misses by a few feet, whatever. I'm not prepared to ...
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IGD: Padres vs Diamondbacks (26 Apr 08)

Saturday, April 26, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres (9-15) vs D'backs (17-6) Justin Germano vs Micah Owings 12:55 p.m. PT FOX AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 188 MLB, B-R Nice weather we're having, eh?

IGD: Padres @ Astros (21 Apr 08)

Monday, April 21, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres (9-10) @ Astros (7-12) Justin Germano vs Roy Oswalt 5:05 p.m. PT Channel 4SD AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 188 MLB, B-R Oswalt is off to a terrible start, although he did well in his last start (which made Lisa happy). Me? I could use more of the terrible version right about now...

IGD: Padres vs Rockies (16 Apr 08)

Wednesday, April 16, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres (8-6) vs Rockies (5-8) Justin Germano vs Mark Redman 7:05 p.m. PT Channel 4SD AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 189 MLB, B-R How is Redman only 34 years old? More importantly, how is he in the rotation of a team that played in the World Series six months ago?

IGD: Padres @ Giants (9 Apr 08)

Wednesday, April 9, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres (5-4) vs Giants (2-6) Justin Germano vs Jonathan Sanchez 7:15 p.m. PT Channel 4SD AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 189 MLB, B-R I was so busy whining about sloppy baserunning and the 12-man pitching staff this morning that I forgot to mention Adrian Gonzalez's spectacular 3-5 double play in Tuesday's contest. It was a thing of beauty. You know what else is a thing of beauty? A win. How 'bout we get one of those tonight...

IGD: Padres vs Dodgers (5 Apr 08)

Saturday, April 5, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres (3-2) vs Dodgers (3-1) Jake Peavy vs Brad Penny 12:55 p.m. PT FOX AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 185 MLB, B-R I'm pleased with what I've seen so far from Randy Wolf and Justin Germano. Small sample? Yep. Petco Park? Yep. Hey, I said "pleased," not "deliriously happy." Peavy makes his first start since having his number retired at Lake Elsinore. Jim Edmonds, who went 2-for-6 in a rehab stint with the Storm, is expected to make his Padres debut.