Draft Watch 1999: Cal State Fullerton

by Geoff Young on May 21, 1999 (0) Comments

[Disclaimer: I am not a professional scout, just a rabid baseball fan who likes to watch as many games as possible, at whatever level, and who is always on the lookout for potential future stars. The reports here are strictly one person's opinion, based solely on empirical (as opposed to statistical) data, often gathered from an extremely limited sample (possibly as little as a single game). These are not endorsements or recommendations for or against any particular player -- that's the job of scouts. My intent here is simply to point out some players who stood out in my mind based on what I saw and to introduce them to you, the reader, so that you (and I, for that matter) might remember their names further on down the road if and when they appear on the prospect scene. Also, I sometimes make comparisons between the players I see and current or former major leaguers. This generally refers to physical appearance, mannerisms, "type" of player, etc., and is not meant to project future performance; in other words, I am simply telling you who someone reminds me of, nothing more. Finally, if you're looking for some good, cheap entertainment, I highly recommend getting out to your local college or high school and supporting their baseball team. You can spend a couple bucks to sit in the sun watching a game without salary disputes, work stoppages, etc. What more could you ask for?]

Cal State Fullerton, alma mater of the Brothers Giambi, among other big leaguers, visited San Diego a while back. There are some highly touted young ballplayers on that team, including Ryan Owens, Spencer Oborn, David Bacani, and Rod Perry, to name just a few. Owens and Oborn are draft-eligible juniors who project to be snagged in the first 10 rounds; Bacani and Perry are sophomores who bear watching for the 2000 draft.

Ryan Owens 3B 6-2 195 lbs, B-R, T-R

Ranked 41st among college players in Baseball America‘s college preview issue, Owens is listed in that publication as a shortstop/third baseman. In the game I saw, he played the hot corner. Looking a bit smaller than his listed height and weight, Owens stands back in the batter’s box with a slightly open stance. He exhibits good balance at the plate and reminds me somewhat of Paul Molitor in terms of body type and approach to the pitch. In his three at bats this game, Owens struck out swinging at a breaking ball in the dirt, grounded to shortstop, and walked on four pitches before being lifted for a pinch hitter (Fullerton was ahead 12-0 at the time). He looked a bit stiff at third base, backing up on and booting the first grounder hit to him. Owens appeared to have just average or slightly above average speed from home plate to first base but moved very well from first to third. Judging from how highly he is regarded by scouts, I suspect he just had a bad game the night I saw him.

Spencer Oborn OF 6-3 190 lbs, B-R, T-R

Oborn, a transfer from Brigham Young University and the #85 collegiate player according to Baseball America, stands straight up in the batter’s box with a slightly open stance. He has good balance at the plate and quiet hands. He waits on the ball well and is able to adjust to off-speed and breaking pitches. Oborn generates line-drive power to all fields with good weight shift and hip rotation. He hustles and appears to have his head in the game at all times. In the game I saw, he dropped a perfect bunt out in front of home plate for a base hit his first time up. Later, after poking a ball foul far down the left field line, he lined a base hit to center that he turned into a double. Oborn has above average speed and runs the bases well. Offensively he reminds me of a young right-handed-hitting Paul O’Neill (before he developed the home run power). Defensively he can play all three outfield positions, though he was in left field the night I saw him. Oborn looks confident and relaxed on the field: During a 20-minute fog delay he and another player kept the crowd and teammates entertained by — well, I’m not sure what exactly they were doing; sort of a bizarre hybrid of ping pong and wrestling — but believe me, it was pretty funny to watch. [Note: Oborn earlier this year had a 37-game hitting streak, second longest in Cal State Fullerton history.]

David Bacani 2B 5-8 165 lbs, B-R, T-R

Bacani’s game is pretty much what you’d expect from a smallish middle infielder: get on base and disrupt the defense. At the plate he stands with a spread stance; his strike zone is very small. He waggles the bat a lot before the pitch, a la Gary Sheffield or Tony Phillips. Bacani makes the opposing pitcher work. As a baserunner he is fast and also smart. When I saw him he was picked off once as he broke toward second base on a straight steal. He knew he was dead meat but he managed to keep himself in a rundown long enough for the runner at third to score before being tagged out to end the inning. On defense Bacani has decent range and holds his ground well against incoming baserunners.

Rod Perry OF 5-10 185 lbs, B-S, T-R

Perry, who attended high school in San Diego, didn’t start the game I was at. He pinch hit in the 6th inning and walked on four pitches. The second time up he stung a 3-1 pitch to the warning track in dead center field for an out. He’s short and stocky, and very powerful — think Kirby Puckett or Warren Newson. Perry is listed as a switch hitter but both his at bats were right handed, against a right-handed pitcher.

Fall/Winter League Stars: Puerto Rican League

by Geoff Young on Apr 23, 1999 (0) Comments

After a significant delay, we’ve finally landed in beautiful Puerto Rico to take a look at some of the players who excelled in their league this past winter. For a full explanation of all this, head on over to our coverage of the Mexican Pacific League. Otherwise, sit back, relax, and enjoy your stay in Puerto Rico.

Batters

League            Totbat  MinAB  Qualbat  Parambat  Paramtot  OPS  BB/K   ISO 
Puerto Rican        115     84      58       15       13.04  .715  .572  .139

Key. Totbat, total number of batters in league; MinAB, minimum number of at bats needed to qualify; Qualbat, number of batters who qualified; Parambat, number of batters who met parameters (i.e., positive iOPS, iBB/K, and iISO); Paramtot, percentage of total number of batters who met parameters. OPS, OBP + SLG; ISO, SLG – BA.

For the sake of comparison, the MLB OPS, BB/K, and ISO in 1998 were .757, .516, and .154. Batters in the Puerto Rican League tend to hit a little worse, hit for less power, and draw a few more walks relative to strikouts than in the big leagues (disregarding, of course, level of competition).

Below are the 15 batters, in descending order of at bats, who had enough at bats and were above league average in all three categories, OPS, BB/K, and ISO.

Puerto Rican League
Last        First  Pos  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB  PCT  OBP  SLG   OPS  BB/K  ISO  iOPS  iBB/K   iISO
Diaz         Alex   OF 177 37 59 20  0  6  26 17 19 21 .333 .392 .548  .940  .895 .215 31.53  56.32  54.60
Sierra      Ruben   OF 172 29 49 14  1  7  31 25 34  2 .285 .376 .500  .876  .735 .215 22.55  28.47  54.91
Lucca         Lou   3B 171 24 53  9  1  9  29 17 22  2 .310 .372 .532  .905  .773 .222 26.59  35.01  60.02
Vaz       Roberto   OF 169 21 51 12  2  4  15 20 13  6 .302 .376 .467  .843 1.538 .166 18.00 168.79  19.31
Correa     Miguel   OF 168 30 42 11  0  6  18 18 30 13 .250 .323 .423  .745  .600 .173  4.29   4.83  24.30
Latham      Chris   OF 167 29 39  8  4  4  19 35 42 12 .234 .366 .401  .768  .833 .168  7.42  45.60  20.74
Cruz         Jose   OF 166 34 53  9  1  6  29 31 27  5 .319 .426 .494  .920 1.148 .175 28.81 100.60  25.80
Valentin     Jose   2B 164 34 48 12  2  9  31 35 37  5 .293 .417 .555  .972  .946 .262 36.03  65.27  88.81
Villanueva Hector   1B 155 23 52  6  0 10  31 27 21  2 .335 .434 .568 1.002 1.286 .232 40.21 124.63  67.25
Beltran    Carlos   OF 151 28 47  7  3  9  28 18 30  6 .311 .385 .576  .961  .600 .265 34.46   4.83  90.76
Martinez    Ramon   2B 145 18 42 10  1  3  14 15 17  2 .290 .356 .434  .791  .882 .145 10.67  54.16   4.29
Vidro        Jose   2B 144 33 60 12  0 10  30 11  7  5 .417 .458 .708 1.166 1.571 .292 63.24 174.55 110.03
Colon      Dennis   1B 106 11 29  9  0  2  12 10 13  0 .274 .336 .415  .751  .769 .142  5.15  34.40   1.90
Merced    Orlando   DH 103 13 26  2  1  7  25 18  9  0 .252 .364 .495  .859 2.000 .243 20.19 249.43  74.78
Lopez       Pedro    C  89 11 18  4  2  4  12 13 16  0 .202 .304 .427  .731  .813 .225  2.29  41.96  61.82

Diaz, age 30, has spent parts of each of the past 7 seasons in the big leagues, with the Brewers, Mariners, Rangers, and, most recently, Giants. In 766 at bats, his career numbers are .240/.271/.324. Primarily an outfielder, he has also played a few games at second base. In 1995 he hit .248/.286/.333 in 270 at bats filling in for Ken Griffey, Jr., while Junior recovered from a broken wrist. Last year he hit .129/.129/.161 in 62 big league at bats. I’m not sure why, but he’ll probably get another chance somewhere this year.

Sierra, age 33, once appeared to be a superstar in the making but it never quite happened. He had 139 big league homers by age 25, but he’s only hit 100 more since then. For his career he’s at .269/.317/.451 in 6409 at bats (that’s 1723 hits for those of you keeping score at home). Last year with the White Sox he hit .216/.247/.459 in 74 at bats. He’ll probably resurface for a handful of games in 1999 before disappearing again.

Lucca, age 28, has toiled in the Marlins’ farm system for all of his 7 seasons, the past 3 of which he spent at Triple-A Charlotte. He showed decent pop and excellent plate discipline prior to reaching Charlotte, at age 25, but lost his batting eye upon reaching Triple-A. Playing mostly third base and some outfield, in 1998 he hit .290/.319/.453 over 397 at bats. His MLE was .248/.266/.373, which isn’t good for a third baseman but still is a significant upgrade from Josh Booty. His career numbers are .279/.355/.440 in 2473 at bats.

The 24-year-old Vaz is a personal favorite of mine. He’s a sweet swinging corner outfielder in the Oakland system. Vaz doesn’t have overwhelming tools but he sure can hit. Last year at Double-A Huntsville he hit .295/.369/.409 in 457 at bats. He also stole 23 bases. His MLE was .253/.305/.334. Not the stuff of legends, but I’m rooting for him.

Correa, 27 years old, played last season at El Paso, the Milwaukee Brewers’ Double-A affiliate, where he hit .279/.315/.419 in 537 at bats. That translates to a .231/.251/.324 MLE, terrible for an outfielder. After spending his first 6 seasons in the Braves organization, he moved onto Seattle in 1997 before coming to the Brewers. Last year, his ninth as a professional, was his first full one in Double-A.

Latham, age 26, is a switch-hitting center fielder in the Twins system. Originally drafted by the Dodgers, he came to Minnesota in the Kevin Tapani deal, if I’m not mistaken. He wins high marks for his defense and is very fast. Latham has spent most of the past 3 seasons at Triple-A Salt Lake City. Last year he hit .324/.412/.488 in 377, for an MLE of .284/.356/.410. Over 8 years in the minors he’s hit .290/.384/.428 in 2628 at bats. In 116 big league at bats, his numbers are .164/.248/.207. He’s currently battling it out with the younger Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones for a starting job. He’s no star in the making, but Latham should probably get a chance to play everyday for somebody.

What can I say about Cruz that isn’t already known? Seattle’s 1st round draft pick (#3 overall, after Ben Davis and before Kerry Wood) was traded to the Blue Jays for relievers Paul Spoljaric and Mike Timlin late in the 1997 season. The 25-year-old switch hitter can play all three outfield positions, has good power, draws walks, and can run a little. In 747 big league at bats he’s hit .250/.334/.454. He’s at the beginning of what promises to be a very solid career.

The 29-year-old Valentin, as you probably know, plays shortstop for the Milwaukee Brewers. He was moved to second base in Puerto Rico to accommodate some young prospect whose name escapes me at the moment, but he’ll be back at short for the Brewers. In 428 at bats in 1998 he hit .224/.323/.393. In his 7 years with Milwaukee he’s hit .241/.320/.422, which is pretty nice production out of a shortstop.

Villaneuva, age 34, is a huge man who caught and played some first base for the Cubs and Cardinals from 1990 to 1993. He had two outstanding seasons in Chicago, followed by a poor one, followed by 17 games of futility in St. Louis. His big season (excuse the pun) came in 1991, when he hit .276/.346/.542 in 192 at bats. For his career he hit .230/.293/.442 in 473 at bats. Despite the fact that he looked like as much of an athlete as John Kruk, Villanueva was, at least according to Greg Maddux, a good catcher to work with.

Beltran, age 22, is one of the better prospects in all of baseball. The switch-hitting center fielder from Puerto Rico was taken by the Royals in the 2nd round of the 1994 amateur draft. After 3 lackluster seasons, in 1998 he emerged as a potential offensive and defensive force. He split most of the season between Class-A Wilmington and Double-A Wichita, before hitting .276/.317/.466 in a 58 at bat trial with the big club. Beltran figures to be the starter this year in Kansas City, and though it may be a while before he reaches such lofty levels, he reminds me a bit of a young Bernie Williams.

Martinez is a 26-year-old second baseman in the San Francisco Giants chain. He came up for 19 games last year when Jeff Kent was hurt and hit .316/.435/.368 in 19 at bats. Originally property of the Royals, he came to the Giants in 1997 (I’m guessing as a minor league free agent) and spent most of 1998 at Triple-A Fresno, hitting .313/.375/.497 in 364 at bats, which translates to .273/.330/.416. While certainly no threat to Kent’s job, Martinez could probably be a useful backup.

Vidro, age 24, split 1998 between Montreal and Class AAA Ottawa. He hit .289/.361/.391 in the minors and .220/.318/.278 with the big club. He’s shown good pop in the minors for a middle infielder and his plate discipline is improving, so he’s got a shot to be a regular at some point, especially given the Expos’ situation.

Colon, age 25, toils in the Mets system. The lefty swinging outfielder split 1998 between Double-A Binghampton and Triple-A Norfolk, hitting .285/.349/.422 at the former and .269/.357/.313 at the latter. His MLE last year was .248/.304/.321, which is substandard for a middle infielder and unacceptable for a first baseman/corner outfielder.

The 32-year-old Merced, once thought by some to be a promising young hitter, is now a journeyman first baseman/corner outfielder who doesn’t bring a lot to the table and charges too much for it. Last year with the Twins, Red Sox, and Cubs he hit .278/.336/.413 in 223 at bats. For his career he’s hitting .281/.361/.425 in 3204 at bats.

Lopez, 30 years old, caught for the Astros’ Double-A club last year, posting .287/.373/.517 numbers in 178 at bats. For his career, he’s at .253/.325/.364 over 2472 at bats. I always hope guys like Lopez make it to the Show.
Pitchers

League            Totpit  MinIP  Qualpit  Parampit  Paramtot  ERA  K/BB  K/9  H/9 
Puerto Rican        109     23      53        8       7.34   3.69  1.78 6.49 8.43

Key. Totpit, total number of pitchers in league; MinIP, minimum number of innings pitched needed to qualify; Qualpit, number of pitchers who qualified; Parampit, number of pitchers who met parameters (i.e., positive iERA, iK/BB, iK/9, and iH/9); Paramtot, percentage of total number of pitchers who met parameters.

The MLB values in 1998 for ERA, K/BB, K/9, and H/9 were 4.42, 1.94, 6.61, 9.22. Once again ignoring the discrepancies in talent level, pitchers in the Puerto Rican League give up fewer runs and hits than their big league counterparts. Strikeouts and walks are about the same.

Here are the 8 pitchers, in descending order of innings pitched, who posted above-average values in each of the previously mentioned categories and who pitched the requisite number of innings.

Puerto Rican League
Last        First  W  L  G SV   IP  H  R ER BB SO  ERA  K/BB   K/9  H/9  iERA  iK/BB  iK/9  iH/9
DeSilva      John  3  4 11  0 61.3 51 26 21 28 52 3.08  1.86  7.63 7.48 16.55   4.09 17.55 11.21
Ludwick      Eric  4  1  9  0 54.3 31  8  8 14 55 1.33  3.93  9.11 5.13 64.11 120.18 40.35 39.07
Pineiro      Joel  2  0 12  0 50.7 43 19 18 18 39 3.20  2.17  6.93 7.64 13.41  21.44  6.73  9.37
Lilly         Ted  2  1  6  0 32.0 25  9  8  9 38 2.25  4.22 10.69 7.03 39.07 136.64 64.65 16.57
Mix          Greg  3  1 25  4 30.3 19  7  7 12 30 2.08  2.50  8.90 5.64 43.75  40.12 37.13 33.11
Nye          Ryan  2  2  5  0 29.7 22 12 11 11 29 3.34  2.64  8.80 6.67  9.63  47.76 35.54 20.81
Martinez   Javier  2  0 17  4 29.3 26 10  8 10 27 2.45  2.70  8.28 7.98 33.53  51.33 27.62  5.35
McGlinchy   Kevin  1  1 14  0 24.0 16  6  5  2 28 1.88 14.00 10.50 6.00 49.22 684.66 61.76 28.81

That’s all for now. Next stop on the tour, Venezuela.

Draft Watch 1999: University of Michigan

by Geoff Young on Mar 01, 1999 (0) Comments

[Disclaimer: I am not a professional scout, just a rabid baseball fan who likes to watch as many games as possible, at whatever level, and who is always on the lookout for potential future stars. The reports here are strictly one person's opinion, based solely on empirical (as opposed to statistical) data, often gathered from an extremely limited sample (possibly as little as a single game). These are not endorsements or recommendations for or against any particular player--that's the job of scouts. My intent here is simply to point out some players who stood out in my mind based on what I saw and to introduce them to you, the reader, so that you (and I, for that matter) might remember their names further on down the road if and when they appear on the prospect scene. Also, I sometimes make comparisons between the players I see and current or former major leaguers. This generally refers to physical appearance, mannerisms, "type" of player, etc., and is not meant to project future performance; in other words, I am simply telling you who someone reminds me of, nothing more. Finally, if you're looking for some good, cheap entertainment, I highly recommend getting out to your local college or high school and supporting their baseball team. You can spend a couple bucks to sit in the sun watching a game without salary disputes, work stoppages, etc. What more could you ask for?]

This weekend I took in a couple games at my alma mater, the University of San Diego, against the University of Michigan. Although there aren’t any real stars in the making on either team, some of these players could get drafted either now or in the future. This time around I’ll focus on the Michigan players (I’ll save the USD guys for later in the season, after I’ve had a chance to see them a few more times). The Wolverines don’t have any great junior prospects entering the draft, but there are a few seniors who could get a look, as well as the son of a former major league star and some projectable freshman pitchers.

First, the seniors who might go in the draft…

Brian Bush CF 6-1 180 lbs, B-R, T-R

Bush, Michigan’s leadoff hitter, is very fast and covers a lot of ground in center field. His arm is decent, but not great. He made several spectacular catches in the two games I saw, moving well to his left and right, and making an Edmonds-esque over the shoulder catch going toward the wall on what looked to be a sure extra base hit. He did muff one ball on a line drive single back up the middle when he appeared to take his eye off the ball in anticipation of where to throw it before it actually reached his glove, which allowed a baserunner to score. The righthanded hitter displayed excellent bunting ability and surprising power (although the homer he hit was over the left field fence, which at Cunningham Stadium lies a mere 309 feet from home plate). Bush looks to have pretty good all-around tools, and his speed might get him enough attention to be a late round draft choice.

Mike Cervenak 3B 6-0 185 lbs, B-R, T-R

Cervenak (“Isn’t that the robot from MST 3000?” my wife asks) bats second and is a Jeff Cirillo/Tim Naehring-type hitter who sprays line drives to all fields and has power to the gaps. The first day I saw him he lined rockets down the third base line his first three times up, two of them going for doubles; the second day he spread the ball around a bit more. Defensively he has good reactions, soft hands, and a very strong and accurate arm. I saw Cervenak one other time, in the Alaskan Summer League, and though I can’t find my notes from that particular game, I do recall being impressed by him then, as well.

Jason Alcaraz RF 6-0 198 lbs, B-L, T-L

Third place hitter Alcaraz has a classic left-handed stroke that generates line drives and occasional power. When he doesn’t overswing he’s quick through the hitting zone. At the plate he reminds me a little of Rusty Greer or Ryan Klesko. In the field he was inconsistent–he made a few outstanding diving catches, but at least one of those came on a ball that should have been a routine play had he gotten a better read. In fairness, there was a “high” sky that day and several routine popups were misplayed, so perhaps this was not indicative of his true ability. Anyway, his bat looks strong enough to me to at least warrant consideration in June.

Next, the son of a former major league star…

David Parrish C 6-3 210 lbs, B-R, T-R

The long, lanky frame; the way he hangs over the plate when he’s batting; and the number 13 on his back all led me to believe this was the son of former Detroit Tiger catcher Lance Parrish. A subsequent trip to the University of Michigan web site confirmed my suspicions. He’s a sophomore now, and though he bats cleanup for this team, he didn’t impress me too much. He has a long swing and doesn’t generate the kind of power one would expect from a guy his size. He appeared to be swinging mostly with his arms (a la Dan Wilson when he first came up), and if he learns to use the lower half of his body, Parrish could develop some power. Defensively he did well at blocking pitches in the dirt but his arm wasn’t as strong as I’d expected it would be. He’s still young, and he’s got a good slugger’s body and great bloodlines, so it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see him generate some interest among pro teams this time next year.

Finally, the freshman pitchers…

Bobby Korecky 5-11 165 lbs, B-R, T-R

Korecky is short for a right-hander but he throws hard and has a good, slow curve, and manager Geoff Zahn didn’t hesitate to bring him into the game with a 3-run lead and two runners on base in the 7th inning, which is a bit unusual for a freshman. He worked 2 2/3 innings, allowing a hit and two walks, while striking out four and generally leaving the USD hitters confused. He’ll always have the size thing to contend with but he sure looked good to me.

Phil Lobert 6-5 225 lbs, B-R, T-R

Lobert was hit hard the day I saw him, and I’m not sure why. He appeared to be throwing hard and he had a knee-buckling curve — reminded me a bit of Jack McDowell in terms of body type and delivery. He was also very quick off the mound in fielding grounders. There might not be anything to this kid, but he looked like a pitcher to me. We’ll find out in a couple years, I guess.

Jeff Trzos 6-6 225 lbs, B-L, T-L

Trzos (pronounced “Troce”) is actually the one player I came to see, as Baseball America mentions him in its College Preview issue as the top newcomer in the Big 10 Conference. Drafted in the 26th round of the 1998 draft out of high school, the big lefty reminds me of Andy Pettitte, with a smooth, easy delivery to the plate. His shoulder seemed to fly open every now and then, and although he appeared to have good stuff, he had trouble hitting his spots at times (likely related to the inconsistent mechanics) and was hit surprisingly hard given his velocity and the fact that shadows had just crept across home plate prior to his coming into the game. It looked like his left arm was coming back too far behind his body and hitters, especially right handers, were able to pick up his pitches too easily. It’s also worth mentioning that he didn’t make his first appearance until his team was trailing, 17-7, going into the 7th inning — not exactly a pressure situation. My guess is they want to bring him along slowly.

Well, that does it for this edition of Draft Watch 1999. This is the only time I’ll get to see Michigan this season, so if anyone else can provide updates during the season, I’d love to hear from you. Next time I’ll take a look at infielder Ryan Owens and outfielder Spencer Oborn from Cal State Fullerton. Until then, happy scouting!

Life in the SLO Lane: Part 2

by Geoff Young on Feb 15, 1999 (0) Comments

After my brush with the occult, I turned to more mainstream baseball purchases. At a great used book store whose name escapes me at the moment, I scored a copy of Baseball America’s 1989 Almanac.

The Almanac has changed a lot in the past 10 years. Back in 1989 it was a tall, skinny book that published all the minor league and college stats, much as it does today, but didn’t include player birthdates (always a must when searching for the next megastar).

In 1988, Willie Stargell, the only player voted into the Hall of Fame that year, became it’s 200th member. The Dodgers beat the A’s, 4 games to 1, in the World Series (everyone remembers Kirk Gibson’s pinch-hit homer off Dennis Eckersley in Game 1, but it’s also worth noting that Orel Hershiser collected more hits in one game than Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire combined in five games). Tom Gordon was the Minor League Player of the Year, and Stanford, behind future big leaguers Mike Mussina, Stan Spencer, and Ed Sprague, won its second consecutive NCAA Division I title.

The top Triple-A prospects that year were Mike Harkey, John Smoltz, and Sandy Alomar, Jr. Also in the mix were Gary Sheffield, Randy Johnson, Steve Finley, Gregg Jefferies, and Matt Williams.

Hensley Meulens, Pete Harnisch, and Ramon Martinez were the best in Double-A, with Omar Vizquel, Todd Zeile, Greg Vaughn, Kevin Brown, and John Wetteland in the top 10 in each of their leagues.

The California League had Ken Griffey, Jr., as its best prospect, while the Carolina League countered with Bernie Williams. In the Florida State League, things were a little different, with the immortal Chris Nichting leading the way. Tom Gordon, Derek Bell, Marquis Grissom, Stan Royer (who?), Steve Avery, and Jose Offerman nabbed the #1 spot among prospects in each of their respective Low-A leagues. But the player whose line really caught my eye was a middle infielder at Stockton named Charlie Montoyo, who drew a ridiculous 156 walks in 134 games.

Bryan Harvey was named MVP of the Puerto Rican League, and a surprisingly svelte (and goateed) Cecil Fielder won the Venezuelan League batting title. In the Cape Cod League, the prestigious collegiate summer league, a young second baseman named Chuck Knoblauch won the batting title for Wareham.

The Padres selected Evansville righthander and Baseball America Pitcher of the Year Andy Benes #1 overall in the draft. Washington State lefthander/first baseman John Olerud was named College Player of the Year. Robin Ventura won the Golden Spikes Award as the best amateur baseball player. The United States, behind LSU righthander Ben McDonald, won the Gold Medal at the Olympic Games in Seoul, South Korea.

Gregg Olson was the first 1988 draftee (#4 overall, by the Orioles) to make it to the big leagues, and Alex Fernandez was the only first rounder (#24 overall, by the Brewers) not to sign.

Well, that was a nice trip down the well-worn memory lane. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did.

Fall/Winter League Stars: Mexican Pacific League

by Geoff Young on Feb 11, 1999 (0) Comments

The fall and winter baseball leagues see an odd mixture of prospects, grizzled veterans, and legends of other nations. I’ve gathered all the statistics from four leagues — the Mexican Pacific League, the Puerto Rican League, the Venezuelan League, and the Arizona Fall League — and come up with a list of the top performers in each league. I simply took a few key indicators of performance (OBP + SLG [OPS], BB/K ratio, and SLG – BA [ISO] for hitters; ERA, K/BB ratio, K/9 IP, and H/9 IP for pitchers) for individuals and compared them to the league as a whole, expressed as a percentage above or below league average.

First I divided the number of at bats in the entire league by the number of batters. The players whose at bats were greater than league ABs/no. of batters were then sorted by OPS relative to league (iOPS). The players whose iOPS was greater than zero, i.e., above league average, were then sorted by BB/K relative to league (iBB/K). This process was repeated with ISO relative to league (iISO), and the players who were above average in all three categories are the ones I’ve looked at.

The same process was followed for pitchers, with innings pitched replacing at bats, and using the four pitching categories outlined above.

(Note: The Australian League and Maryland Fall League are not included in this survey because their level of play is considerably lower (and I got lazy). The Dominican League is omitted due to Hurricane Georges.)

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s look at the Mexican Pacific League.

Batters

League            Totbat  MinAB  Qualbat  Parambat  Paramtot  OPS  BB/K   ISO 
Mexican Pacific     170    105      75       19       11.18  .707  .860   .104

Key. Totbat, total number of batters in league; MinAB, minimum number of at bats needed to qualify; Qualbat, number of batters who qualified; Parambat, number of batters who met parameters (i.e., positive iOPS, iBB/K, and iISO); Paramtot, percentage of total number of batters who met parameters. OPS, OBP + SLG; ISO, SLG – BA.

For the sake of comparison, the MLB OPS, BB/K, and ISO in 1998 were .757, .516, and .154. Batters in the Mexican Pacific League tend to hit a little worse, hit for less power, and draw a lot more walks than in the big leagues (disregarding, of course, level of competition).

Below are the 19 batters, in descending order of at bats, who had enough at bats and were above league average in all three categories, OPS, BB/K, and ISO.

Mexican Pacific League
Last       First  Pos  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB  PCT  OBP  SLG   OPS  BB/K  ISO  iOPS  iBB/K   iISO
Leach      Jalal   OF 245 39 77 20  1  4  37 37 22 13 .314 .404 .453  .857 1.682 .139 21.31  95.63  33.40
White    Derrick   OF 233 45 75 15  0  6  31 37 34  8 .322 .415 .464  .878 1.088 .142 24.28  26.58  36.15
Ojeda     Miguel    C 227 22 60 11  0  6  32 31 35  2 .264 .353 .392  .745  .886 .128  5.38   3.02  22.81
Durazo   Erubiel   1B 223 51 77 21  1 12  48 32 24  2 .345 .427 .610 1.037 1.333 .265 46.77  55.09 154.33
Agbayani   Benny   OF 218 31 66  9  1  5  39 35 38  4 .303 .399 .422  .821  .921 .119 16.20   7.14  14.65
Williams   Eddie   DH 217 58 75 13  0 12  44 40 23  2 .346 .447 .571 1.019 1.739 .226 44.17 102.29 117.06
Robles    Javier   SS 205 27 50 13  0  6  32 34 25  3 .244 .351 .395  .747 1.360 .151  5.64  58.19  45.37
Seitzer     Brad   3B 198 42 56 11  2  7  36 56 33  2 .283 .441 .465  .906 1.697 .182 28.14  97.39  74.78
Rojas      Homar    C 198 21 55 11  0  6  31 21 11  2 .278 .347 .424  .771 1.909 .146  9.13 122.06  40.79
Jimenez  Eduardo   DH 195 33 55 15  0 11  46 65 44  0 .282 .462 .528  .990 1.477 .246 40.04  71.83 136.62
Guiel      Aaron   1B 195 32 54  8  0 10  32 41 41  3 .277 .403 .472  .874 1.000 .195 23.71  16.32  87.33
Stark       Matt   DH 189 31 66 10  0  7  44 51 11  0 .349 .488 .513 1.001 4.636 .164 41.60 439.29  57.67
Mendez   Roberto   OF 160 28 47 10  0  5  23 48 23  8 .294 .457 .450  .907 2.087 .156 28.30 142.75  50.20
Matthews    Gary   OF 154 35 41  7  0  4  12 44 25  7 .266 .429 .390  .819 1.760 .123 15.87 104.72  18.60
Burkhart  Morgan   1B 132 22 37  8  0  7  23 29 17  2 .280 .410 .500  .910  .706 .220 28.75  98.43 111.19
Butler      Rich   OF 129 16 37  7  1  3  14 19 20  8 .287 .378 .426  .805  .950 .140 13.87  10.50  34.13
Hurst      Jimmy   OF 117 23 28  6  0  3  25 35 40  7 .239 .414 .368  .782  .875 .128 10.65   1.78  23.24
Valdez     Mario   OF 112 16 35 10  0  8  22 24 26  0 .313 .434 .616 1.050  .923 .304 48.55   7.37 191.82

Leach, age 30, has been playing professionally since 1990 and has been in four organizations. He split 1998 between Shreveport and Fresno, the Double- and Triple-A affiliates of the San Francisco Giants. He’s seen time at Triple-A each of the past 5 years but never cracked The Show. His career numbers are .286/.346/.423, and last year his MLE was .313/.367/.495. Probably could make a decent fifth outfielder but won’t get the chance.

White, age 29, has accumulated 116 major league at bats over 3 seasons with Montreal, Detroit, the Cubs, and Colorado, hitting .181/.202/.302. His 1998 MLE was .312/.384/.527.

Ojeda, age 24, appears to be somehow affiliated with the Pirates, but the relationship isn’t altogether clear. He played 27 games of Rookie Ball in 1993, 48 games of Short Season Class-A in 1994, and then 18 games of Double-A last year. In 297 minor league at bats, he’s hit .212/.263/.316.

Durazo is a Mexican League veteran. In 1998 he hit .350, with 19 HR and 98 RBI for the Monterrey Sultans.

Agbayani, 27 years old, is perhaps best known for making the Triple-A All-Star squad last season, where he was to be married at home plate before the game in a traditional Polynesian ceremony, only to be recalled by the New York Mets for his first taste of the big leagues after 6 years of toiling down on the farm. He went 2 for 15 in his brief stint with the Mets, and his MLE at Norfolk was .248/.330/.397.

Williams, age 34, has spent most of his career in the minors, though he has managed to hit .252/.319/.398 in 1145 big league at bats, over the course of 10 seasons. The former first round pick’s best season came in 1994, with the San Diego Padres, when he hit .331/.392/.594 in 175 at bats. His 1998 MLE was .292/.342/.510. May continue to surface for a handful of at bats here and there before moving on.

The 29-year-old Seitzer is the younger brother of former Royals infielder Kevin Seitzer. In 8 minor league seasons he’s hit .282/.369/.433. He spent last season at Tacoma, Triple-A affiliate of the Seattle Mariners. No doubt it was a nice change from 1997, when he played for four different organizations. His MLE last year was .283/.366/.432. Seems like a useful enough player to me.

Rojas, age 35, played in the Dodgers organization from 1987-90 and compiled a .273/.309/.362 record over 762 at bats, mostly at Vero Beach and San Antonio.

Jimenez hit .295, with 20 HR and 85 RBI for the Mexico City Reds in 1998.

Guiel, age 26, is a C level prospect in the Padres organization. He came over from Anaheim in the 1997 deal that sent Rickey Henderson to the Angels. Guiel was injured for much of last season, but hit .311/.410/.519 (not MLE) at Triple-A Las Vegas. In 6 minor league campaigns he’s hit .290/.395/.488. Future fourth or fifth outfielder if all goes well.

Stark, 34 years old, is very popular in Mexico, as he plays there year round. Last year for the Union Laguna Cotton Pickers he hit .408, with 7 HR and 35 RBI. He played in the Blue Jays and Angels organizations before spending a couple of seasons with the St. Paul Saints and finally finding a home in Mexico.

Mendez, age 26, batted 34 times for Pittsburgh’s Rookie Ball club and hit .147/.231/.235.

Matthews, age 24, is a B- level prospect for the San Diego Padres. The son of a former big league outfielder with the same name, Matthews is an excellent athlete who is a natural centerfielder. He makes contact from both sides of the plate, and has a little power and a little speed. And, unfortunately, a knack for getting injured. His 1998 MLE was .267/.355/.392. Reminds me of Brian McRae. See Padres Farm Report: Mike Darr/Gary Matthews for more on Matthews.

Burkhart, age 27, has spent the past four seasons with the Richmond Roosters, of the independent Frontier League. For his career he’s hitting .353/.480/.676, including a gawdy .404/.557/.861 last year in 280 at bats.

Butler, 26 years old, was a prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays organization for many years before being selected by Tampa Bay in the expansion draft a couple years ago. He split 1998 between Triple-A Durham and the big club, hitting .226/.278/.364 for the Devil Rays. He’s got a decent shot at a recurring role as a backup outfielder in the bigs.

Hurst is 27 years old and a hulking (6’6″, 225 lbs.) right-handed hitter. He went 3 for 17 in a brief trial with the Detroit Tigers in 1997. Last year, at Pawtucket, the Boston Red Sox’ Triple-A club, his MLE was .270/.361/.438. In 8 minor league seasons he’s a .257/.340/.445 hitter. His past and future look a lot like those of many of these other guys.

Valdez, age 24, is a B/B- level prospect for the Chicago White Sox. He has a good line drive stroke and above-average plate discipline, but keeps getting passed over in favor of more toolsy players. In 115 big league at bats (all in 1997) he’s hit .243/.350/.330. Wasted all of last year at Triple-A Calgary, where his MLE was .291/.359/.447. Could start for a lot of big league teams right now.

I couldn’t dig up anything on Robles.

Pitchers

League            Totpit  MinIP  Qualpit  Parampit  Paramtot  ERA  K/BB  K/9  H/9 
Mexican Pacific     140     34      62       14       10.00  3.91  1.16 5.36 8.71

Key. Totpit, total number of pitchers in league; MinIP, minimum number of innings pitched needed to qualify; Qualpit, number of pitchers who qualified; Parampit, number of pitchers who met parameters (i.e., positive iERA, iK/BB, iK/9, and iH/9); Paramtot, percentage of total number of pitchers who met parameters.

The MLB values in 1998 for ERA, K/BB, K/9, and H/9 were 4.42, 1.94, 6.61, 9.22. Once again ignoring the discrepancies in talent level, pitchers in the Mexican Pacific League give up fewer runs, hits, and strikeouts, and more walks, than their big league counterparts.

Here are the 14 pitchers who posted above-average values in each of the previously mentioned categories and who pitched the requisite number of innings.

Mexican Pacific League
Last        First  W  L  G SV   IP  H  R ER BB SO  ERA K/BB  K/9  H/9  iERA  iK/BB  iK/9  iH/9
Garibay    Daniel  6  5 14  0 95.7 79 37 29 36 77 2.73 2.14 7.24 7.43 30.19  84.92 35.08 14.69
Alvarez      Tavo  6  2 16  1 91.0 80 40 39 35 69 3.86 1.97 6.82 7.91  1.30  70.44 27.25  9.18
Rios        Jesus  5  2 16  0 89.3 71 36 29 43 63 2.92 1.47 6.35 7.15 25.24  26.67 18.35 17.89
Lopez     Rodrigo  2  5 13  0 76.7 51 29 25 30 52 2.93 1.73 6.10 5.99 24.90  49.85 13.83 31.28
Moreno   Leobardo  5  2 14  0 73.7 66 30 23 36 54 2.81 1.50 6.60 8.06 28.10  29.68 23.02  7.44
Bernal     Manuel  5  4 11  0 71.7 63 28 25 23 50 3.14 2.17 6.28 7.91 19.67  87.94 17.08  9.18
Bailey       Cory  3  5 14  2 58.7 47 22 19 28 43 2.91 1.54 6.60 7.21 25.42  32.77 23.01 17.23
Valdez    Armando  3  3 35  2 55.3 49 30 23 26 37 3.74 1.42 6.02 7.97  4.28  23.03 12.22  8.51
Palacios  Vicente  5  2 30  1 53.3 40 17 13 20 58 2.19 2.90 9.79 6.75 43.87 150.72 82.51 22.52
Aguirre Gaudencio  2  3 18  1 53.3 47 19 15 24 33 2.53 1.38 5.57 7.93 35.23  18.87  3.84  8.96
Cruz       Javier  7  2 32  8 48.3 33 16 16 20 42 2.98 2.10 7.82 6.14 23.77  81.55 45.83 29.46
Flynt        Will  1  4  8  0 48.0 46 20 11 28 44 2.06 1.57 8.25 8.63 47.22  35.86 53.84  0.99
Del Toro   Miguel  4  2 29  5 47.0 35 18 14 25 38 2.68 1.52 7.28 6.70 31.40  31.41 35.69 23.07
Diaz       Rafael  3  2 27 10 39.0 29 10  9 21 37 2.08 1.76 8.54 6.69 46.86  52.32 59.22 23.18

Garibay, age 26, worked very briefly in the Dodgers farm system. In 1994, at Double-A San Antonio, he put up the following line: 3 G, 1 GS, 0.2 IP, 10 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 0 SO, 121.50 ERA. That’s the last time he pitched north of the border. Last year, with the Mexico City Tigers, he went 10-2, with a 3.37 ERA in 155 innings.

Alvarez is a 27-year-old who has pitched in the Expos and Pirates organizations. In 874 career minor league innings, he has a 56-51 record and a 3.56 ERA. Last season, at Triple-A Nashville, he went 3-5 with a 4.83 ERA in 86 innings. At the plate he was 5 for 16 with a double and a homer.

Rios spent 1998 with the Monclova Steelers, of the Mexican League, where he finished 16-6, with a 3.00 ERA over 177 innings.

Lopez, 23 years old, is a decent prospect in the Padres system. After a fine 1997 season at Class-A Clinton, he was jumped past Rancho Cucamonga to Double-A Mobile, where he made 4 good starts (3-0, 1.40 ERA, 4 BB, 20 SO) before getting hurt. Don’t know much other than that, but now that I know he exists I’ll be keeping track of him this year. In 253 minor league innings he has a 14-13 record and a 4.02 ERA.

The 25-year-old Bernal pitched in the Royals chain from 1994-97, never making it past Class-A ball. In 297 minor league innings he is 16-20 with a 4.22 ERA, but only 152 SO.

Bailey, age 28, is a former Red Sox prospect who spent 1998 at Fresno, the San Francisco Giants’ Triple-A ballclub, where he posted a 7-2 record, 10 saves, and a 2.47 ERA over 95 innings. For his career he is 36-32, with 132 saves in 490 innings. In 94 big league innings, he’s compiled a 5-5 record and a 4.23 ERA.

Palacios, 35 years of age, was a terrific pitching prospect in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization back in the late 1980s. His career minor league record is 31-17, with a 3.12 ERA in 482 innings. In the big leagues, with the Bucs and the St. Louis Cardinals, he is 17-19, with a 4.36 ERA in 361 innings. He last pitched with the Cards in 1995 and has been playing in the Mexican League ever since. Last season, with the Monterrey Sultans, he was 7-2, with a 1.18 ERA and 25 saves in 76 innings pitched.

Flynt, age 31, has a very spotty minor league record, having appeared at Class-A San Bernardino in 1991, then disappearing for 3 years before working a handful of games at Double- and Triple-A in 1995 and 1996, in the Pirates and Orioles chains. He missed 1997, then spent last season with the Bend Bandits of the Independent Western League, where he started 21 games and went 9-8, with a 5.15 ERA and 134 SO in 136 innings.

Diaz, 27 years old, spent parts of 4 seasons in the Cincinnati Reds organization, never making it out of Rookie League ball except for 15 innings in 1991 in Class-A. From 1989 to 1993, he compiled a 9-6 record and a 4.41 ERA over 137 innings. Last year at Monterrey he worked 176 innings, going 14-4 with a 3.02 ERA.

I was unable to find information on Moreno, Valdez, Aguirre, Cruz, or Del Toro.

That’s all for now. Join me next time, when we travel to Puerto Rico!

Life in the SLO Lane: Part 1

by Geoff Young on Feb 08, 1999 (0) Comments

I have a knack for turning just about any trip into a baseball trip. My wife is a good sport about this — as well she should be; after all, we first met at a hockey game. What did she expect?

A few weeks back we drove up the California coast to San Luis Obispo for her birthday. Now I know what you’re thinking: It’s winter, there’s no baseball going on. And even if it were, it sure wouldn’t be going on in that part of the world. No major league team, no minor league team; heck, not even a Division I school. Maybe some Little League, but that’s about it.

No, there were no games going on. But there were book and game stores, and you’d better believe I picked up some goodies.

Our first stop was a game/comic book store. Here, hidden among the D & D miniatures and various mutations of Monopoly, I found the “Tarot of Baseball,” published by U.S. Games Systems, Inc., of Stamford, Connecticut. From the instruction booklet that came with the deck:

Like the traditional Tarot, the Tarot of Baseball is built on the interweaving of metaphors and meanings. Each reading reveals a meaning and myth that draws upon the basic icons of the game. By lending a present context to the symbols and aphorisms, the Seeker can divine from the layout of the cards a sense of where the future may lead. In other words, baseball is life, and life is baseball.

I still haven’t figured out how exactly to use these cards, but I have to respect a system that acknowledges the undeniable link between baseball and life.

All the traditional Tarot icons have been updated to work within the baseball context. For example, The Fool is now The Rookie, Justice is The Umpire, etc. The artwork on the cards is great: My favorite is the Four of Balls, which features a pitcher lying on his back on a bench, presumably in the locker room, with four baseballs on the floor beneath him and a sign on the wall above which proclaims that “Walks Will Come Back to Haunt You.”

I really don’t know what I’m going to do with this deck of cards now that I have them other than look at them every so often and say, “cool!” Then again, if I figure out how to use them soon enough, maybe they’ll help me in evaluating pitchers for my upcoming Scoresheet drafts.

For more information on the “Tarot of Baseball,” visit http://www.astroamerica.com/t-base2.html

Paul Konerko and the Myth of the Dodger Prospect Hype Machine

by Geoff Young on Oct 22, 1998 (1) Comments

Now that the season is finally over and I’m not able to cash in the $20 bet I had on the Padres to win it all at 28-1 odds (I placed the bet just prior to the deal for Kevin Brown), I’m starting to go through my files and finding all sorts of wonderful stuff.

Here’s a message I posted to one of the AOL boards (I believe it was STATS’ Cincinnati Reds board), dated July 6, 1998. I think it’s still relevant.

In defending the Dodgers’ and then-GM Tommy Lasorda’s trade of Paul Konerko and Dennis Reyes to the Reds for Jeff Shaw, it was suggested that “Konerko is but the latest in a long line of Dodger farm system sluggers that tore it up in Albuquerque only to struggle in the majors…. In this group are such players as Eric Karros, Mike Marshall, Billy Ashley and Greg Brock. That’s the kind of player Konerko is gonna be. He might be as good as Karros, or as bad as Ashley.”

I couldn’t let this go, of course, so here was my reply:

Let’s give the guy more than 150 ABs in the big leagues before we write him off. Also, it should be noted that Konerko also tore it up at San Antonio, a horrible home run park, the year before.

Following are the first full seasons at Albuquerque of Karros, Marshall, Ashley, Brock, and Konerko, respectively.

Player Yr Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
Karros 91 24 132 488 88 154 33 8 22 101 58 80 3 .316 .391 .551
Marshall 81 21 128 467 114 174 25 7 34 137 57 80 21 .373 .445 .675
Ashley 93 22 125 482 88 143 31 4 26 100 35 143 6 .297 .344 .539
Brock 82 25 135 480 118 149 21 8 44 138 105 81 4 .310 .432 .662
Konerko 97 21 130 483 97 156 31 1 37 127 64 61 2 .323 .407 .621

Karros was 3 years older and put up worse numbers, Marshall put up better numbers at the same age, Ashley’s numbers are laughable, and Brock was slightly better but 4 years older.

Now here are the career MLB stats of the same guys (except Konerko, for obvious reasons):

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG OBP SLG
Karros 954 3596 464 955 173 9 162 578 297 .266 .321 .454
Marshall 1035 3593 433 971 173 8 148 530 247 .270 .321 .446
Ashley 275 606 54 141 22 1 26 82 62 .233 .307 .401
Brock 1013 3202 420 794 141 6 110 462 434 .248 .338 .399

Marshall and Karros have been similar hitters as big leaguers. Ashley has been predictably mediocre (at best), and Brock essentially peaked around the time he reached the majors. It is conceivable that Konerko could be as bad as Marshall or Karros, though Konerko has displayed better plate discipline than either of them did at the same level. Comparisons to Ashley and Brock are far-fetched at best: Ashley because of his atrocious strike zone judgment, and Brock because by the time Konerko turns 25 (the same age Brock was when he was tearing up the PCL) he should have more career homers than Brock.

Realistically, assuming Konerko is given the opportunity to play every day, and assuming he is able to make the adjustments all young players must make when they step up to a higher level (and there’s no reason based on his past history to believe he cannot), Konerko should consistently put up numbers on the order of .280/.370/.550 for the next 8-12 years, numbers which Karros once approached, at age 27. Konerko’s ceiling is more along the lines of Jeff Bagwell. If he doesn’t develop as expected, he could settle into another Eric Karros, which would certainly be disappointing but by no means embarrassing.

Looking into the Crystal Ball: Part 2

by Geoff Young on Oct 21, 1998 (0) Comments

As promised in our last installment, here are the career projections of 13 up-and-coming AL players based on Bill James’ Brock2 method. If you’re interested, the spreadsheet is available at Baseball1.com.

If not, just sit back, relax, and look at the numbers. And if you want a really good laugh, look at them again in about 20 years.

Career

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
Damon, Jo 2022 7251 1102 1999 297 90 204 908 677 .276
Encarnacion 2319 8397 1317 2497 402 142 421 1459 565 .297
Erstad, Da 2293 8616 1360 2552 558 40 346 1342 813 .296
Garciaparra 2758 10933 1713 3255 620 100 652 2058 738 .298
Grieve, Be 2463 8773 1431 2570 578 20 339 1346 1317 .293
Jeter, De 2851 10961 1909 3331 465 92 296 1445 1149 .304
Ordonez, Ma 1549 5435 770 1562 270 14 196 768 345 .287
Ortiz, Da 2220 7078 1243 2043 464 0 282 1078 963 .289
Posada, Jo 1243 3878 528 978 223 0 180 596 511 .252
Rodriguez, A 3316 12841 2273 3923 717 57 866 2578 1050 .305
Sweeney, Mi 1611 4788 556 1243 248 0 173 652 432 .260
Tejada, Mi 607 2117 335 510 108 11 76 281 161 .241
Walker, To 1762 6031 763 1713 388 22 140 734 547 .284

Peak (age 27)

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
Damon, Jo 152 558 104 167 24 8 19 81 58 .300
Encarnacion 154 579 117 190 31 13 34 116 41 .329
Erstad, Da 153 592 116 192 43 3 29 106 60 .325
Garciaparra 154 643 135 216 42 8 46 143 44 .336
Grieve, Be 154 563 118 182 41 2 27 99 94 .323
Jeter, De 153 617 139 207 28 7 22 96 71 .336
Ordonez, Ma 152 548 92 169 29 2 22 85 37 .309
Ortiz, Da 153 501 111 158 36 0 24 87 76 .317
Posada, Jo 108 348 58 95 23 0 18 58 52 .273
Rodriguez, A 154 623 144 212 38 4 51 148 54 .340
Sweeney, Mi 152 461 64 131 26 0 19 69 45 .283
Tejada, Mi 29 102 21 27 6 0 5 16 10 .266
Walker, To 138 494 80 155 36 2 14 70 49 .314

Looking into the Crystal Ball: Part 1

by Geoff Young on Oct 20, 1998 (0) Comments

In his 1985 Baseball Abstract, Bill James introduced the Brock2 System, a method for projecting a player’s career stats based on what he’s done so far. James himself recognized its limitations and said, ultimately, that he used the system because “it’s fun to play around with.” The system has since been modified countless times (last I checked, they were up to “Brock6″), but I still wouldn’t go betting the farm that it will work even a small percentage of the time.

Now, if you’re like Bill James and think this sort of thing is “fun,” you can download a copy of the original Brock2 spreadsheet from Baseball1.com. If you’re not really into that, but think it might be fun to sneak a peak at the results for a few players, you’re in luck. I’ve included a baker’s dozen young players whose careers I thought it would be interesting to project. There was no real method to my selection other than these are all players I kind of like and was curious to see how their careers might turn out. I’m not going to offer any commentary on any of these, because frankly, what can I possibly say about them? I could tell you I expect Richard Hidalgo to hit at least one triple in his career, but that’s hardly useful.

So, take these projections for what they are: fun. This time we look at 13 NL players. Next time we’ll visit the AL, land of the uber-shortstops.

Career

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
Abreu, Bo 2196 6928 760 1971 364 54 234 979 1031 .284
Fullmer, Br 1683 5667 663 1561 446 16 198 824 487 .275
Guerrero, Vl 3063 10939 1697 3347 619 72 720 2170 881 .306
Helton, To 2405 7749 1003 2285 452 14 416 1360 796 .295
Hidalgo, Ri 2627 7673 1066 2266 488 0 297 1155 710 .295
Jones, An 3030 9616 1497 2521 502 75 637 1831 968 .262
Kendall, Ja 2802 9310 1391 2824 589 44 200 1159 964 .303
Kotsay, Ma 1806 6468 831 1812 278 66 151 784 478 .280
Lee, De 1855 5730 921 1437 351 10 286 923 687 .251
Marrero, El 1479 4452 510 1121 279 12 110 516 483 .252
Renteria, Ed 2373 8876 1392 2579 329 32 69 787 843 .291
Rolen, Sc 2903 10107 1750 2815 645 41 544 1774 1454 .279
Tatis, Fe 1898 6536 862 1797 364 30 196 851 518 .275

Peak (age 27)

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
Abreu, Bo 154 502 72 160 30 5 21 83 84 .318
Fullmer, Br 153 526 75 157 46 2 21 84 48 .299
Guerrero, Vl 154 575 120 198 37 5 46 137 49 .344
Helton, To 154 517 89 171 34 1 34 106 58 .330
Hidalgo, Ri 153 465 86 153 34 0 23 83 47 .330
Jones, An 153 507 107 151 30 5 42 117 56 .298
Kendall, Ja 153 532 104 179 38 3 15 79 61 .336
Kotsay, Ma 152 555 86 169 26 6 15 75 45 .304
Lee, De 152 486 96 133 33 1 28 87 63 .275
Marrero, El 152 468 65 128 32 2 13 61 54 .274
Renteria, Ed 152 577 111 182 23 2 5 59 61 .316
Rolen, Sc 154 558 133 175 42 3 38 117 92 .313
Tatis, Fe 152 536 86 160 33 3 18 78 46 .300

Blast from the Past: 1992

by Geoff Young on Jun 03, 1998 (0) Comments

My wife and I just moved, and while I was packing boxes I came across a bunch of great baseball stuff I’d forgotten I had — a baseball autographed by the (1980?) Dodgers (Tommy Lasorda, Steve Garvey, Bill Russell, Dusty Baker [amazingly, not a single Teddy Martinez!]); an unopened set of 1988 Triple-A All-Star baseball cards (thanks, Dan); and a few old Street & Smith’s, Mazeroski, and Sporting News Baseball Yearbooks.

So of course I immediately, to my wife’s dismay, began reading some of those old magazines. I started leafing through the 1992 Mazeroski, and quickly worked my way back to the good ol’ “Farm Report.” Some of the names they were touting with just rookie ball experience — Alex Gonzalez, Alex Ochoa, Frank Rodriguez (as a shortstop!), Justin Thompson, Derek Lowe, Benji Gil, Scott Ruffcorn, Dmitri Young — eventually made it to the big leagues. Many more, of course (from uberprospect Brien Taylor to virtual unknowns Chad Schoenvogel and Derrick Bottoms — there’s got to be a “Spinal Tap” joke in there somewhere) never even came close.

After flipping through the organizational reports, I came to the hallowed “Maz’s Gold List.” Mazeroski used to publish two lists, one for propects who were expected to make an immediate impact, and another for those who would contribute a bit further down the road. For your enjoyment (and mine) I now present those two lists in all their glory.

Their Future Is Now

  1. Roger Salkeld, RHP, Seattle
  2. Kenny Lofton, OF, Cleveland
  3. Lance Dickson, LHP, Cubs
  4. Todd Hundley, C, Mets
  5. Derek Bell, OF, Toronto
  6. Mark Wohlers, RHP, Atlanta
  7. Cal Eldred, RHP, Milwaukee
  8. Wilfredo Cordero, SS, Montreal
  9. Hector Fajardo, RHP, Texas
  10. Eddie Zosky, SS, Toronto
  11. Lee Stevens, 1B, California
  12. Jim Thome, 3B, Cleveland
  13. Denny Neagle, LHP, Minnesota
  14. Tino Martinez, 1B, Seattle
  15. Kirk Dressendorfer, RHP, Oakland

Seven pitchers, eight position players. Of the seven pitchers, Wohlers and Neagle have become stars, while Eldred has put together a solid, if unspectacular, career. The others all saw time in the big leagues.

Dickson’s career was cut short by injuries. In 1991, as a 21-year-old, he posted a fine 3.11 ERA at Triple-A Iowa. In the five seasons that followed, he worked a total of 90 2/3 innings before hanging up his spikes in 1995.

Salkeld and Dressendorfer had arm miseries that severely reduced their effectiveness. Salkeld, still only 27, currently sports a 9.33 ERA for the Astros’ Triple-A affiliate in New Orleans. The 29-year-old Dressendorfer, once one of the A’s fabled “four aces,” last pitched in 1997 for Albuquerque, the Dodgers’ Triple-A club.

Fajardo, having reached the majors at the age of 20, posted a 6.95 ERA over 30 major league games spanning parts of four seasons before retiring in 1995.

Of the position players, Lofton, Hundley, Thome, and Martinez have become stars. Bell, Cordero, and Stevens are major league regulars. Zosky has had glimpses of the Show, but has never been able to stick.

Some of the comments are interesting as well, my favorite being “Hundley doesn’t have an imposing bat, but could hit .250 with occasional power.” It seems kind of weird now, when he’s hit 41 and 30 homers over the past two seasons, but for a time it looked like he’d never learn to hit. His first two full seasons he hit .209/.256/.316 and .228/.269/.357. OPS of 572 and 626 hardly seem inspiring. They’re almost Manwaring-esque…until you realize that Kirt the Killer put up OPS of 646 and 695 in his first two full seasons. Granted, he was 3 years older than Hundley, but still…

Their Future Is Near

  1. Todd Van Poppel, RHP, Oakland
  2. Arthur Rhodes, LHP, Baltimore
  3. Pedro Martinez, RHP, Los Angeles
  4. Brian Williams, RHP, Houston
  5. Donovan Osborne, LHP, St. Louis
  6. Royce Clayton, SS, San Francisco
  7. Willie Banks, RHP, Minnesota
  8. Reggie Sanders, OF, Cincinnati
  9. Dave Nilsson, C, Milwaukee
  10. Greg Gohr, RHP, Detroit

Again, seven pitchers, but this time only three position players. All seven pitchers reached the big leagues. Martinez has become a superstar, while Rhodes and Osborne have had careers. Van Poppel has been dubbed “Van Floppel” which tells you all you need to know about him. Brian Williams, Willie Banks, and Greg Gohr have done very little to distinguish themselves, although Gohr was once traded to the Angels for second baseman Damion Easley. Gohr promptly retired, while Easley established himself as one of the game’s best at his position.

It’s now hard to imagine Arthur Rhodes as “the next Vida Blue,” although he’s turned out to be quite a good relief pitcher; Brian Williams as “a modern-day Bob Gibson” seems downright laughable, as does the thought of Dave Nilsson behind the dish.

Here are a couple more fun lists.

Top College Prospects

  1. Jeff Hammonds, OF, Stanford
  2. Charles Johnson, C, Miami (Florida)
  3. Michael Moore, OF, UCLA
  4. John Burke, RHP, Florida
  5. Paul Shuey, RHP, North Carolina
  6. Calvin Murray, OF, Texas
  7. Michael Tucker, SS, Longwood (Virginia)
  8. Chris Roberts, LHP/OF, Florida State
  9. Derek Wallace, RHP, Pepperdine
  10. Doug Mirabelli, C, Wichita State
  11. Chad McConnell, OF, Creighton
  12. Chris Gomez, SS, Long Beach State

Others to watch: Jason Giambi, 3B, Long Beach State; Doug Hecker, RHP/1B, Tennessee; Scott Klingenbeck, RHP, Ohio State; Dan Melendez, 1B, Pepperdine; Phil Nevin, 3B, Cal State Fullerton.

Hammonds, Johnson, Tucker, Gomez, and Giambi have all become major league regulars (though it’s hard to imagine Michael Tucker playing shortstop, or Chris Gomez being considered a better prospect than Jason Giambi!).

Moore, former pro football player Ahmad Rashad’s nephew, was the Dodgers’ first round pick in the 1992 draft. He has struggled mightily with the strike zone since he turned pro, and in seven minor league seasons playing for three different organizations he’s accumulated only 83 at bats above Double-A. He’s currently back at Class A, this time in the Mariners organization, where at his peak age of 27 he’s hitting .196, with a 25/23 strikeout/total bases ratio, for Lancaster in the hitter-friendly California League.

Burke has struggled in the Colorado system, occasionally surfacing with the big club.

Murray, now 26 years old, has been shuttling back and forth from Double-A Shreveport to Triple-A Phoenix (and now Fresno) ever since he signed with the Giants back in 1993. In 668 minor league games he’s stolen 192 bases, but his OPS is an anemic 694.

Roberts was drafted in the first round of the 1992 draft as a pitcher by the Mets. He put up pretty good numbers until he reached Triple-A, in 1995. The following year he blew out his arm, and he’s been trying to work his way back up ever since. The 27-year-old southpaw has now moved on to the Athletics, where he is working as a swingman for the Edmonton Trappers in the Triple-A PCL.

McConnell stalled out after four seasons in the Phillies organization, the last three of which were spent at Double-A Reading of the Eastern League.
Hecker, a two-way player, started out in the Red Sox system as a first baseman and showed flashes of power but absolutely no command of the strike zone. Midway through the 1995 season he switched to pitching and worked mostly out of the bullpen, with limited success. He was last seen pitching for the Brewers’ Class-A affiliate in Stockton in 1997, at the age of 26.

Melendez ended up with the Dodgers and hasn’t hit for average or for power. His career OPS over six minor league seasons is 702, pitiful for a first baseman.

Shuey and Wallace have been plagued by injuries ever since they turned pro. Each has enjoyed some success at the major league level.
I always thought Mirabelli (who succeeded Tyler Houston as the catcher at Valley High School in Las Vegas, alma mater of a pretty decent pitcher named Greg something-or-other) deserved a shot, but save for a few cups of coffee it never happened.

Klingenbeck likewise pops up every season or two for mop-up duty.

Nevin, of course, was the first player taken in the 1992 draft, and for a long time it looked like he might not make it. But a little maturity and a move to catcher worked wonders for his career.

Top High School Prospects

  1. Johnny Damon, OF, Dr. Phillips HS, Orlando, Florida
  2. Ryan Luzinski, C, Holy Cross HS, Delran, New Jersey
  3. Chris Smith, SS, Vallejo (California) HS
  4. David Spykstra, RHP, Cherry Creek HS, Englewood, Colorado
  5. Derek Jeter, SS, Central HS, Kalamazoo, Michigan
  6. Trey Beamon, OF, W.T. White HS, Dallas
  7. Chad Alexander, OF, Lufkin (Texas) HS
  8. A.J. Hinch, C, Midwest City (Oklahoma) HS

Damon and Jeter have both established themselves as solid major-league regulars and are still young enough to develop into stars.

Luzinski, as high school catchers often do, has struggled as a pro. After spending five years in the Dodgers system, he moved to the Orioles, where he is currently posting a 465 OPS as a 24 year old at Double-A Bowie in the Eastern League. Not good.

If anyone has information about Smith, I’d love to hear it. Judging from his career record, I’m guessing there’s an interesting story here. He came up through the Angels system, played well for a while (even making it to Double-A Midland at age 20). Then he missed the 1995 season and carved up the California League for half of 1996 before completely disappearing.

Spykstra worked 292 innings over five minor league seasons in the Dodgers organization (not counting 1995, which he missed entirely). He has never worked more than 100 innings in a single season and has never made it past A-ball. Last year, at age 23, he posted a 5.91 ERA in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. He hasn’t pitched this year.

Beamon has had his chances with a few teams and is now toiling in the Tigers organization.

Alexander’s offensive game has been slow to develop, but he’s finally starting to put things together at Double-A Jackson in the Houston system, though it may be too late for him to be anything more than a reserve player at this point.

Hinch, of course, went to Stanford and was the third round draft choice of the Oakland Athletics in the 1996 draft. Although he doesn’t look like star material, Hinch should have a reasonably productive career.

Well, that about does it for now. Hope it was as fun for you to look back at 1992 as it was for me. Next time we’ll take a look at 1993.