Looking into the Crystal Ball: Part 1

by Geoff Young on Oct 20, 1998

In his 1985 Baseball Abstract, Bill James introduced the Brock2 System, a method for projecting a player’s career stats based on what he’s done so far. James himself recognized its limitations and said, ultimately, that he used the system because “it’s fun to play around with.” The system has since been modified countless times (last I checked, they were up to “Brock6″), but I still wouldn’t go betting the farm that it will work even a small percentage of the time.

Now, if you’re like Bill James and think this sort of thing is “fun,” you can download a copy of the original Brock2 spreadsheet from Baseball1.com. If you’re not really into that, but think it might be fun to sneak a peak at the results for a few players, you’re in luck. I’ve included a baker’s dozen young players whose careers I thought it would be interesting to project. There was no real method to my selection other than these are all players I kind of like and was curious to see how their careers might turn out. I’m not going to offer any commentary on any of these, because frankly, what can I possibly say about them? I could tell you I expect Richard Hidalgo to hit at least one triple in his career, but that’s hardly useful.

So, take these projections for what they are: fun. This time we look at 13 NL players. Next time we’ll visit the AL, land of the uber-shortstops.

Career

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
Abreu, Bo 2196 6928 760 1971 364 54 234 979 1031 .284
Fullmer, Br 1683 5667 663 1561 446 16 198 824 487 .275
Guerrero, Vl 3063 10939 1697 3347 619 72 720 2170 881 .306
Helton, To 2405 7749 1003 2285 452 14 416 1360 796 .295
Hidalgo, Ri 2627 7673 1066 2266 488 0 297 1155 710 .295
Jones, An 3030 9616 1497 2521 502 75 637 1831 968 .262
Kendall, Ja 2802 9310 1391 2824 589 44 200 1159 964 .303
Kotsay, Ma 1806 6468 831 1812 278 66 151 784 478 .280
Lee, De 1855 5730 921 1437 351 10 286 923 687 .251
Marrero, El 1479 4452 510 1121 279 12 110 516 483 .252
Renteria, Ed 2373 8876 1392 2579 329 32 69 787 843 .291
Rolen, Sc 2903 10107 1750 2815 645 41 544 1774 1454 .279
Tatis, Fe 1898 6536 862 1797 364 30 196 851 518 .275

Peak (age 27)

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
Abreu, Bo 154 502 72 160 30 5 21 83 84 .318
Fullmer, Br 153 526 75 157 46 2 21 84 48 .299
Guerrero, Vl 154 575 120 198 37 5 46 137 49 .344
Helton, To 154 517 89 171 34 1 34 106 58 .330
Hidalgo, Ri 153 465 86 153 34 0 23 83 47 .330
Jones, An 153 507 107 151 30 5 42 117 56 .298
Kendall, Ja 153 532 104 179 38 3 15 79 61 .336
Kotsay, Ma 152 555 86 169 26 6 15 75 45 .304
Lee, De 152 486 96 133 33 1 28 87 63 .275
Marrero, El 152 468 65 128 32 2 13 61 54 .274
Renteria, Ed 152 577 111 182 23 2 5 59 61 .316
Rolen, Sc 154 558 133 175 42 3 38 117 92 .313
Tatis, Fe 152 536 86 160 33 3 18 78 46 .300

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