Looking into the Crystal Ball: Part 2

by Geoff Young on Oct 21, 1998

As promised in our last installment, here are the career projections of 13 up-and-coming AL players based on Bill James’ Brock2 method. If you’re interested, the spreadsheet is available at Baseball1.com.

If not, just sit back, relax, and look at the numbers. And if you want a really good laugh, look at them again in about 20 years.

Career

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
Damon, Jo 2022 7251 1102 1999 297 90 204 908 677 .276
Encarnacion 2319 8397 1317 2497 402 142 421 1459 565 .297
Erstad, Da 2293 8616 1360 2552 558 40 346 1342 813 .296
Garciaparra 2758 10933 1713 3255 620 100 652 2058 738 .298
Grieve, Be 2463 8773 1431 2570 578 20 339 1346 1317 .293
Jeter, De 2851 10961 1909 3331 465 92 296 1445 1149 .304
Ordonez, Ma 1549 5435 770 1562 270 14 196 768 345 .287
Ortiz, Da 2220 7078 1243 2043 464 0 282 1078 963 .289
Posada, Jo 1243 3878 528 978 223 0 180 596 511 .252
Rodriguez, A 3316 12841 2273 3923 717 57 866 2578 1050 .305
Sweeney, Mi 1611 4788 556 1243 248 0 173 652 432 .260
Tejada, Mi 607 2117 335 510 108 11 76 281 161 .241
Walker, To 1762 6031 763 1713 388 22 140 734 547 .284

Peak (age 27)

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
Damon, Jo 152 558 104 167 24 8 19 81 58 .300
Encarnacion 154 579 117 190 31 13 34 116 41 .329
Erstad, Da 153 592 116 192 43 3 29 106 60 .325
Garciaparra 154 643 135 216 42 8 46 143 44 .336
Grieve, Be 154 563 118 182 41 2 27 99 94 .323
Jeter, De 153 617 139 207 28 7 22 96 71 .336
Ordonez, Ma 152 548 92 169 29 2 22 85 37 .309
Ortiz, Da 153 501 111 158 36 0 24 87 76 .317
Posada, Jo 108 348 58 95 23 0 18 58 52 .273
Rodriguez, A 154 623 144 212 38 4 51 148 54 .340
Sweeney, Mi 152 461 64 131 26 0 19 69 45 .283
Tejada, Mi 29 102 21 27 6 0 5 16 10 .266
Walker, To 138 494 80 155 36 2 14 70 49 .314

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