Paul Konerko and the Myth of the Dodger Prospect Hype Machine

Now that the season is finally over and I’m not able to cash in the $20 bet I had on the Padres to win it all at 28-1 odds (I placed the bet just prior to the deal for Kevin Brown), I’m starting to go through my files and finding all sorts of wonderful stuff.

Here’s a message I posted to one of the AOL boards (I believe it was STATS’ Cincinnati Reds board), dated July 6, 1998. I think it’s still relevant.

In defending the Dodgers’ and then-GM Tommy Lasorda’s trade of Paul Konerko and Dennis Reyes to the Reds for Jeff Shaw, it was suggested that “Konerko is but the latest in a long line of Dodger farm system sluggers that tore it up in Albuquerque only to struggle in the majors…. In this group are such players as Eric Karros, Mike Marshall, Billy Ashley and Greg Brock. That’s the kind of player Konerko is gonna be. He might be as good as Karros, or as bad as Ashley.”

I couldn’t let this go, of course, so here was my reply:

Let’s give the guy more than 150 ABs in the big leagues before we write him off. Also, it should be noted that Konerko also tore it up at San Antonio, a horrible home run park, the year before.

Following are the first full seasons at Albuquerque of Karros, Marshall, Ashley, Brock, and Konerko, respectively.

Player Yr Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG
Karros 91 24 132 488 88 154 33 8 22 101 58 80 3 .316 .391 .551
Marshall 81 21 128 467 114 174 25 7 34 137 57 80 21 .373 .445 .675
Ashley 93 22 125 482 88 143 31 4 26 100 35 143 6 .297 .344 .539
Brock 82 25 135 480 118 149 21 8 44 138 105 81 4 .310 .432 .662
Konerko 97 21 130 483 97 156 31 1 37 127 64 61 2 .323 .407 .621

Karros was 3 years older and put up worse numbers, Marshall put up better numbers at the same age, Ashley’s numbers are laughable, and Brock was slightly better but 4 years older.

Now here are the career MLB stats of the same guys (except Konerko, for obvious reasons):

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG OBP SLG
Karros 954 3596 464 955 173 9 162 578 297 .266 .321 .454
Marshall 1035 3593 433 971 173 8 148 530 247 .270 .321 .446
Ashley 275 606 54 141 22 1 26 82 62 .233 .307 .401
Brock 1013 3202 420 794 141 6 110 462 434 .248 .338 .399

Marshall and Karros have been similar hitters as big leaguers. Ashley has been predictably mediocre (at best), and Brock essentially peaked around the time he reached the majors. It is conceivable that Konerko could be as bad as Marshall or Karros, though Konerko has displayed better plate discipline than either of them did at the same level. Comparisons to Ashley and Brock are far-fetched at best: Ashley because of his atrocious strike zone judgment, and Brock because by the time Konerko turns 25 (the same age Brock was when he was tearing up the PCL) he should have more career homers than Brock.

Realistically, assuming Konerko is given the opportunity to play every day, and assuming he is able to make the adjustments all young players must make when they step up to a higher level (and there’s no reason based on his past history to believe he cannot), Konerko should consistently put up numbers on the order of .280/.370/.550 for the next 8-12 years, numbers which Karros once approached, at age 27. Konerko’s ceiling is more along the lines of Jeff Bagwell. If he doesn’t develop as expected, he could settle into another Eric Karros, which would certainly be disappointing but by no means embarrassing.

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