Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

Okay, here are the pitchers. Take with the appropriate buckets of salt…

                      IP   ERA  BB   SO
Jarvis, Kevin        180  4.94  55  121
Jones, Bobby         180  5.05  52  104
Lawrence, Brian      165  3.73  52  122
Tomko, Brett         160  4.40  58  119
Tollberg, Brian      145  4.06  39  100
Middlebrook, Jason    80  4.81  34   47
Baerlocher, Ryan      75  5.18  32   49
Hoffman, Trevor       65  3.21  18   66
Tankersley, Dennis    65  4.14  27   56
Fikac, Jeremy         60  3.32  24   51
Embree, Alan          55  4.91  21   50
Nunez, Jose           55  3.94  22   48
Davey, Tom            50  4.27  24   45
Herndon, Junior       50  5.19  19   22
Clontz, Brad          45  4.55  21   32
Eaton, Adam           40  5.16  18   29
Bynum, Mike           30  5.15  14   21
Trujillo, J.J.        30  3.70  12   23
Bartosh, Cliff        25  4.12  14   19
Howard, Ben           25  4.50  17   21
Peavy, Jake           25  4.06  11   18

Obviously all the talk around here is about Mike Darr. Everything you hear about the guy from those who knew him is good. There are some folks taking shots at him now, I guess because a dead man can’t defend himself. Regardless of the circumstances regarding the accident, his loss is tragic and is affecting a lot of people in the community, to say nothing of those close to him.

On a lighter note, how about some WAG projections for 2002? Okay, here goes…

                     AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Gonzalez, Wiki      375  252  319  398
Lampkin, Tom        175  238  315  382
Walbeck, Matt       100  221  274  309

Nevin, Phil         550  298  376  566
Jimenez, D'Angelo   400  280  361  404
Burroughs, Sean     450  289  352  421
Vazquez, Ramon      400  267  338  380
Cruz, Deivi         300  256  283  406
Jackson, Damian     300  248  330  367

Lankford, Ray       500  262  359  488
Kotsay, Mark        550  298  365  461
Klesko, Ryan        550  294  398  554
Trammell, Bubba     300  276  352  508
Gant, Ron           250  249  331  457
DeHaan, Kory        150  218  274  335

I’m most comfortable with the numbers for Nevin, Kotsay, and Klesko. Almost everyone else is being thrust into a new role in 2002, and it will be interesting to see how they respond. The playing time for all the infielders except Nevin is up in the air. My suspicions are that Wiki will see his production go down with increased playing time, while Jackson and Trammell will improve in more limited roles. It also wouldn’t shock me (although it probably would surprise most everyone I know) to see Burroughs post a 450+ SLG. Not that it will happen, just that if it does, I won’t be as surprised as most folks.

Maybe if I’m feeling real adventurous I’ll try pitchers in a few days.

Another dark day for the Padres. Last July it was Gerik Baxter. Last night it was Mike Darr. Killed in a one-car accident. SUV. Not wearing a seatbelt. Again. Ben Howard was in the back seat, wearing his seatbelt. Treated and released at the scene. Darr leaves behind a wife and two sons. This is just awful. My thoughts and prayers go out to the Darr family.

Two major projects at work, one not going so well; final project for Web Publishing class due Wednesday (haven’t started it yet); two Scoresheet drafts in full force, with three more kicking in this week; still getting over a cold.

But enough about me; how about those Toreros! Now 10-0, they’re currently ranked #22 by Baseball America. I did get to see them this past weekend and they looked good, beating Oregon State, 8-2. Second baseman Mike McCoy is a fun one to watch. A real sparkplug who never gives away an at-bat. I’m looking forward to catching more of their games this season.

Gary Huckabay of Baseball Prospectus pointed me to this cool college baseball site. Among other things, you can find out just how hard Tiger right-hander Kenny Baugh was worked at Rice. It’s not pretty.

Finally, I have some other potentially exciting news about the site but I can’t share it just yet. If everything goes according to plan, it should occur by Opening Day. Stay tuned…

Baseball America has released its top 100 college prospects. Some names of interest to San Diegans on it. San Diego State left-hander Royce Ring checks in at #19, while USD southpaw Ricky Barrett nails down the #27 spot. Aztec right-hander Rory Shortell and shortstop Taber Lee (Travis’ younger brother) are at #57 and #64, respectively. Former Padre draftees Kevin Howard (third base, Miami, 1999 22nd round), Alberto Concepcion (catcher, USC, 1999 2nd round), and Hunter Brown (third base, Rice, 2001 31st round) check in at #23, #28, and #52, respectively.

Keep those e-mails coming! First New Jersey, now Ottawa, Canada. I tell you, world domination is not so far-fetched an idea…

Now for a few quasi-random thoughts:

The Inky Signing

The Padres’ signing of Pete Incaviglia is unusual; unless someone else (Damian Jackson, Mike Darr, Ray Lankford) is traded, I don’t see him making the club. Best I can tell, he’s insurance for Ron Gant. Some folks have expressed concern at Inky and Gant taking playing time away from Bubba Trammell but that’s not the case. As it now stands, Lankford and Gant are in left, Kotsay is in center, and Klesko and Trammell are in right. Lankford/Gant and Klesko/Trammell probably will be close to straight platoons. Jackson will back up in center.

With or without Gant, Trammell should get about 300 at-bats this year. The one other possibility is that Sean Burroughs isn’t ready and Phil Nevin moves back across the diamond, setting off a chain reaction which would result in Trammell playing everyday in right. I don’t think that’s going to happen but you never know.

Sean Burroughs vs George Brett

I don’t want to flog a dead horse but the comparison between Burroughs and Brett has been made by more than one person lately, so I thought I’d take a quick look at the two players. First, a quick piece of philosophy.

Brett played 20 years in the big-leagues and is in the Hall of Fame; Burroughs is 21 years old and has yet to play a single game in the bigs. In making a comparison between the two players, I’m talking about career path to this point. Just because a prospect puts up numbers similar to a Hall of Famer at a similar stage of development doesn’t mean the prospect is headed to the Hall of Fame. But it does put the prospect on a nice path. A lot can happen between Triple-A and Cooperstown. The player can stagnate offensively and not grow according to fairly well established patterns of development. See Gregg Jefferies. The player can be passed over in favor of other prospects and see his skills deteriorate from lack of use. See Mario Valdez or Karim Garcia, or the cult figure Roberto Petagine. The player can suffer injuries that either temporarily or permanently sap his skills. Brent Gates and Paul Wilson are good examples. The point is, in baseball as in life, there is no such thing as a sure thing. The best we can do is look at history, examine parallels, and make educated guesses. Which is precisely what I do when I compare a guy like Burroughs to someone like Brett, or Jim Thome for that matter.

Okay, enough of that; let’s look at some numbers. I don’t have access to Brett’s minor league record but I do know that in his first full big-league season, at age 21, he hit .282/.312/.363. That was 1974, when the AL as a whole hit .258/.321/.371. Last year, the NL hit .261/.327/.425. Without gettting into park factors, and assuming that offensive levels are roughly the same in 2002 as in 2001, Burroughs would need to hit roughly .285/.318/.416 this season to be on par with Brett’s rookie year. Burroughs’ MLE last year was .297/.352/.416. In other words, he’s pretty much already there. If Burroughs can make the transition from Triple-A to the big leagues and produce roughly the way he did last year, he should have no trouble matching Brett’s rookie season.

Brett really exploded in his sophomore season, hitting .308/.353/.456. The AL hit .258/.327/.379 in 1975. Again assuming offensive levels remain the same, in order to keep pace, Burroughs would need to hit .312/.353/.511 in his second year. And that slugging percentage, while ultimately within his reach, is probably too much to expect from a 22-year-old who hasn’t shown much power yet.

However, and this is where it gets interesting, if Burroughs even shows middling power this year — I’m talking 30+ doubles and mid-teens homers — then an 864 OPS might not be unreasonable, although it may be shaped differently, e.g., .312/.383/.481. If that happens, then we’ve got something special on our hands. But, as guys like Jefferies, Valdez, Garcia, Petagine, Gates, Wilson, and countless others will attest, that’s a big if.

Padres inked former Tiger shortstop Deivi Cruz to a 1-year deal worth $600K. Good low-risk signing. The right-handed hitter will back up left-handed hitters Ramon Vazquez and Sean Burroughs on the left side of the infield. Cruz is only 26 years old but he’s already got five big-league seasons under his belt. He’s nothing special, but with a grand total of 36 big-league at-bats under the collective belts of Vazquez and Burroughs, a guy like Cruz makes a lot of sense.

This might clear the way for a Damian Jackson trade (to Boston, perhaps, who failed to sign the similar Pokey Reese?). On the other hand, Jackson is also a good defensive outfielder, which could come in handy late in games against lefties, when Ron Gant is in left field. Regardless, if Cruz gets more than 250 or so plate appearances, something has gone horribly wrong.

So, if you’re a small market team, this is what it comes down to. There will be no Jason Giambi. There will be no Chan Ho Park. Instead, there will be guys like Alan Embree, Steve Reed, Cruz, and Gant. A bunch of low-risk guys who don’t cost much.

Embree as a replacement for the injured Kevin Walker isn’t a bad idea. He’s got a live arm and comes very cheap after a terrible 2001. Reed taking over for the injured Jeremy Fikac is nice, too. And if recent history is any indication, a decent middle reliever might net a decent young player (Jay Witasick for D’Angelo Jimenez?).

On the offensive side, Gant is no great shakes as a player anymore but he does have a lot of experience and still hammers southpaws. He’s inexpensive and he won’t be expected to fill a significant role, probably platooning with Ray Lankford in left field. Gant essentially replaces Mike Colangelo as the second right-handed outfielder on the club. I really liked what I saw of Colangelo in his brief stay in San Diego, although (a) he has proven to be quite fragile and (b) we’re still talking about a fourth or fifth outfielder here. As long as Gant doesn’t cost too much (which he doesn’t), I’m okay with this.

As for Cruz, I see nothing but positives. He’ll be reunited with former Tiger shortstop Alan Trammell. He should be hungry and eager to prove himself after slowly going down the tubes in Detroit. He’ll be in an organization that emphasizes plate discipline, which Lord knows Cruz could use. Basically, he’s a great insurance policy with very little risk. Put another way, is he really any worse than Alex Arias, whom he essentially replaces? I think not.