Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

Just as a heads-up, transmissions may be sporadic for the next couple of weeks. I’ve got to do a full wipe and reinstall of Windows on my main machine (been putting it off for a long time) plus I’m heading out to Vegas this coming Thursday. Yeah, I’ll miss you, too. Don’t go getting all weepy on me.

Pads have officially recalled Brian Howard. He is scheduled to make his big-league debut Saturday in Pittsburgh. Turns out Kevin Jarvis isn’t okay and has been placed on the 15-day DL. I asked Josh Boyd, in yesterday’s Baseball America chat, for his take on Howard:

Ben Howard is about to join the San Diego rotation. How do you think he’ll do in the short-term? What about long-term? Jim Callis recently compared him to Milwaukee’s Nick Neugebauer. Do you agree with this assessment, or is there someone else you might compare him to?

Josh responded as follows:

These one-and-out starts for young pitchers seem to be real hit or miss. I’d bet on Howard giving the Padres an average start, maybe five innings or so, but I think in the long run, as he continues to develop his secondary stuff in the minors, he’ll turn into a solid big league pitcher for them. I don’t see his ceiling as high as Neugebauer’s, who can be an ace, but that’s an interesting comparison.

At the time I wrote the question, I didn’t realize that Jarvis had been placed on the DL and that Howard would be taking his, and not Brian Tollberg’s, spot in the rotation. But I have a sneaking suspicion that if Howard pitches well, when Jarvis returns it is Tollberg and not Howard who will be sent to the minors. It just feels like the Adam Eaton situation a couple years ago, but we’ll see.

Josh also had encouraging words about the recuperating Xavier Nady: "He’s legit. He’ll hit. He mashed this spring, but he is coming off Tommy John surgery."

I have to second this. The only question in my mind with Nady is where he’ll end up playing in the field once his elbow is okay. For what it’s worth, although his numbers aren’t there yet (and even still, they’re really not all that bad), I’ve been more impressed with his at-bats this year than last. But as I’ve said many times, Nady never seemed to do much at the plate when I saw him in 2001.

That’s all for now. Wish me luck on the reinstall. And wish Ben Howard luck on his first big-league start. It should be fun…

If the Mariners lose one more great player, nobody will ever be able to beat them. Is that an incredible team or what? Take away their best remaining player, and they just get better. They’re 10-0 on the road this year. Amazing.

Much of the buzz right now centers around the play of the Montreal Expos and the Minnesota Twins. Both teams are 13-8 and playing well. The Twins are winning more games than their run differential would suggest they should be, but the Expos, thanks to a resurgent offense led by the likes of Michael Barrett, Peter Bergeron, and Lee Stevens, are legit. So far, anyway. We’ll see how long they can keep it going. How sweet would it be to see those two teams hook up in the World Series? Yeah, I know; but it’s April, the month of dreamers.

Brian Lawrence continues to shine, holding the Phillies to two runs in six innings and change last night. Deivi Cruz continued his hot hitting, and even Tom Lampkin knocked a double and a homer. Sean Burroughs rapped three hits, to raise his numbers to .311/.323/.393. That 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio is ugly, but it won’t last.

It’s looking like Kevin Jarvis will make his scheduled start this Saturday. Ben Howard will have to wait. Maybe not for long, though. This morning’s U-T reported that Bruce Bochy and Kevin Towers have discussed the possibility of demoting Brian Tollberg.

Bernie Castro continues to make a positive impression at Double-A Mobile. Last night, he went 4-for-4, with two doubles and a walk. Through 20 games, Castro is hitting .346/.429/.410, with 13 steals.

Also at Mobile, center fielder Darren Blakely, acquired in the Sterling Hitchcock deal, is hitting .407 over the past 14 games. Right fielder Ben Johnson is struggling to make contact. Left fielder Vince Faison is nursing a strained hamstring. Catcher Brian Loyd, sent to Toronto back in 1998 in the ill-fated Randy Myers trade, was placed on the DL with a strained forearm. Right-hander Johnny Hunter, who had been at Portland, takes Loyd’s spot on the roster. No word on Eric Cyr, who left Tuesday night’s start early. I’m assuming that’s good news; it was supposed to be a precautionary move.

At Elsinore, it’s pretty much the Tagg Bozied show. Through Tuesday night’s game, he was batting a cool .344/.443/.734. Xavier Nady is hitting just .235; however, thanks to four homers and 17 walks, his OPS checks in at 844. He’s striking out at a fairly alarming rate, especially for someone who has such a controlled swing and disciplined approach. I wonder how much his being relegated to full-time DH plays is affecting him. It seems like not having to play the field would make things easier, but there are some guys (Tony Gwynn among them) who just don’t feel like they’re a part of the game if they don’t play the field. Not that I’m making excuses for Nady (not that he needs any; heck, only Bozied on his own team has a higher OPS), but this is something to consider.

And down at Ft. Wayne, Josh Barfield has slowed way down after a hot start. He’s now hitting just .282/.320/.296 over 17 games through Tuesday. A couple of guys who are starting to make some noise are catcher Nick Trzesniak and right-hander Jon Huber. The 21-year old Trzesniak, in his first full-season action, is hitting .286/.385/.429. In an organization lacking in depth behind the plate, Trzesniak, a supplemental first-round pick back in 1999 (as compensation for the loss of Steve Finley), should have plenty of opportunity.

Huber, a fifth-round pick in 2000, doesn’t get the attention that fellow right-hander Justin Germano does, but he is intriguing nonetheless. The 20-year-old out of Florida is making his full-season debut as well, and save one disastrous outing at Michigan on April 11, has pitched very well. I know next to nothing about Huber; According to John Sickels he has a live arm but sometimes struggles with his control. His last two starts, coming right after the Michigan debacle, have been outstanding. I’ll be watching him. If anyone’s had a chance to see Huber pitch, drop me a line. I’d love to hear more about him.

Deivi Cruz hits a grand slam in the first inning and you still find a way to lose. The Pads went down fighting, but they lost again. Brian Tollberg got hit hard again, and with the help of Matt DeWitt, Jason Boyd, and some shoddy defense, turned a 5-0 first inning lead into an 8-5 defeat at the hands of the Phillies.

Even if Kevin Jarvis can make his start this weekend, it’s hard not to wonder how much longer before Ben Howard gets the call. I hope Tollberg can turn it around, but as I’ve said before, he’s got younger guys with better stuff on his tail, and his margin for error is almost nil.

The Padres swapped lefties with the Red Sox, exchanging the erratic Juan Moreno for minor-leaguer Andy Hazlett. Presumably Hazlett will pitch at Portland until an opening arises.

Eric Cyr left last night’s start against Huntsville after two innings. A line drive off the bat of Jackson Melian struck Cyr in the left leg. No word on the severity of the injury. If you happen to be in Mobile, hot dogs are 50 cents a pop at the ballpark tomorrow.

Geoff Young, purveyor of important information. Thank you very much.

Finally, some props to a couple of killer web sites. They’re over there in the Hot Links area, but I just like to mention them every now and then, because these are sites that I find extremely useful.

First, Chris Reed is doing some cool stuff over at ProtospectWatch.com. He has an article up on the importance of plate discipline that references something I wrote some time ago. Thanks for the virtual ink, Chris.

Second, pay a visit to Jay-Dell Mah’s AtThePlate.com for the buzz on what’s going on throughout the minors. All season long, he’s your man on the scene.

Keep up the great work, guys!

A real quick rundown on what’s going on around the Padres’ system…

Portland

Former big-leaguer Pete Incaviglia was released on Friday after hitting just .122/.200/.146 in 15 games. Right-hander Jason Middlebrook left Sunday’s start early thanks to a line drive off his pitching arm courtesy of Omaha’s Ken Harvey. It is not known whether Middlebrook, who was pitching his best game of the season when he left after the fourth inning, will make his next scheduled start. [The Oregonian]

Mobile

Right-hander Dennis Tankersley attributes his success in Sunday’s start at Orlando to better command and movement. Catcher Jarrod Bitter has been promoted to Triple-A Portland to replace the injured Adan Amezcua. Left fielder Vince Faison is out for a few days with a strained hammy. [al.com]

As previously reported, right-hander Ben Howard is next in line to make a start with the big club if needed. Howard and lefty Eric Cyr are both on the 40-man roster, while Jake Peavy is not. [San Diego U-T]

Peavy, by the way, pitched what is probably the best game of the season by anyone in the organization last night, working eight shutout innings at Orlando, allowing four hits while striking out 10 and walking none. This on the heels of his worst outing of the year, against überprospect Mark Prior. It is encouraging that both Tankersley and Peavy followed up poor outings with brilliant ones.

Lake Elsinore

Outfielder Abner Arroyo is healthy and playing with the Storm. He didn’t make my list of Top 30 prospects but is definitely someone to watch. Another kid worth keeping an eye on is second baseman Pedro De los Santos. Although he’s only played two games at Elsinore, he’s already second on the club in stolen bases. Perhaps more interesting, however, is the fact that he’s an 18-year-old playing in the Cal League.

Speaking of 18-year-olds in the Cal League, check out shortstop Jose Lopez in the Seattle system. He’s hitting .301/.357/.507 with eight stolen bases in nine attempts and just three errors at San Bernardino. If he keeps this up, he’ll be showing up on the radar before too long.

Ft. Wayne

Southpaw Nobuaki Yoshida is feeling strong after shoulder miseries plagued him for much of 2001. He credits off-season conditioning and an improving command of the English language for his success on and off the field in the U.S. [News-Sentinel]

Center fielder Keto Anderson cites his big brother Marlon, the Phillies’ second baseman, as a positive influence in his development as a player and as a person. [News-Sentinel]

I’ve been critical of the Ben Davis trade, mainly because I’m not all that thrilled with Ramon Vazquez. His upside looks like 1998 Chris Gomez, which isn’t all that bad but isn’t really worth Davis in my opinion. But yesterday one of the other guys who came over in the deal, Brett Tomko, made a statement, fanning 13 Dodgers in seven innings. I’ve seen Tomko pitch twice so far this season, and he’s looked good both times. When he first arrived, I figured he’d be at the back of the rotation or maybe even in the bullpen. I mean, the guy spent most of last year at Triple-A, despite having logged over 600 innings at the big-league level prior to 2001, so how good could he be, right? While it’s unreasonable to expect him to maintain anything near his current pace, I will say that I was wrong about him. Tomko looks like a solid #3 guy or better. The fact that he couldn’t crack the Seattle staff speaks volumes about the Mariners, because this guy can pitch. And I’m starting to think that it’s he, and not Vazquez, that will make the loss of Davis palatable in the long-run. Once again, it looks like Kevin Towers has pulled a pitcher out of nowhere and come up big.

Speaking of big, Ben Howard continues to dominate the Southern League. In his most recent start, Saturday at Orlando, matched up against 2001 first-rounder Dewon Brazelton, Howard worked into the seventh without allowing a run. For the second straight start, he fanned only three batters. But, more importantly, he issued just two free passes. Howard’s strikeout totals aren’t as obscene as they’ve been in the past (23 in 24 innings), but neither are his walks (10). And the good hit prevention is still there (15 allowed so far). It’s a long season, but right now it looks like the strides Howard made last year in the command department were not a fluke. If Brian Tollberg doesn’t start attacking hitters and getting guys out pretty soon, Howard could be up sooner rather than later. And although Howard hasn’t gotten the attention that Jake Peavy and Dennis Tankersley have, he’s got electric stuff. Read more about his latest start over at al.com

And speaking of Tank, coming off the heels of his worst start of the season, he shut down Orlando yesterday, allowing one run on six hits over seven innings. He walked one and struck out six.

Elsewhere in the world of baseball, wasn’t it great to see Jose Rijo win his first big-league start in nearly seven years? I caught a little of the game, and it was strange to see Rijo moving the ball and changing speeds rather than just overpowering hitters. But it worked. The Cubs’ pitcher, Juan Cruz, had some nasty stuff going but caught too much of the plate with his pitches. Austin Kearns’ first big-league homer was an impressive blast, clear out of Wrigley down the left field line. Kearns is a right-handed version of Adam Dunn. Not quite as big, but man, does he get some kind of leverage on his swing. He and Dunn are going to be something to watch in a couple years, if not sooner.

So, who thought that Sean Burroughs would hit his first homer before drawing his first walk in the big leagues? Yeah, me neither.

The Padres need Wiki Gonzalez back. Or Ben Davis. Tom Lampkin and Javier Cardona are 2-for-44 on the year.

Tag Bozied saw his first action at third base last night at Bakersfield. No errors.

Anyone notice Matt Clement’s second straight 12-strikeout game for the Cubs yesterday? He’s now fanned 30 batters in just over 19 innings. Oh, and he’s issued only three walks. Nice to see him finally harnessing his stuff. I’m sure glad the Padres have Mark Kotsay to show for him, and not Julian Tavarez.

Clearing the ol’ desk…

Check out some coverage of the recent Mark Prior/Jake Peavy matchup (courtesy of al.com):

• Pitching phenoms face off
• Prior notice

Ah, youth. Here’s a guy petitioning to get the MLB Amateur Draft televised. Don’t get me wrong, this is a noble cause, and it’d be great if something came of it. But let’s face it, most folks just don’t give a damn.

The other day I received the following e-mail from a reader:

This is one of those real off beat questions, but I figured you ought to know.

The other day I was out at the ol’ ball park and some of the fans in the stands were playing a game called mound ball. What is mound ball? It’s got something to do with where the ball ends up after an inning. Thanks.

God bless the Internet. If you need to know something and you look long enough, eventually you’ll find it. Here’s what I uncovered:

What made the afternon interesting was we played “mound ball.” Here is how we played: everybody put in a buck; and everybody drew a number to determine what order we would follow; then at the end of the inning if the person returning the ball to the pitcher mound put the ball on the mound (defined by being on the dirt and not touching any grass) the person who was “up”
would win the pot; if not then it would role to the next guy. After that every body would put in another buck and it would continue to roll. Well we got down to the 8th inning and I won! Makes a slow game a lot more interesting.

For the curious among you, and in the interest of giving credit where it’s due, this comes from Ideas, etc., Kevin Holtsberry’s entertaining blog.

Shifting gears yet again, I’m playing around with some graphical representations of the minor-league pitching logs I’m keeping this year. Have a look.

1. Style 1 — Simple lines with trends. Advantage here is that it’s clean and simple; disadvantage is that if two sets of values happen to be identical, one of them essentially disappears.
2. Style 2 — Three-dimensional with data tables. Main advantage is that all values are easily distinguishable. Main drawback is that the perspective can be a bit disorienting.
3. Style 3 — Bar graphs with trends. Advantage is that each individual value is easily discernable; disadvantage is that, well, it’s kinda ugly.

Whaddya think? Just for reference, the three values charted are Shandler’s PQS (scale of 0-5, 5 being best), and BBBA’s Qmax stuff (S) and control (C) axes (scale of 1-7, 1 being best). Let me know what works for you, or if you think I’m clinically insane for even doing this.

It’s a beautiful day today, so I think I’m gonna go catch the SDSU/BYU game. Vance Law is the BYU coach. I think I had him on one of my Roto teams back in the mid-80s…

Lots going on. Not the best of times for a couple of former Padres, Davey Lopes and Randy Smith. Lopes was fired yesterday as manager of the Brewers, Smith last week as GM of the Tigers. Lopes should hook on with someone; he seems like a pretty bright guy. Not sure about Smith. He sure did some good things here in San Diego, but he took a lot of abuse for the moves he made in Detroit. I haven’t studied his record enough to judge one way or the other.

In the Padres’ loss to the Dodgers last night, Bruce Bochy had his club play the final few innings with Bubba Trammell in left, Ron Gant in center, and Ryan Klesko in right. Is that a frightening defensive alignment or what? The punch line is that Gant made a spectacular diving catch to end the eighth inning and save a couple of runs.

Matt DeWitt, recently recalled to fill the spot previously occupied by Juan Moreno, made his Pads debut. Moreno didn’t get much of a chance, but honestly, he looked pretty bad every time he pitched. His fastball was down around 86-87 MPH and his command was terrible. Moreno did snap off a few nasty breaking pitches, but for the most part he made Mitch Williams look like John Candelaria. If you don’t know who those guys were, ask your dad; I’m too tired to come up with contemporary pitchers. Oh, I don’t know. He made John Rocker look like David Wells.

Kevin Jarvis hurt his elbow in Wednesday night’s game against the Giants. He’s expected to miss at least one start, possibly more. Rick Sutcliffe suggested tonight that Ben Howard might get the call. And why not? He’s had three outstanding starts at Double-A Mobile so far. Don’t tell anyone, but Howard might actually be better than the more highly touted Dennis Tankersley.

Plenty else to talk about, but that will have to wait another day.

Lots to cover here. First, how about Brian Lawrence. No, he doesn’t blow the ball by people, but he doesn’t give up many hits or walks either, and he induces an obscene number of ground balls: 48 ground outs to 16 fly outs so far this season, following a tidy 2.42 G/F ratio in his rookie campaign.

It was good to see the Padres win Saturday night, but what’s up with people cheering when Kevin Brown injured himself? That’s just embarrassing. Yeah, he said some things that made him look like a hypocrite when he left San Diego, but we knew he wasn’t going to sign here — that’s why Kevin Towers was able to pick him up for so little — and the guy took the Pads to only their second World Series. I was as upset as anyone to see him leave, but it’s not like it was a huge surprise to see him take more money elsewhere and he did a lot for this ballclub while he was here. Just embarrassing.

On to my initial impressions of some of the 2002 Storm players…

Marcus Nettles

I rated Nettles as the Padres #27 prospect coming into the season. From the strikeout totals he’s tallied as a pro, I didn’t expect his swing to be as short as it is. He has zero power and basically slaps at the ball, hoping it finds a hole somewhere. If he does get on base, he has the potential to be dangerous. Think Tom Goodwin.

Jason Bartlett

Bartlett, rated #16 in my preseason rankings, didn’t show much at the plate or in the field on Opening Day (although he did hit the ball well on Saturday at Qualcomm). His swing looks a tad long to me for a guy without much power. At shortstop he has decent range but an erratic arm. Bartlett is relatively new to the shortstop position, and I figured he’d start the season at Ft. Wayne, so I’ll cut him considerable slack. He looked a lot better on Saturday than on Thursday. This is why you need to see a guy play several times before making a solid judgment on him.

Xavier Nady

Nady, ranked #4 on my list of Padres’ prospects, homered to right-center in his first home at-bat in 2002. Best swing I’ve seen him take. He then walked in his next two trips to the plate. Nady still reminds me a little of Edgar Martinez at the plate. As soon as his elbow is healthy, he’ll be competing for a big-league job.

Taggert Bozied

Bozied (pronounced Bo-ZAYD) checked in at #14 on my list. Having seen him a couple of times now, I’m convinced that was too low. Like Nady, he drives the ball to all fields and has a good idea of the strike zone. Bozied moves well around the bag at first but it’s his bat that will get him to the Show. And judging from the early returns, it will get him there pretty quickly.

Bozied showed more life in his lower body than I’d remembered from the one time I saw him at USF. He walked and stole second in his first trip to the plate on Opening Day. Homered to left-center his next at-bat, then just got under a pitch in the fifth that was hit at least as hard as the home run. Laced a single to right in his final at-bat and advanced to second on a wild pitch, thanks in part to a great jump. Runs better than I’d expected and shows good instincts on the basepaths, though I wouldn’t mind seeing him abandon the headfirst slide.

Jake Gautreau

Gautreau, ranked #7 on my list, looks very comfortable at second base. On Opening Day he made a couple of routine plays in the first two innings, then wasn’t tested again until the seventh, when he made two nice plays. First he barehanded a slow roller and made a strong throw to first. Then he ranged to his right and made a diving stop on a grounder hit back up the the middle. He wasn’t able to make a throw but he did keep the ball on the infield. Gautreau also looked good on an around-the-horn double play in the eighth. Received the ball, turned, threw, got out of the way. It may not have been beautiful but it was effective.

At the plate, Gautreau has looked a bit overanxious. On Opening Day he struck out all three times he faced southpaw Derrick Van Dusen (Mariners’ #14 prospect according to Baseball America and owner of a pretty nifty slider) and wasn’t particularly close to making contact in any of the at-bats. In the two games I’ve seen him in, he appeared to be opening up a little too early. The one time I saw Gautreau hit the ball hard was on Saturday at the Q. He drove a ball to the gap in right-center off a lefty for a double. On that pitch, his hips opened early but he kept his hands back and hit the ball with authority.

Jason Wiedmeyer

Wiedmeyer, ranked #28 on my list, showed an 84-86 MPH fastball and decent secondary pitches. He’s a finesse lefty who will live and die by his command. Think Scott Schoeneweis or John Halama. Showed good poise pitching at Qualcomm.

Closing Thoughts

Again, these are only initial impressions I’ve gotten from watching a couple games early. For another perspective on the Storm’s talent, read what Bruce Bochy has to say (North County Times).

Before I go, I just wanted to mention one kid on the San Bernardino squad who caught my eye. Right-hander Clint Nageotte (ranked #5 by BA among Mariners’ prospects) looked real sharp at the Q on Saturday. Nageotte was dealing, fanning nine against just one walk and two hits in five innings. His fastball was running 90-93 MPH, and he featured a sharp-breaking slider. Good command. He reminds me a little of the Padres’ Jake Peavy. Someone to keep an eye on.

Interesting. BA‘s Jim Callis compared Ben Howard to Nick Neugebauer in a recent chat. I haven’t seen Neugie pitch, but from what I’ve read, the comparison is apt.

Second baseman Josh Barfield (.425/.425/.452) and catcher Nick Trzesniak (.385/.467/.692) are off to hot starts at Ft. Wayne.

First baseman Tagg Bozied (.375/.463/.813) is pretty much carrying the Storm right now, although DH Xavier Nady (.206/.357/.441) has turned up the heat after a slow start.

Right-hander Jake Peavy looked sharp in the Mobile home opener: 5.2-2-0-0-3-9. Center fielder Darren Blakely (.333/.429/.567), second baseman Bernie Castro (.355/.444/.387), and left fielder Vince Faison (.241/.333/.517) have started well at Double-A.

Catcher Adan Amezcua (.364/.417/.591), second baseman Cesar Crespo (.250/.438/.333), center fielder Kory DeHaan (.367/.441/.633), and shortstop Julius Matos (.308/.357/.577) are the hot bats at Portland.

It’s still very early, but there’s a look at some of the guys who are hot right now and who could make a difference in the future.

Here in San Diego, Kevin Jarvis continues to pitch extremely well and get no support. He’s 0-3 with a 3.32 ERA and strong peripheral numbers, but the Pads have managed to eke out exactly one run over those three starts.