Random Musings before Heading to Vegas

Okay, I’m off to Vegas. Just wanted to mention a few things before I leave.

  • I respect the heck out of the work Baseball America does but they missed the boat on the Padres. They’ve picked San Diego to finish fifth in the NL West. How they expect the Rockies to stay out of the cellar, I have no idea.
  • BA also analyzed all 30 GMs. Of Kevin Towers, they said that his best move was acquiring Kevin Brown from Florida for Derrek Lee and change. No doubt, Brown gave the Pads one great year and helped lead them to the World Series, but personally, I believe swapping Andy Sheets for Phil Nevin has had more of a lasting impact on the franchise. Plus, Derrek Lee is still the Marlins’ starting first baseman, and where is Sheets these days?
  • BA called Towers’ worst move the deal sending Sterling Hitchcock to the Yankees for Brett Jodie and Darren Blakely. First, this isn’t a bad deal. Hitchcock was coming back from surgery and generally was not expected to re-sign with the Padres. With Jodie back in pinstripes, Blakely is all that’s left of the deal. The question then becomes, Is Blakely better than any player Towers might have acquired with the draft pick received as compensation for the loss of Hitchcock. The answer to that probably is "no" but if I understand correctly (please correct me if I’m wrong), in order for the Padres to receive a pick they would have had to offer Hitchcock salary arbitration, and if they had to offer arbitration there’s a chance he might have accepted the offer and the Pads’ then would have to try and trade a guy coming back from surgery and under contract. Basically, Towers would have dealt Hitch sooner or later; yeah, Blakely ain’t much but I don’t really find fault with this trade. What I do find fault with, retrospectively, is the decision to give up Brian Loyd for Randy Myers. This has nothing to do with Loyd, a journeyman minor-league backstop. The fact is, the acquisition of Myers and his salary tied Towers’ hands in making other deals, including re-signing Bret Boone after the 2000 season. Meantime, Myers gave 14 innings of 6.28 ERA back in 1998 before spending the next two seasons on the DL while collecting millions. That, my friends, did a great deal more damage to the organization than anything involving Hitchcock ever will.
  • My friend Dan has pointed out that in Roto Rage: A Look Back at 1984 I screwed up the money aspect of our first roto league. He can’t remember exactly what it was either, but he knows that the franchise fee was more than $2.60 (which, come to think of it, I should have realized myself; that would have made the first place purse a paltry $13). Apologies for the error.
  • If you enjoy reading Ducksnorts, you might want to check out the Cleveland Indians Report. Nice, easy style; good information.
  • Kevin Jarvis, despite yesterday’s pounding at the hands of the Cubs, will start Opening Day at Arizona, April 1.
  • Wiki Gonzalez’ elbow is still giving him trouble, and he may not be ready to start the season. There is absolutely no catching depth in the organization, so this would be very bad news. Beyond Wiki, it’s Tom Lampkin, Matt Walbeck, and–wait for it–Trenidad Hubbard.
  • Speaking of Hubbard, he’s impressing the heck out of everyone this spring. A strong defensive outfielder who has played all nine positions in the minors, Hubbard boasts a career .340 OBP in the big leagues and is making a very strong push for that fifth outfielder spot.
  • Speaking of catchers, there’s now some talk that Ben Davis might need to spend some time at Triple-A for the Mariners. Talk about your tough gigs.
  • Finally, in case anyone was wondering about the Padres’ commitment to Sean Burroughs this year, here’s a quote from Bruce Bochy: "I don’t care if he’s hitting .100 after the first month, I’ll throw him out there every day." Burroughs is expected to bat sixth or seventh in the regular lineup, although he could move up to the #2 slot on days when Mark Kotsay doesn’t play.

That’s it for now. Gotta mow the lawn, take the wife to dim sum, then hit the highway. Wish me luck!

Roto Rage: A Look Back at 1984

The year was 1984, and I was a freshman in high school. A guy in one of my classes had bought a book called Rotisserie Baseball and was trying to get some people together to play. So he recruited a bunch of avid baseball fans, and after buying and reading the book, we all got together in an apartment complex rec room right around Opening Day and started the auction.

Information back then was a little different from the way it is today. Bill James’ Baseball Abstract was just gathering steam but there were no player projections to speak of, as there was no real market for that sort of thing. Prospects were mostly a matter of guesswork. If Baseball America was around, none of us knew about it. The minor-league scouting process consisted of scouring the old Green and Red books (I don’t even remember what they were really called), and maybe Mazeroski, looking for guys who had good stats. By good stats I mean hit for a good batting average and/or stole a lot of bases. Age was not a consideration. To give you an idea, we each drafted four rookies that year. Mine were Steve Farr, RHP, Cle; Joel Skinner, C, ChA; Steve Lubratich, INF, Ana; and Dwight Taylor, OF, KC. Farr ended up having a decent career, the others didn’t do much.

During the season, there was no Baseball Weekly; there was only The Sporting News and an upstart newspaper called USA Today. There was no Baseball Tonight on ESPN, and no World Wide Web. There was little talk of things like command of the strike zone for hitters or pitch counts. The point is, we were operating in a much less sophisticated era of baseball fandom. For the younger among you, this might sound like one of Dante’s planes of hell, but believe me, the game was still great. And Rotisserie Baseball, true to its claim, was the best thing to happen to the game since the game itself. At least it was as far as we were concerned.

We played an AL-only league and drafted 23 big-league players for a total of $2.60 (we were, after all, only high school kids). [The franchise fee was more than $2.60 but we can't recall the exact amount; gettin' old we are. --Ed.] I don’t remember my entire team, but I do recall having Lance Parrish (35 cents), Toby Harrah, Alan Trammell, Kirk Gibson, LaMarr Hoyt, Milt Wilcox, Jim Beattie, Rollie Fingers, and the inimitable Ken Schrom play significant roles, with Otis Nixon and Ray Searage also fitting into the mix. I believe that was the year I also released Joe Carter to pick up Brian Dayett (which sounds bad until you realize that a year later, in an NL league, I chose Chris James in the minor-league draft over some kid named Bonds).

I finished in the money my first season, either third or fourth out of either 10 or 12 teams–my memory has dulled somewhat since then. But I was hooked. And I played Roto for several years before giving it up about a decade ago for more sophisticated fantasy and simulation games (my longstanding addiction of course being to Scoresheet). Playing these games has enhanced my enjoyment of a sport I had already come to love. And it has brought me into contact with some very cool people over the years. For one thing, I met the best man at my wedding in that league back in 1984. Dan and I are still battling each other in fantasy baseball nearly 20 years later. (And, he is quick to remind me, he won that initial season, with the likes of Dave Righetti, Bob Stanley, and the late Dan Quisenberry in the bullpen; with Charlie Liebrandt and Steve Balboni playing key roles as free agent pickups; and despite getting only 46 at-bats from Paul Molitor, who seemed to have been a bargain at 4 cents.)

What a long, strange trip it’s been. And it’s fun to look back on those early days of Roto ball, when we genuinely believed that Vince Coleman was a star because he so utterly dominated one relatively insignificant aspect of the game. And it’s amazing to see how far baseball analysis has come since then, in large part thanks to the minds of guys like Bill James and Pete Palmer, among others, but also because of the need for deeper information by Roto junkies such as myself. I like to do a little research every now and then, but it’s never as sophisticated or far-reaching as stuff being done by the pros over at Baseball Primer or Baseball Prospectus or on any of the various newsgroups. But I like to think that my hunger for better information has helped to fuel such research over the years and helped to make us all better fans of a truly remarkable game.

Ducksnorts Goes Dot-Com

Classes are done. Scoresheet drafts are winding down (well, except for the live draft I have in Vegas this weekend). My current band’s first gig went reasonably well (they invited us back). Life is good, but I’ve barely had time to think about the site the past couple weeks let alone make updates.

Well, all that changes today. First off, the Toreros are now ranked #16 after their weekend sweep of USF. Pretty cool. Second, I finally have a new article up for you to read: Roto Rage: A Look Back at 1984. It’s a bit nostalgic without, I hope, being too saccharine.

Finally, last month I alluded to some potentially big news about the site. Well, it’s here. We are now ducksnorts.com. Go ahead, give it a spin. The old URL still works, too, but now if you’re having trouble remembering it, just punch ducksnorts.com into your browser, and voila, here you are. Neat, huh?

That’s all for now. I’ll check back in before I head out to Vegas, then I’m incommunicado for a few days while I try not to get taken to the cleaners in my first live draft in several years.

Geoff’s Scoresheet Rosters: AIL

With news out of spring training being relatively slow, I thought I’d indulge myself a bit and present you with some of my Scoresheet teams this year. Two of my leagues have finished drafting.

AL-AIL

This is a 10-team AL-only perpetual league. I won it all back in 1998 and have been climbing my way back up ever since. This is one of the most competitive leagues I play in, and playoff spots frequently aren’t decided until the final week or two of the season. In an effort to infuse some youth into a veteran team, I swapped Phil Nevin (we’re allowed two "crossovers") for Gabe Gross and a draft pick that became David Ortiz. Moving Nevin also allowed me to protect Kip Wells as a second crossover. So, with all that said, let’s meet the 2002 verison of the recently renamed Colon Unit (hey, it could’ve been worse; I almost called it "Hatteberg and LeCroy").

Starting Pitcher
 1. Randy Johnson
 2. Bartolo Colon
 3. Mark Mulder
 4. Kevin Appier
 5. Aaron Sele
 6. Kip Wells
 7. Ted Lilly
 8. Gil Meche
 9. Matt Riley
10. Dewon Brazelton

Relief Pitcher
1. Paul Shuey
2. Steve Karsay
3. Danys Baez
4. Jim Mecir
5. Todd VanPoppel
6. Jay Powell

Catcher
1. Matt LeCroy
2. Scott Hatteberg
3. Doug Mirabelli

First Base
1. Paul Konerko
2. David Ortiz

Second Base
1. Russ Johnson (3B)
2. Luis Rivas

Third Base
1. Troy Glaus

Shortstop
1. Jose Valentin (3B, OF)
2. Royce Clayton

Outfield
1. Darin Erstad
2. Mike Cameron
3. Tim Salmon
4. Mark Quinn
5. Shane Spencer
6. Dee Brown
7. Gabe Gross
8. Josh Hamilton

In reality, Lilly will be used out of the bullpen and Baez as the sixth or seventh starter. My lineup will look something like this:

1. Erstad/Cameron
2. Salmon
3. Glaus
4. Konerko
5. Ortiz
6. Valentin/Quinn
7. Cameron/LeCroy
8. Hatteberg/Clayton
9. Johnson

Well, that ended up taking up a lot of space, so I’ll save the other leagues for another day…

Prospects, Ruben Rivera, and Toreros

Xavier Nady is headed back to Lake Elsinore to start the season. The California League employs a full-time DH, so Nady will be able to play every day while his elbow continues to heal. From a selfish standpoint, I’ll be glad to get a chance to see him again. He could put up some silly numbers there.

Dennis Tankersley is struggling this spring, and there is talk that he could start the year at Double-A Mobile to continue his work with Darren Balsley, who is credited with helping Tank break through last season. Given his recent struggles and the fact that he was shut down early last year, it’s probably not a bad idea to let him regroup at a lower level for half a season before calling him up to Triple-A or the parent club.

Ruben Rivera. What a waste. He’s now calling what he did "a rookie mistake." Sorry, but most rookies know better than to steal equipment from a teammate. It would’ve been bad if he’d stolen from, say, Randy Choate, but he had to go out and take some of Derek Jeter’s stuff? Rivera’s agent supposedly is talking to some other clubs, but I don’t see it happening. What a waste.

USD lost yesterday at home to unranked USC, 15-5. The 18-5 Toreros currently are ranked #20 but this game won’t help their cause. USF is in town for three games this weekend. Southpaw Ricky Barrett is expected to take the mound Friday night.

First Impressions of the 2002 Padres

Got my first look at the 2002 Padres yesterday. A few impressions:

  • After five innings of broadcasting, newcomer Matt Vasgersian has injected more life into the game than Mel Proctor did in five years. Not everyone is going to like this guy; he’s definitely not old school. Talks a lot (but has interesting things to say), and showed a good rapport with both Mark Grant and Rick Sutcliffe yesterday. Only major gaffe was when he made a reference to Barry Bonds and "the San Diego clubhouse." But hey, it’s spring training. Overall, I was very impressed.
  • Phil Nevin looks comfortable at first base. He did pull his foot off the bag early once on what would’ve been a double play but otherwise, he showed good footwork and positioning. He also yanked an outside offering from Kirk Reuter over the left-field fence. Nice to see Nevin flashing the power but that’s a pitch he usually drives to right-center. Then again, Reuter isn’t exactly a flamethrower.
  • Damian Jackson is taking more pitches (although green-lighting him 3-and-0 still seems bizarre to me).
  • Sean Burroughs is ready. Reuter gave him trouble but the kid came back and knocked hits off Jay Witasick and another reliever. Very quiet at the plate and in the field. Soft hands, good footwork, strong arm. Reminds me a bit of Scott Rolen on defense. No disrespect to Nevin, but the Padres moved the right guy.
  • Deivi Cruz showed surprisingly good range, especially to his right. I wasn’t really expecting much from him, but I think he’s an upgrade over Alex Arias in the utility infielder role.
  • The more I see Brian Lawrence pitch, the more I like him. He was in midseason form yesterday. He’s never going to overpower batters, but he’s also not going to give them anything good to hit. He also does the little things like execute the sacrifice bunt, get over to first quickly to cover on grounders to the right side. He reminds me a lot of Rick Reuschel, or a right-handed John Tudor. Real fun to watch. Threw 57 pitches yesterday, 43 of them strikes.
  • Jason Middlebrook was dealing. He also showed an improved breaking pitch, although as was the case in his brief trial last season, he got a little cute at times. Middlebrook has power stuff but he sometimes tries to pitch like a finesse guy.
  • Jake Peavy got lit, allowing all five San Francisco runs in the ninth. I couldn’t bring myself to watch this, but I understand the defense let him down, with Cesar Crespo botching a double play ball and Pete Incaviglia failing to get to a couple of bloopers. Still, it wasn’t all bad. Peavy reportedly hit 96 MPH on the gun, although his comfort zone is in the 91-94 range. There’s no hurry with him.
  • Rick Sutcliffe made an interesting comment about Xavier Nady. He said that of players he’s seen, Nady’s batting practices are second only to Mark McGwire’s in terms of power display. Of course, the same might’ve been said of Ruben Rivera a couple years ago, so take that for whatever it’s worth. Still, Sutcliffe has been around a lot of good ballplayers in his time, so it’s something to bear in mind.

Elsinore Lefty-Righty Splits for 2001

Poor Expos (ESPN.com). I’m rooting hard for them and the Twins this year. My pipe dream is to have one of those teams win it all and make Bud Selig twitch and squirm as he hands them the trophy. Man, that would be great. What a slap in the face that would be.

Switching gears, here are the lefty-righty splits for prospects at Lake Elsinore in 2001:

Hitters

Vince Faison, OF

        AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO  BA OBP SLG
vs LHP  61 10  1  1  0  5 21 164 227 213
vs RHP 214 54 10  2  7 19 73 252 313 416

Ben Johnson, OF

        AB   H 2B 3B HR BB  SO  BA OBP SLG
vs LHP 108  34  8  1  2 14  27 315 393 463
vs RHP 395 105 27  5 10 40 114 266 333 435

Xavier Nady, 1B

        AB   H 2B 3B HR BB SO  BA OBP SLG
vs LHP 118  36  8  1  9  9 17 305 354 619
vs RHP 406 122 30  0 17 53 92 300 381 500

I’ve compared Faison to Ray Lankford in the past, but right now all he’s doing like Lankford is striking out a ton and getting abused by lefties. He sure looked good at the end of last season and in the Cal League playoffs, though. I’m still holding out hope for both Faison and Lankford.

Pitchers

Eric Cyr, LHP

        AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO  BA OBP SLG GB FB
vs LHP  63 12  3  0  0  9 32 190 292 238  7  9
vs RHP 306 56 17  0  1 15 99 183 221 248 58 86

Ben Howard, RHP

        AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO  BA OBP SLG GB FB
vs LHP 169 40  9  3  3 12 49 237 287 379 41 38
vs RHP 207 46  9  2  1 20 58 222 291 285 40 62

Jake Peavy, RHP

        AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO  BA OBP SLG GB FB
vs LHP 159 29  5  3  1 19 49 182 270 270 35 44
vs RHP 221 47  7  1  5 14 95 213 260 321 30 49

Mark Phillips, LHP

       AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO  BA OBP SLG GB FB
vs LHP 17  3  1  0  0  2  5 176 263 235  6  3
vs RHP 83 16  4  0  0 12 29 193 295 241 19 21

Dennis Tankersley, RHP

        AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO  BA OBP SLG GB FB
vs LHP  74 12  3  0  0  4 21 162 205 203 20 19
vs RHP 109 17  3  0  1  8 47 156 214 211 22 21

Cyr’s numbers are just plain goofy. He’s got a good arm and I think he’ll be a solid pitcher in the big leagues, but don’t expect him to hold opponents to a sub-500 OPS again anytime soon.

Minor Changes to Site

First off, if the site seems a little different today, that’s because it is. In preparation of bigger things to come, I’ve made some changes, most of them fairly minor. But, for those who like to know what’s going on, here is a brief summary:

  • BaseballJunkie.net and Boyd’s World added to the Hot Links
  • masthead text ("one fan’s take on the grand ol’ game of baseball") fixed; been driving me nuts
  • XHTML validator button removed; I’m still trying to code these pages as cleanly as possible so that they’ll load quickly into your browsers but at this point, being 100% standards compliant is not a priority
  • copyright information updated
  • Yahoo Groups and Google Search areas cleaned up a bit
  • font sizes in Navigate and Hot Links increased for better viewability
  • main text area background color changed to a "softer" teal; hopefully this provides greater contrast and improves readability

Anyway, apologies to those among you who are bored by this kind of stuff. I like to know what’s going on at sites I visit, and I feel it’s only right to let you know, too. If you have any thoughts on any of the changes made, or on any others that you’d like to see made, please let me know. Without you, this site is nothing.

Okay, with all that admistrivia out of the way, on to other things. Really all I have today is this nugget from yesterday’s Baseball America chat session with Allan Simpson. Therein, he identified local southpaws Royce Ring (SDSU) and Ricky Barrett (USD) as potential first-rounders in the June draft. Rancho Bernardo High’s Jake Blalock, younger brother of Rangers’ überprospect Hank Blalock, was mentioned as a possible darkhorse candidate. I haven’t seen any of these guys play yet but I’ll definitely let you know when I do.

That’s about all for now. Big announcement about the site forthcoming in the next few weeks. Stay tuned…

Sean Burroughs, Bad Umpiring, and Kevin Towers’ Contract Extension

A few items of interest today.

ProtospectWatch.com Ranks Padres Prospects

Almost won my first game of All-Star Baseball 2003 the other day. Played the Twins at the Q. Adam Eaton and Brad Radke locked up in a pitchers’ duel. Eaton tires after six scoreless, gives way to Tom Davey. One out in the top of the seventh, Davey gives up a mammoth homer to Corey Koskie. Fastball up and in, hammered down the right field line. Turned out to be the only run of the ballgame. I’m starting to figure out fielding but I still have no clue on the basepaths.

Did you notice Justin Germano’s GB/FB ratio last year? I know he doesn’t throw hard, and his numbers weren’t all that great at Ft. Wayne, but for some reason I’ve got a feeling about this one. Chris Reed over at ProtospectWatch.com compares him to Brian Lawrence, and that might not be far from the truth. Speaking of Chris, he’s doing some interesting stuff over there. He’s got his Top 301 prospects for 2002. Several Padres show up here:

  • 3. Sean Burroughs, 3B
  • 10. Jake Peavy, RHP
  • 24. Dennis Tankersley, RHP
  • 92. Ben Johnson, OF
  • 119. Ramon Vazquez, SS
  • 122. Oliver Perez, LHP
  • 129. Eric Cyr, LHP
  • 155. Mark Phillips, LHP
  • 174. Bernabel Castro, 2B
  • 180. Xavier Nady, 1B
  • 206. Jake Gautreau, 2B
  • 226. Justin Germano, RHP
  • 236. Ben Howard, RHP

Interesting list. Chris is one of the few who agrees with my preference of Peavy over Tankersley, although again, when comparing those two, it’s splitting hairs. Perez, Cyr, and Castro seem a bit high on this list; Phillips, Nady, and Gautreau a shade low. But it’s a good list, and Chris obviously puts a great deal of thought into his work. You can view all 301 prospects if you’re so inclined.

Chris also has some good stuff over in the Padres team report. The comparisons are interesting: Peavy to David Cone, Tankersley to Matt Morris, Johnson to Brian Jordan, Perez to Andy Pettitte, Cyr to Billy Wagner, Phillips to Mark Langston (I even get a mention for coming up with this one; thanks, Chris!), Vazquez to David Eckstein, Nady to Marcus Giles, and Germano to Lawrence. He doesn’t compare Howard to anyone but I’ll throw out a name: Robb Nen.

Finally, Mark Jerkatis is working on something he calls his "peak projections." Rather than try to explain it myself, I’ll just recommend you head on over and read about it yourself. He’s definitely whetted my appetite.

And speaking of folks doing some cool work, Rany Jazayerli at Baseball Prospectus is exploring something he calls "improvement ratio." Again, I take the lazy way out and invite you to read about it yourself. Interesting stuff. I’m not sure what, if any, conclusions can be drawn from this, but I like the way he’s thinking here.

Okay, I could go on for hours; I’ve got plenty more to say but real-life beckons and you’ve probably had enough of me by now anyway…