Quick reminder: The Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual is now shipping. Go buy a copy or five… In case you missed it, we’re doing community projections again this year. Read the introduction to learn more about the comatosely accurate IVIEs, available only here at Ducksnorts.
| PA | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Antonelli | 250 | .219 | .312 | .321 |
| Chris Burke | 250 | .220 | .311 | .331 |
| Everth Cabrera | 150 | .215 | .274 | .308 |
| David Eckstein | 450 | .274 | .332 | .340 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 675 | .288 | .357 | .504 |
| Edgar Gonzalez | 300 | .264 | .320 | .372 |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | 650 | .282 | .330 | .468 |
| Luis Rodriguez | 475 | .253 | .304 | .327 |
Yeah, I realize those numbers for Antonelli are almost exactly what he did at Triple-A last year. I think ’08 was a fluke and he’ll rebound.
Burke has drawn exactly 27 walks in each of the past three seasons. It’s like Adam Dunn’s homers, only who cares?
I hesitate to offer a guess for Cabrera because he hasn’t played above Low-A ball, but what the heck. I’m not sure how the Padres plan to hide that guy on the big-league roster all year.
The plate appearances on Eckstein might be low. I’m assuming he won’t be the starter by season’s end.
Adrian will do what he always does, which is be a stud while nobody is paying attention.
Edgar will slip from his rookie campaign. After disappearing toward the end of July ’08, he’ll need to make some serious adjustments if he’s to have a career.
Six players drew 25 walks or fewer in 2008 while amassing 600 or more plate appearances: Carlos Gomez, Jose Guillen, Cristian Guzman, Miguel Tejada, Freddy Sanchez, and Kouz. Despite this fact, I still think the guy can hit.
I can’t believe the Padres are going to run Rodriguez out there every day. On the bright side, he should be better than Khalil Greene was in 2008; then again, the same could be said of just about anyone with a pulse.
Those are my guesses; let’s see yours. Use the format PA, BA/OBP/SLG. We’ll cover the outfielders on Friday and the pitchers next week.
Antonelli 150 .193 .292 .301
Burke 250 .255 .314 .377
Cabrera 0
Eckstein 550 .292 .350 .344
A. Gonzalez 650 .268 .350 .523
E. Gonzalez 300 .251 .304 .371
Kouzmanoff 650 .255 .301 .450
L. Rodriguez450 .273 .316 .343
Guessing Plate appearances for the 2B scrubs was quite the challenge…
Antonelli: 230 .237/.326/.359
Burke: 233 .242/.322/.361
Cabrera 100 .217/.280/.281
Eckstein 455 .272/.338/.348
A. Gonzalez 650 .280/.353/.494
E. Gonzalez 186 .270/.328/.390
Kouzmanoff 586 .275/.325/.463
Rodriguez 357 .262/.322/.346
Matt Antonelli 275 .235 .325 .340
Chris Burke 150 .209 .285 .300
Everth Cabrera 210 .220 .270 .300
David Eckstein 350 .290 .350 .340
Adrian Gonzalez 675 .292 .350 .510
Edgar Gonzalez 300 .275 .300 .350
Kevin Kouzmanoff 400 .270 .300 .490
Luis Rodriguez 475 .240 .295 .300
I think both Kouz and Eckstein will be traded at or before the deadline to make room for Headley to move to third and call up Antonelli to play 2B.
HI Geoff
I’m surprised to see how much Matt has fallen in everyone’s eyes. He had a bad year that was due to a flaw in his swing that he has worked hard during the winter to correct. He has had a great spring training and has proven he can play 2nd base. 219 for someone who had one bad year; again, I’m surprised.
#4@Jack from Boston: Hey Jack, thanks for the note. Believe me, I seriously hope that Matt makes us all look like raving idiots for projecting such low numbers.
Chris Burke: 175, .265/.326/.278
David Eckstein: 550, .262/.340/.346
Adrian Gonzalez: 672, .300/.408/.547
Edgar Gonzalez: 350, .279/.336/.393
Kevin Kouzmanoff: 700, .295/.322/.465
Luis Rodriguez: 320, .293/.333/.358
2B/SS others 175 PA between all
Matt Antonelli 125 .219 .312 .340
Chris Burke 150 .219 .311 .320
Everth Cabrera 74 .174 .275 .275
David Eckstein 500 .266 .340 .340
Adrian Gonzalez 650 .275 .355 .525
Edgar Gonzalez 350 .276 .320 .360
Kevin Kouzmanoff 650 .288 330 .450
Luis Rodriguez 475 .243 .304 .327
With six precincts reporting:
Antonelli: 206, .221/.313/.332
Burke: 201, .235/.312/.328
Cabrera: 107, .207/.275/.291
Eckstein: 476, .276/.342/.343
A. Gonzalez: 662, .284/.362/.517
E. Gonzalez: 298, .269/.318/.373
Kouzmanoff: 606, .278/.318/.464
L. Rodriguez: 425, .261/.312/.334
Incidentally, I saw Cabrera on TV last night. He looked overmatched at the plate, but man, what an arm.
Antonelli 350 PA 240/340/390
Burke 200 PA 230/305/340
Eckstein 450 PA 270/340/350
A-Gon 700 PA 290/375/515
E-Gon 165 PA 255/325/385
Kouzmanoff 575 PA 285/335/475
Rodriguez 150 PA 245/305/325
I think that Cabrera will be offered back to the Rockies or the Padres will trade for him and send him down to the minors. I also still think that Kouzmanoff will be traded for a SS and Headley will be moved to 3B, but BP’s PECOTA loves Kouzmanoff for next season.
Antonelli 200 PA .247/.338/.375
Burke 85 PA .232/.308/.346
Cabrera 160 PA .231/.285/.275
Eckstein 535 PA .265/.338/.342
A Gonzalez 650 PA .281/.358/.506
E Gonzalez 125 PA .268/.321/.351
Kouzmanoff 600 PA .281/.344/.495 (Yeah, I’m going wildly optimistic on this one)
Rodriguez 425 PA .251/.307/.310
Matt Antonelli .210/.250/.225, 50 Ab’s
Chris Burke .240/.298/.345, 100 Ab’s
Everth Cabrera .100/.275/.200, 50 Ab’s
David Eckstein .256/.345/.355, 450 Ab’s
Adrian Gonzalez .310/.420/.550, 650 Ab’s
Edgar Gonzalez .292/.425/.425, 250 Ab’s
Kevin Kouzmanoff .278/.355/.450, 550 Ab’s
Luis Rodriguez .235/.310/.310, 225 Ab’s
My casual observation of KK was that despite going deep in the count, he would rarely walk, often chasing ball four.
So seemed like an odd combination of patience but low BB total. In fact, I went and played with some numbers based on a perception:
that KK works the count pretty well, but it seems to result in SO rather than BB.
Some of this is true, some not. Of the players with 450+ PA (171), he was 131 in pitchers per PA. Not good.
But, not sure if this is luck or the way he is, but if you built a formula on expected strike outs and expected BB based on pitches per PA (idea, the deeper you go, the higher the probability that you will walk or K), KK is the worst of both worlds: he K’s more than you would expect and he walks less than you expect. In fact if you add those two together (K variance + BB variance) he is 4th worst in the league. So, given his pitches seen, he has a high K rate and a low BB rate.
For some reason, this seems like something you can fix. Maybe not, but I hope so.
Matt Antonelli 225 .240 .330 .360
Chris Burke 275 .260 .330 .420
Everth Cabrera 125 .210 .310 .340
David Eckstein 475 .295 .355 .380
Adrian Gonzalez 700 .285 .365 .520
Edgar Gonzalez 250 .275 .325 .400
Kevin Kouzmanoff 650 .285 .320 .475
Luis Rodriguez 450 .280 .320 .350
Antonelli: 200 PA .260 / .330/ .330
Burke: 230 PA .240 / .310 / .360
Eckstein: 500 PA .280 / .350 / .350
Cabrera: 39 PA .176 / .282 / .206
A. Gonzalez: 700 PA .275 / .360 / .500
E. Gonzalez: 350 PA .290 / .380 / .440
Kouzmanoff: 600 PA .270 / .310 / .440
Rodriguez: 250 PA .260 / .300 / .320
Cabrera seems to be over matched at the Major League level as of now. I think he’ll be returned. Denker and Blanks can also be thrown into this mix, but as of now the IF is overpopulated. I think guys will be moved to acquire some help in the pen. I don’t see Luis Rodriguez replicating the production he posted last year.
#11@Ian C.: You have Edgar with a .425 OBP. Is that correct, or a typo?
#12@jay: Interesting stuff there. We shall see.
no you are right my mistake, a .325 obp
Sorry I’m late!
Antonelli: 200, .245/.310/.360
Burke: 180, .240/.320/.340
Cabrera: 150, .209/.287/.299
Eckstein: 380, .270/.340/.340
A. Gonzalez: 600, .284/.365/.515
E. Gonzalez: 180, .250/.315/.360
Kouzmanoff: 600, .283/.335/.485
Rodriguez: 450, .255/.320/.340
With 12 precincts reporting:
Antonelli: 205, .231/.315/.336
Burke: 190, .238/.312/.343
Cabrera: 118, .195/.282/.276
Eckstein: 470, .274/.343/.348
A. Gonzalez: 664, .286/.368/.517
E. Gonzalez: 259, .270/.325/.383
Kouzmanoff: 601, .279/.326/.467
L. Rodriguez: 375, .258/.311/.330
Antonelli: 200, .251/.363/.352
Burke: 120, .215/.300/.330
Cabrera: 200, .227/.295/.331
Eckstein: 400, .270/.340/.373
A. Gonzalez: 600, .294/.369/.500
E. Gonzalez: 250, .259/.320/.385
Kouzmanoff: 550, .270/.338/.484
L. Rodriguez: 405, .281/.332/.384
Matt Antonelli, 400, 0.245, 0.335, 0.355
Chris Burke, 175, 0.210, 0.300, 0.320
Everth Cabrera, 100, 0.210, 0.250, 0.300
David Eckstein, 350, 0.265, 0.330, 0.360
Adrian Gonzalez, 700, 0.280, 0.360, 0.510
Edgar Gonzalez, 200, 0.250, 0.320, 0.360
Kevin Kouzmanoff, 600, 0.270, 0.330, 0.480
Luis Rodriguez, 400, 0.270, 0.320, 0.350
Gonzalez 650 AB, .277 / .375 / .505
Eckstein 350 AB, .280 / .350 / .344 (traded at deadline)
Antonelli 275 AB .270 / .345 / .395 (takes over after Eckstein trade)
Rodriguez 320 AB .265 / .325 / .345
Cabrera 200 AB .222 / .295 / .333 (takes over as full-time SS by mid-August)
Kouzmanoff 550 AB, .285/.325/.488 (I’m calling it, Kouz is gonna have a big season)
*Has anyone else noticed that Khalil Greene is batting .447 with 1 K in 38 AB’s this spring? You gotta be f’ing kidding me.