Random Friday Stupidity
Fri, Aug 15, 2008
by Geoff Young
I was hoping to have some original content today, but it’s been a long week at work and I haven’t been able to formulate my thoughts on various topics as well as I’d have liked. Here are a few things I’m wondering right now:
- Why did Chase Headley suddenly discover plate discipline on June 12 (zero walks in first 88 PA this year; 16 in 110 since then)?
- Why does Jake Peavy pitch about as well in losses as Nate Robertson does in wins, and what would Peavy’s record look like with Robertson’s run support?
- Why do some people think I’m an optimist?
- Were the 2003 Tigers really worse than the 1969 Padres? (Hint: Check out the run differentials; also note that Dmitri Young had a better season than Nate Colbert, and the Pads got exactly zero innings from guys with an ERA+ of 100 or higher.)
- Why did the Padres once forfeit a draft pick (used by the Cubs to select Rafael Palmeiro out of Mississippi State) to sign Tim Stoddard?
- Why is Cheryl Ladd doing commercials for heartburn medicine? That poster is so coming down now.
- Where is my coffee?
Happy Friday, folks. I hope you survived…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
August 15, 2008 at 8:34 am
I understand today is the last day the Padres have to sign their draft picks. First, is that correct? Second, if it is, is there a website or list of the Padres draftees and their status (signed/unsigned)?
August 15, 2008 at 8:50 am
#1@Farquaad:
1. That’s right, except in a very few cases. College seniors can sign up until the next draft, basically. I don’t believe we have any seniors remaining.
2. The basic Draft Database at Baseball America isn’t limited to subscribers and shows signed players in bold. I’m not sure if they’ll update that one as quickly as the subscriber-only list. Here’s a modified link, because the Ducksnorts filter always eats mine:
www DOT baseballamerica DOT com SLASH draftdb SLASH 2008xteam.php?team=1016
The two players I’m most surprised we haven’t come to terms with are Kyle Thebeau, a reliever out of Texas A&M, and Nick Conaway, the collegian who didn’t play at all last year. Conaway’s situation may be unusual; not sure what happens if he’s not in school, if we retain his rights until next June or if he’s a free agent tomorrow.
August 15, 2008 at 9:07 am
#1@Farquaad: here is the list:
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....sp?c_id=sd
but it does not show Darnell being signed so im not sure how up to date it is.
August 15, 2008 at 9:11 am
Reineke is coming up to start for CY. I like that…at least it’s not Tomko or Estes. We already know what they can do, lets see with this character has instead.
For those wondering about how Falkenborg added some extra heat:
– Brian Falkenborg, claimed off waivers from the Dodgers on Wednesday, said a fitness trainer added speed to his fastball by emphasizing small-muscle development. Previously, the right-hander worked far more on big muscles. “It’s really helped,” said Falkenborg, whose fastball averaged 94 mph in some outings. The next step, he said, is to become more accurate.
August 15, 2008 at 9:14 am
#3@Steve C: BA’s database does show him signed, and the advanced database shows he got 740K. So the Padres have moved off their formerly rigid adherence to slot.
Next year will be a big test of how far they’ve moved. So far only 3 of the top 10 picks have signed, and only 2 signed for slot or below. Tim Beckham got 50% more than slot.
August 15, 2008 at 9:19 am
#4@Masticore317: 94 seems more realistic than the 97 some reports claimed.
Petco at night. Reineke couldn’t ask for a better park to make his major league debut. Too bad it couldn’t be against the Nationals or the Giants.
August 15, 2008 at 9:25 am
#2@Tom Waits: Try it again, Tom … I haven’t had a link eaten in a long time!
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....?team=1016
It’s my understanding the Padres are done signing guys …
August 15, 2008 at 9:34 am
#7@LynchMob: We all know you’re far more likable than me, by people and computerized filters alike.
I wonder what those college relievers were looking for. Speaking of relievers, Josh Fields hasn’t signed with Seattle yet. That seems like strange strategy on the kid’s part. He can’t go back to school and he was a reliever, albeit a closer. They reportedly offered him slot money, about 1.5 million. Does anybody see him getting a bigger payday.
August 15, 2008 at 9:34 am
#4@Masticore317: Here’s the UT article with the comment about Falkenborg’s increase in velocity …
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....?team=1016
… “averaging 94″ might be the same as “touching 97″ …
Also has this note about my favorite prospect …
One of the Padres’ better hitting prospects, Lake Elsinore corner outfielder Kellen Kulbacki, is headed to the DL because of a shoulder injury.
… sigh.
Also, I watched the Portland Beaver game on TV last night … and Josh Geer does not look like an MLB pitcher … he’s got a bit of a funky hitch in his delivery that just says to my totally untrained eye “soft-tosser” …
August 15, 2008 at 9:54 am
#4@Masticore317: For some reason, this explination brought back memories of Jason Giambi a few years back showing up to camp significantly smaller than he was the previous season (some 30 or 40lbs if I remember right)…he said something to the effect of:
No, I did not lose weight, I simply “repositioned” some muscles.
The best part is he said that with a straight face.
**Please note, I am not necessarily suggesting the use of steroids by the newest member of the Padres, just relating a memory.*
August 15, 2008 at 9:57 am
#8@Tom Waits: aw, shucks … I don’t know that I’d agree with *far* more likeable
C’mon … try it … try to post a comment with that BA link … it’s gotta work … try it!
Maybe the filter knows that TW is a pseudonym? (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/pseudonym)
August 15, 2008 at 10:06 am
Sorry about that geoff, i took your coffee by mistake.
August 15, 2008 at 10:12 am
#9@LynchMob: That’s what Geer’s numbers say, too. I hope we didn’t pass on trading him after last year. Texas League Pitcher of the Year has some cachet. A generic campaign in AAA has none.
August 15, 2008 at 10:13 am
#5@Tom Waits: We are so completely #$%@$% next year if they want to adhere to slot at all. In related news, I really hope the Pirates sign Alvarez to a huge over slot deal, negotiated by the guy formerly in charge of the slotting system.
OT - I watched the Cuba-U.S. Olympic baseball game last night, and it was a really good game. Trevor Cahill pitched for the U.S. and was shaky in the first, missing his spots badly, possibly due to nerves. After allowing two runs there, he settled down nicely and pitched four more shutout innings. He’s got a nice sinker. It was a great game through the tenth inning, which ended with the score tied 3-3. And then the stupid Olympic tiebreaker rules, where you start innings after the tenth with runners on first and second, ruined the game and Cuba won 5-4 in the eleventh.
August 15, 2008 at 10:28 am
#14@Ben B.:
Wait, wait… Are you serious? Olympic baseball rules put runners on 1st and 2nd after 10 innings? You have got to be kidding me. Really? That is litterally the worst rule I have ever heard.
August 15, 2008 at 10:31 am
#10@Coronado Mike: The pussyfooting in regards to the sterious allegations were totallyl hilarious.
August 15, 2008 at 10:34 am
#15@KRS1: If a game should be tied after 10 innings each infielder must play gloveless and each outfielder must have a member of the local media strapped to their leg (3 legged race style). Also, pitchers must pitch with an eyepatch on, and catchers have to be blindfolded.
August 15, 2008 at 10:35 am
#16@Masticore317: Wow…I can’t spell, and I haven’t even had a drink yet today.
August 15, 2008 at 10:42 am
#15, Not only that but you get to start the inning with whatever spot in the batting order you want.
August 15, 2008 at 11:06 am
#19@PF4L: I say just go to penalty kicks and be done with it!
August 15, 2008 at 11:10 am
#18@Masticore317: Go ahead and have that first drink, and wash it down with a couple dozen more.
August 15, 2008 at 11:11 am
An interesting preview of tonight’s game from Baseball Prospectus …
Two old teammates meet on the mound tonight in San Diego. Twenty-two years ago, Moyer and Maddux both made their major league debuts as members of the Chicago Cubs. Three years Maddux’s elder, Moyer was called up to start on June 16, picking up a win over the Phillies. Maddux was a September call-up whose first appearance came out of the bullpen, but five days later he made his first start and pitched Chicago to a complete-game victory over the Reds. Moyer and Maddux were both members of the Cubs rotation in 1987 and 1988. Each put up an ERA over 5.00 in ‘87, his first full season, while ‘88 saw a dramatic improvement for both pitchers: the pair were the two best starters on the team that year, as Maddux won 18, threw 249 innings, and posted a 3.18 ERA en route to making the All-Star team, while Moyer put up a 3.48 ERA in 202 innings, but was pinned with a 9-15 record by a lack of run support. The Cubs decided to break up their young tandem, trading Moyer in December, along with Rafael Palmeiro and Drew Hall, to the Rangers for Mitch Williams, Paul Kilgus, Steve Wilson, Curtis Wilkerson, and two minor leaguers—a deal that would turn out to be one of the worst in franchise history. Williams had one strong season out of the Cubs bullpen and one lackluster one before being dealt again for Chuck McElroy, but none of the other players Chicago received had an impact for the Cubs. Both Moyer and Palmeiro, of course, went on to have outstanding (and remarkably long) careers, in Palmeiro’s case one that is arguably Hall of Fame-caliber.
After being traded, Moyer spent the next 17 full seasons in the American League before coming to Philadelphia in a late-August 2005 waiver deal, and consequently had very little opportunity to face his former teammate. In fact, the first time that the two pitched against each other was last August 24 in Philadelphia. In that game, the Padres scored eight runs off of Moyer in 4 2/3 innings and won 14-3 behind Maddux, who pitched seven strong. When they meet for the second time tonight, the two pitchers will bring a combined 593 victories and 8,655 innings to the hill.
ps. C’mon, TW, try to post the link!!!
August 15, 2008 at 11:39 am
Those are pretty impressive totals in W’s and IP for the Maddux-Moyer combo.
My .02, the only thing arguable about Palmeiro’s career being Hall-worthy is whether you are willing to vote for someone who used PED’s or not; if you are willing to vote for someone who used, he’s a no doubt, first ballot guy.
Take your pick of counting stats: over 500 HR’s, over 3,000 hits, over 1,600 runs, over 1,800 RBI, over 500 2B. Take a look sometime at guys who have over 500 HR and 2B for their careers. It’s a Who’s Who of HOF players. His ratios aren’t bad either. 288/371/515 raw and 132 OPS+.
August 15, 2008 at 11:43 am
Talking about the draft, it looks like the Nationals won’t sign their first round pick, Missouri pitcher Aaron Crow. They are supposedly only offering slot while Crow wants a large major league deal (strange that the Nationals would only offer slot as they spent a ton in last year’s draft, the most overall if I remember right). That’s good news for the Padres as if they don’t sign Crow, I can’t see them taking Strasburg next season (or maybe that’s just wishful thinking).
August 15, 2008 at 12:09 pm
#12@Loren: No worries, I found more.
August 15, 2008 at 12:16 pm
#25@GY: I think that cup’s mine actually
So more Padre baseball against a contender tonight that we got smoked by at home last year. This doesn’t bode well
August 15, 2008 at 12:21 pm
I just read Jon Heyman’s SI.com article about the Padres cutting payroll for next season. Does anyone know where this rumor got started? If you add up the salaries of the players that the Padres don’t have signed for next season (mainly Maddux, Trevor, Iguchi, Barrett, Bard, Prior, plus a few others under $1m) that gets the payroll down to $40m. But how likely is that the Padres sign no one to fill all those players? Plus players like Bard, Bell, Kouz and Hairston are probably all arbitration eligible so their salaries are going up (if they are kept).
Of course, this could be just more Jon Heyman idiocy as also in his column he talks about Pat Burrell and the number of big hits he’s gotten this season “most of them at home.” I guess going to Baseball Reference and seeing that Burrell’s OPS is 311 points higher on the road is too much work for Heyman.
August 15, 2008 at 12:29 pm
#27@Schlom:
I just thought of a naughty joke involving Mr. JH. What is it about these rumormongers that rubs the wrong way? I know. Rosenthal and Heyman aren’t content with just dishing out scoops — they gotta stir it up by throwing in their own 2 cents. Sometimes it seems to simply serve their buddies’ agendas. (See Rosenthal’s Dodger young/old tension redux piece a few weeks back.)
August 15, 2008 at 1:21 pm
#21@Lance Richardson: I’ve got a softball game tonight…so the drinking will be after that!
August 15, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Matusz (BAL) and Melville (KC) have signed. Matusz got a big-league deal.
August 15, 2008 at 1:36 pm
#29@Masticore317: I thought the drinking started during the game?
August 15, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Here is a spark of good news!
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....notes.html
Padres are discussing a multi-year deal with Bell!
August 15, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Scott Miller wrote an article that paints a preety dark picture for the padres future but one interesting thing he says in it is that Trevor definitley wants to play next season…If this is true how would everyone feel about the pads offering him anotehr contract for 09?
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/10932373/2
August 15, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Headley has 11 BB in his last 22 games(85AB) 2 of the games he had 5 BB and the other 20 6 BB. The 2 games =SP Hernandez 11 runs in the 1st 3 innings and SP Van Benscote 7 runs in 1st 2 innings. Besides 3 BB in the Col. game he drew a HP.
August 15, 2008 at 2:01 pm
#33@Steve C: It’s strange because other then the fact that the Moores’ are getting a divorce, there are no indications that the Padres are cutting payroll.
As far as the Giles thing goes, I read somewhere that if Giles was traded, his option would have automatically been picked up. However, on this http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.c.....adres.html doesn’t mention it nor have I seen it written anywhere else (I can’t remember where I read that, might have been SI.com). If a condition that Giles would accept a trade provided the Red Sox didn’t pick up his option, that would certainly mean that the Padres would get very little in return. I’m not sure trading Giles for a month and a half of the 2008 and then possibly resigning him would really be considered a salary dump.
I also don’t see there is any way that the Padres don’t pick up Giles’ option. Since he has a $3m buyout, that means effectively the Padres would only be paying him $6m next season. Although I guess if they don’t pick up Giles that’s a pretty clear sign that they are intending to significantly cut payroll and don’t intend to compete next season. If they do that, I can’t imagine that Towers would stick around though.
August 15, 2008 at 2:20 pm
#31@Steve C: Yeah…the rules of our league have changed over the past 10 years or so. Used to be you were able to drink during the games. Now, if they even see you drinking before a game you’re not allowed on the field, much less during a game.
There were a few incidents involving mutants acting strangely that kinda ruined it for everyone.
Afterwards is fine though!
#33@Steve C: I don’t mind that, to be honest.
August 15, 2008 at 3:32 pm
#33@Steve C: Considering all the bad relievers the Padres threw out there, Hoffman is still above average or even better.
Only Bell and Adams have been better out of the bullpen.
Hoffman made $5 mil in 2006, $6.5 mil in 2007 and $7.5 mil this season. If they could sign him for $6 mil, that might be good.
Is that a little much? Not sure. But $1-2 mil of that is so he won’t close out his career with another team, in my view.
August 15, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Hey did you guys know that the Moores divorce has sped up global warming(yes everyone from the old confederacy, it exists)?
Seriously though why would the divorce have any effect on the team?
-Both sides want to pass the team on to their daughter.
-They spent a club record outlay on international signings, after the divorce was announced.
-They are actually fighting over who gets to use the owners box.
Those 3 facts all sound like it is going to be business as usual at Petco this off season. What would help though at this point is a statement from the Moores family that payroll won’t be going down.
August 15, 2008 at 3:45 pm
#33@Steve C: Even if Trevor isn’t what he used to be, it would be tough to go into ‘09 with a new closer (Bell), and two other huge holes to fill in the 7th and 8th innings, and just one guy that is capable at this moment (Mike Adams) of filling either of those spots. I say we give Hoffy another season, which would give us Adams, Bell, and 1 or 2 other acquisitions to fill the very important set-up roles. Hoffman is in terrific shape and I figure he’s the kind of guy that will train even harder in the offseason so he can help the Padres bounce back from this rough season. He’s got my vote for the closer’s job in ‘09.
August 15, 2008 at 3:51 pm
#38@Mark Ase:
“Seriously though why would the divorce have any effect on the team?”
Divorce can be a very bitter thing, and bitter people will do just about anything. What better way is there to hurt a soon to be ex husband, than to destroy his baseball team?
August 15, 2008 at 3:55 pm
#35@Schlom: #38@Mark Ase: From a business standpoint, I think a statement to the fans is a great idea, considering many of us who pay to see this team are going to be influenced by all of the speculation going on in the paper and talk shows. But with all of the legal stuff going on, I’m pretty sure there is only so much the lawyers want them to say to the public. In their case, it’s probably better to not say anything at all until all of their legal stuff is behind them. The fact that they spent all of that money on the international signings is definitely a good sign though. I don’t buy into all of the payroll cutting speculation. I don’t think they’re increasing the payroll but I also don’t see a dramatic decrease. Moores is a business man. I’m guessing he knows what a huge cut in payroll would do to the ticket sales. At least I hope he knows that.
August 15, 2008 at 3:55 pm
#37@Kevin: Merdith’s been better, too. Hoffman’s currently rocking the 90 ERA+.
It’s not the worst thing in the world to use your not-best reliever as a closer; by definition he’s going to pitch in games you already have a good chance of winning. Even if they cut payroll next year they might want to bring him back for the fans.
Hoffy’s K numbers are very good, it’s the HR that have killed him. 7 of the 8 HR have come at Petco, and that’s not so good since he’s pitched 2/3 of his innings at home.
August 15, 2008 at 4:21 pm
re 40: Ummmm, perhaps read the rest of my post?
Becky Moores likes the Padres as much as John does.
Becky Moores has said publically since the divorce that her biggest concern is that the team is passed on to her daughter.
Maybe the divorce is so tainted that she’s willing to destroy the team that her husband bought, she loves and her daughter wants to run…..but to be honest anyone who has had any type of interaction with the family finds that hard to believe.
August 15, 2008 at 4:34 pm
#43@Mark Ase: The quotes from Beckey regarding the good of the team came well before the Private box ugliness.
I don’t put anything past bitter people and turning the private box into a court issue, could be a the beginning of a battle that will leave the franchise in tatters.
August 15, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Here’s how a blog at BA described the Darnell signing …
The Padres locked up their second-rounder, South Carolina third baseman James Darnell, for a $740,000 bonus. He has above-average power and was considered a better all-around athlete than fellow Gamecocks infielders Reese Havens and Justin Smoak, both of whom were first-round picks.
… hey, I like the sound of that.
August 15, 2008 at 5:47 pm
From BA’s Prospect Hot Sheet Q&A today …
Q: PT from NH asks:
Will Venable: Does he get a chance to compete for a job in SD next spring? He’s hit for a lot more power this year.
A: Matt Eddy: Indeed. Venable is one of those players who goes a bit under the radar because 1) he’s 25, and 2) he’s good at many aspects of the game, but overwhelming in none. He’ll definitely get a look in the big leagues next year, though with lefty-hitters Brian Giles, Jody Gerut and Chase Headley (switch, stronger from left) already in the outfield, the Padres may need to be creative to work Venable into the mix.
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....66703.html
August 15, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Better athlete is nice and all Darnell hit .306/..395/.580 while Havens hit .359/.486/.645 and Smoak hit .383/.505/.757.
I’d be happy with either of the worse athletes lol
I did notice that Havens plays SS-harder defensive position, better hitter-yeah
August 15, 2008 at 5:58 pm
“James took batting practice here at Petco today (hit a homer on his first swing) and will be reporting to Eugene. ”
From DePodesta’s current blog.
August 15, 2008 at 7:46 pm
#42@Tom Waits: I was going by win shares, but either way, I agree with your analysis.
August 15, 2008 at 7:47 pm
#39@JMAR: He’s got my vote, too.
August 17, 2008 at 10:07 pm
#47@Mark Ase: Check out how Darnell, Smoak and Havens did in 2007 …