Sat, Aug 2, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres vs Giants
7:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD, DIRECTV 696
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 188
MLB, B-R
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
Filed under In-Game Discussion.
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August 2, 2008 at 10:06 am
We were discussing the decline of Khalil Greene the other day. Corey Snyder looks a lot like Greene as a hitter.
http://www.baseball-reference......co02.shtml
August 2, 2008 at 10:43 am
To Sean Callahan, you can’t challenge me if I can’t log into the blog. I tried and tried last night and finally gave up.
Very disappointing game last night and dissapointing season. But, I’m still loyal.
August 2, 2008 at 11:02 am
#2@Turbine Dude:
Yes, disappointing it has been. My wife wants to go to the game tonight just so we can get some free t-shirts. I’ll have to think about it…..
August 2, 2008 at 11:15 am
#3@Oside Jon: Considering where you live, it will cost twice the price of the t-shirts for the gas alone! I’ll bet your son is heart broken now that KK is out for the rest of the season.
August 2, 2008 at 11:15 am
#4@Turbine Dude: Sorry KG.
August 2, 2008 at 11:29 am
U-T is reporting the front office may try to recoup some of Greene’s salary… I can only assume this is because he hurt himself, and therefore he is responsible.
Doesn’t that sound a like a low-class move by the organization?
It’s like they are saying… “You hurt yourself, so we get our money back… ha!”
Do they really need that $800,00 that badly that they’d make a move that makes them look like a penny-pinching bunch of Ebonezer Scrooge’s?
August 2, 2008 at 11:34 am
#6@Richard D.: PR-wise, not a good move. From the viewpoint of an employer, I can definately see their point.
August 2, 2008 at 11:37 am
I couldn’t log onto the site last night either. “Swing Vote” was good.
August 2, 2008 at 11:37 am
To JP:
That free agent list was interesting. I didn’t remember quite a few of those.
August 2, 2008 at 11:53 am
#7@Turbine Dude: Yeah but if Greenie was not in a slump they would not be asking for any money, they are taking a big risk by doing this, if greenie’s 09 season is like his 07 there will be no way they will be ab le to re-sign him…
August 2, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Sounds like Iguchi will return as the starting 2B…kind of a bummer I was hoping they would stick with E-gon as the everyday 2B to see if he can keep hitting for the next 2 months…
http://www3.signonsandiego.com.....al/?padres
August 2, 2008 at 1:48 pm
#10@Steve C: Do you really want to re-sign him? He might be the single most maddening player on the team… in terms of so much talent, and so much promise but never really has become a top flight player..
Also, need I remind you, this is the 4th time in five years he will miss a chunk of the season due to injury.
August 2, 2008 at 2:52 pm
#2@Turbine Dude: I wondered why it was so quiet.
Maybe accessing the site from New Zealand helps after all, despite the pathetic broadband…
August 2, 2008 at 2:58 pm
#13@Sean Callahan: You were having conversations with yourself
#10@Steve C: Greenies’ problems exceed the definition of a “slump”
August 2, 2008 at 3:05 pm
#14@charlie don’t surf: Yes. Once I figured out no one else was posting, I decided to emulate TD, who quite often has to have conversations with himself until he goads someone into joining him…
He’s obviously better company then me.
August 2, 2008 at 3:14 pm
#15@Sean Callahan: I was able to access the site, but I could not post. Everything would just lock up. I figured it was because I was new.
August 2, 2008 at 3:18 pm
#12@Richard D.: If he has a year like he did in 07 and is willing to sign for the same amount that he did this year then yes…there is no one down on the farm that looks like they will be ready by 2010 and I don’t see the pads paying for a more productive SS (both with the bat and glove) to come in via FA and they don’t have the chip[s to trade for one…
August 2, 2008 at 3:24 pm
#11@Steve C: I imagine Iguchi plays for now to prove he’s healthy and then we deal him.
August 2, 2008 at 3:52 pm
#11@Steve C: I don’t like that call, either.
August 2, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Can’t Edgar play SS for the rest of the season? It’s not like he’s a worse overall player then Luis Gonzalez because whatever he gives up with the glove he is going to make up with his bat. Plus Rodriguez isn’t really a SS either. I’d certainly give it a shot — although I’m sure some of the pitchers wouldn’t be too happy with that.
#1@charlie chan: That is a good comp. Snyder came out of college as a SS, the Indians tried him there but he wasn’t that good. I remember that he had a cannon for an arm so he was a great right fielder. He was the 4th overall pick in the 1984 draft, behind Shawn Abner, Bill Swift and Drew Hall (Mark McGwire was picked 10th).
August 2, 2008 at 6:00 pm
#20@Schlom: I thought so too. Baerga is a good match because of his decline at a young age, but Snyder with his high strikeouts and low OBP is really a better comparison. I was going by the name Charlie Chan, but I changed it because Gravatar would not accept it. Now it keeps saying that I need to use lower case letters and numbers. I keep doing that, but it doesnt work.
Any suggestions?
August 2, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Baseball Prospectus has an article up on their minor league translations: http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=7893
Not sure if it’s still free anymore.
At the end, they have a list of the most promising players in Double A and Triple A by Peak Translation (definition: Peak translation projects a player’s translated performance to an expected peak level, using age adjustments compared to each level at which they’ve played, and adjustments based on the power component in their hitting performance and their strikeout rate). Their translations apply league difficulty and ballpark factors to each players stats.
The top three are Dexter Fowler (CF/AA/Rockies), Mat Gamel (3B?/AA/MIL) and Kyle Blanks (1B/AA/SD). That’s a real good sign for the future. Right now they have Blanks’ projected stats as 311/397/545 with 21 HR and a 52/61 BB/SO ratio.
August 2, 2008 at 6:49 pm
#15@Sean Callahan: Hey, I resemble that remark. My wife keeps telling me to quit talking to myself.
August 2, 2008 at 6:54 pm
#21@charlie don’t surf: I like your current user name. One of my favorite movies. As far as the avatar thing goes, you might want to e-mail Geoff and see if he has any ideas.
August 2, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Rodriguez at SS, Iguchi at 2B and Edgar Gonzalez on the bench. I guess the hope is that Iguchi catches fire and they are able to trade him for anything in the next few weeks. How long do you give him? Between 10-15 games or longer/shorter?
August 2, 2008 at 6:58 pm
#10@Steve C: I think KT will deal him after this season anyways.
August 2, 2008 at 6:59 pm
#25@Schlom: Don’t know. But I would rather have Egon at second.
August 2, 2008 at 7:02 pm
OT: Tony G needs to visit Jenny Craig. He’s just ballooned.
August 2, 2008 at 7:13 pm
#23@Turbine Dude: I was doing it in your honor…
Peavy really needs to learn to keep his pitch count down. Why he had to go 3-2 on Ochoa is beyond me. Instead of making him swing, he kept trying to nibble, even after getting ahead 0-2.
August 2, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Either game day’s not very accurate or Randy Marsh is not a very good home plate umpire…
I don’t see how Peavy’s called strike against Ochoa was a strike, nor how the first and second pitches to Adrian weren’t strikes.
Not that I’m complaining, as we need all the help we can get.
Kouz will hit a three-run bomb, since he GIDP last night…
August 2, 2008 at 7:25 pm
As bad as Hoffman has been this season (6 losses, 3 blown saves in 25 save opportunities), Billy Wagner blew his 7th today against the Astros (in 34 chances). His overall numbers are really good but he’s converted less then 80% of his save chances.
August 2, 2008 at 7:26 pm
#9@Kevin: Thanks. I tried to log on as well last night but to no avail.
August 2, 2008 at 7:27 pm
#29@Sean Callahan: Dude, I can’t possibly agree more.. Peavy’s constantly high pitch-counts are maddening and often it’s because of the stupid 3-2 counts in the 1st and 2nd innings.
August 2, 2008 at 7:31 pm
#31@Schlom: Trevor has given up runs in 11 of his 36 appearances. That is a horrendous number. Wagner has good numbers overall, but is really just as shaky. He is the classic compiler.
August 2, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Nice mention by Matty of a Meat Loaf song.
August 2, 2008 at 7:45 pm
I just noticed that Barry Zitto looks a lot like our very own GY.
August 2, 2008 at 7:52 pm
#24@Turbine Dude: My name is Charles obviously. Charlie Dont Surf works on several levels. There is the Apocalypse Now movie reference. There is the Clash song that addresses cultural and corporate imperialism. There is Oside John with his surfboard avatar and the SD surfing culture. Also, I am blonde haired and blue eyed, but I do not surf.
I lived in San Diego for 7 years but I now live in Connecticut. I got married and had kids, but I didn’t want my children growing up in a cultural wasteland of fast food, malls,and cars. I want them to root for the Padres however. The Yankees and Red Sox dont accurately reflect life. I would like my children to understand how unfair and wrong life can sometimes be.
Twenty years from now, they will thank me…. unless they are in therapy.
August 2, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Petco park factor aside, this has to be one of the more punchless lineups in Padres history.
August 2, 2008 at 7:57 pm
#34@charlie don’t surf: I just looked at the top 10 NL pitchers in saves and what percentage of games they gave up runs:
Hoffman 30.6% (22)
Wilson 30.2% (29)
Torres 25.5% (21)
Gregg 24.5% (24)
Valverde 23.5% (27)
Cordero 21.6% (21)
Wood 20.5% (24)
Wagner 20.0% (27)
Lidge 18.2% (26)
Lyon 17.8% (24)
Kind of surprising that Lyon is best on that list and the NL saves leader is only better then Hoffman. Despite Wagner’s great stats (best ERA, best ratio), he’s not best on this list.
August 2, 2008 at 8:02 pm
#38@JP: You think their lineup is bad, check out the lineup the Braves trotted out there today:
Blanco, Prado, Escobar, Infante (batting cleanup!), Kotchman, Francoeur, Johnson and Sammons. Infante might not be the worst ever hitter to bat in the 4th hole, but he’s probably pretty close (84 career OPS+).
August 2, 2008 at 8:08 pm
#40@Schlom: Atlanta will barely support a good team, let alone a bad one. Can’t wait to see those attendance figures in September. Fulton County Stadium was empty in the late 80’s and early 90’s, I predict Turner Field will be empty as well.
Can you believe that the Padres have 25 stolen bases as a team. Wow !!!!! They have no speed at all.
August 2, 2008 at 8:11 pm
#37@charlie don’t surf: I wasn’ trying to read anything into that. I’m a veteran and liked the Apocolypse Now reference. ‘Never leave the boat! Never leave the boat! F*ck the mangos!’
August 2, 2008 at 8:13 pm
#41@JP: Though the one factor that could make me dead wrong is that Atlanta is so full of transplants (not to mention incredible growth) now that they get decent crowds with 1/2 the people filling the stands rooting on the other ballclub.
August 2, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Five innings in and not one video highlight-worthy play yet…
August 2, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Rubber duel tonight. Not very exciting.
August 2, 2008 at 8:14 pm
Is Giles the only baserunner to make it to second tonight thus far?
August 2, 2008 at 8:15 pm
#44@Sean Callahan: If you are in New Zealand, what time is it there? 13:15?
August 2, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Is anybody surprised that Barry Zito is shutting down the Padres tonight? Can you imagine how happy an opposing pitcher must be when he see he gets a start in Petco? It has to be one of the greatest feelings in the world for a pitcher.
August 2, 2008 at 8:18 pm
#41@JP: It should have been empty in the late 80s and early 90s. Terrible team, terrible stadium.
August 2, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Hoffy not having a bad year really. Though he has certainly been scuffed up when appearing in non save situations, anyone that proclaims that the guy is “done” or is embarrasing himself is wrong. Hoffman still has major league stuff. Here’s the key, does he want to stick around and be like a John Franco 2000-2003 and set up and save occasionally with effectiveness or does he want to go out on top.
August 2, 2008 at 8:20 pm
#49@Kevin: yeah, I simply cannot leave that crappy stadium out of my analysis….or Andres Thomas.
August 2, 2008 at 8:26 pm
#50@JP: I am one of the Hoffman faithful. However dot com, I think he should hang up the cleats after this season. And I also believe that he deserves a statue out there next to Tony’s. I will happily buy a brick to support that.
August 2, 2008 at 8:31 pm
#39@Schlom: Thats why saves is a joke.
August 2, 2008 at 8:32 pm
#51@JP: I’m a huge Hoffman guy, but he is definitely having a bad season.
August 2, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Has anything changed? No. Bases loaded and no runs scored. If I were a religious person, I would ask for penance for all of my foul language. Scince I’m not, I’ll just say that I am f*cking discusted so far.
August 2, 2008 at 8:34 pm
Sorry for all the spelling errors. Typing too fast and pissed off.
August 2, 2008 at 8:35 pm
#42@Turbine Dude: Thats classic!
August 2, 2008 at 8:40 pm
OT: Can someone tell me what the ‘RAK’ meant on the ‘84 uniforms?
August 2, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Ray Kroc
August 2, 2008 at 8:41 pm
#58@Turbine Dude: I’ve only been in SD since ‘88.
August 2, 2008 at 8:42 pm
#59@Zagz: Thank you.
August 2, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Must be a blow to Jake’s ego to realize he’s being outpitched by Barry Zito.
August 2, 2008 at 8:44 pm
#58@Turbine Dude: The owner died that year.
August 2, 2008 at 8:45 pm
#47@Turbine Dude: It’s 3:45PM on Sunday now - we’re five hours behind the next day (or 19 hours ahead, if you don’t want to carry the day…
And finally the video highlight. Who says speed doesn’t help win games?
August 2, 2008 at 8:45 pm
#63@Kevin: Never saw his team win a pennant.
August 2, 2008 at 8:48 pm
#63@Kevin: I didn’t put two and two together. My bad.
I still can’t believe how much Barry Zito looks like Geoff Young…
August 2, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Has anyone crunched the numbers, to see if this team has the chance to have the worst offense in Padres history..
I’ve been watching the team since I was probably 5 years old and I don’t remember one this bad.
August 2, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Hensley gives up a hit to Barry Zito…
August 2, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Has anyone crunched the numbers, to see if this team has the chance to have the worst offense in Padres history..
I’ve been watching the team since I was probably 5 years old and I don’t remember one this bad.
_________
and they are all coming back next season too
August 2, 2008 at 9:04 pm
Up north, Ramirez hit a two-run home run in the first and the Dogs are leading the DBacks 4-1 in the bottom of the 7th…
August 2, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Could this be the low point of the season? This is the first time all season that Zito has started off with 7 innings scoreless (his previous high was 6.2 innings at the Indians on June 25th). Amazingly he’s only had 4 starts this season where he’s given up 2 runs or less (in 21 starts). So of course he is scoreless into the 8th against the Padres.
August 2, 2008 at 9:11 pm
Once again, Adrian has to save the team…
August 2, 2008 at 9:13 pm
#54@Kevin: We could be splitting hairs but I would argue that these numbers are not good but not bad either : Hoffmans’s WHIP is 1.2 and his BAA is .252, not to mention that he has only walked 7 guys all year and has more K’s than innings pitched. We expect more from Hoffman, yes but he can still be effective.
August 2, 2008 at 9:13 pm
#69@wrveres: You can go to this page and go back through the years and figure it out. It’s hard to just compare the Padres runs scored vs. the league average and use that as the final stat because of the run suppression of both Petco and Qualcomm (for example they are scoring runs at 84% of the league average but are at 95 in OPS+).
http://www.baseball-reference......2008.shtml
August 2, 2008 at 9:21 pm
#74@Schlom: OPS+ is probably the best way of doing it. In 2001 the Padres led the league in scoring on the road (I’ll bet nobody really knew that), only the Giants (5.52) and the Astros (5.02) scored more then 5 runs a game on the road, the Padres were at 5.70 (they were next to last at home, ahead of only the Mets). Their OPS+ that season was just 103 while they were 3.39% better in scoring runs overall.
In 1997 they were 2nd in runs scored to the Rockies. In 1993 they had a worse OPS+ then this year (92 vs. 95).
August 2, 2008 at 9:23 pm
#74@Schlom: Good point and remember that San Diego Stadium 1969-1982 had a that huge 18 foot wall and which of course made it a total pitchers park.
1969 Padres had a OBP of .289 ….OUCH !
August 2, 2008 at 9:27 pm
I have to go watch a hockey game, so here’s my prediction for the bottom of the ninth:
Luis Rodriguez will hit a walk-off grand slam after Kouz’s single, Headley’s double and an intentional walk Bard to load the bases…
August 2, 2008 at 9:28 pm
#74@Schlom: i was just responding to 67. I know it is not the worst.
August 2, 2008 at 9:30 pm
I never realized that Barry Zito was such a good pitcher.
August 2, 2008 at 9:30 pm
#78@wrveres: Yeah, I clicked on the wrong person (since the posts were almost identical). Just going back to 1993, it’s surprising how good the Padres offense was. I’ll bet almost no one realizes that their offense has almost always been better then their pitching over the past 15 years or so.
August 2, 2008 at 9:31 pm
#71@Schlom: Deffinately the low point of the season..
Why do I keep watching this team?
August 2, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Speaking of offensive performances : How dismal is Kouzmanoff’s total approach to hitting be when after 500 PA’s he will end up with only 20 or so walks.
You would think he would get 30 or 40 just by chance.
August 2, 2008 at 9:35 pm
Was that the worst game of the season? Getting shut out by crappy Barry Zito has to be on the short list, doesn’t it?
August 2, 2008 at 9:56 pm
#83@Schlom: You see, they are not intentionally trying to tank. They are trying but are still tanking…which may be worse.
August 2, 2008 at 9:57 pm
Good news on the farm - Portland’s Wade Leblanc was masterful tonight, going 7 allowing 2 hits and striking out 11.
August 2, 2008 at 9:59 pm
What were the Vegas odds in March that the Padres would lose 100 games ? With only 51 games left, the Padres are on pace to go 61-101. Unbelievable
August 2, 2008 at 10:00 pm
#73@JP: Hi JP, the problem I have with WHIP is that it treats a Walk the same as a HR or Double. Trevor has very very high Home Run and Double numbers, despite his low Walk numbers.
August 2, 2008 at 10:01 pm
#84@JP: I don’t care how they do it, as long as they finish with the worst record in baseball. They are currently 1.5 games up on the Nationals and 0.5 on the Mariners. The Khalil injury really helped but it might take 10 starts from Tomko and Estes to clinch it.
August 2, 2008 at 10:10 pm
#87@charlie don’t surf: Very good point. When they hit him they have hit him hard, high impact, game changing extra base hits
August 2, 2008 at 10:20 pm
As they say in Texas, “Good night Y’all”.
Thanks to G.Y for the special space to express ourselves. It’s nice to that he has maintained a forum like this –a pure baseball forum with standards so that it doesn’t go down the drain like so many others. Pretty darn ‘high brow’ I would say.
August 2, 2008 at 11:22 pm
#89@JP: Wagner,Rivera,Hoffman
Hoffman: 976IP, 757H, 149/2b, 27/3b, 89HR, 272BB, 1.054WHIP
Rivera: 1001IP, 789H, 110/2b, 12/3b, 52HR, 243BB, 1.031WHIP
Wagner: 817IP, 552H, 84/2b, 5/3b, 76HR, 269BB, 1.005WHIP
Although their BBs and Hits are similar, Hoffmans 2b, 3b, and HRs are very high.
Wagners HRs and BB are also very high in comparison, despite his very low WHIP
August 3, 2008 at 4:35 am
Worst offenses in team history, OPS+
1. 1969 — 81
2. 1974 — 87
3. 1971 — 88
3. 1972 — 88
5. 1975 — 89
11. 2008 — 95
This season is the worst since 1993. The Padres first season over 100 was 1977.
Best offenses in team history, OPS+
1. 2004 — 110
The first year of Petco. You would never convince Nevin or Klesko of this.
2. 1997 — 108
3. 1998 — 107
4. 1996 — 106
5. 2006 — 104
Other than the 1995-98 era, 2004-07 has been the Padres best time for offense.