Sun, Aug 10, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres @ Rockies
12:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD, DIRECTV 739
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 185
MLB, B-R
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
Filed under In-Game Discussion.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
Send Geoff email or comment on the article (comments are moderated).
Tags: mlb, padres, rockies
Possibly Related Posts
Your comments are welcome and encouraged. However, they are subject to moderation, which means that only the best will be published. By submitting comments, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agreed to abide by the Ducksnorts Community Guidelines and Moderation Policy.
August 10, 2008 at 11:06 am
Well, the Padres win, the Chargers looked good after the first series (the first series sucked). Saturday was a good day all around. Now I need to by a 2nd Plasma so that I can watch both baseball and football simutaneously and really drive my wife nuts.
I love this time of year!
August 10, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Jody has really come into his own in the last month. I hope he will be back next season.
August 10, 2008 at 12:16 pm
I don’t think Livon Hernandez is going to last too long here.
August 10, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Am I in the right blog? Where the hell is everyone?
August 10, 2008 at 12:50 pm
KOOZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
August 10, 2008 at 12:56 pm
I was wrong about a lot of things in the offseason. A lot of things. But at least I was right about not wanting Livan Hernandez.
August 10, 2008 at 12:59 pm
#6@Ben B.: Agreed about Hernandez. I just wish someone would have listened to me during spring training about Cla Merideth.
August 10, 2008 at 1:00 pm
#2@Turbine Dude: JODY!!!!!!!!!!
August 10, 2008 at 1:02 pm
9-0!!! We haven’t had that kind of lead all season. WTF is going on?
August 10, 2008 at 1:05 pm
#7@Turbine Dude: Or the handful of relievers on the team worse than him.
August 10, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Black has had a great knack with his use of Gerut and Hairston in the second half of the season. Don’t know the numbers right off.
August 10, 2008 at 1:06 pm
NO WAY!!!!!!!!! OG!!!!!!! You’ve got to be kidding me. 11-0!
August 10, 2008 at 1:06 pm
NO WAY!!!! OG!!!!!!! You’ve got to be kidding me. 11-0!
August 10, 2008 at 1:08 pm
#13@Turbine Dude: Sorry for the duplicate posts. GY’s software messed up.
August 10, 2008 at 1:09 pm
#11@Kevin: I really want to see Jody back next year.
August 10, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Gerut since the break: .317/.377/.651
August 10, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Hariston since the break: .239/.340/.478
I guess he was mostly two hot weeks.
August 10, 2008 at 1:16 pm
#16@Kevin: Those are everyday player numbers.
August 10, 2008 at 1:16 pm
#7@Turbine Dude: It’s one thing to say the Padres should have cashed in Meredith when his value was high. Many people said that after 2006. It’s another thing entirely, and dead wrong, to say he’s a bad pitcher. At the end of the year I bet he’s at 100 OPS+, plus or minus 3.
The UT Padre Blog goes with “Corey avoids DL for now.” So we’re carrying 13 pitchers in the first place and we don’t take the opportunity to replace a bad one as soon as we get a convenient excuse?
It’s still Coors, CY. Stop nibbling. But thanks to Hawpe, no biggy.
August 10, 2008 at 1:18 pm
#18@Turbine Dude: What? Those are since the break.
August 10, 2008 at 1:23 pm
#19@Tom Waits: Tom, you know I had to get my jab in.
#20@Kevin: Kevin, those are good numbers.
August 10, 2008 at 1:24 pm
#19@Tom Waits: And yes it’s Coors, but our bats haven’t been this active in a long time.
August 10, 2008 at 1:24 pm
#18@Turbine Dude:
#20@Kevin:
Those are MVP numbers across a season.
At this point I’d look at Gerut as the Padres starting CF in 2009, with Hairston and Venable as a LF platoon. Will has been murdering RHP this year (896 OBP), and his defense plays better there too.
Really, with some tweaks to the pen and an honest attempt to shore up the rotation (no Germanos or Estes need apply), I see no reason why next year’s team can’t win 90+ games. That’s if the divorce proceedings don’t complicate things.
August 10, 2008 at 1:26 pm
#21@Turbine Dude: I respect a man who keeps punching.
August 10, 2008 at 1:27 pm
#21@Turbine Dude: Oh. Gotcha.
August 10, 2008 at 1:28 pm
#23@Tom Waits: I fully agree with that post!
August 10, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Chris Young has gotten one swing and miss all day, and that was from the pitcher. He’s not fooling anyone today.
Make that two swings and misses.
August 10, 2008 at 1:39 pm
#23@Tom Waits:
“That’s if the divorce proceedings don’t complicate things.”
That is a very large “IF.” A long draw out divorce, could freeze this team in place.
August 10, 2008 at 1:41 pm
God, I love and hate Coors field at the same time.
August 10, 2008 at 1:42 pm
#28@Field39: They are fighting over the Owner’s Box right now.
August 10, 2008 at 1:45 pm
The wheels are falling off and Steve Quis sucks.
August 10, 2008 at 1:45 pm
#29@Turbine Dude: I have no use for Coors Field, it is the most lopsided ballpark in MLB. On the other hand, Petco is the second most lopsided ballpark.
August 10, 2008 at 1:56 pm
#32@Field39: I have to disagree about the Petco Park comment. If you look at the numbers in GY’s last two DS Annuals, you’ll see the numbers are better at Petco than at the Q.
August 10, 2008 at 1:59 pm
#33@Turbine Dude: See page 33 and 34 of the 2K8 DS Annual.
August 10, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Luke!!!!!!!!!!!! Nice!
August 10, 2008 at 2:46 pm
#33@Turbine Dude: That may be true, but only because the Q was also an extreme pitcher’s park, averaging in the low 90s on the BREF scale. Doesn’t mean that Petco isn’t extraordinarily skewed.
#28@Field39: Frozen in place (65 - 75 million payroll, middlin’ commitment to the draft) doesn’t scare me. That’s what they’d been doing before any marital issues reared their heads. Radical pruning scares me, because I’m not sure if this front office has the tools to succeed in that environment. If by “freeze in place” you mean honoring the contracts they have while curtailing any future investments, then I wholeheartedly agree.
August 10, 2008 at 2:51 pm
#35@Turbine Dude: wow…what is going on today???
August 10, 2008 at 2:54 pm
#37@Masticore317: Forget it, Masticore. It’s Chinatown.
August 10, 2008 at 2:56 pm
#37@Masticore317: Livan Hernandez, for one thing.
August 10, 2008 at 3:00 pm
#36@Tom Waits: If they do not resolve it quickly. They could be in a position where every request to spend a dime, has to be approved by both lawyers. That is the kind of frozen that could destroy the organization.
August 10, 2008 at 3:02 pm
#40@Field39: Yep.
August 10, 2008 at 3:05 pm
That’s how to stay in the majors, Ledezma. Get ahead 0-2 on a guy who can’t hit a HR even in Coors, and then walk him.
August 10, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Jack-Anulty does it again … HR #10 since he was sent down to AAA … hit #9 yesterday …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_cspaaa_1
… Beaver bully fails again, however …
August 10, 2008 at 5:00 pm
And Venable with his 13th HR of the season during 2nd game of a AAA double-header …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_cspaaa_2
August 10, 2008 at 5:33 pm
#43@LynchMob: He’s jacking it!
Antonelli at .200 as well!
August 10, 2008 at 6:36 pm
2 Padres farm hands in the team photo at BA’s Prospect Hot Sheet …
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....66639.html
High Class A Lake Elsinore Kellen Kulbacki (Padres), a 2007 supplemental first-round pick out of James Madison, delivered with two home runs, a double and eight RBIs in 12 at-bats this week, as the outfielder continues to bash through the California League. Since joining the league on May 5, the lefthanded hitter owns a .349 average with 20 home runs, 16 doubles and 62 RBIs. Kulbacki, 22, leads the lead in batting average, on-base percentage (.441) and slugging percentage (.622).
A third-round pick out of Miami this summer, short-season Eugene center fielder Blake Tekotte (Padres) hit .417/.516/.917 on the week. With four homers in his first 22 games, the 21-year-old Tekotte’s power has been promising. This week, Tekotte had four multi-hit games with five doubles.
August 10, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Before today, Livan’s opponent’s batting average: .341
For his career: .282
August 11, 2008 at 4:53 am
Wow, a series win on the road. Impressive. This has been such a lost season that I’ve not participated much on the game threads, but reading this one piqued my interest about next season’s team. I’ve expressed my doubt before about the merit of Gerut, but I have to admit he’s played far better than expected offensively and defensively - his range isn’t superb but he positions himself well. I still see him as a corner outfield platoon guy, but he’s changing my mind.
Sadly, Edgar Gonzalez is very quickly reminding me why he’s a 30-year-old rookie. A lot of people here projected some irrational exuberance on his great first month, but I’ve always been wary of career minor-leaguers, and it looks like I was right. E-Gon can’t field his position, and his offensive numbers have taken a tumble. He’s 3 for 30 since July 26th, with 6 errors. I still like him as a utility guy for next year, but he can’t start.
So that leaves, around the horn, your 2009 Padres:
C - ?
1B - AGon
2B - ?
SS - Greene
3B - Kouz
LF - ?
CF - ?
RF - ?
That’s tough. 5 unfilled positions. I suppose you could plug Gerut into one of the outfield positions and Giles back into right (if the Padres pick up his option). I don’t know where Headley plays - he is a brutal outfielder, probably the worst outfielder I’ve ever seen in my life, and all reports are that he was a decent-to-good third baseman in the minors. But Kouz can’t play anywhere else. I hope the Padres can move KK for a decent arm or prospect - he just doesn’t have a fit with this team. And guys with a 318 OBP are a dime a dozen - Kouzmanoff is eminently replaceable, and I hope the Padres do just that - replace him. That moves Headley back to his natural position, and ideally he’ll hit better without the pressure of playing the outfield.
The team still needs a center fielder, and the Padres still need to figure out what to do about catcher. Bard has some nice on-base skills, but can’t stay healthy. Not sure if Hundley or Carlin are anything more than backups.
The pitching staff is another beast entirely. Young and Peavy should still be around, but there’s nobody in the minors to fill out the staff. It’s going to be ugly - not that this season isn’t ugly enough.
I want to be optimistic - I really do. But I can’t see this team, as currently constructed, as being good for a long time. There’s no offense anywhere except at first base, there’s one good starting pitcher, there’s one good reliever, and the defense, aside from AGon, Greene and maybe Gerut, is abysmal. I love 16-7 wins, but the future of this team doesn’t look good.
August 11, 2008 at 6:47 am
#48@David Coonce:
1. The Padres have 7 above-average hitters. Giles has been almost as good as Agon this year. The offense as a whole, despite an awful start, is almost average for the year now. Average may not be good enough to win a division unless the pitching is really strong, but “there’s no offense anywhere except at first base” is flat wrong.
2. I basically agree on Kouz / Headley. The current situation doesn’t seem like it can last.
3. The SP for next year is the danger zone. They’re going to need at least two pitchers, and that’s only if Banks continues to be serviceable. That’s probably a bad bet with his low K numbers.
The big problem with the 2009 Padres isn’t that the’re buried by superior talent. They’re not, no matter how badly they’ve played this year. It’s the uncertain ownership situation. That makes me wonder if the front office is already under orders not to take on additional commitments; they had a free shot at Igawa (a guy they’ve liked a lot in the past and who is very likely to outpitch the lumps they normally spend millions on at the back of the rotation) and passed.
August 11, 2008 at 7:15 pm
#49@Tom Waits:
I have tried and tried and tried and I can’t find 7 above-average hitters on this team. If you’re talking about current performance, I suppose you could argue for Giles, A. Gonzalez and Gerut, but I can’t figure out anyone else. I suppose if you’re just looking at OPS+, there are 7 players, sure, but Egon’s rapidly declining (and is league-average anyway in terms of OPS), Kouz and Headley’s defense both cost the team some of the runs they’re providing, Hairston’s a low-average, low-OBP home run hacker; - they’re a dime a dozen. I also don’t believe Giles will be around next year, especially with reports that the Padres will be cutting their payroll in half.
And if you’re using OPS+, which is a flawed statistic anyway, you’d have to argue that Bard’s 58 is more meaningful than EGon’s 101, right? Or that Khalil’s 63 OPS+, in 400 at-bats, is more significant than Headley’s 110 OPS+, in 189 ABs. The Padres have wasted more at=bats on bad performance this year than good - there’s a reason they’re being outscored by 100 runs.
I agree with you though, about the starting rotation. Right now it’s Peavy, Young, Home Run Banks, and god knows who else. Banks isn’t good and Young is never going to pitch more than 170 innings. There’s no help in the minors except for 5th starter types like InMan and LeBlanc, and as you point out, it looks as though the Padres are going to slash payroll in 2009.
SO it’s reasonable to say the 2005-2007 Padres may have been the last gasp for a long while of the Padres. It’s a shame; but when your 2009 roster is riddled with a bunch of 30-something journeymen and 2 effective starting pitchers, this is what you get.
Like I said, it’s not going to be pretty. As a lifelong Padres fan, i hope I’m wrong, I really do. But statistics and history don’t lie.
August 12, 2008 at 5:28 am
#50@David Coonce: Well, you said there’s no offense anywhere but 1b. That’s simply not true. There’s no “supposing” you could argue for Giles and Gerut, those are 120+ OPS+ bats. Whatever advanced metric you use, they’re positives. So are Kouz and Hairston; if low OBP, high SLG hitters were a dime a dozen, there’d be more of them. And whatever a player gives back on defense doesn’t change his offensive production, which was the point at issue.
I don’t know what you mean by “more meaningful.” Bard and Khalil have been worse than Egon and Headley have been good, but even with those two boat anchors, the Padre offense has clawed its way to respectability.
Just to be clear, I have no opinion on the likelihood of the Padres slashing payroll. It’s a possibility.