IGD: Padres vs Braves (11 Jul 08)
Fri, Jul 11, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres vs Braves
7:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD, DIRECTV 747
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 189
MLB, B-R
I hope to see some of you at this evening’s shindig. Rock on…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
July 11, 2008 at 8:12 am
I’d love to go, but I’ve got to intern a double-header tonite. Ugh…
July 11, 2008 at 8:38 am
To get ready for this evening’s meeting with DePo, I’m going to refresh on his latest blog entry (from July 9th) …
http://itmightbedangerous.blog.....is-in.html
… and GY’s interview with SA.
July 11, 2008 at 8:51 am
Good links from yesterday over at FJ blog …
http://padres.mlblogs.com/arch.....ly_10.html
Also, just read at MadFriars that Jaff Decker has missed a couple of AZL Padre games due to having the flu … he’ll be back in the lineup soon …
July 11, 2008 at 8:55 am
For those of you who are believers in Three True Outcomes, I present to you Jack Cust’s day at the plate yesterday: Walk, Strikeout, Walk, Home Run, Strikeout.
July 11, 2008 at 9:30 am
I will be there tonight. Let me know if anyone wants to meet up before hand and head over together.
July 11, 2008 at 9:45 am
Putting AAA in perspective, PMAC back in Portland batting 4th has 2 hits and 2 walks in his first game.
July 11, 2008 at 10:33 am
Not a good day in Trevor’s history …
This date in Padres history: July 11
2006: Trevor Hoffman takes the loss as the American League scores twice off him in the ninth to pull out a 3-2 victory in the All-Star Game at PNC Park.
2000: Hoffman allows three runs in the ninth inning as the National League loses the All-Star Game 6-3 at Turner Field.
July 11, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Joe Sheehan analyzes the Padres (for all to read, not just subscribers) at Baseball Prospectus today in preparation for tonight’s event. It’s much more pessimistic than I am, for sure.
http://baseballprospectus.com/.....cleid=7789
I think he sells basically every player on the team except Adrian Gonzalez short, particularly Chris Young. Sheehan makes the statement that only Peavy, Gonzalez, and perhaps Headley could be starters on a winning Padres team in 2009 and beyond, ignoring the fact that Giles, Greene, Bard, Young, and Kouzmanoff were starters and key players on a winning Padres team LAST YEAR. The qualifier perhaps in front of Headley is also amusing. There’s lots of other stuff to nitpick in the article (flatly declaring Headley can’t play left field, Sheehan’s insistence that Petco has a massive outfield even though its total area is basically average, his evaluation of Wolf using only ERA, etc.), but many of my objections to it could be because of my rose colored glasses.
July 11, 2008 at 12:25 pm
#8@Ben B.: Thanks for the pointer/link …
re: Petco OF … I heard Hairston on the radio earlier this week say that Petco is not a hard OF to play because the balls tend to hang up longer than at many other parks … which I find consistent with the fact that Petco plays as an extreme pitcher’s park, “even though its total area is basically average” … and yet runs counter to what appears to be most folks assumptions that “if it’s a pitcher’s park that’s hard to hit HRs in, it must be because it’s got a huge OF”.
July 11, 2008 at 12:39 pm
#9@LynchMob:
I’m right with Hairston there … it seems to me that Sheehan, writing for a saber site, would look into it a little more. He’s written that about three or four times (that it’s tough to play defense in Petco’s outfield) and I don’t think he’s right.
Anyway, I still have to read the article …
July 11, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Given the extremely deep power alleys at Petco, I’m fairly certain the square-footage exceeds that of the large majority of MLB parks.
This should increase doubles and triples, and I really can’t explain why the numbers at Petco don’t reflect that.
Anybody interested in meeting at The Field or Lou & Mickey’s before the BP thing later?
July 11, 2008 at 12:47 pm
#11@Lance Richardson:
The Field has Smithwicks on tap… I’m down!
July 11, 2008 at 12:51 pm
#9@LynchMob:
#10@MB:
I think DePo hinted at something similar this year, either in his blog or an interview. The Padres seem to have found that the environment does a lot to render otherwise tough balls catchable. So that while you might need good defenders, because it’s still a lot of ground to cover (I don’t see the area being average, Ben, but you could easily convince me), you don’t necessarily need great defenders.
I think there’s still a line between good-enough and not, and that may be why the Padres are considering the Headley / Kouz situation. They may find it harder to move Kouz until Headley gets into single digits in walks, though.
BP’s analysis of defense is easily the weakest part of their approach. They had Edmonds as a plus defender in CF this April when even Mr. Magoo could see he wasn’t.
July 11, 2008 at 12:53 pm
#9LM I’m glad Hairston voiced his opinion. I’ve always thought that that logic counterbalanced what we always hear about Petco’s OF defensive difficulty. Maybe he’s the power hitter needed in CF.
July 11, 2008 at 1:02 pm
#13@Tom Waits: I was actually going off of a post by MB where he mentions a study of outfield area by MGL. The conclusion was Petco was slightly above average in area, although MGL sort of hedges it that it might be deeper to the alleys. The whole post by MB is a good look at the ease of playing outfield defense in Petco (as well as a fond reminder of the glory days when Edmonds roamed CF).
http://friarforecast.com/?p=368
July 11, 2008 at 1:04 pm
#12@KRS1:
Kris, I just sent you an e-mail.
Give me a ring.
July 11, 2008 at 1:10 pm
#16@Lance Richardson:
Sweet. I work down the street so just let me know when and I will walk over!
July 11, 2008 at 1:17 pm
#15@Ben B.: Thanks, Ben. The alleys and walls may complicate things in Petco, and there’s probably something to be done with the spectrum of slow/fast (in that it doesn’t necessarily account for good/bad in terms of skill).
It was only one guy for one year, but Dave Roberts was fast and had a lot of OF experience and he caught a lot fewer balls than Payton or Cameron. Didn’t he? He’s way behind both of them in RZR. Maybe it was just an off-year for him.
July 11, 2008 at 1:42 pm
In this BP article today …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=7788 (subs only)
… Nate Silver makes this interesting comment …
There’s something of an implicit social contract between teams and their fans: a ballclub doesn’t have to compete every year, but it does have to look like it’s trying.
–
The context for this comment is an examination of the financial impact of “dump trades” … such as the recent Sabathia and Harden deals … looking at the CWS “white flag” trade in ‘97 and the Indian’s Colon trade in 2002 …
What the analysis, and the comment I’ve quoted above, tells me is that the Padres are very unlikely to make the wholesale changes advocated by Joe Sheehan in his article today (see link at #8) …
And it helps me to understand the Padres’ apparent position of wanting to be more consistently competitive at the expense of a “go for it” approach. (where “go for it” to me means making moves which are higher risk with the objective/goal being to have a narrow window of opportunity at making a run to a World Championship). It’s a critical operational philosophy … one that makes or breaks the deal with many fans that I know … but my guess is that it’s not as make-or-break for the majority of fans … ie. I interpret Nate Silver’s analysis as supporting a more conservative approach for a better bottom line for the business known as the San Diego Padres.
July 11, 2008 at 1:44 pm
I’ll be at the game tonight, but with like 14 relatives so I won’t be able to do the shindig.
July 11, 2008 at 2:01 pm
#20@Oside Jon: People with tix from BP will be in section 304 … stop by and say HI!
July 11, 2008 at 2:28 pm
#21@LynchMob: Will try…..I think I’m in section 314 or something so I’m close by!!!
July 11, 2008 at 2:38 pm
#17@KRS1:
Check your e-mail, Kris.
Or just gimme a ring- 619-921-2174
I seem to have misplaced your number.
July 11, 2008 at 2:43 pm
#15@Ben B.: Thanks for the mention, Ben.
#18@Tom Waits: Yeah, I’m not sure how you’d factor in the alleys, which seems to be what Sheehan is talking about. Maybe Petco’s outfield is not *that* big overall, but the alleys are … hmm, I don’t know.
July 11, 2008 at 2:43 pm
hmmmm let me write this down….
For a good time call…..
July 11, 2008 at 3:18 pm
#8@Ben B.: I think Sheehan’s piece is fairly egregious in parts.
I don’t see the point in trading Brian Giles. He will have a .400 on-base for someone next year. That number in Petco is especially impressive. Why trade five to seven wins for the heck of it?
Assuming Towers can put together some other parts, that’s the differece between 78 and 85 wins, which could be enough to win the division.
He entertains the the prospect of trading Adrian, even though he points out what a favorable contract he has. Just because Blanks is in the system?
Just because the the Padres might lose 90 games next year — or they could win 85 — I don’t see the reason to make the entire roster 22-year-olds and lose 110 for the next two seasons. That’s waving the white flag and then some.
Yes, the Padres are on pace to lose 99 games this year, but a lot had to go wrong for that to happen.
July 11, 2008 at 3:18 pm
#25@Steve C:
You bastard.
July 11, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Sheehan seems overly negative. The Padres have players at every position except short and catcher hitting above league average prior to park effects.
July 11, 2008 at 3:24 pm
#28@Richard Wade: geez, Richard, let’s not sugarcoat a probable 95-loss season.
This is a bad baseball team, and to state otherwise is just wrong.
July 11, 2008 at 4:02 pm
#29@Lance Richardson: Agree. They had some things go wrong, but not everything that went wrong was that unpredictable, and even when they had their chosen 25 all healthy they got their behinds kicked.
Still, it’s easier to go from 70 wins to 85 than from 85 to 95. A lot more of this team than Sheehan expects could be part of a 90 win club in 2009.
July 11, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Wow… Sportsline kills the Padres in this article.
They pick on the Catchers, P-Mac and the Front Office. The front office gets DESTROYED. I don’t agree with what is written but they are obviously not Alderson or DePo fans.
http://sportsline.com/mlb/story/10893336
July 11, 2008 at 4:21 pm
#30@Tom Waits: It looks like Sheehan is trying to help the Padres build that 95 win team, but that’s not really necessary or prudent at this stage. With the state of the NL West, a 95 win powerhouse probably won’t be needed to win it in 2009 like everyone thought when the Diamondbacks and Dodgers were rolling out their younger players. Average at every position + Peavy + Gonzalez can probably compete for the division next year.
July 11, 2008 at 4:33 pm
#32@Ben B.: Well, I’d always want that powerhouse, because odds are they’re going to do better in the playoffs. No guarantees, but still better chances. Plus, the powerhouse has more margin for error. Detroit got off to a terrible start, they play in a tougher division, and their chances of getting to the playoffs are much better.
When a generally-average team with a couple of above-average players goes right, it’s the 2007 Padres or Rockies. When it goes bad, it’s the ‘08 versions of those clubs. When a generally above-average team goes bad, it can still make the playoffs, but if things go right, it can be the 2001 Mariners or the
06 Tigers.
The Padres may not have had the pieces to make a Sabathia-esque move the last few years, but…..if they had, does anybody feel all that confident they would have? Or would we have held onto our chips like we did in 98? I’m not saying one way is always right, but I don’t get the feeling that the Padres will ever take that sort of chance again.
July 11, 2008 at 5:00 pm
#29@Lance Richardson: Lance, I wouldn’t call them a ‘bad team,’ per se. I’d call them a team that just hasn’t clicked.
They have all the elements and talent to contend. They just haven’t clicked. When the pitching is good, the hitting sucks. When the hitting is good, the BP blows it. They just aren’t in synch.
July 11, 2008 at 5:06 pm
#23@Lance Richardson: #25@Steve C:
Up on MySpace and YouTube already…J/K
July 11, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Gonna be a boring IGD with everyone at the DePo gig tonight…
July 11, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Turns out I will be blogging the game alone tonight.
July 11, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Hairston with a start off triple!!! Nice.
July 11, 2008 at 7:17 pm
Hi turbine dude… I’ll be staying up a bit to watch the game! And here’s my interesting comment about what just happened….
Go Scott Hairston!!!
Ummm…
I like your ball playing abilities!!!!
Uhhhhh… Yeah.
July 11, 2008 at 7:18 pm
I’m here.
July 11, 2008 at 7:18 pm
#37@Turbine Dude: I’ll try to keep you company for a while. The Diamondbacks game is on here - 5-5 in the top of the tenth…
July 11, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Are we trying to beat the Braves in number of players on a disable list?
July 11, 2008 at 7:27 pm
This is Matty tonight, is it?
July 11, 2008 at 7:28 pm
43: No. It’s horrible Stevie Q
July 11, 2008 at 7:30 pm
See. He just said “Uno, dos, adios…” Definitely Steve Quis
July 11, 2008 at 7:32 pm
#42@Steve from Boston: Disabled list: Atlanta 10, Padres 9
July 11, 2008 at 7:35 pm
46: I thought Steve just said the Braves had 20 on the DL
July 11, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Lead-off triple. What are the odds he scores?
July 11, 2008 at 7:39 pm
#32@Ben B.: I thought that as well. However, Sheehan loves the Diamondbacks (I think he’s picked them to win the division every season since 2005) and thinks that they will win 95 games for the next few years. Probably thinks the same about the Dodgers. Yet people have been saying that about those two teams for the past few seasons and it hasn’t happened yet — so maybe it won’t ever happen.
Someone talked about the negative fan reaction to fire sale trades — however if the Padres could get the return that the Indians got for Bartolo Colon in 2002 I think I’d trade Jake Peavy away. Not sure a real team would give that much away though.
July 11, 2008 at 7:39 pm
#48@Sean Callahan: Sigh…
July 11, 2008 at 7:40 pm
Boo Luke Carlin!!!
Ummm…
I do not like your ball playing abilities!!!!
July 11, 2008 at 7:44 pm
#47@Steve from Boston: Atlanta has Smoltz and Glavine on the disabled list. Not sure if the Padres can compete with that.
July 11, 2008 at 7:44 pm
#48@Sean Callahan: That was a “something new” and “something old” inning for the Padres. Khalil Greene walks (something new), a runner is stranded at 3rd with less then 2 outs (something old).
July 11, 2008 at 7:45 pm
#52@Kevin: We had Peavy and Young o the DL earlier and both are 10+ years younger than Smoltz and Glavine…
July 11, 2008 at 7:48 pm
#49@Schlom: At the time of that trade, the view was that Cleveland didn’t get that much.
Brandon Phillips was considered the best player. Sizemore wasn’t considered much of a prospect, I don’t think. Lee’s breakout this season has been a big surprise.
… But I’m not the biggest Peavy fan at the moment.
July 11, 2008 at 7:49 pm
#54@Sean Callahan: Good call.
July 11, 2008 at 7:50 pm
Scotty looking for a cycle tonight?
July 11, 2008 at 7:52 pm
EGon only with a single? I thought this was an extra-base hit only game?
July 11, 2008 at 7:54 pm
#39@Steve from Boston: #41@Sean Callahan: #40@Kevin: #49@Schlom: Glad to see I’m not alone tonight.
July 11, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Adrian with 71 RBIs while batting .278 with runners in scoring position. … Sounds like Giles being on base all the time sure does help Adrian’s numbers.
July 11, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Wish I could have made the Paul DePo thing and the game tonight.
July 11, 2008 at 7:58 pm
#55@Kevin: Actually that’s not true. Here’s what Baseball America said about the trade at the time:
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....colon.html
Basically it says that all three of the prospects (not just Phillips) were prime prospects.
However, the Expos situation was sort of unique since they were always going to be a target of contraction plus they had no idea where they were going to play in the future (in 2003 they split the season in Puerto Rico).
For that return, is there any player you wouldn’t trade? The only players that I can think of are maybe Hanley Ramirez, Tim Lincecum or Edinson Volquez (not counting salary or service time, just age).
July 11, 2008 at 8:04 pm
#62@Schlom: Very interesting.
I was mostly going by what a Cleveland fan at work said. He said he was skeptical at the time about Sizemore, because he was in the lower minors and not impressive in one of the leagues he had played in. Actually, my friend worked at Baseball America at one point. But that certainly doesn’t mean he’s always right.
July 11, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Ever notice how players without a ‘guarenteed’ position seem to play better the closer we get to a trade deadline? Things that make you go…Hmmmm?
Maybe there should be more deadlines. Just a thought.
July 11, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Hairston’s last seven days before tonight: 550/.571/1.450 with five home runs.
July 11, 2008 at 8:07 pm
#65@Kevin: Heck, he’s hitting .591 for the month with a 2.154 OPS.
July 11, 2008 at 8:09 pm
#66@Sean Callahan: I guess I’m just reporting the same thing you are - never mind…
July 11, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Phillies win 6-5 on a Werth RBI single in the bottom of the 12th. DBacks back below .500
July 11, 2008 at 8:13 pm
I just read that CBS Sportsline article on the MLB non-stars and it is incredibly harsh on McAnulty. It’s not like he was a starter or anything, he’s tied for 149th in the NL in plate appearances. Plus there are lots of LF’ers that were worse then him — Juan Pierre, Eric Byrnes, Endy Chavez, Matt Diaz, and Wily Mo Pena were all worse and Chris Duncan is about the same. Why not rip on them? I can understand tearing into the Padres catcher as they haven’t done anything at all but why pick on a backup outfielder?
July 11, 2008 at 8:14 pm
This Lilibridge guy makes me feel like I’m watching the little league world series.
July 11, 2008 at 8:17 pm
So far a shut-out for Jake. Let’s our bats can keep up and the BP doesn’t ‘F’ it up.
I’m still a glass half full guy. But, somebody has kept taking sips the first half of this season.
July 11, 2008 at 8:37 pm
Yo Adrian!!!!
July 11, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Jody!!!!! and the LF missed it! Nice…
July 11, 2008 at 8:50 pm
#69@Schlom:
Yeah, it seemed like Scott Miller - a frequent guest of the Coach’s on 1090 - was gunning for the Pads.
Pretty simplistic article.
July 11, 2008 at 8:55 pm
#74@Stephen: Miller hates the Padres with a passion. He wrote a pice last season, that could of come off the padres.com message board.
July 11, 2008 at 8:56 pm
104 pitches through 7 for Peavy.
July 11, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Bell does work often. I might go with Hoffman in the ninth to get him some work.
July 11, 2008 at 9:06 pm
#75@Field39: Really? I figured that he liked the Padres, why else would he be on 1090 so much?
July 11, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Everyone in the NL west has lost or is losing tonight except the Padres.
Dogs are down 3-0 in the 7th.
July 11, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Way to go Chase!
July 11, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Let’s have a boring 1-2-3 ninth. Please.
July 11, 2008 at 9:25 pm
#81@Sean Callahan: Amen to that.
Off to a good start.
July 11, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Adrian looked pissed after that!
July 11, 2008 at 9:28 pm
Francour has looked like sh*t at the plate tonight.
July 11, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Official scorer trying to help Adrian get the Gold Glove — or maybe he’s helping the Braves hitters. Either way, A-Gon should have made both those plays. Maybe the first one was a hit but the 2nd one was a clear error.
July 11, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Oh, no. There goes the game.
NEVER, NEVER bring Trevor in with two on and two out. WTF? Hasn’t Buddy learned anything this season?
July 11, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Trevor in the middle of an inning is never a good omen.
July 11, 2008 at 9:32 pm
I hope I’m wrong tonight.
July 11, 2008 at 9:34 pm
YES!! I’m happy when I’m wrong about these situations.
July 11, 2008 at 9:34 pm
I think Trevor got lucky on the foul ball. That pitch as belt high.
Phew - K on a 89MPH(!) fastball.
July 11, 2008 at 9:36 pm
#28 Seriously Richard, second FRIDAY OF THE MONTH,
July 11, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Enough runs for ya, Jake?
July 11, 2008 at 9:37 pm
you must have just got your Padres paycheck. boy I screwed that up.
July 11, 2008 at 9:37 pm
#91@Pudge: What does that mean?
July 11, 2008 at 9:40 pm
#92 yup and he performed. This aint some Tee ball league. He is a grown man. He can voice displeasure cant he.
July 11, 2008 at 9:40 pm
#93@Pudge: Why rip him for stating a fact? “You must be on the Padres payroll” is the lamest refrain in these discussions.
July 11, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Richard is the ultimate homer.