We looked at the Padres hitting projections on Friday and Saturday. Now it’s time for the pitchers. Be forewarned: some of these are all over the place.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 2.77 |
| Chone | 3.47 |
| Marcel | 3.56 |
| ZiPS | 2.38 |
| Average | 3.05 |
The Chone and Marcel projections make no sense. Hoffman hasn’t had an ERA that high since 1995. The other two are pretty well in line with what he’s done over the past four years. An ERA between 2.38 and 2.77 seems reasonable to me.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 3.43 |
| Chone | 3.33 |
| Marcel | 3.60 |
| ZiPS | 3.04 |
| Average | 3.35 |
I would believe any of these. Marcel is closest to what Linebrink did last year, while ZiPS is a shade lower than his career ERA.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 3.23 |
| Chone | 3.48 |
| Marcel | 3.35 |
| ZiPS | 3.06 |
| Average | 3.28 |
Hey, nobody predicts a repeat of Meredith’s 1.07 ERA. 
Seriously, I’ll take any of these.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 3.45 |
| Chone | 3.13 |
| Marcel | 3.58 |
| ZiPS | 3.23 |
| Average | 3.35 |
The most pessimistic of Peavy’s projections would have been good enough for eighth in the NL in ERA last year. The average of all four systems would have placed him fifth.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | |
| Chone | 3.67 |
| Marcel | 4.68 |
| ZiPS | 3.63 |
| Average | 3.99 |
Strickland has pitched four innings over the past three seasons. Everyone is guessing. The projections for Chone and ZiPS look a lot like what he did in 2002, his last healthy season.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 3.86 |
| Chone | 3.78 |
| Marcel | 4.41 |
| ZiPS | 3.71 |
| Average | 3.94 |
It’s easy to forget that Cassidy was pretty effective for a time in 2006. His career ERA is 4.88, and he’s 31 years old. Honestly, even that Marcel projection seems a bit optimistic to me. If this were fantasy ball, the Padres probably could move him on the basis of last year’s 2.53 ERA. Unfortunately, big-league teams have scouts that know better.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 3.87 |
| Chone | 3.50 |
| Marcel | 3.93 |
| ZiPS | 3.82 |
| Average | 3.78 |
All four systems expect at least some slippage from Young. Chone has him nearly duplicating 2006, while Marcel nails his career ERA. James and ZiPS split the difference between 2005 and 2006. These projections seem reasonable to me, and I’d be happy with any of them.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 3.63 |
| Chone | 3.93 |
| Marcel | 4.43 |
| ZiPS | 3.90 |
| Average | 3.97 |
James predicts an ERA lower than anything Maddux has done since 2002. Marcel predicts one higher than anything he’s done since 1987. The other two look about right to me, give or take.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | |
| Chone | 4.00 |
| Marcel | 4.50 |
| ZiPS | 4.05 |
| Average | 4.18 |
Adams was acquired from Cleveland last summer for Brian Sikorski. His career ERA is 3.54, but that’s over just 68 2/3 innings. Who knows.
| ERA | |
|---|---|
| Bill James | 3.95 |
| Chone | 3.76 |
| Marcel | 4.88 |
| ZiPS | 4.06 |
| Average | 4.16 |
Brocail’s peripherals were pretty strong in 2006. Sure, he’s 40 years old and had injury problems, but everyone except Marcel thinks he’s still useful. I’m inclined to agree.
That’s enough for now. We’ll cover the rest of the Padres pitchers tomorrow.
Overall, that shapes up to be a very solid team ERA. Do you have the numbers on Wells?
With as many innings as Trevor will pitch, it would only take two (more)distaster inning to inflate his ERA to that 3.5 range… But even then, this staff (starters & relievers) will be one of the best in all of baseball.
I have so much freaking faith in Meredith. I say his ERA this year is around 2.
I loveeeeeeee talking about Cla when I’m hanging out with Red Sox fans.
ZiPS for Wells isn’t pretty: 4.76 ERA in only 123 IP.
Marcel isn’t any better: 4.69 ERA in only 116 IP.
I can understand the pessimism after his last two seasons. But I really think if he’s healthy, he can easily best those pitching in Petco.
What I see here looks great: our top three in the pen look good for next year, Peavy, Young, and Maddux are going to be a formidable top of the rotation, and it’s a good bet that one of these lower tier bullpen options breaks out.
PECOTA is a little more optimistic on Wells, with a weighted mean projection of 4.12 ERA (4.54 in neutral park environment).
Peavy, Young and Hensley are the top three. Why does everyone say Maddux?