Just finishing up from yesterday. We’ll run the pitchers tomorrow — including David Wells, who reportedly has signed a 1-year deal for $3 million. (Gut reaction: I’m happy with the signing, although having two guys over 40 in the rotation makes me a little nervous.)
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .250 | .343 | .446 |
| Chone | .250 | .340 | .434 |
| Marcel | .259 | .338 | .471 |
| ZiPS | .251 | .334 | .446 |
| Average | .253 | .339 | .449 |
Most of these are about the same. The only exception is Marcel, which sees Cameron maintaining his power numbers of the past three seasons. The other systems all have his SLG dropping back to the level of his final two seasons in Seattle.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .274 | .350 | .462 |
| Chone | .255 | .331 | .419 |
| Marcel | .264 | .335 | .431 |
| ZiPS | .260 | .339 | .436 |
| Average | .263 | .339 | .437 |
Sledge has a very spotty track record at the big-league level, and the projections reflect this. There’s about a 20-point spread in batting average and OBP, and a 40-point spread in SLG. The James numbers seem a bit optimistic. Even so, this looks like a Garret Anderson stat line to me.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .261 | .326 | .437 |
| Chone | .255 | .326 | .431 |
| Marcel | .262 | .327 | .446 |
| ZiPS | .253 | .324 | .418 |
| Average | .258 | .326 | .433 |
Everything here looks about right except for the ZiPS power numbers. Greene’s career ISO is .179, and it’s never been lower than .173 in a single season. In fact, his ISO has increased in each of his full big-league seasons, but ZiPS has it at .165 in 2007. I don’t buy that Greene’s power is in decline at age 27.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .280 | .349 | .423 |
| Chone | .255 | .328 | .378 |
| Marcel | .281 | .349 | .438 |
| ZiPS | .270 | .344 | .381 |
| Average | .272 | .343 | .405 |
Throw out the Chone projections on this one; Walker’s never put up numbers like that in the big leagues. Batting average around .270-.280 seems like a safe bet, as does OBP around .345-.350. Power numbers are all over the place. Who knows.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .242 | .323 | .388 |
| Chone | .232 | .309 | .363 |
| Marcel | .263 | .340 | .420 |
| ZiPS | .220 | .306 | .339 |
| Average | .239 | .320 | .378 |
Bowen has 131 career at-bats. Not enough data. Take these projections and throw darts at ‘em.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .238 | .298 | .357 |
| Chone | .229 | .283 | .342 |
| Marcel | .242 | .298 | .373 |
| ZiPS | .233 | .295 | .344 |
| Average | .236 | .294 | .354 |
Two questions:
- How did Blum post a .362 OBP in 2002?
- Why is he still on the roster?
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .242 | .345 | .427 |
| Chone | .239 | .345 | .401 |
| Marcel | .246 | .344 | .434 |
| ZiPS | .228 | .328 | .375 |
| Average | .239 | .341 | .409 |
The ZiPS numbers are pretty far out of line from the others. Chone doesn’t like his power. Honestly? I think Cruz is a great platoon partner for Sledge, because aside from the batting average, I can’t tell their two projected lines apart.
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .254 | .289 | .422 |
| Chone | .261 | .307 | .415 |
| Marcel | .274 | .327 | .445 |
| ZiPS | .277 | .315 | .416 |
| Average | .267 | .310 | .425 |
It’s weird that the OBP range is wider than the SLG range. No great insight here; it’s just weird.
There you go. Pitchers tomorrow.
Two SP’s over 40 in a rotation should make one a little nervous. The upside, though, is that the two are Wells, who despite his rep as being fat, out of shape and injury prone, still has thrown at least 184 innings in 3 of his 4 seasons since turning 40, and Maddux, who has thrown at least 210 in each of the past 4.
Just one more year, fellas!
David Wells is cool!
GY, a tenth sign on whether a person thinks too much about the Padres. I was reading this morning that Towers said this year’s rotation was the best since ’98, then it listed the starters from ’98. When I got to Langston’s name I got that same cringe in the back of my neck that I got when he made that relief appearance in the WS. 9 years later and I get that same cringe? I need an intervention.
So Geoff, I’m sitting in a large conference room in the offices of Major League Baseball last week (no shit) and Jonathan Mariner, the Exec VP and CFO of MLB, who used to be in the Marlin’s organization starts telling us about how Dave Dombrowski built the 1997 World Series Champions and the moves that Dombrowski made in the prior offseason. Someone in the group of students I was with mentions Sheffield and Mariner says, no actually, the Marlins acquired him during the ’93 season in a trade. So, he asks the group of us if anyone knows for whom Sheffield was traded.. So, with confidence I answered Hoffman. Yup, he was blown away. Of course, I had already made some sort of obnoxious Padres reference during my introduction, but still, I don’t think he thought anyone would know the answer. So, Geoff, I have you to thank for that moment, since I would have remembered that if you hadn’t mentioned it in one of your write-ups around the breaking of the saves record…. Cool stuff. Btw: Mariner’s a big Hoffman fan. Anywho, Thanks GEOFF!
oh, that was supposed to read “I would NOT have remembered that if you hadn’t mentioned it…”
Has anyone signed Estes, CHP or Seanez?
Kevin, we signed Estes to a minor league deal. I think he’ll be ready to pitch in about June, from what I remember. CHP has not been signed and I haven’t seen any rumors about him. Seanez was being offered a spot from another team, but I don’t remember which one.
OK, thanks.
Seanez has been rumored interest from the Rockies
http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_5033528
4 – Marsh … thanks for the story … well done! Got any other stories from your day at MLB HQ?