IGD: Padres @ Diamondbacks (30 Sep 06)

first pitch: 1:10 p.m., PT
television: FOX
matchup: David Wells (2-5, 4.80 ERA) vs Juan Cruz (5-6, 4.27 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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Despite every outcome working against the Padres on Friday night, Baseball Prospectus has their odds of reaching the post-season at 95.8% with two games remaining. Clay Hensley made one bad pitch Friday (and upon further review, it wasn’t that bad of a pitch — Eric Byrnes went down and got it) and Livan Hernandez did what he does, which is throw a lot of junk and leave the opposition frustrated when he’s on. I’m not making excuses, just noting that sometimes you have to give the other team credit for coming out and competing when there isn’t necessarily anything in it for them beyond pride.

It’d be nice to see the Giants do the same against the Dodgers, but that is neither here nor there.

David Wells gets the start Saturday night for the Padres. I’d like to say something positive here, but I’m not feeling terribly inspired, so we’ll leave it at that. On a brighter note, the only members of the bullpen Bruce Bochy seems to trust have had two straight days off and should be good to go for these final two regular-season games.

Current Diamondbacks have had a fair amount of success against Wells, hitting .299/.322/.502 against him in 221 at-bats. The main culprits have been Luis Gonzalez (.409/.435/.773 in 22 AB), Eric Byrnes (.467/.529/.733 in 15 AB), and Robby Hammock (.500/.500/1.100 in 10 AB).

On the flip side, Juan Cruz gets the start for the Snakes. Matt Vasgersian and Tony Gwynn mentioned during Friday night’s telecast that Arizona manager Bob Melvin plans to give Cruz two innings before turning the game over to originally scheduled starter, Enrique Edgar Gonzalez. Both throw right-handed, although Cruz (801 OPS vs LHB, 626 OPS vs RHB) has much more pronounced lefty/righty splits than does Gonzalez (747 821 OPS vs LHB, 781 797 OPS vs RHB).

Scoreboard watching? Yeah, a little:

Don’t bonk. Go Padres!

361 Responses »

  1. I’m thinking Klesko makes it on the postseason roster.

  2. Is Ben Johnson eligible for the postseason roster? I thought he was, b/c they moved Klesko to the 60 day DL around the same time.

  3. Great day! and to all ducksnorters and a big hand to our dear leader, GY, hurray!!! for leading th charge this season and providing us all a forum to talk about our favorite team.

    I was in PB and as soon as AG picked it for the final out, I honked my horn like an idiot. Hope the tourist infront of me understood.

    BTW, so good to see Kahlil back. He really made some great plays that Blum, God bless him, could not have made (especially picking that bad throw from Woody on the DP).

    To the Padres and all Ducksnorters, CHEERS!!! and congratulations!!!

    Now lets knock those hated (with a passion) Dodgers out of our rightful position as NLW champs!

  4. “Well, congrats to them. They’ve won it two years in a row,” said the Diamondbacks’ Craig Counsell. “We’ve come in and said the division’s up for grabs and they’ve grabbed it two years in a row.”

  5. San Diego finished September 19-9, matching the most wins in the month in franchise history.

  6. The Padres also posted a winning record for three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history.

  7. I don’t think there is any doubt after today that both Greene and Klesko are on the post season roster. Adding Greene’s bat and klesko’s at certain times(pinch hitting, DH in World Series :) ) is going to be huge.

    All of those off days in the playoffs are going to make the bullpen awfully tough especially with Peavy throwing a higher % of starts then normal.

    Mark

  8. 346 — Webb is just 3 ER away from an ERA of 3. If we beat him tomorrow, give him a line of something like 5.2 IP, 5 ER, his ERA will be over 3 and none of the SPs will look like great candidates.

  9. I’m a big Hoffman fan, but does anyone really think that a 1.89 ERA in 62 innings, almost all in low-pressure situations, is better than a 3.00 ERA in 220 to 230 innings?

    Do you really want Hoffman to win an award that he doesn’t deserve just to give the Padres some props?

    I would like to see the award go to the pitchers who do the heavy lifting.

  10. Well, Hoffman probably deserves consideration just because he was one of the top 2 relievers in the NL. That said, he should not win.

  11. I don’t believe Hoffman is anywhere near Webb or Carpenter this year, but I’d be all for a kind of career-recognition Cy Young award for him. Kind of like how A-Rod got that one MVP out of recognition for like 4-5yrs of excellence.