first pitch: 1:10 p.m., PT
television: FOX
matchup: David Wells (2-5, 4.80 ERA) vs Juan Cruz (5-6, 4.27 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets
Despite every outcome working against the Padres on Friday night, Baseball Prospectus has their odds of reaching the post-season at 95.8% with two games remaining. Clay Hensley made one bad pitch Friday (and upon further review, it wasn’t that bad of a pitch — Eric Byrnes went down and got it) and Livan Hernandez did what he does, which is throw a lot of junk and leave the opposition frustrated when he’s on. I’m not making excuses, just noting that sometimes you have to give the other team credit for coming out and competing when there isn’t necessarily anything in it for them beyond pride.
It’d be nice to see the Giants do the same against the Dodgers, but that is neither here nor there.
David Wells gets the start Saturday night for the Padres. I’d like to say something positive here, but I’m not feeling terribly inspired, so we’ll leave it at that. On a brighter note, the only members of the bullpen Bruce Bochy seems to trust have had two straight days off and should be good to go for these final two regular-season games.
Current Diamondbacks have had a fair amount of success against Wells, hitting .299/.322/.502 against him in 221 at-bats. The main culprits have been Luis Gonzalez (.409/.435/.773 in 22 AB), Eric Byrnes (.467/.529/.733 in 15 AB), and Robby Hammock (.500/.500/1.100 in 10 AB).
On the flip side, Juan Cruz gets the start for the Snakes. Matt Vasgersian and Tony Gwynn mentioned during Friday night’s telecast that Arizona manager Bob Melvin plans to give Cruz two innings before turning the game over to originally scheduled starter, Enrique Edgar Gonzalez. Both throw right-handed, although Cruz (801 OPS vs LHB, 626 OPS vs RHB) has much more pronounced lefty/righty splits than does Gonzalez (747 821 OPS vs LHB, 781 797 OPS vs RHB).
Scoreboard watching? Yeah, a little:
- Phillies at Marlins — 10:20 a.m., PT
- Dodgers at Giants — 1:15 p.m., ET
Don’t bonk. Go Padres!
192: I’d like to see how that breaks down with respect to who was playing 3rd. Could Vinny have cut down on Khalil’s range? Not that Vinny had any range but he may have played more towards the hole than Walker/Branyan.
is wins shares “offense only” or both?
Yikes. Cmon, Cla, pull it together!
Marsh, RF is range factor (total chances divided by innings), ZR is zone rating (discussion on ZR here).
203 – Done!
I think Khalil’s rookie season is a fluke. It made him look like a potential superstar, but he didn’t dominate in the minors as a potential superstar should. But I think the rookie year lingers in people’s minds and someone will overpay for that superstar potential.
Kevin, we can continue this discussion in November, but just off the top of my head, SS in the NL that are better defensivly?
Furcal, Wilson, Everett, Vizquel, Rollins…
That is 5 off the top of my head…so no, he is not one of the best Defensive SS in the NL…
Cla gives up the HR, but we still have the 2 run lead…why does it not feel safe with Linebrink coming in?
And Win Shares take in Offense as well…If I am not mistaken, we were talking about Greene’s defense only.
194, I think that changes soon, if so, we need to get what we can this offseason, however, we don’t have even a decent SS in the high-minors right now… We need to acquire someone soon… I’d love to see the Padres swing a 3-way trade to get Arizona’s Callaspo
…cause he won’t start over Drew
Do you leave Cla out there for the 8th? Pitcher’s spot coming up, so figure a lefty PH, then Counsell – again a lefty, and Hudson, who I think is a switch hitter, right?
Giants continue to offer little resistance. Down 4-2 after eight.
Bard all over first pitches today. Not with success though
Linebrink’s solid – he just has an awful July and average August…
i’m not going to feel comfortable until the game is over…
um, guessing KG will get a lot of fastballs in on the hands…
No offense but I think it’s still an inexact science to measure defense…with so many fly ball pitchers on the Padres staff, how you you possibly measure Greene against someone like Rollins?
Yea Peter…that is true…I just have not gotten the trust factor back with him yet.
I like Khalil Greene + pieces for Tejada
All the experts talk about the Dodgers-Giants rivalry, but I don’t think it’s there anymore, nowhere near the emotion (from either side) when we play the Dodgers… I think the Giants are mailing it in…
re: 202
Win Shares breaks things down between hitting and fielding and pitching. The rankings I was using was just the fielding part.
Nice walk KG…
And there goes Gracie talking about how Greene is “One of the best defensive SS’s in baseball.”
I guess I am in the minority that really just does not see it…
I also think that Jeter is just average at SS, so apparently I am a moron.
pieces of what, pure platinum?
Trevor finished his massage and has now entered the shower. 130 degrees, Fragrance of the Dales bar soap (reminds him of his great-uncle), and a fluffy mauve towel.
Just in case anybody was wondering.
pile on guys, pile on – we need points!
didn’t advanced defensive metrics show Jeter to be consistently one of the worst SS?
Eric, Tejada should be a 3 bagger going forward…he is too bulky to play SS…
But again, I have already proven that I am a baseball maroon anyway…
I guess pieces is understating…probably have to be of the Carillo ilk, I guess I meant “pieces” as in Greene is the “centerpiece”
Baltimore still a ways away… Tejada can be had… I bet Baltimore would be interested in Futures Game participant Luis Cruz (who really does suck) + others… A-ball fire-ballers
Eric, yes they did and so did my eyes…but apparently a good bat wins Gold Gloves these days…
Nothing new though, Raphy “Horse Roids” Palmerio won a gold glove while only playing 28 games at 1b a couple of years ago.
re: 221
Now Jeter — there’s someone who is horrible. All the metric and The Fielding Bible say he is a joke at shortstop. The Fielding Bible said he was the worst in the majors last year.
they used to show that Jeter was that, but he’s actually improved w/ age (and as the matricies have improved)… but he still cannnot range behind 2nd…
re: 216
Some of the metrics take all that into account.
Well, 6 more outs…c’mon Liney!!!
in that case, good….we can take advantage of our lower minors depth maybe
Okay, more of that.
sucks that Carillo’s value is shot right now
I WANT Callaspo – it would take a 3-way though…
well, we can’t do anything the easy way, can we? Who’s coming in – Cla or Liney…or Embree for the inevitable LHPH?
I am trying not to be negative, but I still have a very bad feeling about all of this. I was tracking, intermittently, the Phillies-Fish. Uggla hit a 403 foot out, that would have won it, for the final out of the game (they lost 4-3, there was a runner at 3rd).
SF, once again, doing nothing against the Dodgers.
And we have left a lot of guys out there, in a 3-1 game. Some bad execution, some bad luck. Wells was cruising, but Meredith/Linebrink/Hoffman are not automatic. I really, really don’t want to go to a tomorrow without a playoff spot assured.
…and I’m hesitant to offer something that helps the D’Backs too
Wow, they showed the fan who ran on the field. They never do that anymore.
Peter you worry me…
Now, if you want to talk about getting Crede, I may cope to a man crush on him! 
Stupid people running on the field…is it bad that I was worried that my Bro in Law might have been the guy?
LaMar gets arrested!
who’s Brian Wilson? He’s pitching for the Giants and he has a Padres hat in his photo
And FOX gives the idiots who rushed the field serious face time. Guess that’s FOX being FOX.
I hope that didn’t bother Linebrink. Yeah, I know it shouldn’t but things happen.
wait – shouldn’t Matt Bush be ready for the bigs? I mean, Stephen Drew just yanked one into the swimming pool (guess – I’m watching the game on gamecast), and Verlander is battling Jared Weaver for AL ROY honors… seems like Matt Bush should be ready to achieve his destined greatness….. (shoveling tacos at some late night tijuana taco stand)
Let’s hope that doesn’t affect Linebrink.
Callaspo is BETTER defensively and his bat has been compared to Gwynn & [1970's-80's Twins/Angels 2B - won batting titles - starts w/ a C] for his bat control – RARELY strikes out… LOVE that kid
Two outs! Go Linebrink!