first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Pedro Astacio (3-10, 5.85 ERA) vs Vicente Padilla (5-11, 5.00 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
For the second straight game, the Padres face a pitcher with an ERA of exactly 5.00. Unfortunately, unlike Friday night the Friars aren’t sending a better pitcher out there. No offense (pun intended), but if you let Jon Lieber shut you down, you deserve what you get.
Jake Peavy pitched a great game. That’s not what he’ll tell you but aside from some first-inning struggles, he did just fine. Peavy isn’t the guy who ran the bases poorly in the seventh. Peavy isn’t the guy who made sure Xavier Nady never saw the light of day, even when flamethrowing lefty Billy Wagner entered the contest.
Saturday night features Padilla, who started against the Padres in Philly on July 22. Padilla allowed three runs over six innings, and the Phillies eventually won in the 11th on a walkoff two-run jack by Chase Utley. This was the fifth defeat in a row for the Pads, in what turned out to be an eight game losing streak.
The Padres figure to stack the lineup with lefties against the Nicaraguan born righthander, who has some pretty extreme splits:
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB/HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs left | 185 | .314 | .408 | .600 | 15.4 |
| vs right | 179 | .229 | .317 | .374 | 44.8 |
Not a lot of Padres have faced him much. The ones who have generally have done pretty well, and most of the success (with the notable exception of Mark Loretta) has come from lefties. Here’s how Saturday night’s starters have fared against the opposition:
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB/HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astacio vs current Phillies | 188 | .303 | .393 | .596 | 15.7 |
| Padilla vs current Padres | 95 | .295 | .380 | .516 | 19.0 |
Pretty much everyone hits Astacio. Kenny Lofton is 0-for-11, and Jimmy Rollins is hitting .115/.207/.231 over 26 career at-bats. The rest? Of the guys who have 10 or more plate appearances against Astacio, Mike Lieberthal, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, and Todd Pratt all have OPS higher than 1000 in those matchups.
For the Padres, it’s Ryan Klesko (.462/.588/.769 in 13 AB), Loretta (.455/.500/.818 in 11 AB), and Robert Fick (.333/.368/.444 in 18 AB) doing most of the damage. In a smaller sample, Brian Giles (.500/.636/1.375 in 8 AB) has put up some Nintendo numbers against Padilla.
My advice? If you want to see the starters pitch, better get to the park early.
Linkapallooza
- Padres activate Seanez from DL (Yahoo). Craig Breslow is sent to Portland to make room. Did you know that Seanez is fifth on the team in strikeouts?
- Klesko must go back to first base (Padres.com). I dunno. I can’t really get too worked up over where Klesko plays as long as Nady continues to ride pine.
- Floyd angry after Otsuka hits him in knee (NY Newsday). Quoth Floyd: “We already lost two of our guys, and instead of just putting four fingers up and walking me, he throws the ball right into my knee. You can’t let teams disrespect you like that.” It’s like Ray Davies says: paranoia will destroy ya.
- Beavers find hitting power for home win (Oregonian). Sean Burroughs hits a grand slam!
- Conversation with Dustin Delucchi (PDX Beavers). Jonathan chats with the Beavers center fielder. Delucchi is, among other things, a childhood friend of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
- Padres Lose By One, Nady Watches From Bench (Future Friars). Richard is glad to see the 26-year-old stud hitter get the rest he needs. No, not really. He’s pissed, like the rest of us.
Tunes: Beck, White Stripes, Kurt Elling, Pinback, R.E.M., The Killers, Muse.
Well, the better the hitter, the more opportunities you want him to have. Giles is by far our most valuable hitter. I think hitting him first or second would make more sense than fourth.
The pitched around Giles that inning, so it didn’t force them to pitch to him in an even worse situation.
and with Sweeney’s numbers, Klesko shouldn’t hit ahead of him either.
you arent listening. Giles behind Klesko was to force them to pitch to KLESKO!!
which they did, instead of intentionally walking him to face Giles with the bases loaded. Klesko just didnt come through. He(klesko) had the perfect rbi situation and failed, as did Sweeney and Loretta(a little less perfect chance)
I am listening. I just don’t agree. I was responding to the second half of your setence — “or else face Giles in an even worse situation.”
Sigh, it just keeps getting worse. Astacio really has pitched a beautiful game.
Your No. 3 hitter should be your most feared hitter: Bonds, Manny Ramirez, etc.
if they dont pitch to Klesko, they face giles with the bases loaded, right?
OK, I understand that point. But we still don’t agree. Anyway, if you can’t get the No. 8 hitter out, get out of the league. I never buy that move.
You need more than ONE guy to have an offense. Giles is not going to get pitched to, regardless.
We just couldnt come up with a hit, again.
But the Phillies get a chance with two out and they plate a run.
I agree. You need more than one guy, and our offense is not bringing it. We wouldn’t have scored that inning with my batting order. Having said that, I don’t think our batting order makes sense, and the Klesko/Giles part is just one part that doesn’t make sense.
Not looking like our night. The good news is, the rest of the division has already lost.
I think I’ve had enough of Randa in the #2 hole.
Here on the East coast, it’s already Loretta’s birthday.
yes, its becoming obvious that Randa’s rep as a slugging 3rd baseman was entirely based upong playing in Cinncy. He is now slg .359 for us and hitting a paltry .250.
we need someone in the lineup who’s knees dont get weak with runners in scoring position. We only score when the whole team is hitting and we have a lead and the pressure is off. Even Loretta is struggling to drive in runs.
Klesko walk. Here we go.
Hope Giles dont strike out LOOKING.
At least try to do something!
We need dj to steal a base, sweeney might actually hit a single..
crap, dj stole it but sweeney struck out.. well still a chance with runner in scoring position.
I think Mark is our best rbi guy so hopefully he can get a bingle
damn, I was hopeing that he would get a fat pitch to hit.. now it comes to Khalil..
!! how did Khalil hit that pitch that far!!??
Well, at least we got one run to take Astacio off the hook.
damn, lo is just too slow, but Khalil comes through to at least tie it.
Good hit by Greene. I think you had to send Loretta there, so …
In all fairness to Lo, its hard to score from first unless you are Jackson or Roberts..
Oh yeah Kev, definately had to send him. The way we have been struggling to score runs you got to take that chance.
Trevor in a tie? Bochy should know better by now. Dammit…
here we go…arrrrrrrgh!
that was quick…and Bochy dont want to embarass his closer by pulling him so it might get worse
Hoffman is so methodical and meticulous in his routine that when the routine is broken (i.e. not a save situation), he seems less effective. The numbers support this, I’m just too lazy to look em up.
I think bringing in Hoffman is the right move. He just hasn’t responded well.
Man, when the wheels come off, they really come off.
pathetic!!!
OK, this is officially a disaster.
close the barn door, the horse is gone!
not much chance to take this one. we might get to see Nady try to hit a 3 run homer against wagner with nobody on.
Wow, too bad that homer by Olivo doesn’t mean anything.
Hey, what a great time to use Nady. He could hit a solo homer right here to cut the lead to 5-3 in the ninth.
Tomorrow we play to avoid the series sweep and a losing homestand. And the Padres remain in first place by three games in the NL West.
too bad we have to rely on CHP to stop the losing streak. I know he had a good game last time but I dont have a lot of faith in him. Maybe he can convince me tomorrow. Of course, if we dont score we cant win…
but thats another story.
I would love to see the Nady debate addressed in a way other than fans/blogs. That’s not to say we don’t address it beautifully, but …
Have any of the people covering the team addressed this issue? I would love to hear the explanation from Bochy. It may be reasonable. I don’t have to agree, but it may be reasonable.
I don’t think Bochy is a genius, but I don’t think he is an idiot either. So I’m sure he has something reasonable to say on this issue. I do not believe Bochy has a doghouse, nor that Nady is it.
A good beat writer or columnist should say, hey, this is something lots of fans talk about, what gives?
From a numbers and positional availablilty/capability perspective, it is not hard to see why Nady doesn’t play a lot:
1. He has not hit righties well at the major league level – his OPS is 9th among currently active Padres versus them. He had a Burroughs-like .661 OPS against them in 2003/2004. That is where most PA opportunities arise. Yes, he runs into pitches occasionally for HRs against them, but that is usually against finesse pitchers or scrub relievers or in Colorado. His BA and OBP are horrible against righties.
2. If one is talking about coming in as a pinch hitter and giving the team a lift with one swing of the bat, he has not shown that he can do that well, in the limited opportunities he has been given so far – 4 for 24, with 2 HBP, 4 BB, no XBH.
3. Sweeney and Fick are hitting very well this year.
4. a. The Padres traded for Joe Randa; b. Bochy doesn’t think Nady can play third.
Intuitively or perhaps emotionally, Geoff and others want Nady to play more, meaning against more righties (he plays every time against lefties). Maybe he would do better if he got more chances against righties; maybe not. While the team is still fighting for a playoff spot, that might not be a risk that Bochy considers worth taking.
Thanks for your thoughts, TF. Responding to your points:
1. Although Nady hadn’t hit righties particularly well in the past, that was changing earlier this year when he was getting more opportunities against them. Even now, he has a semi-respectable 735 OPS (not great, but better than Nevin, Burroughs, Jackson, and Blum to name a few Padres/former Padres who have more at-bats against RHP than Nady). He also has the best AB/HR ratio against right handers on the entire team. Better than Klesko, Sweeney, Giles, you name it. I don’t know precisely which pitchers he’s been pounding, but I can’t believe they’re all scrubs.
2. Nady isn’t a pinch hitter. Having him play irregularly, in a role to which he is unaccustomed, is setting him up for failure. To Nady’s credit, he’s done a real nice job this year despite being jerked around.
3. As I’ve said, I have no gripe with Sweeney. He’s playing great, ride the hot hand (and don’t let him run the bases late in games). Fick is a little different story in that he actually had to come in and catch for a while. No problem. My real issues were with Nevin and Burroughs.
4. Yes, the Padres traded for Randa because they would not even give Nady a shot at third base before making the determination that he could not handle the position. Why does the team have no problem throwing him into the role of pinch hitter, for which he is no less well suited? Or sticking Adam Eaton in the bullpen despite no previous experience there at this level?
Yeah, it is emotional. It’s damned frustrating to watch a team that struggles to score runs *repeatedly* pass over its best power source in favor of weaker options. I’m sure the folks in charge have their reasons, but I’ll be darned if I can figure out what they are. I suspect your comment about Bochy and his aversion to risk may have something to do with it. I can’t speak for him because I haven’t walked in the man’s shoes, but as a fan, it’s real irritating to watch one of the team’s best power hitters sit on the bench more often than not.
Honestly, if this is what Nady’s role is going to be with the Padres, we should have traded him for starting pitching and promoted someone like Jon Knott or Ben Johnson to take his place on the bench.
TF,
Nady has a 15.5 AB/HR rate against right handed pitching. Such raw power cannot be ignored. His limited playing time has to affect his consistency. It is not unreasonable to suggest that increased playing time would facilitate a higher BA/OBA. You have to find a spot for a guy with a .250 ISO unless he proves that he is incapable of hitting for any kind of average.
Nady can be no worse at third than Geoff Blum was at second, Ojeda was in right, Nevin/Sweeney are at first or than Fick behind the plate.
I have previously suggested that Nady be platooned at first with Sweeney and also platoon with Damian Jackson in center.
Geoff, the thrust of my post on Nady was dealing with the present moment where Nady finds himself. You arguments seem primarily focused on the past, where we don’t have much disagreement, but we should be focused on why Nady isn’t getting more playing time now. That is why I mentioned how low his OPS against righties is for CURRENT Padres.
To the extent you had gripes about the past, and specifically Nady not playing over Burroughs or Nevin or Blum, I understand and am somewhat sympathetic. On the other side, Bochy had past performances to deal with when he made his initial decisions this year – in the past, Burroughs and Nevin had been better hitters against righties than Nady. It is difficult to overcome such predispositions and go with performance, but it took some time to reveal those things this year. Burroughs started off hot in April; Nevin, for all of his difficulties this year as a whole, was very clutch early, driving in 20 runs in April and 19 more in May. Bochy tends to stay with “proven” players longer, so that partially explains why he stuck with Nevin and Burroughs over Bochy. Blum and Jackson play more infield positions than Nady, so that accounts for at least a portion of their greater plate appearances against righties.
As for third base, Bochy’s decision not to play Nady has some basis. There were numerous reports out of spring training that Nady looked very poor at third – particularly in terms of footwork and throw accuracy. This apparently continued in pre-game practice sessions. Personally, I would have overlooked that to get Nady some starts at third over Burroughs, but the decision still is grounded in reality.
In the present, if he wants more PT, Nady has to produce more when he gets pinch hitting opportunities; he has to produce more when he gets spot starts against righties. He looked awful against Tejeda today.
For your information, Nady has homered off the following – Joe Kennedy (lefty scrub at Coors), Scott Dohmann (righty scrub RP at Coors), Ryan Vogelson (righty scrub RP), Brandon Lyon (righty closer in a 5-2 Diamondbacks lead in 9th), Greg Maddux (finesse righty, score not close at time), Gil Meche (righty scrub starter with reverse splits), Aaron Sele (righty scrub, released), Joel Piniero (righty scrub starter with reverse splits), DJ Houlton (righty rule V draftee), Wandy Rodriguez, Jeff Francis (at Coors), and Esteban Loiaza (finesse righty starter).
Good stuff on the pitchers who have allowed homers to Nady this year. That is a pretty iffy bunch.
I agree Nady has to produce more against RHP, but here is the catch-22: How is he going to produce more against them if he isn’t given the opportunity? Getting maybe 5 PAs a week against righties doesn’t strike me as the best way to help him develop.
Yeah, I know the Pads are in the playoff hunt and maybe developing a player at the big league level isn’t the biggest priority, but it really disturbs me that they don’t even seem to be looking in his direction.
To use Tejeda as an example, I fully expect Nady’s performance against him as further “evidence” that he can’t hit righties. And so one of our better power options will continue to be underutilized. As a fan who wants to see this team score runs and win games, that bothers me.
If you primarily want the team to score runs and win games, then it would seem that at this time you would not want X Nady to play against most right handers, except for finesse righties, or guys with reverse splits. You also wouldn’t want to see him pinch hit, particularly not against right handed power relievers. You would want the hotter of Sweeney or Fick to get the bulk of starts at 1B or as the primary OF sub against right handers.
If instead you primarily want X Nady to develop into the best player he can be, then Nady should start every day, preferably at first and occasionally in LF or RF, with Giles moving to center. You might or might not get the side bonus of the team scoring more runs and winning more games.
Maybe there is a happy medium, if Klesko keeps scuffling and being bothered by his back and neck issues . . .
Richard, I don’t ignore Nady’s raw power, but there are sample size issues, including issues with the pitchers against whom he has done that damage and where he has done it. There is also the bigger issue that Sweeney is giving you over 250 more OPS points than Nady against righties. Right now, with the team still alive for the playoffs, I don’t want Rob Deer minus plate discipline playing every day.
It is not unreasonable to argue that Nady’s numbers would improve with more playing time against righties. It is also not unreasonable to argue than Nady would regress with more such playing time – the book on him could be better developed, and he pretty much did that when given the chance to start every day in 2003.
I do not understand a Nady/Jackson platoon in center, when Roberts is giving you 50 more OPS points than Nady, and 190 more OPS points than Jackson against righties, and Roberts gives you “hidden SLG” with his high stolen base success rate against righties. Nady is also an awful defensive CF; Roberts is better defensively than Nady despite his bad arm.
I also do not see the current relevance of comparing past players in odd positions with Nady. In the present maybe one could make an argument that Nady should start at 3B over Randa or in LF over Klesko against righties. One would have to overcome Bochy’s belief that X can’t currently hack it defensively at 3rd, or Bochy’s predisposition towards playing big money veterans, or both.