first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (11-6, 2.97 ERA) vs Javier Vazquez (10-13, 4.59 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
Monday Recap
Frustrating loss in the opener Monday night. Shoddy defense and the home run ball put the Padres in an early hole. But in the ninth, the Friars did manage to get the tying run to the plate.
Brian Giles, who didn’t start due to a bruised right knee, battled Arizona “closer” Jose Valverde and darned near hit a two-run jack onto the porch in right field. But the ball fell just shy, and so did the hometown team’s hopes.
The Dodgers also won, so both LA and the Snakes are now 4 1/2 games behind San Diego in the NL West. The Diamondbacks need to win 20 of their next 29 games to finish the season at .500. The Padres need to go 17-15 the rest of the way. At this point, I’m not counting on anyone winning more than 80 games in the division.
Tuesday Matchup
Turning the page, Tuesday night should be a fun one to watch. Vazquez isn’t the dominant pitcher he was in Montreal from 2001 to 2003, but when he’s on, he can still be very tough. As for Peavy, he apparently sliced his non-pitching hand with an aluminum can while taking out the garbage Monday but is good to go.
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams vs current Diamondbacks | 189 | .228 | .275 | .418 |
| Vazquez vs current Padres | 176 | .239 | .348 | .352 |
Luis Gonzalez (.414/.485/.862 in 29 AB) and Alex Cintron (.294/.400/.588 in 17 AB) have hit Peavy well over the years. For the Pads, Robert Fick (.273/.333/.727 in 22 AB) is one of the few who has had any success against Vazquez. This might be a good time to get Fick a spot start in left and give Ryan Klesko (.088/.111/.206 in 34 AB) the evening off, even though the latter is swinging a hot bat.
Roster Moves
Looks like shortstop Khalil Greene, who broke his left big toe August 14, is good to go and will be in tonight’s lineup. The Pads have missed his bat and glove at short over the past couple weeks. Okay, that’s a tremendous understatement. Here’s hoping he can stay healthy the rest of the way.
In other moves, outfielder Ben Johnson has been recalled (and started Monday night in right field, batting fifth), taking the place of right-hander Pedro Astacio, who landed on the DL due to a strained right quad. Among other things, this move allows the Padres to put both Johnson and Astacio on the playoff roster, assuming, of course, the Friars manage to win some games down the stretch and actually make the playoffs.
That’s all for now. I’ll be out at the park for this one, so you’re on your own. We need a win. Anyone know voodoo?
Way to hang in there, Geoff. Good stuff today as usual even with a terrible game last night.
Me, I have trouble thinking about this hapless team without going into a cranky rage.
My dog can’t wait for the season to be over.
But as you say, turn the page, turn the page.
Geoff, this would be a good time to give Nady a night off and give Fick a start at first. Vasquez is a right handed power pitcher with a good slider, the type of guy Nady hasn’t been able to handle next year. It would also be good for Nady to sit and be held accountable for his poor play not only of yesterday but for pretty much the whole month, and also get his head on straight.
If you want to sit Klesko, who also made a poor play on Stinnett’s ball last night, use Johnson in left. I wouldn’t sit Klesko because he is actually producing now.
PM: Thanks, man, it ain’t always easy but I try. As irritating as this season has been at times, I’ll take it over 1999-2003 any day of the week.
TF: I wouldn’t have a problem with Fick over Nady at first, although I’m not sure Nady needs to get his head on straight. Actually, against a tough right-handeer, I wouldn’t mind seeing both Fick *and* Sweeney in the lineup.
As for the ball Stinnett hit, I thought Klesko made a pretty nice effort on it.
Geoff, Nady’s defense at first has been generally fundamentally poor and his approach at the plate, including the failure to shorten up with two strikes, is awful. He hasn’t been making solid contact on anything but hanging offspeed pitches and a few belt high cripple fastballs. It is showing in his offensive and defensive numbers.
Klesko’s poor play was mental – he didn’t pay attention to the umpire’s ruling and he gave up on the play. If he hadn’t given up and instead looked for the ball right away and threw it in immediately, Stinnett might have even got to third base. That said, the umpire did make the wrong call, so Klesko gets a partial pass.
OT: from last night’s Giants game … Cain’s debut …
At 20 years, 332 days, Cain became the youngest Giants pitcher to make his first big league start since Mark Grant on April 27, 1984, at Cincinnati (20 years, 185 days).
… ah, youth! … but the KING of the youth right now is Felix Hernandez … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7487/ … now HE is the real deal!
Your description of Nady still sounds a lot like my description of Nevin.
BTW, the Pads reportedly almost dealt Nady and Lawrence to Cleveland for Coco Crisp and Kevin Millwood before the deadline. I saw it in print somewhere but can’t find it now. They also mentioned it last night on radio or TV, can’t remember which.
I don’t know about you, but I sure don’t feel like the Padres’ chances of being in the playoffs are 89% …
BP’s STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 NL Playoff Contenders
Team, Average Wins, Postseason Odds
St. Louis Cardinals, 100.2, 99.99%
Atlanta Braves, 91.6, 92.45%
San Diego Padres, 82.2, 88.87%
New York Mets, 85.7, 31.93%
Philadelphia Phillies, 85.3, 28.73%
… all this talk of “if the Padres play .500 ball from here on out” … well, they haven’t been able to play .500 ball up to this point, why / how can we assume they’ll play .500 the rest of the way … let alone finish @ .500 … let alone finish with 82 W’s … I can see this team going 10-20 from here on out … in which case, the D’backs/Dogs only need to go 15-15 … I’m just bracing myself … that seems like more than an 11% chance of happening …
Man, Jake is BANGED UP! Can he possibly be tough enough to meet our hopes and expectations for tonight? C’mon Jake!
There are some similarities between Nevin and Nady, power hitters with big splits and both poor infield defenders, but right now Nady is a poor man’s Nevin, as in poorer OPS against righties (.766 vs. .690 career). Nevin had better plate discipline; Nady has more power. Nevin did a better job driving the ball to right center; Nady has more pull power. Nady also can be a competent corner OF; Nevin could not.
The proposed trade was in the U/T. No doubt the Indians rejected it as not giving them enough.
“… all this talk of “if the Padres play .500 ball from here on out” … well, they haven’t been able to play .500 ball up to this point, why / how can we assume they’ll play .500 the rest of the way … let alone finish @ .500″
Why not? They are 13-12 in August. Already got Eaton back, getting Greene back, maybe Hernandez too. Giles is hitting, Loretta and Klesko have started to hit. Have some faith.
On benching X:
He’s hitting .294/.368/.471 over the last five games and went 1 for 3 with a walk last night.
That line would be more impressive if his 4 starts in that period weren’t against Jeff Francis (.311/.374/.495), Ezequiel Astacio (.306/.351/.616), Sunny Kim (.302/.338/.434) and Russ Ortiz (.316/.391/.551). I’d be hesitant to draw any conclusions from such limited date, other than maybe that X is continuing to underperform.
Good to see X have some success, ephemeral as it may be. As long as Bochy refuses to bench him for the team’s better hitters, let us hope X can actually get the job done against quality pitchers, and start to come through for the team in the clutch.
Ephemeral? I am curious to know why you expect Nady to fail over the longer haul. He’s not a superstar and he obviously has work to do, but he’s reasonably productive, especially given how cheap he is. Perhaps more importantly, he is the *type* of young talent that the Padres should be making more of an effort to cultivate.
I have a hard time accepting that Nady could be holding back a 35-year-old with a career 767 OPS or a 31-year-old with a career 756 OPS. I’m just not seeing a whole lot of options here.
From FSN:
Overrated:
10. Ryan Klesko, LF, Padres
Bad defense? Yep. Bad defense no matter where you stick him? Yep. Hasn’t hit for power since 2001? Yep.
Klesko still has good plate discipline, but he does little else to help his team. He was once an excellent player, but his time has passed.
Underrated:
1. Brian Giles, OF, Padres
In one offensive category, it’s OK to compare Brian Giles to Barry Bonds. (Rich Pilling/MLB Photos via / Getty Images)
How underappreciated is Brian Giles? His career OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of .956 is in the top 20 all-time for players with at least 5,000 career plate appearances. Why is he so underappreciated? For years he toiled in Pittsburgh on baseball’s rural route, and now he is playing half his games in Petco Park, a brutal environment for hitters.
Giles has the best plate discipline in baseball this side of a healthy Barry Bonds, and his substantial power is masked by Petco. For instance, this season, he’s hitting .327 AVG/.456 OBP/.562 on the road. If Giles had been given a regular job in the majors when he deserved one — instead of at age 28 — he’d be cobbling together a Hall of Fame career.
TF – 13-12 in Aug? Well slap my face! Thanks, I needed that! ONWARD WE GO!
He would be cobbling together a Hall of Fame career? They don’t think he is? Sheesh.
Geoff, I don’t expect Nady to fail in the long haul – I have no idea. I do expect him to fail in the short run against most right handed pitchers because of past results and, more important, his long swing and poor plate discipline/approach, which he has not improved to this point. If he can improve those things in the short run, great; if not, I am much more comfortable with Sweeney or Fick in there against righties, based on career and this year’s performance.
I do agree that Nady is relatively productive for his price and age, but not for the positions he plays.
Unfortunately, Nady is no longer young and is entering his prime years. He also will be arbitration eligible next year, and, I believe, a free agent in 2007, because he signed a major league contract out of Cal. He won’t be cheap for long, if he produces as we all hope he does.
I expect that Giles could have amassed better numbers had he played everyday from age 21/22 but he didnt and apparently wasnt ready to play everyday at that age. How many of us saw him play at that age and are qualified to judge?
Cleveland wasnt hurting for outfielder/dh candidates:
Jim Thome(25), Manny Ramariz(24), Kenny Lofton(29), Albert Belle(29), Jeromy Burnitz(27), Julio Franco(37), Jeff Kent(28), Eddie Murray(40),
Brian Giles was fighting for playing time with some pretty spectacular players. Actually, Cleveland had a heckva lot of players for 4 positions (3 outfield plus dh) He did get into 130 games next season at 26, I would consider that a regular job.
He also played the majority of his games in some pretty good hitters parks. Jacobs field(325,370,405,375,325 and only an 8 ft fence) and 3 rivers(335,375,400,375,335 10 ft fence) in addition to the other small parks in the american league central and national league central.
he just hasnt put up hof numbers, in my opinion.
Average Left Field Hall of Fame Stats:
Career WARP3: 103.8
Peak WARP3: 42.8
JAWS: 73.3
BRAR: 694
BRAA: 445
FRAA: -8
Gillys Career Stats:
Career WARP3: 73.0
Peak WARP3: 48.2
JAWS: 60.6
BRAR: 518
BRAA: 377
FRAA: 15
He’s 33, in the middle of a year that should raise his Career WARP3 into the 80′s with as many as 7 years left on his career. Plus, his five year peak value is already above average for the Hall.
Also, he has a career line unadjusted for park factors or anything else for that matter of .299/.413/.544.
As far as numbers that have been adjusted for park factors, difficulty, etc.: he has a career EQA of .322. Useless fact: that’s only .001 lower than Ty Cobb’s.
I agree that Giles is an above average major leaguer but I dont agree that he is an above average HOF’er.
He was 34 in Jan..stop making stuff up..
He has NEVER LED either league in ANY significant offensive category.
he has been an all star twice, he finished 13th in the mvp voting, he finished 28th in batting average, he finished 2 in obp, he finished 2 in slg, he finished 2 in ops(all in 2002), he finished 8th in games, 10th in runs, 9th in total bases, 7th in triples, 6th in homers, 5th in rbi, 2 in walks(twice), 2nd in adjusted ops, 3rd in runs created, 2nd in extra base hits, 3rd in times on base, 5th in sac flies, 3rd in intentional walks and 7th in power/speed..
HOF Standards have him at 34.5 and average hof at 50..
I am not saying that he couldnt get there, but he is a long way away right now and I believe that the best is behind him. even if he could duplicate the past ten years in the next ten years(which I dont think he can) he would still fall short of 3000 hits(2458) and 500 homers(462)
TF: Thanks for the clarification on Nady. I think one of the things with this discussion is that so many of us are anxious to see what he can do that we may oversell his abilities. I honestly see him as a suitable replacement for Nevin, nothing more.
As for the bit about his being arb-eligible next year, remember that his agent is Scott Boras. Whoever was talking on the radio (Philly Billy?) about the failed deal with Cleveland mentioned that as a possible reason the trade didn’t happen.
Good discussions today, folks. Keep it up through the game. I’ll look forward to reading the comments when I get home!
On Giles: Does anyone else read his comments such as (paraphrasing) “When I hit the ball that was caught on the warning track last night I knew it wasn’t going out because the ball doesn’t carry here at night” and honestly think he’s going to re-sign in San Diego? And that was not an isolated remark from him. The park frustrates him greatly. Without him, ’06 could be mighty grim.
yes, and it really gripes my butt to hear those kinds of comments, regardless of who they are coming from. I didnt hear arizona complaining as they hit 4 dingers…did u?
Through his peak, Giles played at a clear HOF level, and better than MANY HOFers. His rate stats will certainly be HOF-worthy, but he will not have been a regular for enough years to amass the counting stats necessary to sway voters.
And I will agree with them. Giles is not a HOFer, as Tony Oliva isn’t, Dale Murphy isn’t, and Dwight Evans isn’t. Wonderful players,all. The slightest change in luck for any of them might have resulted in a first-ballot HOF career.
And Richard, I’ve been a stathead since before you were born, and I still don’t know what half the stats you use represent.(Which is not to discount their validity. It’s just unlikely that any HOF voters will be using those metrics.)
Well, here we go again, glutons for punishment and embarassment. Although Peavy is good, we have to score at least one run to win the game.
I had a thought while on my 6 mile run this afternoon, speaking of gluton for punishment. What place would the Badres be in with their current record at this point last year?
Where could I look that up?
They would have been 4th, just ahead of the dbacks.
new subject: Paul McAnulty was held out of the Beavers starting lineup for the second straight night. He is either injured or in San Diego waiting to be added to the playoff roster just before the deadline.
I take that back, we would have been in 3rd.
one of the places to look it up(there are a few) is here:
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/standings/archive/2004
dang, glaus must be cussin at the way the ball dies in Petco…
3-run homer for Giles. How does the park play now? The same for both teams?
Giles not complaining tonight I bet.
All kidding aside, how big was that blast? It was HUGE!!
now everyone on that bench has their heads up and looking like they might actually win one..
Dodgers lose 6-3.
Greene: 6-4-3
This time last year, the Padres where 71-60, that is 11 games above 500, yet we finished third in the NL West. We finished 87-75. The Dodgers finished 93-87 to take the NL West.
11 games above 500 at this point in the season would be just good enough for the NL wildcard.
I see Giles knee is better. Three run homers, can’t get enough of them.
The talk of the Padres record and the NL Worst is old. A team’s goal is to win the division or make the playoffs — not win a certain amount of games.
Here is link for Padre record in 04:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/2004_sched.shtm
Wow, what a truely freaky year that the entire NL Worst would be playing so lousy. And the Padres are a worse team then last year. And the fact that the west is down has padded our record. Crazy.
The entire division has had serious injury issues, staring with Bonds and Gagne. The Padres have had all kinds of injuries, or else they would be on a 90-win pace.
Gee, Kevin I don’t normally dig for stats on IGD and when I do, you crush me as irrelavent and relagate me to yesterday’s news.
Guess I messed that set of posts.
good point Kev, the NL West has been decimated by injuries. Lately they have all started to play better ball as they get healthy.
Just because the voters are ignorant fools doesn’t mean that Giles isn’t well on his way to a hall of fame caliber career.
Sorry that I’m crushing tonight, but every story in the country contains the words “NL Worst” — even the ones on the hurricane. It’s stupid, easy journalism.
And a lot of posters on this site have said they are ashamed to lead the division while being under .500. That’s insane. The Padres have done a hell of a job with their injuries this year.
Also, Oliva, Murphy and Evans were no where near the player Giles is.
How can anyone be upset by being in first place? The entire point of the regular season is to make the post season. Does a team that wins 120 regular season games have to win fewer playoff games to win the series?
Also, I take back the Murphy comment. He’s on par with Giles if you account for the defense. Murphy’s HOF caliber, though.
this makes three games in a row with a home run.
season high?
Nice job by Linebrink.
Linebrink should have come back out for the 8th. But Bochy has to use his stupid script.
it worked and now, lets get some insurance
That’s a grand slam in a normal park.
Hoffman’s in. Take it away, Kevin.
thats all folks….
nice game..very pleasing to see the Padres display some offense.