IGD: Padres @ Pirates (3 Aug 2005)
Wed, Aug 3, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 4:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Chan Ho Park (8-5, 5.66 ERA) vs Dave Williams (8-8, 4.27 ERA)
previews: ESPN | Padres.com
Padres busted out in a big way Tuesday night. Despite some early baserunning gaffes, the Friars topped the Pirates, 11-3, in the opener at PNC Park. Jake Peavy mostly dominated, and the offense pounded out 15 hits.
The game also featured the return of Adam Eaton, who made his first big-league relief appearance after 123 starts. Eaton worked a scoreless ninth to preserve the victory. Word is he still cannot throw the good curve ball, so he’ll be working out of the bullpen for the foreseeable future.
Recently acquired Chan Ho Park makes his Padres debut Wednesday night. With Eaton and Tim Stauffer out of the rotation, the Pads now feature a starting five of Peavy, Woody Williams, Brian Lawrence, Park, and Pedro Astacio. Doesn’t look real good, but how does it compare with the other NL West contenders?
| Pitcher | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | |||||||||
| Penny | 75 | 200 | 197 | 88 | 82 | 18 | 55 | 140 | 3.69 |
| Perez | 75 | 200 | 194 | 94 | 88 | 27 | 48 | 139 | 3.98 |
| Lowe | 89 | 200 | 226 | 126 | 104 | 20 | 65 | 117 | 4.67 |
| Weaver | 80 | 200 | 221 | 112 | 106 | 22 | 56 | 130 | 4.77 |
| Houlton | 9 | 200 | 242 | 138 | 127 | 23 | 73 | 141 | 5.70 |
| Total | 328 | 200 | 211 | 107 | 97 | 22 | 57 | 131 | 4.35 |
| Padres | |||||||||
| Peavy | 79 | 200 | 172 | 79 | 73 | 24 | 67 | 193 | 3.27 |
| Williams | 81 | 200 | 205 | 98 | 94 | 22 | 55 | 135 | 4.22 |
| Lawrence | 88 | 200 | 210 | 101 | 95 | 24 | 52 | 113 | 4.26 |
| Park | 43 | 200 | 229 | 135 | 129 | 30 | 95 | 135 | 5.81 |
| Astacio | 23 | 200 | 247 | 150 | 150 | 39 | 76 | 126 | 6.73 |
| Total | 314 | 200 | 204 | 102 | 97 | 25 | 64 | 143 | 4.35 |
| Diamondbacks | |||||||||
| Webb | 85 | 200 | 184 | 93 | 77 | 16 | 86 | 164 | 3.46 |
| Vazquez | 88 | 200 | 188 | 97 | 91 | 28 | 50 | 181 | 4.08 |
| Gosling | 8 | 200 | 227 | 99 | 91 | 22 | 102 | 95 | 4.12 |
| Halsey | 27 | 200 | 236 | 122 | 97 | 20 | 52 | 119 | 4.35 |
| Vargas | 46 | 200 | 205 | 118 | 109 | 37 | 85 | 133 | 4.90 |
| Total | 254 | 200 | 196 | 102 | 90 | 25 | 70 | 158 | 4.05 |
| Games started are the raw total; all other numbers are prorated to 200 innings. Stats courtesy of David Pinto’s Day by Day Database. | |||||||||
Surprisingly, Arizona is in the best shape in terms of recent performance. They’re also the most volatile, with everyone beyond Brandon Webb and Javier Vazquez relatively unknown. You have a pretty good idea of what those two will do; not so much with the remainder. Of course, the return of Shawn Estes and Russ Ortiz could change things. I just went with the guys that are in the rotation right now.
I’m fascinated to see what Park has left in the tank. Fascinated, as in watching a hummingbird in flight, not a van on fire.
I hope.
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August 3, 2005 at 8:10 am
Go, go, Chan Ho!
August 3, 2005 at 11:26 am
I think it was Miguel Olivo that was asked what he thought about PetCo Park and he was saying what a good guy he was. Chan Ho / PetCo… ha
August 3, 2005 at 2:58 pm
Ha…ha….
Yeay, Nady in the lineup today vs. lefty.
Gotta stop platooning X.
Go Padres!
August 3, 2005 at 3:23 pm
X does have a pretty significant L/R split. I still think he should play every day, but I’d have a hard time not playing Sweeney against right-handed pitching. He has absolutely dominated against them this year.
August 3, 2005 at 3:56 pm
cover your eyes when you watch this one…
still, I am praying for a win..if we can hit, Park will be good enough. If we dont hit, Cy Young wouldnt be good enough.
August 3, 2005 at 4:11 pm
Klesko out of the lineup due to back problems…
August 3, 2005 at 4:13 pm
That’s the way to score, 1 run on no hits.
August 3, 2005 at 4:17 pm
Yahoo box score shows it as an “earned run” … that’s the least-earned run i’ve seen in a while
August 3, 2005 at 4:19 pm
I don’t think it is an earned run. Not sure if that was ruled a passed ball or wild pitch.
August 3, 2005 at 4:19 pm
Welcome to the Padres, Chan Ho …
- C. Duffy singled to left
… ug.
August 3, 2005 at 4:19 pm
Double ug …
- F. Sanchez walked, C. Duffy to second
August 3, 2005 at 4:20 pm
Yahoo box score says Wild Pitch …
August 3, 2005 at 4:25 pm
The pitch was very high, but the guy got a glove on it before it escaped.
August 3, 2005 at 4:25 pm
Triple ug …
- J. Gerut singled to right, C. Duffy scored, F. Sanchez to second, F. Sanchez scored, J. Gerut to second on third baseman J. Randa’s fielding error
August 3, 2005 at 4:27 pm
“the guy” = Olivo?
August 3, 2005 at 4:27 pm
CHP must think he’s still in Texas, where he had an offense to save his bacon.
August 3, 2005 at 4:28 pm
wonderful start, Padres get no hits and Pirates get 3..
we are in trouble…
August 3, 2005 at 4:28 pm
No, the guy is the Pirates catcher.
August 3, 2005 at 4:31 pm
no hit again…
August 3, 2005 at 4:34 pm
park doesnt have enough stuff to throw a wild pitch. williams threw one past doumit.. that the guy you are talking about?
August 3, 2005 at 4:35 pm
Right, him, that’s what I just said.
August 3, 2005 at 4:36 pm
chan ho looking good against the guys with .200 or less batting averages…lol
August 3, 2005 at 4:37 pm
dang, one,two,three inning…
im impressed
August 3, 2005 at 4:39 pm
Chan Ho is settling down …
- J. Wilson flied out to right
- D. Williams lined out to shortstop
- C. Duffy lined out to shortstop
… let’s hope it’s just Stauffer-itis
After 2 full …
Pitches-strikes - C Park 39-21; D Williams 31-18.
Ground balls-fly balls - C Park 2-4; D Williams 3-3.
Batters faced - C Park 10; D Williams 7.
… and, yes, now the Yahoo box is showing the Padres’ run as unearned …
August 3, 2005 at 4:40 pm
hey hey hey welcome to the national league olivo..
August 3, 2005 at 4:40 pm
need some DONGs - been way too long!
August 3, 2005 at 4:42 pm
Well, I don’t care how Park pitches, we gotta start hitting. Yesterday was a good start, now lets get at this guy or get him outta the game by working the pitch count.
August 3, 2005 at 4:44 pm
Where’s Lance when you need him? Olivohomers on a line drive to left.
August 3, 2005 at 4:45 pm
Chan Ho has to be enjoying the .250 BABIP so far today.
August 3, 2005 at 4:46 pm
I just noticed that only one of PetCo’s runs was earned.
August 3, 2005 at 4:49 pm
we are making this too easy for them..
August 3, 2005 at 4:52 pm
Richard,
Compare please: total offensive contribution to 2005 Padres (by VORP?) - Olivo in 1 PA vs that “slugger” Nevin in 300+ PAs.
August 3, 2005 at 4:55 pm
I don’t have a VORP spreadsheet.
That being said, I’m pretty sure Nevin’s VORP was a positive number and I doubt the single home run pushes Olivo past him.
August 3, 2005 at 4:57 pm
is it just me or does Randa seem to be less that effective defensively at eb? Maybe Burroughs was a lot better than we gave him credit for and we just got spoiled. Randa has a good defensive rep.
btw, randa’s offense hasnt been that great either.
August 3, 2005 at 4:59 pm
You’re right, of course, but with Nevin’s grand total of 4.1 VORP in that many PAs, well, a new guy doesn’t need to do a whole lot to surpass that contribution.
August 3, 2005 at 4:59 pm
Randa is an above average third baseman defensively. Sea was well above average defensively. The fact that Randa has been essentially replacement level offensively just makes him appear worse in the field.
August 3, 2005 at 5:00 pm
You’re right, dprat. It won’t take much.
PetCo just walked a guy after having him in the hole 1-2.
August 3, 2005 at 5:02 pm
too soon to yank him?
August 3, 2005 at 5:02 pm
PetCo has been not only bad, but unlucky tonight. 5 runs allowed over 3 innings. His dERA would suggest he should have only given up 3.25 so far.
August 3, 2005 at 5:04 pm
thru 3 full …
Pitches-strikes - C Park 66-39; D Williams 51-33.
Ground balls-fly balls - C Park 5-4; D Williams 3-5.
Batters faced - C Park 17; D Williams 12.
… ug.
August 3, 2005 at 5:04 pm
Dave Williams on the other hand has been relatively lucky. He has given up only two runs over three while his dERA suggests he should have given up 2.73 over that same period.
August 3, 2005 at 5:05 pm
giles still no hits in pittsburg..surprising. he hit real well here in the past
August 3, 2005 at 5:05 pm
Didn’t he have three walks yesterday, hank?
August 3, 2005 at 5:06 pm
Good news for us “old men” …
- J. Franco homered to deep right center, J. Francoeur scored
August 3, 2005 at 5:07 pm
Dave Williams’s dERA (adjusted for 3.7 rather than 9 IP), is at 3.46.
August 3, 2005 at 5:09 pm
Padres are letting Williams off the hook despite his 4.50 BB/9 and 2.25 K/9 rates.
August 3, 2005 at 5:10 pm
Padres have a .077 BABIP tonight. That’s crap.
August 3, 2005 at 5:12 pm
dont score too many runs without a hit. Giles is supposed to be our best hitter. I will grant you he is our best WALKer..
HITS drive in runs..
August 3, 2005 at 5:14 pm
well there you go, another inning without allowing a run…amazing..
August 3, 2005 at 5:14 pm
Through 4 IP, Chan Ho’s…
dERA: 8.28
ERA: 6.75
RA: 11.25
August 3, 2005 at 5:14 pm
Giles is the team’s best player.
August 3, 2005 at 5:15 pm
we are just beating this guy to death..
a homer and a bunt single and nothing else..
WOW
August 3, 2005 at 5:15 pm
He’s also the most productive outfielder in Major League Baseball.
August 3, 2005 at 5:16 pm
That applies to this year only, just to be clear.
August 3, 2005 at 5:16 pm
u go Olivo…speed demon…
August 3, 2005 at 5:18 pm
That was nice.
August 3, 2005 at 5:19 pm
most productive? well it depends on WHAT stats you are using to make that determination..
does he have the most runs scored?
does he have the most rbi?
does he have to most hits?
does he have the most homers?
depends on what stat u use to rank them..and it doesnt mean that I have to accept your method of measuring them.
August 3, 2005 at 5:19 pm
Padres need to cash in on the poor defense of the Pirates. The Pirates managed to cash in on ours.
Home run as I type!
August 3, 2005 at 5:20 pm
whoa…eric young…thats a valuable player..
August 3, 2005 at 5:20 pm
Who in their right mind would use runs, rbi’s, or hits to determine productivity?
August 3, 2005 at 5:21 pm
I was referring to Clay Davenport’s Wins Above Replacement Player metric.
August 3, 2005 at 5:22 pm
I realize that we all used those stats in the past, but with the information that’s now available, who would still turn to them to determine anything?
August 3, 2005 at 5:25 pm
Through 5 IP, Dave Williams’s…
dERA: 9.27
ERA: 5.40
RA: 9.00
Hard to believe a guy who has given up a run an inning has been lucky.
August 3, 2005 at 5:26 pm
well just call me dinosaur hank, cause i think warp is a load of crap..
August 3, 2005 at 5:26 pm
Why’s that hank? If you have a reason for that, I’d be interested.
August 3, 2005 at 5:28 pm
Dogs now down 2-1 … to the Nats …
August 3, 2005 at 5:30 pm
This just in from Texas …
- P. Nevin doubled to deep left, M. Teixeira scored
August 3, 2005 at 5:31 pm
Good to hear.
August 3, 2005 at 5:32 pm
A .400 BABIP for Park. He can’t buy an out on a batted ball.
August 3, 2005 at 5:35 pm
Assuming Hensley keeps that last runner from coming around, Park’s…
dERA: 7.64
ERA: 10.47
RA: 14.65
Basically, he gave up about twice as many runs as you could reasonably expect given how he pitched.
August 3, 2005 at 5:36 pm
The defense’s .600 Def_Eff is simply pathetic.
August 3, 2005 at 5:38 pm
The Def_Eff is back up to .682 just like that.
August 3, 2005 at 5:41 pm
you cant convince me that Giles is more productive than Andruw Jones, Vlad, Beltran, Ramariz, Lee, Dunn, Griffey,
giles is good, but most productive? hardly
August 3, 2005 at 5:42 pm
Make the case for that, hank.
August 3, 2005 at 5:46 pm
Giles has a .329 EqA.
Jones: .302
Vlad: .310
Beltran: .259
Ramirez: .308
Lee: .289
Dunn: .319
Griffey: .301
August 3, 2005 at 5:46 pm
khalil tied it up…wtg Padres, now we have a chance..
Park is on the bench..
August 3, 2005 at 5:49 pm
Olivo can run, huh?
August 3, 2005 at 5:59 pm
hank-those players you named do appear more productive by looking at runs, rbi, hits, and homers. Why are you so resistant of newer superior stats?
August 3, 2005 at 5:59 pm
Hensley mowin’ ‘em down!
- C. Duffy grounded out to shortstop
- F. Sanchez struck out looking
- R. Mackowiak grounded out to first
August 3, 2005 at 6:05 pm
Speaking just for myself (ie. not hank), here’s my thoughts on Giles & new stats & Vlad …
Vlad’s core stats are OBP = .369 ; SLG = .560 ; OPS = .928 …
Giles’ core stats are OBP = .425 ; SLG = .487 ; OPS = .912
… I still value SLG pretty high … when Vlad steps to the plate, I have higher expectations for MAJOR good things than when Giles steps to the plate …
Another perspective … I’d trade Giles for Vlad IN A HEARTBEAT … why? I think he’s a better all-around player and a better hitter.
August 3, 2005 at 6:05 pm
ok, lets take Jones for example:
one of the best, if not the best, defensive outfielders in baseball. Plays the most important defensive outfield position..centerfield.
offensively…32 homers, 80 rbi, 62 runs scored.
as compared to giles:
above average right fielder below average centerfielder defensively. best position left field(which is where he played in Pittsburg)
offensively…10 homers, 56rbi, 63 runs scored.
of course this is just surface numbers but as I am paying attention to the game, i will form a more in depth comparison for you later.
August 3, 2005 at 6:09 pm
Two questions:
1. Was Park as bad as his line indicates?
2. What got into Olivo’s bat?
August 3, 2005 at 6:20 pm
I think Park is used to getting pounded and after the error at 3b let in a couple of runs, he just gave up. He needs to get mentally right as well as physically. His once 92-94 fastball was topping out about 89(according to radio)
August 3, 2005 at 6:22 pm
his fastball is 90-91 on TV, with more sink than his Dodger days.
August 3, 2005 at 6:24 pm
good place for roberts to pinch hit
August 3, 2005 at 6:25 pm
thanks for that update eric..radio misses a lot sometimes..
August 3, 2005 at 6:27 pm
well they never listen to me, I would have saved sweeney for a spot where he could win the game.
he comes thru with a single, so it works but we need someone to drive him in..
roberts will run for him..
August 3, 2005 at 6:32 pm
oh well, wasted both sweeney and roberts to no avail..danm(sp)
August 3, 2005 at 6:48 pm
well there it goes, so much for a winning streak. we have managed to snach defeat from the jaws of victory.
I am tired of hearing about how great our bullpen is. Linebrink and Aki been getting lit up lately.
August 3, 2005 at 6:49 pm
snatch…
August 3, 2005 at 7:06 pm
For the dingers I missed:
DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!
And for those who think the Padres are a good beseball team:
WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!
Richard, I’ve been a Bill James devotee since before you were born, so I am no stranger to the sabermetric revolution. Still, I think most of the metrics you value so highly undervalue home runs. I am certain that Andruw Jones has brought more to the table than Giles, due to his HR total at 3X Giles.
I agree with you that Giles is a bit unsung, with even formerly ardent supporters concluding that he’s no longer a dominant hitter w/o 35+ dingers. They are mistaken.
August 3, 2005 at 7:32 pm
You also have to take into account park factors, Lance.
August 3, 2005 at 7:41 pm
No park on earth turns 9 dingers into 32.
August 3, 2005 at 8:04 pm
It’s not just about home runs, Lance.
From unadjusted rate stats:
Giles has .064 points of OBP on Jones.
Jones has .101 points of SLG on Giles.
Advantage: Giles.
Gilly’s DT line: .303/.442/.523
Jones’s DT line: .268/.355/.590
Again, advantage: Giles.
Looking at counting stats:
Jones
AB: 391
2B: 20
3B: 3
HR: 32
XBH: 55
BB: 45
Giles
AB: 357
2B: 29
3B: 6
HR: 10
XBH: 45
BB: 87
Ten more extra base hits & 42 fewer walks for Jones.
Defense:
Jones has a 105 Rate2 in Center Field.
Giles has a 102 Rate2 in Right Field.
Does three runs per 100 games played make up for Gilly’s superior offense? I don’t think it does.
August 3, 2005 at 8:04 pm
just got back from the game. (I go to skool in Pgh.) Park looked terrible. His stuff had no bite and judging by the speed gun, he barely touched 90. Most of his pitches looked in the 85-87 range. Otsuka didn’t look sharp either. His stuff sat in the 85-90 range. His hestitation step looked less pronounced this game.
Jason Bay hit a monster shot. He’s a player. Khalil Greene looked pretty sharp in the field and at the plate, and you’d never guess Olivo was hitting .151 for Seattle.
August 3, 2005 at 8:25 pm
Giles’ offense is likely NOT superior. The value of a HR, especially in a mediocre offense, cannot be overstated. A player who has just homered CANNOT BE LEFT ON BASE. You underestimate the impact of homers on actual runs scored. A home run is not a potential component of a run, IT IS A RUN, and is not dependant upon the contributions of others.
And the difference between Giles’ and Jones’ defensive contributions are so far beyond what your carefully-chosen-statistic illustrates, it’s comical.
The context of their different position, ballpark, and pitching staffs played behind is simply not adequately evaluated by ANY defensive metric, no matter how much you may have fallen in love with said metric. Occcasionally, you have to trust your eyes. This is one of those times.
If you throw stats out there in hope that they will intimidate those who are less astute than you, eventually those stats turn to alphabet soup.
That being said, I still believe that, eventually, we’ll be able to fully evaluate players based upon their individual numbers. It is foolhardy, however, to think that the metrics available to us now come close to telling the whole story. Until we can add the sum of our favorite stats on a team to unfailingly predict the won-loss total of that team, we are clearly missing SOMETHING.
End of rant. Don’t kick me off the blog, please, Richard.
August 3, 2005 at 8:34 pm
well lance, you have made my rant obsolete. tks
August 3, 2005 at 9:05 pm
http://sdpf.blogspot.com/2005/.....-2005.html