first pitch: 4:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Chan Ho Park (8-5, 5.66 ERA) vs Dave Williams (8-8, 4.27 ERA)
previews: ESPN | Padres.com
Padres busted out in a big way Tuesday night. Despite some early baserunning gaffes, the Friars topped the Pirates, 11-3, in the opener at PNC Park. Jake Peavy mostly dominated, and the offense pounded out 15 hits.
The game also featured the return of Adam Eaton, who made his first big-league relief appearance after 123 starts. Eaton worked a scoreless ninth to preserve the victory. Word is he still cannot throw the good curve ball, so he’ll be working out of the bullpen for the foreseeable future.
Recently acquired Chan Ho Park makes his Padres debut Wednesday night. With Eaton and Tim Stauffer out of the rotation, the Pads now feature a starting five of Peavy, Woody Williams, Brian Lawrence, Park, and Pedro Astacio. Doesn’t look real good, but how does it compare with the other NL West contenders?
| Pitcher | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | |||||||||
| Penny | 75 | 200 | 197 | 88 | 82 | 18 | 55 | 140 | 3.69 |
| Perez | 75 | 200 | 194 | 94 | 88 | 27 | 48 | 139 | 3.98 |
| Lowe | 89 | 200 | 226 | 126 | 104 | 20 | 65 | 117 | 4.67 |
| Weaver | 80 | 200 | 221 | 112 | 106 | 22 | 56 | 130 | 4.77 |
| Houlton | 9 | 200 | 242 | 138 | 127 | 23 | 73 | 141 | 5.70 |
| Total | 328 | 200 | 211 | 107 | 97 | 22 | 57 | 131 | 4.35 |
| Padres | |||||||||
| Peavy | 79 | 200 | 172 | 79 | 73 | 24 | 67 | 193 | 3.27 |
| Williams | 81 | 200 | 205 | 98 | 94 | 22 | 55 | 135 | 4.22 |
| Lawrence | 88 | 200 | 210 | 101 | 95 | 24 | 52 | 113 | 4.26 |
| Park | 43 | 200 | 229 | 135 | 129 | 30 | 95 | 135 | 5.81 |
| Astacio | 23 | 200 | 247 | 150 | 150 | 39 | 76 | 126 | 6.73 |
| Total | 314 | 200 | 204 | 102 | 97 | 25 | 64 | 143 | 4.35 |
| Diamondbacks | |||||||||
| Webb | 85 | 200 | 184 | 93 | 77 | 16 | 86 | 164 | 3.46 |
| Vazquez | 88 | 200 | 188 | 97 | 91 | 28 | 50 | 181 | 4.08 |
| Gosling | 8 | 200 | 227 | 99 | 91 | 22 | 102 | 95 | 4.12 |
| Halsey | 27 | 200 | 236 | 122 | 97 | 20 | 52 | 119 | 4.35 |
| Vargas | 46 | 200 | 205 | 118 | 109 | 37 | 85 | 133 | 4.90 |
| Total | 254 | 200 | 196 | 102 | 90 | 25 | 70 | 158 | 4.05 |
| Games started are the raw total; all other numbers are prorated to 200 innings. Stats courtesy of David Pinto’s Day by Day Database. | |||||||||
Surprisingly, Arizona is in the best shape in terms of recent performance. They’re also the most volatile, with everyone beyond Brandon Webb and Javier Vazquez relatively unknown. You have a pretty good idea of what those two will do; not so much with the remainder. Of course, the return of Shawn Estes and Russ Ortiz could change things. I just went with the guys that are in the rotation right now.
I’m fascinated to see what Park has left in the tank. Fascinated, as in watching a hummingbird in flight, not a van on fire.
I hope.
Giles is the team’s best player.
we are just beating this guy to death..
a homer and a bunt single and nothing else..
WOW
He’s also the most productive outfielder in Major League Baseball.
That applies to this year only, just to be clear.
u go Olivo…speed demon…
That was nice.
most productive? well it depends on WHAT stats you are using to make that determination..
does he have the most runs scored?
does he have the most rbi?
does he have to most hits?
does he have the most homers?
depends on what stat u use to rank them..and it doesnt mean that I have to accept your method of measuring them.
Padres need to cash in on the poor defense of the Pirates. The Pirates managed to cash in on ours.
Home run as I type!
whoa…eric young…thats a valuable player..
Who in their right mind would use runs, rbi’s, or hits to determine productivity?
I was referring to Clay Davenport’s Wins Above Replacement Player metric.
I realize that we all used those stats in the past, but with the information that’s now available, who would still turn to them to determine anything?
Through 5 IP, Dave Williams’s…
dERA: 9.27
ERA: 5.40
RA: 9.00
Hard to believe a guy who has given up a run an inning has been lucky.
well just call me dinosaur hank, cause i think warp is a load of crap..
Why’s that hank? If you have a reason for that, I’d be interested.
Dogs now down 2-1 … to the Nats …
This just in from Texas …
- P. Nevin doubled to deep left, M. Teixeira scored
Good to hear.
A .400 BABIP for Park. He can’t buy an out on a batted ball.
Assuming Hensley keeps that last runner from coming around, Park’s…
dERA: 7.64
ERA: 10.47
RA: 14.65
Basically, he gave up about twice as many runs as you could reasonably expect given how he pitched.
The defense’s .600 Def_Eff is simply pathetic.
The Def_Eff is back up to .682 just like that.
you cant convince me that Giles is more productive than Andruw Jones, Vlad, Beltran, Ramariz, Lee, Dunn, Griffey,
giles is good, but most productive? hardly
Make the case for that, hank.
Giles has a .329 EqA.
Jones: .302
Vlad: .310
Beltran: .259
Ramirez: .308
Lee: .289
Dunn: .319
Griffey: .301
khalil tied it up…wtg Padres, now we have a chance..
Park is on the bench..
Olivo can run, huh?
hank-those players you named do appear more productive by looking at runs, rbi, hits, and homers. Why are you so resistant of newer superior stats?
Hensley mowin’ ‘em down!
- C. Duffy grounded out to shortstop
- F. Sanchez struck out looking
- R. Mackowiak grounded out to first
Speaking just for myself (ie. not hank), here’s my thoughts on Giles & new stats & Vlad …
Vlad’s core stats are OBP = .369 ; SLG = .560 ; OPS = .928 …
Giles’ core stats are OBP = .425 ; SLG = .487 ; OPS = .912
… I still value SLG pretty high … when Vlad steps to the plate, I have higher expectations for MAJOR good things than when Giles steps to the plate …
Another perspective … I’d trade Giles for Vlad IN A HEARTBEAT … why? I think he’s a better all-around player and a better hitter.
ok, lets take Jones for example:
one of the best, if not the best, defensive outfielders in baseball. Plays the most important defensive outfield position..centerfield.
offensively…32 homers, 80 rbi, 62 runs scored.
as compared to giles:
above average right fielder below average centerfielder defensively. best position left field(which is where he played in Pittsburg)
offensively…10 homers, 56rbi, 63 runs scored.
of course this is just surface numbers but as I am paying attention to the game, i will form a more in depth comparison for you later.
Two questions:
1. Was Park as bad as his line indicates?
2. What got into Olivo’s bat?
I think Park is used to getting pounded and after the error at 3b let in a couple of runs, he just gave up. He needs to get mentally right as well as physically. His once 92-94 fastball was topping out about 89(according to radio)
his fastball is 90-91 on TV, with more sink than his Dodger days.
good place for roberts to pinch hit
thanks for that update eric..radio misses a lot sometimes..
well they never listen to me, I would have saved sweeney for a spot where he could win the game.
he comes thru with a single, so it works but we need someone to drive him in..
roberts will run for him..
oh well, wasted both sweeney and roberts to no avail..danm(sp)
well there it goes, so much for a winning streak. we have managed to snach defeat from the jaws of victory.
I am tired of hearing about how great our bullpen is. Linebrink and Aki been getting lit up lately.
snatch…
For the dingers I missed:
DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!
And for those who think the Padres are a good beseball team:
WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!WRONG!
Richard, I’ve been a Bill James devotee since before you were born, so I am no stranger to the sabermetric revolution. Still, I think most of the metrics you value so highly undervalue home runs. I am certain that Andruw Jones has brought more to the table than Giles, due to his HR total at 3X Giles.
I agree with you that Giles is a bit unsung, with even formerly ardent supporters concluding that he’s no longer a dominant hitter w/o 35+ dingers. They are mistaken.
You also have to take into account park factors, Lance.
No park on earth turns 9 dingers into 32.
It’s not just about home runs, Lance.
From unadjusted rate stats:
Giles has .064 points of OBP on Jones.
Jones has .101 points of SLG on Giles.
Advantage: Giles.
Gilly’s DT line: .303/.442/.523
Jones’s DT line: .268/.355/.590
Again, advantage: Giles.
Looking at counting stats:
Jones
AB: 391
2B: 20
3B: 3
HR: 32
XBH: 55
BB: 45
Giles
AB: 357
2B: 29
3B: 6
HR: 10
XBH: 45
BB: 87
Ten more extra base hits & 42 fewer walks for Jones.
Defense:
Jones has a 105 Rate2 in Center Field.
Giles has a 102 Rate2 in Right Field.
Does three runs per 100 games played make up for Gilly’s superior offense? I don’t think it does.
just got back from the game. (I go to skool in Pgh.) Park looked terrible. His stuff had no bite and judging by the speed gun, he barely touched 90. Most of his pitches looked in the 85-87 range. Otsuka didn’t look sharp either. His stuff sat in the 85-90 range. His hestitation step looked less pronounced this game.
Jason Bay hit a monster shot. He’s a player. Khalil Greene looked pretty sharp in the field and at the plate, and you’d never guess Olivo was hitting .151 for Seattle.
Giles’ offense is likely NOT superior. The value of a HR, especially in a mediocre offense, cannot be overstated. A player who has just homered CANNOT BE LEFT ON BASE. You underestimate the impact of homers on actual runs scored. A home run is not a potential component of a run, IT IS A RUN, and is not dependant upon the contributions of others.
And the difference between Giles’ and Jones’ defensive contributions are so far beyond what your carefully-chosen-statistic illustrates, it’s comical.
The context of their different position, ballpark, and pitching staffs played behind is simply not adequately evaluated by ANY defensive metric, no matter how much you may have fallen in love with said metric. Occcasionally, you have to trust your eyes. This is one of those times.
If you throw stats out there in hope that they will intimidate those who are less astute than you, eventually those stats turn to alphabet soup.
That being said, I still believe that, eventually, we’ll be able to fully evaluate players based upon their individual numbers. It is foolhardy, however, to think that the metrics available to us now come close to telling the whole story. Until we can add the sum of our favorite stats on a team to unfailingly predict the won-loss total of that team, we are clearly missing SOMETHING.
End of rant. Don’t kick me off the blog, please, Richard.
well lance, you have made my rant obsolete. tks
http://sdpf.blogspot.com/2005/08/most-productive-outfielder-in-2005.html