first pitch: 4:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (6-8, 4.92 ERA) vs Dontrelle Willis (15-8, 2.79 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
I’m working on a research project, so we’ll go a little light on the analysis for the rest of this week. Obviously, the win against the Fish Tuesday night was huge. Quick observations from the game:
- Brian Lawrence didn’t have the good stuff going, but he battled. Dude always gives a solid effort.
- Wilson Valdez reminds me of Donaldo Mendez. I don’t know how Valdez has managed to hit .207 in the big leagues with that swing.
- Winning run scores on a Miguel Olivo triple to dead center. Big deal, right? Mark Loretta was charging home on the pitch; Olivo missed the squeeze sign. Hey, whatever works.
- Did Joe Randa forget how to hit when he came to the Padres? His OPS is well below that of Sean Burroughs and more in the neighborhood of Jesse Garcia. Not what anybody had in mind, I’m sure. Randa is a free agent at the end of the season, so whatever value he has to the Friars is derived from what he’s able to do over the final 44 games this year.
- Congrats to Trevor Hoffman for notching his 424th career save, tying John Franco for second all time.
As for Wednesday, it’s more of the same. Get into the bullpen. Easier said than done with Willis, who has completed six or more innings in all but four of his 24 starts this year. Aside from a brief rough patch in July (29 IP, 7.14 ERA), he’s been lights out all season.
For the Pads, Williams is coming off his best start in a very long time. His season numbers aren’t real great, and he’s been cuffed around a bit away from Petco Park (.303/.359/.545 in 165 AB). Also, 7 homers in 34 1/3 innings since the All-Star break is a little disconcerting.
Another mismatch on paper. We won’t write it off because, as Darrell May and Chan Ho Park have reminded us, anything can happen. But I like the Pads’ chances a lot better Thursday, when Jake Peavy takes on Josh Beckett. With a win in the opener, the Friars have given themselves a legitimate shot at taking the series. Coming off a sweep at the hands of the Phillies, what more could they want?
We are damn lucky that Olivo didnt get a change on the inner half. Mark Loretta would be in the dang hospital or worse.
Sure it worked out but we have to start, sometime, getting fundamentals done right. we are failing desperately mentally and physically.
You’re right, Hank, the team still needs to execute better. But it also helps to catch a break every once in a while. We needed that one.
I would like to see some of Randa’s AB’s drift over to Nady. .526 OPS doesn’t deserve everyday playing time. It would be worth a couple games of experimentation.
Garcia had an 1.092 OPS vs. LHP. Can’t say that for Randa.
I have started back updating the daily recaps again on “hanks rants”
I wonder if anyone is reading them anymore, It was down for so long that I think everyone forgot their bookmarks. Anyway, most of the sites that offer that information are selling subscriptions so I thought I would post what I can find for free. Any helpful tips would be appreciated as you appear to be much better informed on how to make these blogs work.
wysiwyg with Randa. He isnt going to be anything special but he will be steady. His career shows a low of .690ops to a high of .847ops..
ten or so homers and batting average around .280.
He is what I expected Sean Burroughs to become only with a higher batting average.
Physically, Mendez and Valdez are nothing alike. Valdez is about 5’10, weighs maybe 170. Mendez was a legit 6’2 and was solidly built.
Offensively however, I agree, they have a lot in common, which is unfortunate for the Pads right now. On the bright side, Valdez is much better defensively than Mendez.
Geoff – you think Valdez’ swing doesn’t even merit a .207 BA? Ouch …
hank – I’ve still got the bookmark … http://www.angelfire.com/sports/padresreport/hanksrants/ … here’s 2 tips: 1. move to a blog host that doesn’t have pop-ups (ex. http://www.blogger.com/home); 2. reply to comments … YOU were out there bloggin’ before bloggin’ was cool! I LOVE the “prospects notes / progress reports” … I’ll bet Geoff’ll give you a link off his page
… and I’ll bet PeterF will give you a link off his page (that’s where I go for my prospects-talk) …
Thanks, Jonathan. The comparison was primarily based on Valdez’ first at-bat as a Padre. He struck out on a swing that I haven’t seen since Aki Otsuka came to bat earlier this season.
Hank: What LynchMob said.
Might want to loose that back ground, Hank. Pokadots and baseball don’t to go together.
BTW, I strained my obleak muscle (actually have the flu), so no posting or IGD lately at Padretalk.
Not that anybody reads it. Its just mostly cute commentary and bitterness directed at the Pads. I’m not a stats guy although I appreciate them.
But like I’ve said, this year is an experiement. If I can keep it up for the entire year, next year I push.
I use blogspot and its good. The real blogging pros get their own domain name.
I’m into Liberal political blogs, DKos, TPM, Echanton, Kevin Drum. They are pros and really taking blogging to a high level.
Ducksnort is great too, well written with lots of good info.
Go Fathers
Was thinking about how Woody turned it on down the stretch for the Cards in ’01 after we traded him, and again had the hot finish for the Cards the next year. And thought, does Woody do that every year? Are we about to get his best pitching of the year just when we need it most?
Well, yes and no. Or more exactly, no and yes.
First, Woody’s career numbers:
per/9: 3.0 BB – 6.2 K – 1.2 HR
2.1 K/BB – 1.31 WHIP
Now, August only:
3.3 BB – 6.3 K – 1.1 HR – 1.9 K/BB & 1.45 WHIP
Not so great. Slight uptick in Ks & downtick in HRs offset by substantial increase in BBs.
But Sept/Oct is a different story:
2.9 BB – 6.6 K – 1.0 HR – 2.3 K/BB & 1.17 WHIP
There it is… easily his best month+ of the season. So if Woody can make it thru the remainder of August, maybe he’ll start smelling the playoffs.
dprat: Nice breakdown on Woody; let’s hope he picks it up again down the stretch.
Interesting article over at THT:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/youngsters-and-oldsters/
Uses Win Shares Above Baseline to determine best players by age. Peavy, Greene, Sweeney, and Hammond are among the top 5 in their age groups. Giles is #1 at 34 (although Bay is #1 at 26).
Also, note Miguel Cabrera and David Wright, two of the guys we looked at in the last podcast. They are playing at an unbelievably high level. (And the Braves that Jeff from Syntax of Things mentioned are looking pretty darned good so far.)
Interesting read. Good to know that at least we have 3 players in the team that are ranked quite high.
Of course, now we are down to 2 with Greene on the DL and Giles who hasn’t been hitting well at home this season.
So far, we are 1-3 in this stretch of playing plus-teams (Phillies, Marlins, Braves, Astros).
Let’s go Padres.
thanks for all the tips, I think I will try that “blogspot” hopefully I get this running again..one of the problems is that I will be going home for a month(arkansas) not sure if I can keep it up from there. I really miss keeping it up because it kept me better informed when I was keeping everything up.
hank – I’m pretty sure the internet has reached Arkansas … you have NO excuse!
Miguel Cabrera is special. Last year, at just 21, he put up phenomenal numbers, and the year before was just as extraordinary. He’s also huge! I looked at the Marlins site, which lists him at 6’2″, 210, and it can’t be right. I saw him last year when the Marlins were in town from quite a close distance and he’s definitely taller than that and bulkier as well. Plus, at just 22, he’ll probably fill out. A no doubt HOF, barring injury of course, imo.
Greetings all. Nothing like a DP to get things rolling.
Just discovered that Dave Hansen is, miraculously, still in the big leagues. He is still playing for Seattle and hitting a Hansen-like .174.
Teammate Scott Spiezio (whose father, Ed, I watched play for the Padres) is hitting .043.
Guys Please visit our Padres Site @ http://www.padremania.com and join us in our Padres Message Board.
And sometimes a mismatch really is a mismatch. Guess I won’t be watching the replay when I get home tonight.
Our starting pitching is mostly terrible out side of Peavy. Lawrence is inconsistent and fighting his “dead arm.” Park is Park. Woody doesn’t have it at the moment, and I don’t expect Astacio to keep up the string of quality starts. What’s the harm now of bringing up Stauffer and Oxspring or letting Hensley have a go? We can cut Astacio or move him to the pen. We can certainly cut Park if we can cut a Cirillo and eat the money. If I wasn’t worried about starting his service time, I say bring up Carillo!
Not to mention that Bochy has trotted another “powerful” lineup out there tonight. Why is Ross and Valdez on this team when they could have Ben Johnson or Knott? And I know I shouldn’t even bring up the loss of JJ. Sometimes I think either KT has no clue on how to build a roster, or he gives too much imput to Bochy on what kind of player he might want to have.
Another ugly one. 6-1.
Big discussion on mighty 1090 if its embarassing for the pads to in the POs with a sub 500 record.
Guess I’m in the second camp that says it would be nice to win 100 games, but any way we can get it the POs is good with me. Besides, as a caller pointed out, some of the greatest sports stories in our culture are come from nowhere, losers to winnners, stories, no?
What’s you take, embarrased if we make the playoffs?
Not embarrassed in the least. And if we become the team with the worst record to win a World Series, well, it won’t tarnish it in the least for me.
Having said that, my concern is not making the playoffs. And the way they are playing, that remains a distinct possibility.
No way should anyone be embarrassed for making the playoffs. Somebody has to win the division; that’s the way the thing is set up. If it’s a team with a losing record, so be it. They should be embarrassed for having a losing record, but not for making the playoffs despite that fact.
I wouldn’t be embarrassed for making the playoffs. I WOULD be concerned that upper management would try and spin a playoff berth as a sign that the team had a successful season, and therefore, use it as an excuse to not make worthwhile changes to a team at that has only played well one month of the season.
I can tell you, I am seriously concerned with the possibility of NOT making the playoffs. The team I am worried about is the dbacks. they got the hitting, their rotation is becoming more solid with the return of Ortiz and Estes.. the return of Lyons and the addition of Worrell makes their bullpen a lot better.
I expect our record against everyone else to be about the same as the dbacks, but their is a REAL possibility of being swept by the dbacks in both series against them. We cant frikin hit and that is a big frikin problem. If we dont have Peavy going at least two games in those two series we are in BIG trouble. Even then, he might have to throw two shutouts in order for us to win.
Ortiz and Estes are both bad pitchers, not to mention tremendously overrated. Ortiz already has blown up as expected, and so will Estes, a 5 ERA pitcher, when his unnatural luck runs out. That is the equivalent of two 2005 editions of Woody Williams returning to their staff. They also can’t magically make their bullpen even as good as the Rockies. Brandon Webb is their best pitcher, and he has a 3.8 ERA. Also, Eaton should be back in time for the series against the Diamondbacks.
It is possible for the Padres to lose the division; it just doesn’t seem likely when the Dodgers and Diamondbacks are continuing their self-immolation.
On the other hand, an interesting dark horse is the Giants. Lowry, Schmidt and Tomko have all pitched well since the break, and if their veterans can turn it around, and Bonds comes back in September, they could be there at the end.
I Bonds comes back this season, I’ll eat this computer.
I didnt say that the dbacks were going to set the world on fire vs the rest of the league, I simply said that the additions of Ortiz andEstes to Vasquez, Webb, Vargas and Halsey will make for a tough matchup with the Padres. If we cant put some distance between us before playing against them, we are going to be in trouble.
RHP Jake Peavy makes his 100th career start Thursday at Florida. His record is 43-29. … With a scoreless inning Tuesday, RHP Akinori Otsuka lowered his ERA since May 30 to 0.92. … OF Ryan Klesko was held out of the lineup Wednesday against Florida LHP Dontrelle Willis. Klesko is batting .207 against lefties. … With two walks Tuesday, RF Brian Giles increased his total to a major league-leading 92.