first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (2-5, 4.47 ERA) vs Derek Lowe (5-7, 3.69 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | Padres.com
Now that was a dominant pitching performance. Brad Penny was outstanding, but Jake Peavy pitched about as well as a guy can pitch (dig the photo; it’s even better in print, splayed across the front page of the sports section). Some of us (myself included) would like to have seen Peavy lifted an inning earlier, but 124 pitches doesn’t strike me as outrageous, as long as it doesn’t become the norm. Robert Fick scored the only run of the game on an RBI double off the bat of Brian Giles.
Fick, subbing for the injured Ramon Hernandez, has also done a real nice job behind the dish after not having played there since 2001. He and Peavy were locked in last night. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: The Padres did a tremendous job this off-season of assembling a solid bench and bullpen for relatively little money, and there is no better example of that than Fick. He never gives away an at-bat, and his versatility is such an asset. Am I fan? You bet I am.
For more on Monday night’s game, be sure to check out Rich Campbell’s take over at San Diego Spotlight. And speaking of SDS, Peter Friberg will be on “Outta Left Field” before tonight’s game, talking about the Padres draft. Tape it, watch it, love it.
That reminds me, there is a game tonight. Two very different approaches to pitching for the starters. Here are ground ball/fly ball ratios:
2005 career
Williams 0.91 0.86
Lowe 2.88 3.29
And, of course, the head-to-head matchups:
AB BA OBP SLG
Williams vs current Dodgers 166 .253 .337 .446
Lowe vs current Padres 111 .234 .298 .270
Jeff Kent (.350/.469/.750 in 40 AB) is doing the big damage, no surprise. The only other guys who’ve had much success against Woody are hurt. Story of the Dodgers season so far.
On the flip side, nobody has done anything against Lowe. Geoff Blum (.200/.250/.400 in 15 AB) has the lone homer. And in contrast to the recent past, Lowe has very pronounced lefty/righty splits this year:
AB BA OBP SLG
vs LHB 207 .324 .366 .449
vs RHB 182 .214 .226 .335
Sort of the anti-Penny. If we get a glimpse of Xavier Nady tonight, it most likely will be again as a defensive replacement.
With the D’backs losing at San Francisco on Monday, the Friars have extended their lead in the NL West to 4 1/2 games. Now is a good time to put a little distance between first and second place. Here’s hoping Woody and the boys can keep the ball rolling Tuesday night.
Do you really think the team would be better off without Roberts?
This series is going to be a rehash of the ’03 World Series: all shutouts.
Funny, I don’t see Christy Mathewson, Joe McGinnity, Chief Bender, or Eddie Plank around.
I guess that would be the 1903 series and not the 2003 series.
I think the team should have him in his proper role:
Fifth outfielder/pinch runner/good clubhouse guy
Thanks, Kevin. Good guess.
Damian Jackson, RBI MACHINE?
Everyone thougth that coming into the year. I just don’t see how one can think that with his current production.
Yeah, I got to say a quick hello to Grant at the tail end of Outta Left Field and he came off pretty much like he does on TV – genuinely nice guy.
Dammit, Burroughs. Gotta slide there.
Guess not.
I know Bochy plays the book there, but Williams is hitting .300.
Kevin, he’s what, 33 years old, with ample major league experience?
What makes you think he’s a .355/.455 guy, aside from a hot start? And he’s still not scoring many runs, mostly because a .45o OBP SUCKS FOR A LEADOFF MAN, AND IT’S AS GOOD AS WE CAN HOPE FOR, BECAUSE HE IS SIMPLY NOT A GOOD HITTER!!!!
So there!
The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived, Robert Fick, shall break this open.
Of course, he is only great because “Robert” is so similar to “Roberts.”
Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!
Sure, but if he is getting it done, why complain. Wait until he goes in the tank, then do your thing. (Roberts goes to third on that hit.)
Told you so…
So, ya think the Dodgers wish they’d signed Fick when he came to them looking for work this winter?
Told me what?
I’m NOT complaining. I’m just stating my position (which I believe you expect to be proved true before the season’s end) as a counter to your marginally defensible position.
He’s a below-average major league centerfielder, on an above-average team. This an an area we can improve.
I would feel differently if he played CF like Gary Maddox, and was hitting eighth.
Told you the Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived would break it open, silly…
Hail Fick!!!
Like I said, before the season, I agreed with your position. But things have changed. When he starts sucking, then it will have been a bad signing. But right now, it’s working.
Scoring more runs than the opposition is what works, and Dave Roberts doesn’t fit that MO.
Ain’t baseball great?!?
Who would be better in center? because they weren’t going to sign anyone better
Anyone here buying the “Nevin has a pulled muscle” excuse?
“I guess if you don’t read Friar Faithful, it’s not so funny.” – Lance
That’s a not so subtle way of saying something isn’t funny.
DR has 8 win shares.
8 Win Shares is good for second on the team tied with Eaton, Loretta, Klesko, Nevin and Peavy (because negative WS are stupid).
Richard, now you are talking.
The league average for centerfielders is: .273/.341/.440 and DR plays half his games in PetCo.
Now you are really talking, Richard.
What I meant was that it was sort of an inside joke, the humor in which would be unlocked by going to Friar Faithful and reading the (limited) archives.
I figured it would get us more hits, at the very least. Damn, Richard, you’re a bigger nag than my mother.
DR’s BA is just over his 60th Percentile PECOTA Projection. His OBP is right between his 60th & 75th. And his Slugging is .045 over his 90th Percentile.
Breakout? I’d say so. His Breakout Rate was only 14.1%, btw.
Richard, you know damn well DR is mediocre, at best. His early-season success is only slightly more meaningful (in terms of projecting the future) than the spring training success of Jesse Garcia.
DR also has a .285 EqA this season.
198 plate appearances is a decent sample size…
Solid effort from Woody tonight. Let’s hope the bullpen can hold it.
Ouch, 13-run eighth for the Yanks against TB:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=250621110
Irrelevant to us, but ouch.
There goes the scoreless streak. C’mon, Scotty.
Williams: 6.7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR (96 Pitches, 55 Strikes)
Linebrink: 0.3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0, BB, 0 K, 0 HR (7 Pitches, 5 Strikes)
Unless they pinch-hit for Linebrink, he should pitch the 8th.
One thing I learned reading Bill James in the late seventies/early eighties is that sometimes you have to trust that the numbers are only temporary, and that players will regress toward the mean, or their own established level of performance.
Are 198 PA’s a more meaningful sample than the whole of DR’s career?
You’re fooling yourself, m’boy.
He may keep it up for the season, but baseball history is littered with such fluke performances. I wouldn’t want to make a living predicting such randomness, and I wouldn’t want to count on a continued fluke in CF.
Lance, all that is correct to a point. You have to take into consideration the possibility that something has changed. Perhaps Roberts has changed his approach in some way or something to that effect. Maybe playing regularly has allowed him to get his timing right. Or maybe he’ll regress to the mean. Still, it isn’t necessarily a fluke.
Giles has reached safely in 11 straight plate appearances. That ties the franchise record (held by Brian Giles).
This is why I’d hit him leadoff…
Incredible run by Giles. Wow.
Nady sure would have made a good choice to bat for Sweeney here.
Oh and DR has previously had to seasons in which he had a .275 EqA which isn’t that far from his current .285…
I remember Winfield and Bip Roberts getting 8 straight hits.
11 times on base is pretty impressive.
Make that “two seasons.” What’s with Wunsch?
Lance: It is true that baseball history is littered with fluke performances. Question: When does a performance stop being a fluke? It would have been easy to dismiss, for example, Mark Loretta’s 2003 season based on his previous history and his age. But it turned out that he had reached a new level of ability. I’m not quite sure we can say the same about Roberts, but I’m a lot less sure we can dismiss it than I was, say, a month ago. It is possible that we’ve underestimated the guy.
I wonder what the longest such streak is?