In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Twins (18 Jun 2005)
Sat, Jun 18, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 4:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (3-6, 4.76 ERA) vs Brad Radke (5-5, 4.13 ERA)
Friars try to avoid getting their arses handed to them yet again by some team from the midwest. The rest is details. I’ll be eating airplane food tomorrow, so it’s probably best that I won’t be able to watch the game. Mmmm, plastic biscuit.
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June 18, 2005 at 4:27 pm
initial impressions, Klesko got us started..Giles is still struggling leaving Nevin to lead off an inning..
Lawrence seems to have his good sinker today, we need it..
June 18, 2005 at 4:28 pm
If Nevin can get beaned more often…
June 18, 2005 at 4:29 pm
64% odds of coming away with at least one run.
June 18, 2005 at 4:30 pm
Excellent. 41% odds of getting at least one more.
June 18, 2005 at 4:31 pm
Should be probability rather than odds.
June 18, 2005 at 4:31 pm
anyone realize that giles is 1 for his last 20..
Sweeney comes through and Sean drives in Nevin.
June 18, 2005 at 4:32 pm
Sweeney deserves more playing time. He’s been amazing this year.
June 18, 2005 at 4:34 pm
62.5% probability of winning.
June 18, 2005 at 4:35 pm
75% probability of winning. 3-0, Padres.
June 18, 2005 at 4:36 pm
clutch two out hit by Greene..wtg
whats wrong with these Padres?
June 18, 2005 at 4:38 pm
I’m getting the useless numbers from BP’s Expected Win Matrix.
June 18, 2005 at 4:40 pm
The probability of scoring 1 or more runs at the beginning of every inning is 28.1%. Torii Hunter leads off the bottom of the second…
June 18, 2005 at 4:41 pm
Probability of holding the Twins scoreless this inning following the HBP: 57.5%.
June 18, 2005 at 4:41 pm
I wondered about that. Sweeney is having a fine year and he had a fine one last year. He can continue to have success if Bochy doesnt overuse him. If he is overused, his weaknesses will be exposed and he will probably revert to his norm(.250 or so)
June 18, 2005 at 4:42 pm
Hunter was out by a mile!
June 18, 2005 at 4:43 pm
The second base umpire just cost us. Prob. zero runs if he gets the call right: 83.6%, since he got it wrong: 37.9%. That sucks.
June 18, 2005 at 4:45 pm
That flyball drops it from 37.9% to 33.3%, but reduces the likelihood of hanging a crooked number. And a sac fly brings him home. Probability of holding them to one: 93.2%.
June 18, 2005 at 4:46 pm
WOW! Dave Roberts makes a tremendous catch against the wall in deep center!!!
June 18, 2005 at 4:47 pm
Probability of winning: 74%.
June 18, 2005 at 4:47 pm
perfect example of scoring without a hit, but good job by Lawrence to limit the damage.(with a little help from his defense)
June 18, 2005 at 4:50 pm
They were, of course, given a huge assist.
June 18, 2005 at 4:52 pm
They also managed to get a runner on second with no outs despite being caught stealing.
June 18, 2005 at 4:52 pm
I didn’t think the “assist comment” went through. Sweeney needs to come up big again.
June 18, 2005 at 4:53 pm
There was only a 27.8% probability of scoring with runners on first and third with two out.
June 18, 2005 at 4:54 pm
67.6% probability of winning, now.
June 18, 2005 at 4:55 pm
I hate that umpires have an effect on games.
June 18, 2005 at 4:55 pm
what was the reason giles didnt score on Nevin’s single to right?
June 18, 2005 at 4:56 pm
Shutout no longer a possibility, but no-hitter still intact as the Twins come up to bat in the third.
June 18, 2005 at 4:57 pm
The third base coach held him there. He had forever to get home, too. Ford bobbled the ball.
June 18, 2005 at 4:59 pm
83.6% probability of keeping the Twins off the board this inning.
June 18, 2005 at 5:00 pm
40 pitches already for B-Law…
June 18, 2005 at 5:01 pm
Next two pitches are outs, though. 42 pitches through three innings.
June 18, 2005 at 5:02 pm
Lawrence: 3.0 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 K (1 HBP)
June 18, 2005 at 5:03 pm
14 pitches per inning, 73.8% strikes.
June 18, 2005 at 5:05 pm
Maybe Radke’s walk totals are low because he gets so many damn called strikes…
June 18, 2005 at 5:07 pm
Khalil is having a pretty good plate appearance. And he walks.
June 18, 2005 at 5:08 pm
Everything borderline that Radke throws is called a strike.
June 18, 2005 at 5:10 pm
Expected Win Matrix says: 65.8% win probability
June 18, 2005 at 5:13 pm
Sure seems like the Twins are fouling everything off.
June 18, 2005 at 5:16 pm
First hit of the night for the Twins. (I counted and there have been 15 foul balls hit by the Twins…)
June 18, 2005 at 5:18 pm
Every single batter Lawrence has faced, he’s gotten out. He hit Hunter, but then Hunter was thrown out at second (called safe, but he was thrown out damnit). And the Twins’ first hit of the night was erased on a double play.
June 18, 2005 at 5:18 pm
there goes the no hitter…lol
at least we got the dp ball right after
June 18, 2005 at 5:18 pm
Lawrence: 4.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 0 HR (1 HBP)
June 18, 2005 at 5:20 pm
Radke just got mildly squeezed twice in this PA. Fick absolutely hammered that pitch foul…
June 18, 2005 at 5:21 pm
Fick hit another one pretty hard to the gap, but Ford cut it off and held him to a single.
June 18, 2005 at 5:21 pm
Bob does a good job of staying back on the ball.
June 18, 2005 at 5:23 pm
I love to watch Fick play. He goes from first to second on a Klesko single.
June 18, 2005 at 5:23 pm
I love to watch Fick play. He goes from first to third on a Klesko single.
June 18, 2005 at 5:24 pm
70 percent chance of giles hitting into a dp
June 18, 2005 at 5:24 pm
Damn. I wish that “first to second” comment hadn’t gone through.
June 18, 2005 at 5:25 pm
15.2%, not 70.
June 18, 2005 at 5:26 pm
87.2% probability of scoring here.
June 18, 2005 at 5:27 pm
That pitch may have been low, but it was SO close.
June 18, 2005 at 5:27 pm
65% probability of scoring following that horrendous AB by Phil Nevin.
June 18, 2005 at 5:28 pm
well he got out of it, he walked…
I knew he wasnt getting a hit..
what the heck was that from Nevin?
June 18, 2005 at 5:28 pm
Two walks by Radke tonight. That makes six for the year.
June 18, 2005 at 5:29 pm
It was a swinging bunt from Nevin. Mark Sweeney just struck out. 29.2% probability of scoring, now.
June 18, 2005 at 5:30 pm
well so much for sweeney’s hot streak..
come on sean
June 18, 2005 at 5:31 pm
Radke gets out of the bases loaded, no outs jam. Anyone care to guess why? Phil Nevin’s swinging bunt on the first pitch. It wouldn’t have even been a strike. Nevin shouldn’t be in the order against right-handed pitchers…
June 18, 2005 at 5:31 pm
geesh! two nubbers and a strike out with bases loaded. we are snakebit!
June 18, 2005 at 5:32 pm
Nevin has a .293 OBP against right-handers this season.
June 18, 2005 at 5:33 pm
66.4% probability of winning…
June 18, 2005 at 5:33 pm
eh? radke has a total of 5 walks for the season. why take a strike in an rbi situation?
Nevin already singled and hbp..
June 18, 2005 at 5:34 pm
Average number of runs scored with the bases juiced and none out: 2.3444.
June 18, 2005 at 5:35 pm
Hank, I said it wasn’t a strike. Also, why take a strike? Because you don’t swing at pitches you can’t hit hard. It’s just plain stupid to swing at a ball you can’t hit hard no matter what the situation.
June 18, 2005 at 5:36 pm
btw, he also has 38 of his 47 rbi vs right handers
June 18, 2005 at 5:36 pm
Lawrence gives up his first walk of the evening after strike three is called a check swing.
June 18, 2005 at 5:37 pm
Hank, RBI’s don’t mean anything.
June 18, 2005 at 5:38 pm
who are you to say what pitches nevin can and cant hit hard. he was there, u werent
June 18, 2005 at 5:39 pm
i tell u what rbi mean, it means someone scored a fucking run and right now that is sorely lacking from the padres offense
June 18, 2005 at 5:40 pm
Just got to the office after my son’s football game. The good guys lost. Hopefully the Padres can hold this lead so I’m not 0-for-2 today.
June 18, 2005 at 5:42 pm
Hank and Richard
sittin’ in a tree
K-I-S-S-I-N-G.
Why don’t you two lovebirds get a room?
June 18, 2005 at 5:42 pm
Base hit, DR. I imagine he’ll be running…
June 18, 2005 at 5:43 pm
Hank, the RBI is highly batting order dependent.
June 18, 2005 at 5:45 pm
Roberts just got picked off of first. That’ll happen when the pitcher balks.
June 18, 2005 at 5:45 pm
Richard, you’re right about not swinging at balls you can’t hit hard. But RBI’s do mean SOMETHING. Not as much as people think, but more than nothing.
And Hank, the reason Nevin’ RBI’s are mostly against RHP’s is because he’s faced more RHP’s, and the hitters in front of him are mostly left-handed, and as such are on base more frequently against RHP’s.
June 18, 2005 at 5:46 pm
BP Basics: Measuring Offense
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=2562
June 18, 2005 at 5:47 pm
True, they do mean something. From the BP Basics series:
The thing to understand about counting stats is that, absent supporting information, they’re really only useful at the margins. That’s to say, it’s hard to rack up 140 RBI and somehow stink. Conversely, it’s difficult to log a season’s worth of plate appearances, total 40 RBI and somehow be any good.
June 18, 2005 at 5:48 pm
Richard, RBI’s are quite batting order dependent, but the reason some hitters have the good fortune of all those RBI opportunities that come in the 3-4-5 slots is because they’re good hitters. All of them except Phil Nevin, of course.
June 18, 2005 at 5:48 pm
that is why you need BOTH types of hitters. those that get on and those that drive them in.
Ideally, you could have one player do both, but those superstars are hard to come by.
June 18, 2005 at 5:49 pm
Lawrence: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 0 HR (1 HBP)
June 18, 2005 at 5:50 pm
That’s true, Hank. You need high-OBP guys and high-SLG guys. Phil Nevin is neither.
June 18, 2005 at 5:50 pm
He used to be a high slugging percentage guy, but he isn’t any longer.
June 18, 2005 at 5:51 pm
actually, you are inferring that the only reason that Nevin leads the team in rbi is because he gets more opportunities. That is incorrect. Giles actually lead the team in PLATE APPEARANCES with runners in scoring position. but too often, he takes the walk, leaving someone else to drive in the runs.
June 18, 2005 at 5:52 pm
You know how a guy like Phil Nevin ends up in as a 3-4-5 hitter. He started there and so he has RBI’s and then they look at RBI’s to see who is good, so they can decide who is a 3-4-5 hitter. It’s circular logic. Of course, circular logic is still a step up for Bochy.
June 18, 2005 at 5:54 pm
Hitters whose primary skill would appear to be “getting on” will drive in a surprising amount of runs when batting behind other players who reach base frequently.
Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, Frankie Frisch, Joe Cronin, and more recently Tommy Herr, Willie MaGee, Keith Hernandez, Rod Carew, and Tony Gwynn all had 100 RBI seasons in this manner.
June 18, 2005 at 5:54 pm
I’m not saying it’s just because he’s getting more opportunities. It’s also because most of his hits have come with runners on, which is simply chance. By that, I mean Nevin over his career has not been consistently better with runners on.
Triple to left field by Robert Fick!
June 18, 2005 at 5:55 pm
Oh and as anecdotatl evidence, if Nevin had walked in his last at-bat, he would have notched an RBI.
June 18, 2005 at 5:56 pm
Make that anecdotal.
June 18, 2005 at 5:57 pm
Fick scores on a misplayed pop fly.
June 18, 2005 at 5:58 pm
Come on now, Richard, Nevin didn’t have 31 and 41 homer seasons because he “started there.” He attained those numbers because he was a VERY good hitter. That may or may not still be true, but anyone who hits 41 homers is a valuable player, unless he does absolutely NOTHING in addition.
Lost in the lights!!! 4-1 Pads!
June 18, 2005 at 5:59 pm
Lawrence has only thrown 13 pitches per inning (73% strikes).
June 18, 2005 at 6:00 pm
This year, Lance. I already said he WAS a good hitter.
June 18, 2005 at 6:04 pm
63.9% probability of scoring at least one run with runners on first and second with none out. Looks like we’re about to beat the odds.
June 18, 2005 at 6:05 pm
Nevermind. Ignore my pessimism. Sean Burroughs just got his first hit of the game.
June 18, 2005 at 6:06 pm
I said it may or MAY NOT still be true.
He has never appeared to be a hitter who would age well. I see him in the mold of Gaetti, Brunansky, McReynolds. You know, white guys who around the age of 31-34, wake up one morning unable to get around on a good fastball.
Sean Burroughs, RBI MACHINE!!!
June 18, 2005 at 6:07 pm
Twins failed to cover first base, but Giles got caught off third base on the play. Reminiscent of Ramon Hernandez and his inability to count to three.
June 18, 2005 at 6:07 pm
94.3% probability of winning, now.
June 18, 2005 at 6:08 pm
Richard, should we continue to ignore your pessimism?
June 18, 2005 at 6:08 pm
Probably.
June 18, 2005 at 6:10 pm
Speaking of Phil Nevin failing to age well, I really hope Towers doesn’t re-sign Ramon Hernandez for more than two years and/or $12 million.
June 18, 2005 at 6:11 pm
Twins just got their second hit of the night. Lawrence is tough to hit when he is on…
June 18, 2005 at 6:11 pm
Uh-oh. Just got their third hit of the night and second of the inning.
June 18, 2005 at 6:12 pm
On the pitch that Hunter hit, Lawrence matched Radke’s pitch total for the night.
June 18, 2005 at 6:14 pm
Lawrence had a double play ball, but it got to him so fast, Greene wasn’t to second base yet.