first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (5-0, 2.00 ERA) vs Wes Obermueller (1-0, 2.43 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | SI | Padres.com
Ho hum, the Pads won another one-run game to improve their home record to 17-4 and extend their lead in the NL West to a whopping three games over Arizona. Darrell May again kept things close until the bench and bullpen could take care of business. Akinori Otsuka, Rudy Seanez, and Scott Linebrink finished up on the mound, with Miguel Ojeda providing the game winner on a two-out pinch double in the bottom of the ninth that scored Geoff Blum.
Tonight it’s all about Peavy. Wanna know something scary? Peavy is having a better year so far than last year. You know what that means, right? At least one Cy Young vote. Check it out, through 10 starts:
date IP/G ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 P/IP 2004 2 Jul 5.9 1.98 8.69 0.46 3.05 9.00 16.5 2005 26 May 7.2 2.00 6.38 0.50 1.50 9.13 14.2
ERA is about the same, but he’s harder to hit and he’s cut his walks in half. He’s also throwing over two fewer pitches per inning, which is allowing him to work an additional 1 1/3 innings per game. Oh, and he turns 24 today. Happy birthday, Jake!
AB BA OBP SLG Peavy vs current Brewers 32 .250 .324 .531 Obermueller vs current Padres 37 .297 .378 .324
Not much to go on for either guy. Geoff Jenkins (.571/.571/1.857 in 7 AB) is doing virtually all the damage against Peavy. On the other side, Obermueller has a very long name. He’s also put up some real good numbers in limited action this year. Beyond that, I don’t know much about him.
X Factor
Xavier Nady, pinch hitting for Rudy Seanez, led off the seventh with an infield single. He stayed in the game and played left field, striking out in his only other at-bat, in the ninth.
Interesting blurb from CBSSportsline.com (though it should be pointed out that they also list Darrell May as the #2 starter, so consider the source): Do the Arizona Diamondbacks know something about right-handed reliever Akinori Otsuka that other teams don’t?
Otsuka has faced six batters the past two days at Bank One Ballpark in Phoenix and failed to get any of them out. Wednesday night he suffered his second loss this season against the Diamondbacks.
Wednesday night, Otsuka loaded the bases with none out, giving up two hits and a walk. It was two hits and a wild pitch surrendered by Dennys Reyes that allowed the three runs charged to Otsuka to score.
But there is a trend.
In four games against Arizona this season, Otsuka has given up six runs on seven hits and two walks in just 2 2/3 innings. Everyone else has scored just four runs in 17 2/3 innings.
Over two seasons, the Diamondbacks have scored six runs against Otsuka in just 10 2/3 innings.
Not sure if anyone has posted this before but I found it interesting. Baseball Prospectus is running a Playoff Odds report that’s updated daily:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
The Padres are listed as the biggest favorite to win their division in all of baseball and are neck and neck with the Cardinals as most likely to make the playoffs at 82%. I don’t have a BPro subscription so I don’t really know the exact methodology here but from what I’ve read it’s pretty accurate.
Two straight walks to open the bottom half of the first. Couldn’t ask for a better start.
Looks like we should have asked for a better start. No runs scored.
Peavy is throwing a lot of pitches tonight, esp compared to his last outing.
Thanks for the link, Brian. We did point some of that out last night. And when I say we, I mean, I said, Otsuka is good vs. everyone but the Diamondbacks and then Richard and Geoff actually found the stats.
Peavy is trying to strike everyone out.
54 pitches thus far in the 3rd…at this rate, he will only make it thru 6
nice job JP
Its time for some offense here…we need runs. Klesko better not swing at the first pitch when he gets up. Patience, Ryno, patience.
Why does Maddux insist on putting his hand on the guys’ shoulder when he talks to them? Is he trying to be a father figure or something?
1-0 Pads… anybody think Peavey needs more?
Have you noticed the porn-star mustache on Maddox??? He wouldn’t be puttin’ his hand on MY shoulder for a pep talk.
If DJ makes a good throw, then still no runs
Peavy is getting rocked tonight…a lot of hard hits.
I have been sporadically listening on the radio, and I have no idea how this could have happened!
I’m SHOCKED, I tell you!
We’ll come back, though…
Battle of the bullpens now. Peavy looked wild tonight, by his standards. Almost like he was uncharateristically juiced because of his birthday and/or all the recently favorable press.
The last time Peavy failed to go five innings? July 7, 2004. That was also his 11th start of the season. Here is his line that night vs tonight:
IP H ER HR BB SO
2004: 4.0 7 4 1 4 2
2005: 4.0 6 4 1 1 5
Too weird.
I am glad he got one of these out of his system. It seems to be within his character that he will bounce back strong next time out.
Klesko and Giles hacking first pitch with RISP against a guy who couldn’t throw strikes isn’t looking real good right now.
Also, if that throw to the plate in the fourth is on the money, Overbay is out at the plate and Branyan’s homer is a solo shot. Glover’s line to first ends the inning or, more likely, he’s lifted for a hitter and the Brewers go deeper into the ‘pen. And Peavy has a 4-1 lead.
It’s a game of inches.
So true Geoff.
DJ’s throw could have been better to say the least. Overbay was dead meat.
Kevin-Sorry for repeating a topic from last night.
Can anyone tell me why they STILL play “Another One Bites the Dust” after a strikeout? Seems so Class A ball. Or worse.
No problem on the repeat. It’s always good to see the mainstream media pick up on what happens in these chats.
I’m also wishing we hadn’t burned Sweeney so early.
Horrible bunt by DJ. Not his best game so far tonight. I guess there is always Fick
Here’s Fick now. Won’t have anyone left but Burroughs.
I would have never figured Dave Roberts would get such clutch hits for this team. Get on base, steal some bases, sure, but he has come up big in clutch situations. Tie game.
*Drinking the Blum Could Be Our Starter at Third Kool Aid* Who’s Sean Burroughs again? Big shot from Geoff. 7-4 Pads.
That Kool-Aid is my favorite flavor.
Nevin hits a triple. Highlight of the year.
Burroughs not living up to his Little League projections.
Reyes did a terrific job in long relief tonight, BTW.
I don’t know how much longer Blum will play this well, but if it buys us time to figure out what to do with Sean B or third in general, I will take every drop of it.
Ed gets some face time on Channel 4. Sweet!
Who’s Ed?
He got to second on a strikeout. I’m so wasted! (Spicoli)
Ed Barnes. He’s Mud and Mark’s stats guy and a regular reader of Ducksnorts.
LOL on the Spicoli comment. Classic.
Geoff, thanks for the love. If I had known they were going to go to me I would have made a ducksnorts sign. Between Mud saying Ducksnorts every game, we’ll get the site tons of run!
One of the few times you won’t see a guy score from third on a single.
Ah, cool, on the Ed comment. I knew you couldn’t be talking about Giovanola.
That pitch sequence from Hammond was great. He got that guy with some 82-mph heat.
Is it possible that Hammond’s change is better than Hoffy’s, or is that crazy talk?
Kevin, you can read some of Ed’s stuff here:
http://www.themirl.com/writers_barnes.html
As for Giovanola, you’re on your own there.
Cubs are beating the Dodgers, 2-1, in the 10th.
The Brewers were talking about some coach or someone, didn’t recognize the guy’s name, and I’m at work, but this guy said he has the best change he’s ever seen, including Andy Messersmith.
Man, DJ might not have much of an arm, but he sure has some range to his left. Holy smokes.
Well the bullpen was certainly efficient after Peavy’s early exit. We didn’t have to burn one of the big four.
Will Blummer get a pie in the face?