In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Reds (9 May 2005)

first pitch: 4:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Jake Peavy (2-0, 2.32 ERA) vs Aaron Harang (1-2, 3.96 ERA)
game preview: CBS

The bad news is, the Padres are coming off a 15-5 shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals. The good news is, the Friars still managed to take three of four in St. Louis, where they hadn’t won any games prior to this week since 2001. Even in the loss, it was basically an 11-run first that did them in. One bad inning in four games against what had been the best team in the NL to that point? I’ll take it.

Up next, the Cincinnati Reds, who are currently 11-19, 8 games behind the aforementioned Cardinals in the NL Central. The first game features Padres ace Peavy against San Diego product Harang. It also marks the return of Khalil Greene, who has been out with a broken finger since April 16.

                          AB   BA  OBP  SLG
Peavy vs current Reds     49 .224 .309 .306
Harang vs current Padres  40 .300 .364 .375

Not much to go on here for either pitcher. Joe Randa has the lone homer against Peavy. As for Harang, historically he has been easier to hit as the game goes on. Three-year splits by inning (courtesy ESPN):

Inn   AB   BA  OBP  SLG AB/HR  ISO
1-3  659 .266 .324 .403  36.6 .137
4-6  507 .304 .361 .546  19.5 .242

And by number of pitches (courtesy ESPN):

 #Pit    AB   BA  OBP  SLG AB/HR  ISO
 1-15   150 .260 .343 .420  30.0 .160
16-30   190 .274 .333 .405  38.0 .131
31-45   220 .256 .297 .379  55.0 .123
46-60   203 .271 .320 .438  25.4 .167
61-75   191 .288 .350 .476  38.2 .188
76-90   163 .350 .406 .632  14.8 .282
91-105   92 .261 .324 .543  15.3 .282

The strategy would seem to be make him throw a lot of pitches early, then jump on him when he starts leaving them up in the zone the second and third times through the lineup. That’s actually not a bad approach against most pitchers. We’ll see how well the Padres can execute.

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