first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (7-1, 3.49 ERA) vs Jason Schmidt (3-1, 4.79 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | SI | Padres.com
Just got in from Vegas; thanks to Jay for posting the key pitcher-batter matchups in yesterday’s comments. Here they are:
Good: (AB/BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) Sweeney: 20/.350/.458/.750/1.208 Hernandez: 15/.400/.526/.867/1.393 Jackson: 13/.308/.438/.615/1.053 Blum: 13/.231/.286/.538/.824
Ugly: Nevin: 20/.200/.261/.250/.511 Klesko: 41/.171/.286/.317/.603 Giles: 27/.074/.324/.222/.547
Good: Bonds (who cares, but his OPS is 1.227) Alou 16/.375/.412/.813/1.224 Tucker 8/.500/.500/.625/1.125 Durham 16/.250/.400/.688/1.088 Alfonzo 20/.300/.391/.600/.991 Snow 21/.286/.348/.524/.872
Ugly: Vizquel OPS with 6 AB .250; Marquis Grissom (out) has an OPS .274 in 28 AB's
Jay also had this commentary to offer, and I think it’s spot on: “I know it is asking for way, way too much, but today looks like a day to see Nady, Sweeney in there (I say give Nady a go if your big guns are so bad against Schmidt).”
The good news is, Sweeney and Jackson in are in today’s lineup. The bad news? Giles and Klesko play, Nady sits.
X Factor
Xavier Nady started in left field Saturday. Batting seventh, he singled in four at-bats. He also drove in the tying run in the seventh on what should have been an infield hit; unfortunately first base umpire C.B. Bucknor missed the call at first, so it was just an RBI ground out. Nady had one other nice at-bat; in the fourth, after falling behind 0-2, he worked the count full before flying to the warning track in left.
Pads have already clinched their second straight series win on the road against a division rival and a winning record on the road trip. Today they go for the sweep against one of the tougher right-handers in baseball.
Back of the envelope calculation: .469
He may be the kind of guy you have to overpay, because of his effect on a pitching staff and Bochy is partial to catchers with intangibles.
DJ steals second, then slides off the bag and is tagged out to end the inning. Irritating, but we’ll take the 6-3 lead without complaint.
Hermey: .265/.333/.469
I really don’t like the idea of giving a catcher entering his 30s a 4-year deal. I love what Ramon has done for us, but I just think that has the chance to cripple the team down the line. I hope they can work something out for fewer years.
Damian makes up for coming off the bag!
Holy smokes, that was a brilliant play by DJ.
Eaton has gotten great support again. He is 14th in the majors in run support with 6.52 a game. The next best Padre is Peavy at 43rd.
I asked Jonathan (@ pdxbeavers.com) about Stauffer’s splits … and this morning he sent me this info about his time in Portland …
Guys:
You had asked for these a while back, sorry about the delay.
I see that his ML splits appear to have evened out a bit – here’s what they were in Portland.
This season, in 38 2/3 innings, Stauffer had the following splits:
Vs RH: 16IP — 14H — 4BB — 14K –0HRA — .237BAA — 3.94 ERA
Vs LH: 22 2/3IP — 20H — 4BB — 17K — 1HRA — .238BAA — 1.19 ERA
In 2004, in 81 1/3 IP, 3.54 ERA:
vs RH: 37 2/3IP — 35H — 12BB — 18K — 4HRA — .243 BAA — 40GB — 47FLY
Vs LH: 43 2/3 — 48H — 14BB — 32K — 11HRA — .276 BAA — 58 GB — 34FLY
Let me know if you have any questions – clearly, he was solid, if somewhat average in 2004. At no time last season was he the best pitcher on the Portland staff. He was dominant early in the year in 2005 – clearly the best pitcher on the staff in April and deserved the promotion.
Jonathan
… if you’ve not check’d out pdxbeavers.com, you should!
It didn’t look like Ryno was going to catch that.
We’re over 100 comments. Anyone tired?
Do you overpay him to the tune of Varitek money if it costs you a chance at re-signing Giles because we can’t get Klesko or Nevin off the books. I like Ramon as much as the next guy, but I would hesitate to give him 4/40.
Thanks for the splits, LM.
Dave Roberts is officially my favorite player to watch.
No, I wouldn’t give him Varitek money. I guess I’m not sure what “overpaying” him would be or what he will even ask for.
Ryno made a nice play. Kevin, I’m tired but that’s because I drove home this morning from Vegas and I only got about four hours of sleep last night.
But it’s a good tired, you know?
Ramon is not worth 4 years, $40 million.
Yes, thanks for posting that, LM. And everyone should go check out pdxbeavers.com if they haven’t already. Jonathan does a fantastic job over there; I wish more minor league teams had that kind of coverage.
His best year as a pro, he had a WARP3 of 6.7. I honestly don’t think he’ll approach that again.
Number of times someone said that about Jay Payton: zero.
Geoff, what happens there …
Roberts makes a great play, then leads off the next inning … oh, nevermind.
Who are you talking about, Richard?
I know, isn’t Roberts great to watch? I still can’t help but think he’s playing over his head, but he is fun to watch out there. I hope he keeps it up.
Speaking of Roberts, that’s a terrible called strike three to start the sixth.
WARP1 for Dave Roberts: 1.3
WARP1 for Payton/Vazquez/Pauley: 0.3
“Terrible” doesn’t do it justice, Geoff.
Kevin: PDXBeavers.com has daily coverage of the Portland Beavers, including recaps, stories, interviews, and more. Readers can post comments as well. Good stuff.
Padres are 6th in the NL in DEF_EFF. Giles is 4 for 4! And Klesko goes all the way to third. Wow.
Giles is a monster. Fourth hit today.
Regarding Ramon at 4/$40, what kills me is that it’s the Red Sox overpaying for Varitek that set the bar that high. You know, the Red Sox who like to complain about how much the Yankees spend? Please.
Sweeney is finally rewarded for a good PA. Ramon, put ‘em away!
Farm Report: Here’s a note that will surprise most of (courtesy of the Portland Beaver’s pre-game email) …
For the second straight night, Beavers shortstop Jesse Garcia fell one leg shy of the cycle (that is, a single, double, triple and home run in the same game). Friday night, he was a triple away. Last night, he lacked only a double.
Good call on that, Geoff.
Speaking of Ramon with the bases loaded, the Padres have two players known for small ball postseason plays. Roberts’ steal and Ramon’s bases-loaded bunt vs. the Sox a couple years ago.
That’s amusing, but a 31 y/o should beat up on AAA pitching.
Yeah, the Sox are the Evil Empire to everyone but the Yankees.
Too bad Ramon couldn’t get the hit there. I was hoping he’d be rewarded for taking the first pitch.
PDXBeavers is a great site. Now that Knott and Ben Johnson are swinging the bat better, I will have to visit more often. Once Timmy got promoted and the offense was in a collective slump I tailed off there.
That was a bunt for hit, which isn’t necessarily small ball.
Jesse Garcia’s career WARP3: 0.2
Would you pay Ramon $32mil for four seasons.
What if it’s a 31 year-old AAA pitcher? Who “should” win?
Not complaining, well not too much, but the Pads have left on 9 already today, 7 of them in scoring position.
It’s not big ball, but I see what you’re saying.
Touché, LM.
I don’t think Ramon should be given four years.
If Eaton gets out of this inning, that’s enough from him. He’ll be at 100 pitches.
4/32 for Ramon is more palatable, but I would prefer at most 3/24 with a fourth year option.
He ought to be done, now. That’s a solid effort from Eaton.
I guess the years will be the sticking point, not the money.