White Sox and the Dowd Report

First off, getting back to yesterday’s question, Player A is the Mets’ Todd Zeile; Player B is, yep, the Rockies’ Mike Hampton.

Couple good articles over at Baseball Prospectus:

  • This one’s on the White Sox organization. Keith J. Scherer talks about some of the up-and-comers in the system but the real prize here is the insight gleaned from a discussion with Kirk Champion, the pitching coach at Triple-A Charlotte. It’s always good to look at the numbers and read the reports when evaluating prospects. But it’s also useful (not to mention interesting) to learn about organizational philosophies.
  • This one’s about the increasingly pathetic Pete Rose saga. You don’t want to get me started on this subject, trust me. Suffice to say that, while MLB pushed me away from its product for significant periods of time with its strikes in the 1990s, the day Bud Selig or anyone else with that kind of power decides to let Rose back into baseball and eligible for induction into the HOF is the day I walk away forever. Many folks don’t understand my attitude. Many folks also like “pro” wrestling, where show is more important than outcome. That’s not the appeal of baseball to me, and if MLB reinstates Rose, it sends a message that outcome is a distant second to show. It pushes real baseball to the underground, to the schools and the minor leagues. Like I said, you really don’t want to get me started on this one. Go read Derek Zumsteg’s article. Then go read the Dowd Report. I gotta warn you, though, it ain’t pretty.

Almost forgot; I’ve posted the Xavier Nady report. Jake Peavy and Dennis Tankersley will be next, and I should be putting those up within the next couple weeks or so. Enjoy!

Zeile vs Hampton

Not much time today, so I’ll just throw out a couple of fun stat lines. Guess who these guys are; answer tomorrow.

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
Player A 390 46 104 20 1 6 45 47 74 .267 .351 .369
Player B 63 17 19 1 0 7 13 1 14 .302 .312 .651

I’ll give you a hint. Player A is a starting big-league first baseman; Player B is a big-leaguer who doesn’t play every day.

Eaton Out for Season, Nevin Balks at Moving to Second

  • Uh-oh. Adam Eaton faces reconstructive elbow surgery that will sideline him for the remainder of 2001 and all of 2002. He’s going to get a second opinion but this doesn’t look good at all.
  • Phil Nevin isn’t so sure about his proposed move to second base. If he doesn’t, with the recent acquisition of Ray Lankford, Nevin would probably move to first, Ryan Klesko to left, leaving a Lankford/Bubba Trammell platoon in right. Basically it would allow Damian Jackson to keep his job at the expense of Trammell’s. More defense, less offense.
  • Finally, I’ve thrown together a little study called Where Do Aces Come From which you may find interesting. It’s not exactly comprehensive but it should get you thinking a little. I hope. :-)

Bullet Points

Bullet points today.

  • U-T reports that Phil Nevin will be working out at second base this off-season in an attempt to accommodate Sean Burroughs. Now that would be interesting. Nevin definitely isn’t your stereotypical middle infielder, but knowing how hard he’s worked to get where he is now, I wouldn’t be surprised if he can do it.
  • Southpaw Mark Phillips has been promoted to Lake Elsinore, which likely is where he’ll begin next season. From there, he could move very quickly.
  • Not related to baseball per se, but rather to this site. I’m working on a new design which hopefully you will find a little more visually enticing than the current one. It’s a pretty radical departure from anything I’ve done, so we’ll see how it goes. I’m even working on a new logo. There may be some slight changes to the structure of the site, too, but if anything, it will be easier than before to navigate. I expect to have the design finished within the next few weeks; then I’ll need to convert all the pages. Probably you’ll start seeing changes sometime in September.

2001 Padres Draftee Update

Quick update on how 2001 Padres draftees are doing. Bozied hasn’t signed; neither, as far as I can tell, has Brown, who apparently is playing in the Cape Cod League, a collegiate summer league.

Rd Player Pos Lvl AB BA OBP SLG BB SO SB CS E
1 Jake Gautreau* 3B A- 91 .297 368 .505 10 23 1 1 6
3 Taggert Bozied 3B IND 129 .333 .399 .504 8 22 1 2 8
4 Josh Barfield 2B/SS R+ 173 .289 .339 .387 12 29 8 1 12
5 Greg Sain 1B A- 157 .318 .366 .611 8 41 1 1 4
7 Doc Brooks OF A- 71 .254 .365 .549 9 32 2 1 1
9 Jon Benick# 1B A- 136 .272 .329 .456 12 28 0 0 5
11 Marcus Nettles* OF A- 96 .271 .364 .281 12 25 14 5 4
12 Jordan Pickens OF R+ 96 .281 .355 .552 8 30 0 0 1
13 Jason Bartlett SS A- 159 .340 .425 .465 22 22 8 3 13
14 Josh Carter OF A- 86 .186 .220 .279 3 14 2 0 1
17 Trevor Brown C A- 37 .297 .449 .351 8 7 0 0 2
24 Joseph Hastings* 1B R+ 124 .339 .407 .589 15 32 1 1 2
26 Matthew Hellman OF A- 126 .246 .297 .365 10 23 1 2 0
31 Hunter Brown 3B CCL 139 .295 .404 .353 23 33 7 4 7


Rd Player Lvl IP H BB SO ERA
8 David Pauley R+ 44.1 57 14 30 6.29
10 Ben Fox* R+/A 23.2 33 15 21 7.99
16 Jon Brandt A- 12.0 13 4 12 3.00
19 Jason Anderegg IND/A- 54.0 51 21 42 3.67
21 Rusty Tucker* R+ 25.0 27 33 24 6.12
25 Scott Kelly* A- 35.0 36 14 45 4.11
34 Zachary Wykoff A- 18.1 32 11 17 10.31

*, left-handed; #, switch-hitter

Peavy Promoted to Moblie, Tankersley to Portland

Movement in the Padres organization. RHP Jake Peavy promoted to Double-A Mobile, RHP Dennis Tankersley promoted to Triple-A Portland, OF Jeremy Owens reassigned to Class-A Lake Elsinore, RHP Rick Guttormson reassigned to Mobile.

Jim Callis at Baseball America referred to Tankersley as the Pads’ #2 prospect behind Sean Burroughs in a recent chat. I listed him #3 in my Padres Top 25 Prospects report, behind Xavier Nady. Truth is, there’s a bit of a gap behind Burroughs. Nady, Tankersley, and Peavy are all fairly interchangeable in my mind. They are what John Sickels would probably refer to as B-plus/A-minus type prospects. At least two of the three should develop into big-league regulars, with one likely becoming an eventual All-Star.

This is a fun organization to watch.

Padres Waste Opportunities, Lose to Reds

Blue Jays released Joey Hamilton yesterday. They have nothing to show for Woody Williams. Pads have Ray Lankford. More about him in a bit. Braves designated Quilvio Veras for assignment a few days ago. They have nothing to show for Ryan Klesko. Padres have, well, Klesko. Gotta like that.

Frustrating game last night. Padres wasted numerous opportunities. A few comments. On the Reds’ side:

  • Jim Brower, the starting pitcher, showed much better stuff than I’d expected based on the numbers. Fastball in the 91-93 MPH range, changed speeds well. Spotty command but managed to work his way out of bases-loaded jams in the third and fifth without allowing a single run. Hit and ran the bases well, too.
  • Catcher Jason LaRue reminds me of Brad Ausmus behind the plate. Good footwork, smothers balls in the dirt. Didn’t get to see him throw. But when you’ve nailed 16 of the last 19 guys trying to steal, I guess teams don’t test you.
  • Right fielder Adam Dunn had trouble with anything off-speed or with movement. This is a similar problem J.D. Drew faced when he first arrived, and it’s very correctable, especially in a player so young. But right now, he should never see a fastball in the strike zone.
  • How is Dmitri Young not hitting 25-30 homers a year? The guy has a quick bat, and he looks pretty strong. He sure turned on a Kevin Jarvis pitch that was down and in, yanking it just inside the right-field foul pole. Something tells me we haven’t seen the best from him yet.

On the Pads’ side:

  • Ben Davis made a terrible baserunning blunder in the sixth to thwart a potentially big inning. With the Pads down 6-1, Bubba Trammell scored after being hit on the head by a LaRue throw while caught in a rundown. Unfortunately, Davis mistook third-base coach Tim Flannery’s “go” sign to Trammell as being for him and took a wide turn around the bag. Todd Walker alertly fired to Aaron Boone to nail him. It was an admittedly bizarre play but boy, that took the wind out of their sails.
  • Damian Jackson is completely miscast as a leadoff hitter. He had a couple nice at-bats where he worked the count and fouled some tough pitches off, but he consistently expands the strike zone way too much for a guy at the top of the order. He should really be in the #7 or #8 hole. Sure is fun to watch on defense, though. How many times have I said that?
  • Tough night for Phil Nevin. Bases loaded, two outs in the third, after a walk to Ryan Klekso, Nevin lines the first pitch right at Dunn to end the inning. Next at-bat, one out in the fifth, after Brower has walked the bases loaded, Nevin hammers an 0-1 offering down the right field line, just foul. Strike two. He ends up whiffing on a breaking ball way out of the strike zone, down and away.
  • Mixed bag for newcomer Ray Lankford. Made a nice running catch in left early in the game. Launched a towering shot to right leading off the fourth for his first homer as a Padre. Nice reception from the fans. Struck out after Nevin in the fifth to kill another potential rally. Looked like was moving pretty well in the outfield. Bat seemed a shade slow on pitches up in the zone, but he sure hammered Brower’s fastball down and in. Tony Gwynn has been studying videotape and is convinced he can fix whatever ails Lankford. This could end up being a sweet deal. We’ll see.
  • Kevin Jarvis surrendered consecutive homers to Dmitri Young, Jason LaRue, and Pokey Reese to start the sixth. That immediately followed Nevin’s foul blast in the bottom of the fifth. What could have been a 5-3 Padre lead quickly became a 6-1 Cincy lead.
  • Wascar Serrano had his slider working, which proved to be a double-edged sword. He made LaRue and Reese look silly but in the process plated two runs on wild pitches. Real live arm, though. I have a feeling he is going to be a significant part of the 2002 bullpen. Could be a Jose Paniagua type.

Finally, it was good to see the Tigers pick up Bryce Florie. I’m really pulling for that guy to make it back.

Padres Trade Williams to Cardinals for Lankford

I keep telling folks Ryan Klesko can hit lefties. Did you see that grand slam yesterday off Jeff Fassero? On a 1-2 pitch, no less. A thing of beauty…

Now, about the Woody Williams-Ray Lankford trade. I have to preface my comments by noting that when Kevin Towers dealt Joey Hamilton to the Blue Jays for Williams back in 1998, I was less than impressed. But Woody has pitched his heart out for the Padres the past 2 1/2 years. He’s not the most dominating guy in the world but he’s definitely a guy you want on your side. Whatever it takes to get the job done, he’ll do it. Great guy to have on a club. I’ll miss him a lot.

But, as we are all too aware these days, baseball is a business. Williams will be 35 next year, and there are many younger, cheaper alternatives within the organization to fill his spot in the rotation. I’m not saying that any of these guys will be as good as Williams — at least not in the short-term — but someone should be able to step up and take his place. Towers has a way of pulling pitchers out of thin air. Brian Tollberg? Kevin Jarvis?

When I hastily threw together my projected 2002 rotation, I neglected to mention several pitchers who will be in the competition for a back-end spot. The front two of Bobby Jones and Adam Eaton are the only real locks. After that, Jarvis will probably be there based on what he’s done this year — his ERA is high, mainly because he gives up a ton of homers, but his peripherals are pretty good. Then it’ll be Tollberg, Brian Lawrence, Carlton Loewer, Junior Herndon, Brett Jodie, and maybe Jason Middlebrook, Dennis Tankersley, Mike Bynum, or Wascar Serrano for the last two spots. Middlebrook and Serrano will also be candidates for the bullpen, and my suspicion is that Tankersley and Bynum will start the year at Portland. This will be a hotly contested battle next spring. If you put a gun to my head (please don’t), I’d say Loewer and one of Tollberg or Lawrence will get the final two spots. But a lot can change between now and Opening Day 2002.

Okay, so it’s pretty clear that, great competitor that he is, Woody Williams wasn’t going to be a big part of the puzzle in what figures to be another rebuilding year for the Pads next season. Which brings us to Lankford. I haven’t seen him play much, and I’m sure he must drive managers crazy with his ridiculous strikeout numbers, but the guy is still reasonably productive, especially when he doesn’t have to face lefties. Like Williams, Lankford will be 35 next year. So, again, he’s not a real big player in terms of the future. But he’s a nice stop-gap solution until the Pads can figure out what to do with their various third basemen (presumably one or more will move to the outfield eventually).

And as stop-gaps go, Lankford’s not a bad guy to have on a ballclub. Especially when it means less playing time for someone like Mike Darr, who is turning into Eric Owens lite, if you can believe such a thing exists. I like Darr, but as a fourth or fifth outfielder, not a regular. As long as it doesn’t mean sitting Bubba Trammell, who clearly has earned a shot to continue starting next year, I prefer seeing the Padres go into 2002 with Lankford and one of the kids at the back of the rotation than Darr and Williams.

It’s a close call, but what it really comes down to, and what I suspect ultimately swayed Towers and company, is the Padres are more well stocked in the high minors with pitchers than with outfielders. Lankford fills a more pressing need than Williams would have. He’s not great but he will provide the second lefty slugger that the Padres have coveted since the aborted Phil Nevin for Jeromy Burnitz trade. And I’m pretty comfortable in saying that the gap between Lankford and Burnitz will be significantly less than that between Williams and Nevin.

Unless, of course, Lankford really is washed up, in which case all bets are off…

Williams Departs, Herndon Arrives

Woody’s gone. Shipped to St. Louis for Ray Lankford and $2.8 million. Read more at ESPN.com.

Woody’s replacement, Junior Herndon, has allowed no runs on three hits through five innings so far in his big-league debut. Pads also picked up Bobby Jones’ option for next year and added a club option for 2003.

An early look at the 2002 lineup:

  1. Damian Jackson 2b
  2. Mark Kotsay cf
  3. Ryan Klesko 1b
  4. Phil Nevin 3b
  5. Ray Lankford lf
  6. Bubba Trammell rf
  7. Ben Davis c
  8. D’Angelo Jimenez ss

And the rotation:

  1. Bobby Jones
  2. Adam Eaton
  3. Brian Lawrence
  4. Brian Tollberg
  5. Junior Herndon

More on the deal later…

Padres Trade Rumors

More trade analysis: Jayson Stark, ESPN.

Closer to home, The U-T this morning reports that the Padres are still working on a potential deal with St. Louis for disgruntled outfielder Ray Lankford. Personally, I don’t believe taking away playing time from Bubba Trammell to accommodate a 34-year-old expensive malcontent is such a hot idea.

Apparently the Pads also turned down an offer from the Reds of Dmitri Young and Ben Broussard for Phil Nevin. Talentwise, at least that’s reasonable. I think Broussard is going to be a stud hitter, in the Brian Giles mode. As much as I like Nevin, I would have been very tempted to pull the trigger on this one.

David Lundquist made it to San Diego but never was activated, so he headed back to Portland. Brian Lawrence got the call to replace David Lee instead, and started last night. Brian Tollberg will be recalled to take Sterling Hitchcock’s spot in the rotation. Presumably the Padres didn’t want to knock someone off the 40-man-roster to make room for Lundquist.

Junior Herndon, Carlton Loewer, and Jason Middlebrook are next in line for promotion, with Mike Bynum and Dennis Tankersley close behind them.